Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[alexgross.com]

6 hours ago, Darkowl said:

Hulk 181 continuing to go up in price wasn’t really what I was wondering. That’s something to be expected.

But the rate at which it has gone up recently is what’s baffling. 

Like I said, I sold my copy for about gpa (maybe a little higher), and within 4 months it has basically doubled in price. Unless I’m doing my math wrong, that seems pretty extreme to me.

a ridiculous number of keys have doubled or tripled in value in literally the last few weeks or months. there is no rational explanation for it. asm238 is suddenly selling for 4k-5k after being stuck under a grand forever. same thing with new mutants 98 at 3k now. asm129 had not budged in years, now it's more than doubled just this year alone. so, it's not just hulk 181. it's certainly not a sustainable rate of increase. everyone's speculating on the reasons for this, and hoping it's not some crazy bubble. it's a great time to sell, but not to buy. 

[Darkowl]

30 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

a ridiculous number of keys have doubled or tripled in value in literally the last few weeks or months. there is no rational explanation for it. asm238 is suddenly selling for 4k-5k after being stuck under a grand forever. same thing with new mutants 98 at 3k now. asm129 had not budged in years, now it's more than doubled just this year alone. so, it's not just hulk 181. it's certainly not a sustainable rate of increase. everyone's speculating on the reasons for this, and hoping it's not some crazy bubble. it's a great time to sell, but not to buy. 

This is exactly what I was thinking. I’ve been flipping comics for a very long time now, and I’ve never seen anything like this before, aside from a couple exceptions.

Only thing I can think of is that all these movies have created more flippers/sellers than what we used to see 5 to 10 years ago. More people are in the game creating a larger demand.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[ADAMANTIUM]

35 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

This is exactly what I was thinking. I’ve been flipping comics for a very long time now, and I’ve never seen anything like this before, aside from a couple exceptions.

Only thing I can think of is that all these movies have created more flippers/sellers than what we used to see 5 to 10 years ago. More people are in the game creating a larger demand.

Given that, do you still find stuff? Or is it all getting harder to find? 

[FormerReader]

37 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

This is exactly what I was thinking. I’ve been flipping comics for a very long time now, and I’ve never seen anything like this before, aside from a couple exceptions.

Only thing I can think of is that all these movies have created more flippers/sellers than what we used to see 5 to 10 years ago. More people are in the game creating a larger demand.

Everyone has their theories. Card collectors stimulus money, etc., but why since the end of December?

Stimulus money isn’t buying $10k books? The amount of dollar growth must be in the many $100,000’s. Maybe more. How does all this money pour into the market in such a short period of time? Even if some of the card market is speculating on comics, it’s not like they called all their friends and said starting January let’s poor all our money into comics.

This is a massive growth in the overall market. 

Again the question is why now? What has changed this year?

[MGsimba77]

2 minutes ago, FormerReader said:

but why since the end of December?

It can actually be traced back to maybe ~ late spring early summer last year. 

[tdotcbc84]

It is hedging on inflation.

So all these comics are being inflated as well.

Econ 102 here   (It's the next course after learning supply and demand)

We all know the US (and basically the whole world) is printing more money than ever.  Right now, holding cash MIGHT (just a theory) be the worst thing you can do.  If hyper inflations happens, you'll see the US Dollar value of these books go even HIGHER.

Someone who understands economics more than me might want to explain.

[Poekaymon]

2 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

a ridiculous number of keys have doubled or tripled in value in literally the last few weeks or months. there is no rational explanation for it. asm238 is suddenly selling for 4k-5k after being stuck under a grand forever. same thing with new mutants 98 at 3k now. asm129 had not budged in years, now it's more than doubled just this year alone. so, it's not just hulk 181. it's certainly not a sustainable rate of increase. everyone's speculating on the reasons for this, and hoping it's not some crazy bubble. it's a great time to sell, but not to buy. 

I agree with the summary, and with the general sentiment that we are in rare times, but I don't agree with the conclusion, at least not to H181 (and probably not ASM129.)  

NM98 and ASM238, on the other hand, I would sell.  And all kinds of other stuff like ASM 300, Star Wars #1, X-Men #4 (1991) #4, X-Men 266 which is extremely plentiful, and either involve middling chars or seem heavily movie/show dependently, and has still blown up recently.  (My money's where my mouth is--I have sold almost all of these recently.)  

But I really don't think it's fair to lump in H181 or even ASM129 with these books or with the broader market.  And I continue to hold these with no intention of selling.  Similarly, I don't own AF15 or Hulk 1, but I would consider buying them right now regardless of any broader market high.

  

 

[Darkowl]

2 hours ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

Given that, do you still find stuff? Or is it all getting harder to find? 

Harder. Way harder.

A lot of people  think their dreck is worth thousands just because all of these superhero movies are being made. People who know nothing about comics are being way more selective and have a much firmer hold onto their trash thinking it’s going to be the next Walking Dead or something. It’s insane. 

Another trend I’ve been seeing in the last couple years is that people don’t want you to cherry pick. It’s either buy all of their or move on.

