Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[carefulsum]

8 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

Thank you, as i suspected that One has a nice spine.

Also has no Grader's Notes...very clean copy.

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 10/25/2018 at 2:30 PM, drbanner said:

Yep, looks like the plateau is in on this book. To see the future of prices of books like Hulk 181, one only has to look at what happened to prices of Hulk 1 and Fantasy 15 after their huge run-ups - not much. The rate of increase is simply not sustainable and I have to wonder how many of these sales are made to dealers, pressers, and flippers who will get out if the book isn't increasing 10% every few months like it has been the last couple of years.

When a NM copy costs as much as a decent used car, it's time to sell and buy a decent used car instead.

I respectfully disagree when we buy a used car it loses10 percent of it's value when we drive it off the lot. When we buy Hulk #181s they won't overnight lose 10 percent of their value like a car.

2. Expect another big bump when the X-Men and Wolverine get announced as new movies and appearances in Kevin Feige`s Marvel Cinematic Universe.

source about cars:

https://buzzdrives.com/20-cars-that-are-plummeting-in-value-3/

Car depreciation is a source of intense consternation when purchasing a new or used vehicle. All cars lose their value, and this process begins sharply. The average new car loses approximately 10 percent of its value as soon as it’s driven off the dealer’s lot. At the end of the first year, the car will lose an additional 10 percent on average – and often much more.

Edited December 25, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[Kevin76]

1 hour ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I respectfully disagree when we buy a used car it loses10 percent of it's value when we drive it off the lot. When we buy Hulk #181s they won't overnight lose 10 percent of their value like a car.

2. Expect another big bump when the X-Men and Wolverine get announced as new movies and appearances in Kevin Feige`s Marvel Cinematic Universe.

source about cars:

https://buzzdrives.com/20-cars-that-are-plummeting-in-value-3/

Car depreciation is a source of intense consternation when purchasing a new or used vehicle. All cars lose their value, and this process begins sharply. The average new car loses approximately 10 percent of its value as soon as it’s driven off the dealer’s lot. At the end of the first year, the car will lose an additional 10 percent on average – and often much more.

Exactly. Selling a rising asset to buy a liability is what separates the poor from the rich. 

[drbanner]

On 12/24/2018 at 11:00 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

I respectfully disagree when we buy a used car it loses10 percent of it's value when we drive it off the lot. When we buy Hulk #181s they won't overnight lose 10 percent of their value like a car.

2. Expect another big bump when the X-Men and Wolverine get announced as new movies and appearances in Kevin Feige`s Marvel Cinematic Universe.

source about cars:

https://buzzdrives.com/20-cars-that-are-plummeting-in-value-3/

Car depreciation is a source of intense consternation when purchasing a new or used vehicle. All cars lose their value, and this process begins sharply. The average new car loses approximately 10 percent of its value as soon as it’s driven off the dealer’s lot. At the end of the first year, the car will lose an additional 10 percent on average – and often much more.

LOL, I’m not suggesting anyone invest in a used car but rather the outlandish price of the book currently. I’m guessing we’ll never see another runup on this book like we saw this year.

[mattn792]

3 hours ago, drbanner said:

LOL, I’m not suggesting anyone invest in a used car but rather the outlandish price of the book currently. I’m guessing we’ll never see another runup on this book like we saw this year.

Based upon what?  Also, what exactly makes the price outlandish?  People out there are paying seven figures for bottles of whiskey that they'll probably never open, let alone drink, and a mid-grade 181 can still be had for under $3 grand at the current time.  Certainly doesn't seem like the common man is going to be priced out of the 181 market any time soon.

And if you want to point to the 9.8s, just about anyone who can afford to drop $30 grand on a comic book is probably not in a position where they're juggling a one or the other purchase proposition of car vs comic.  The best judge of value on pretty much anything is what another is willing to pay for it.  The market would appear to have spoken.

[namisgr]

5 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

Based upon what? 

On the 392 unrestored copies in the CGC census graded 9.6 or higher, and the even greater number graded 9.4?

Edited December 26, 2018 by namisgr

[mattn792]

3 minutes ago, namisgr said:

On the 392 unrestored copies in the CGC census graded 9.6 or higher, and the even greater number graded 9.4?

- How many are currently available for sale?
  - Of which, how many are priced at a point we'd all agree is outlandish (e.g. how available is it really)?  Many are certainly priced absurdly high at the moment, mostly Stan Lee SS copies.
  - How will availability be going forward?

- How accurate is the census (re-subs, signed former Universals, even potentially destroyed copies ,  etc.)?

- What happens if (when?) the X-Men blow up to Avengers level hype?

We could what if it to death, but if we're betting one way or another in regards to if 181 has significantly more room to run in the future, I'd be betting yes.

[namisgr]

I understand your thought on future pricing of the book.  We just don't agree that this book has significantly more room to run in the future, at least the next couple of years.

[namisgr]

On 12/25/2018 at 12:30 AM, Kevin76 said:

Exactly. Selling a rising asset to buy a liability is what separates the poor from the rich. 

What separates the poor from the rich the vast majority of the time is their income.

 

Edited December 26, 2018 by namisgr

[MGsimba77]

4 hours ago, mattn792 said:

Of which, how many are priced at a point we'd all agree is outlandish (e.g. how available is it really)?  Many are certainly priced absurdly high at the moment, mostly Stan Lee SS copies.
  - How will availability be going forward?

Exactly! It's been gone over here time after time, that number is inflated.

The fact that the increase has been very steady since 2012 without any catalyst is a more meaningful valuation increase.

I'm not sure how people can conclude it's potential is limited with the possibility of the MCU rebooting X-Men or even better a Hulk v Wolve recreation hanging out there?  Hopefully it'll be done with a decent actor wearing a costume that actually looks like wolverine instead of a white tank top... for a change 

[I am not Glenda]

35 minutes ago, MGsimba77 said:

  Hopefully it'll be done with a decent actor wearing a costume that actually looks like wolverine instead of a white tank top... for a change 

1

Yea, been waiting for years for that yellow spandex to come back into vogue

[lou_fine]

On 12/26/2018 at 12:54 PM, MGsimba77 said:

On 12/26/2018 at 8:36 AM, mattn792 said:

Of which, how many are priced at a point we'd all agree is outlandish (e.g. how available is it really)?  Many are certainly priced absurdly high at the moment, mostly Stan Lee SS copies.
  - How will availability be going forward?

Exactly! It's been gone over here time after time, that number is inflated.

Is it really though?

Especially when the CGC census population does not account for the copies graded by the competing grading companies.  Most important of all though, it has not taken into account all of the HG raw copies that are still residing in private collections that have yet to be graded.  

[delekkerste]

 

On 12/26/2018 at 3:54 PM, MGsimba77 said:

I'm not sure how people can conclude it's potential is limited with the possibility of the MCU rebooting X-Men or even better a Hulk v Wolve recreation hanging out there?  Hopefully it'll be done with a decent actor wearing a costume that actually looks like wolverine instead of a white tank top... for a change 

Just playing devil's advocate here, but, maybe the character will never be as popular again after Hugh Jackman made it his own and became synonymous with the character in the minds of everyone from age 8 to 108?   

What are the chances that Marvel will cast someone else to succeed Jackman that is going to be bigger and better in the role?  Isn't there a real risk that they could not get it right? Not saying it's either good or bad, but, what if they made X-23 the next Wolverine?  Would that have people scrambling to pay up even more for Hulk #181, or, might they be clamoring for NYX #3 or All-New Wolverine #1 instead?  I don't follow comics enough to know, but, has the introduction of Spider-Gwen and related characters resulted in a big boost for ASM #31 (beyond all the other reasons why it should have gone up) or did it just create demand/speculation for the modern Spider-Gwen first appearance?  Asking for a friend who owns the first Gwen Stacy appearance original art from ASM #31.   

In any case, who is still buying Hulk #181 because of movie hype/speculation anyway.  

[mattn792]

16 minutes ago, szavisca said:

So does anyone yet suspect any sort of collusion here yet?  Obviously I have no evidence but I find the meteoric almost instantaneous rise on this book in all grades awfully suspicious.

Someone or some business entity worth a few hundred million could have been hoarding copies and then been driving up recent auction prices.  I mean even the 100 some odd 9.8s only add up to about 3-4 million in total value.

Is it pretty well established that all the recent 9.8s are going to different buyers or is it even possible to determine that?

 

Good luck determining who has bought which copies, but overall your theory is pretty tin foil hat level.  The rise wasn't "instantaneous", it played out over a span of like 18 months.

[mattn792]

1 minute ago, szavisca said:

I’ll take it that’s your impolite way of saying you don’t think it’s very plausible and/or you’re someone that just paid 3k for a 4.0...

Nope, it was 4k for a 3.0

[mattn792]

36 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, but, maybe the character will never be as popular again after Hugh Jackman made it his own and became synonymous with the character in the minds of everyone from age 8 to 108?   