I’ve also seen an incline in the amount of people pressing their own books, or at least trying to figure out how to properly do it. 

It’s not like any of that stuff didn’t exist before. It’s just that there’s way more people doing it now.

Things have changed.

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[Darkowl]

2 hours ago, FormerReader said:

Everyone has their theories. Card collectors stimulus money, etc., but why since the end of December?

Stimulus money isn’t buying $10k books? The amount of dollar growth must be in the many $100,000’s. Maybe more. How does all this money pour into the market in such a short period of time? Even if some of the card market is speculating on comics, it’s not like they called all their friends and said starting January let’s poor all our money into comics.

This is a massive growth in the overall market. 

Again the question is why now? What has changed this year?

Well, regarding Hulk 181, some rumors have been leaked that directly tie the upcoming Falcon and Winter Soldier series to Wolverine. People go nuts over this stuff (even if it is just a rumor), and might just be one possible explanation for it’s dramatic incline in value.

Does anyone remember when Peter Panzerfaust shot up in insane value all because of the rumor that it was going to be a tv show made by the same creators of Walking Dead? People desperately wanted the same kind of rare luck and value that Walking Dead 1 brought to the table that they were willing to pay a ridiculous amount for it. A 9.8 used to sell for around 1K. Now? Easily under $200. 

I could be dead wrong, but I think we may be seeing something similar with Hulk 181. The only difference is that Wolverine is already a household name, and everyone knows that Disney is going to take the character to the next level for years to come. It isn’t speculation at this point. It’s a guarantee.

If people thought that Wolverine was already popular, just wait until you see where his status is 5 years from now when Wolverine merch is being sold at Disneyland.

Yeah, people are going nuts for Hulk 181!

The funny thing is that I never thought this book was a risky buy. I always put all my chips in the pot for this one book. Every time. But after seeing this rapid inflation with no real explanation, I’m incredibly hesitant to have the same kind of faith in this book. 

Something feels off to me.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[Poekaymon]

1 hour ago, Darkowl said:

 

The funny thing is that I never thought this book was a risky buy. I always put all my chips in the pot for this one book. Every time. But after seeing this rapid inflation with no real explanation, I’m incredibly hesitant to have the same kind of faith in this book. 

Something feels off to me.

No grade of H181 has appreciated as much recently NM 98, Star Wars, ASM 300, ASM 238, X-Men 266, or any number of other way riskier things.  Not to mention all the Knull stuff, Miles Morales, etc.  I mean we are talking quadrupled or quintupled gains in lots of books.  H181 is downright conservative by comparison.

You can say that something feels off about the industry as a whole--nearly everyone agrees with that--but H181 is in no way stranger or more extreme than all those other books.  If anything, it's one of the least "feels off" books around. 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Poekaymon

[Darkowl]

50 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

No grade of H181 has appreciated as much recently NM 98, Star Wars, ASM 300, ASM 238, X-Men 266, or any number of other way riskier things.  Not to mention all the Knull stuff, Miles Morales, etc.  I mean we are talking quadrupled or quintupled gains in lots of books.  H181 is downright conservative by comparison.

You can say that something feels off about the industry as a whole--nearly everyone agrees with that--but H181 is in no way stranger or more extreme than all those other books.  If anything, it's one of the least "feels off" books around. 

I never singled out H181 as the only book that feels off in terms of inflation, but you do realize what thread this is, right?

I’m deliberately choosing to focus on this particular book, not any other book that may have experienced even higher inflation, though discussing the inflation for those other books may actually be beneficial when attempting to rationalize and explain the current market we’re in.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, Darkowl said:

6 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

a ridiculous number of keys have doubled or tripled in value in literally the last few weeks or months. there is no rational explanation for it. asm238 is suddenly selling for 4k-5k after being stuck under a grand forever. same thing with new mutants 98 at 3k now. asm129 had not budged in years, now it's more than doubled just this year alone. so, it's not just hulk 181. it's certainly not a sustainable rate of increase. everyone's speculating on the reasons for this, and hoping it's not some crazy bubble. it's a great time to sell, but not to buy. 

This is exactly what I was thinking. I’ve been flipping comics for a very long time now, and I’ve never seen anything like this before, aside from a couple exceptions.

Only thing I can think of is that all these movies have created more flippers/sellers than what we used to see 5 to 10 years ago. More people are in the game creating a larger demand.

 

4 hours ago, FormerReader said:

Everyone has their theories. Card collectors stimulus money, etc., but why since the end of December?

Stimulus money isn’t buying $10k books? The amount of dollar growth must be in the many $100,000’s. Maybe more. How does all this money pour into the market in such a short period of time? Even if some of the card market is speculating on comics, it’s not like they called all their friends and said starting January let’s poor all our money into comics.

This is a massive growth in the overall market. 

Again the question is why now? What has changed this year?

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

“There is no rational explanation for it.”

Sounds about right to me, so it’s interesting to at least attempt to dissect and analyze the chaos that shrouds the current market. 

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, tdotcbc84 said:

It is hedging on inflation.

So all these comics are being inflated as well.

Econ 102 here   (It's the next course after learning supply and demand)

We all know the US (and basically the whole world) is printing more money than ever.  Right now, holding cash MIGHT (just a theory) be the worst thing you can do.  If hyper inflations happens, you'll see the US Dollar value of these books go even HIGHER.

Someone who understands economics more than me might want to explain.

Nothing at all like the current NFT (i.e. non-fungible token) craze whereby investors are spending 6 and 7-figures on digital clips that you can download for free anytime you want.  

Perfect example being this Beeple NFT entitled Everydays - The First 5,000 Days purchased by some crypto investors for more than $69M:    

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/metapurse-beeple-virtual-art-usd-69-million-jpg-beeple-everydays-the-first-5000-days-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-nft-2394249

[Poekaymon]

3 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I never singled out H181 as the only book that feels off in terms of inflation, but you do realize what thread this is, right?

 

I know what thread we're in, thanks.  I was responding to exactly what you wrote.

6 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I’m incredibly hesitant to have the same kind of faith in this book.  [H181]

Something feels off to me.

My point was that I agree the entire market is "off," but much of it is "off" way more than H181, including all sorts of random stuff.  So I can understand avoiding that stuff, but if you're betting against H181 then you're just betting against the industry as a whole and you shouldn't "have faith" in any books whatsoever.  That's the part I'm disagreeing with--I would personally be fine picking up H181, and, say, AF15, Hulk 1, FF48, and the like, right now, regardless of any overall trends.

I also don't think it relies, at all, on Disney merch (have never seen anyone suggest that before) or any expansion of the character whatsoever.  That's exactly what separates it from all that other stuff I listed.  H181 was a hot book before the current craze which has seen minor characters and villains triple or quadruple or more in recent months. 

[ghn999]

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

[Poekaymon]

15 minutes ago, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

 

 

Fading is generally a bigger hit to higher graded books, so that a 3.5 wouldn't take that much of a hit, but that is quite severe.  I'd say it'd be lucky to get priced at 2.5, so I'd probably try for that.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Poekaymon

[Darkowl]

3 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

I know what thread we're in, thanks.  I was responding to exactly what you wrote.

My point was that I agree the entire market is "off," but much of it is "off" way more than H181, including all sorts of random stuff.  So I can understand avoiding that stuff, but if you're betting against H181 then you're just betting against the industry as a whole and you shouldn't "have faith" in any books whatsoever.  That's the part I'm disagreeing with--I would personally be fine picking up H181, and, say, AF15, Hulk 1, FF48, and the like, right now, regardless of any overall trends.

I also don't think it relies, at all, on Disney merch (have never seen anyone suggest that before) or any expansion of the character whatsoever.  That's exactly what separates it from all that other stuff I listed.  H181 was a hot book before the current craze which has seen minor characters and villains triple or quadruple or more in recent months. 

I wasn’t saying that Disney merch makes something popular, or relies on it to be popular. That wasn’t my point at all.

My point was that the merch you see in Disneyland gift shops usually reflects something that is really popular. Like I said, Wolverine is already a household name, and I can only imagine what new heights Disney will take this character.

The merch at Disneyland gift shops is just a small reflection of that. It’s not a defining point I was trying to make, so don’t read too deep into it.

And I never said I was betting against Hulk 181. I don’t have a crystal ball, and I have no idea what the future holds for the market, but considering the rapid inflation we’re seeing in the market (and yes it’s not just H181), I’m certainly not as a quick to bank on this particular book as I once was, or any other book that triples in value overnight.

And if the market does crash, H181 will probably take some sort of a hit a long with it. It’s not as invincible as the yellow masked anti-hero the book represents. 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[KCOComics]

6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

@lou_fine you've been around this hobby for a long long time.  Have you ever seen anything similar to this market? I can think of individual books going crazy for a stretch. AF15 and Hulk1 experienced massive growth very quickly years ago.  When it happened to Hulk 1, I remember saying to my brother it had experienced 40 years of growth in less than 1 year.  I really wanted that book and kept waiting for prices to return... I'm still waiting. 

I can't personally remember a time when so many big books have moved at this pace, as the same time.  

Can you speculate on where we go from here? The bubble bursts and we see a 10% to 30% correction? 

The movement maintains and these prices become the new norm? 

 

 

[Pantodude]

1 hour ago, KCOComics said:

Can you speculate on where we go from here?

Well, if you asked me, I'd say [paste formidably well-informed view here].  But you didn't, so . But here's a thought.  No one has mentioned this yet that I know of, but what if comic books, as liquid assets, have finally been recognized by entirely new regions of the world, like European and Asian and Arab investors?   We saw what happened when the Chinese and Arab upper crust dove into rare art.  That alone could explain the volatility with keys the past year.  And it could dwarf whatever impact we attribute to COVID boredom, unspent leisure cash, new collectors in this hobby, stimulus checks, sports card investors shifting to comics, etc.  Of course, I am talking about the big-boy-pants books now.  Does anyone actually know whether books are being bought for foreign accounts/addressess any more than in years past?   Any comic book  or auction site owners out there who can chime in?  

Edited March 21, 2021 by Pantodude