What are the chances that Marvel will cast someone else to succeed Jackman that is going to be bigger and better in the role?  Isn't there a real risk that they could not get it right? Not saying it's either good or bad, but, what if they made X-23 the next Wolverine?  Would that have people scrambling to pay up even more for Hulk #181, or, might they be clamoring for NYX #3 or All-New Wolverine #1 instead?  I don't follow comics enough to know, but, has the introduction of Spider-Gwen and related characters resulted in a big boost for ASM #31 (beyond all the other reasons why it should have gone up) or did it just create demand/speculation for the modern Spider-Gwen first appearance?  Asking for a friend who owns the first Gwen Stacy appearance original art from ASM #31.   

In any case, who is still buying Hulk #181 because of movie hype/speculation anyway.  

Your premise is interesting.  How will Disney interpret the success of "Logan"?  Was it the best of the three solo movies (I honestly don't know as I didn't want to see it, but the bar wasn't really set all that high)?  Was it because it was rated R?  Did people just want to see little Wolverina run around screaming for 80 minutes?  Did they actually want to see the Jackman era end?  Things to ponder.

Finding someone to succeed Hugh Jackman is certainly a tall task, but I think they're up to it. 

[mattn792]

21 minutes ago, szavisca said:

I’ll take it that’s your impolite way of saying you don’t think it’s very plausible and/or you’re someone that just paid 3k for a 4.0...

 

19 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

Nope, it was 4k for a 3.0

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

[mattn792]

1 minute ago, szavisca said:

You wouldn’t need all of them or even close to all of them... just enough of the ones that have been getting flipped around.

Dunno what percentage of the 9.8s are locked up in PCs, and you’d probably make more money by having hoarded the innumerable low grade copies and selling those off.

Seems like it would be pretty easy for someone with the resources and patience.  I don’t think it’s a tin foil hat worthy suspicion, and it borders on naïveté to think no one would dare manipulate a market like this.

Ive heard reference to some historical effeorts of a few people to corner the market on a few SA keys in the 80s or 90s ... but I don’t recall the details.  Maybe someone who knows about that could give a few details on the story.

With a GA, maaaayyybeee an SA book, it might be possible, but there's simply too many 181s out there for someone to effectively corner the market on them.

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 hours ago, mattn792 said:

 

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

We've had several boardies old and new post their newest acquisitions of #181 in 9.8 right here on these boards. I remember at least 3 different boardies in the last year, hard to believe that there were too many more 9.8 sales other than those.....   

Edited January 11, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM
added "different"...that's important to add

[MGsimba77]

4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, but, maybe the character will never be as popular again after Hugh Jackman made it his own and became synonymous with the character in the minds of everyone from age 8 to 108?   

What are the chances that Marvel will cast someone else to succeed Jackman that is going to be bigger and better in the role?  Isn't there a real risk that they could not get it right? Not saying it's either good or bad, but, what if they made X-23 the next Wolverine?  Would that have people scrambling to pay up even more for Hulk #181, or, might they be clamoring for NYX #3 or All-New Wolverine #1 instead?  I don't follow comics enough to know, but, has the introduction of Spider-Gwen and related characters resulted in a big boost for ASM #31 (beyond all the other reasons why it should have gone up) or did it just create demand/speculation for the modern Spider-Gwen first appearance?  Asking for a friend who owns the first Gwen Stacy appearance original art from ASM #31.   

In any case, who is still buying Hulk #181 because of movie hype/speculation anyway.  

I think Jackman is responsible for providing a meteoric boost to the character so the chances of having an unsuccessful X-Men or wolverine centric movie are diminished IMHO. By the time Disney gets around to doing anything with X-Men (assuming they ever do) there'll be so much pent up demand it'll succeed in my view. A hulk v wolverine from MCU would blow the roof off no matter what, who or where!

I just think there are so many wolverine fans out there for the character to be able to sell itself as opposed to requiring an actor's ability to succeed. I have confidence in them casting a solid actor for this important role if they choose to do so. These casting directors/producers are professionals it's what they do for a living!!! Maybe the addition of some modern technology from the MCU that makes wolverine look like wolverine would help just a bit too?!

Doing anything with X-23 would be a waste of everyone's time IMHO. If they choose to feature X-23 at the expense of Logan wolverine it'll be cinematic malpractice. Don't think they're dumb enough to go there!

Anything with Spider Gwen would probably have zero impact on early Gwen Stacy appearances. Not really into the Spider Gwen character enough to render judgement on impact there

As for who's buying IH 181 due to movie hype?

No one.....Yet 

I don't think I implied anybody was. I was bringing up the possibility as an example of upward potential for the book down the road.