Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[alexgross.com]

19 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

i bought my first copy, a 9.0WP about 7 yrs ago for $2200. sold it about 3 years later for $7500. now i have two copies, an 8.0 and an 8.5, both have appreciated as well since i got them. not sure why you wouldnt think of spending 1k aside from the fact that you cant really get this book anymore at that price. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by www.alexgross.com

[Callaway29]

What goes up, does not always go up.

I appreciate enthusiasm, but I also appreciate tempered expectations...

[Poekaymon]

11 hours ago, lou_fine said:

No doubt there are tens of millions of millionaires throughout the entire world, but how many of them actually even want a copy of Hulk 181 regardless of the price?    

Heck, if you go by the strict definition of a millionaire, anybody that owns a house in this city is already by definition a millionaire.  As such, even though I am a long time comic book collector, I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

   the money, that is.     

Who said anything about "regardless of price"?  It's set by the market--not that complicated.  

And you do have a "locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly."  It's called literally any online auction house or forum, including the one you're on right now.  High grades have been over $1k for a long time now, so you missed out on a ton of profits, my man.  (By the way, if someone offered even like a 3.0 on here for 1k, it'd be gone so quickly you wouldn't even get a chance to pass on it.  Actually, I'm not even sure you can get a .5 anymore for under 1k.) 

 

[Poekaymon]

10 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

What goes up, does not always go up.

I appreciate enthusiasm, but I also appreciate tempered expectations...

While things don't necessarily "always go up," they don't always crash either.   I appreciate some negativity, but I also appreciate paying attention to data.  Every time this debate comes up, including 3 years ago when this thread started, the naysayers rely on gut instinct that "goshdarnit, things are just too expensive right now."  But the data, the cold hard emotionless data, always supports the opposite inference.  Things fluctuate, that's how the market works, but mega keys, like H181, have been rock solid over decades.  That is not "enthusiasm"--it's not even an opinion--it is fact.

How about this--let's try something new.  Please point to me any year, say in the last 20 or 30 years, that AF15 or H181 were actually worth less a few years later (let's call it 3 years later).  In other words, name for me just one time in the last 30 years where it actually would have made sense financially not to buy either book, and rather to wait three years to buy it under the principle that you need to temper expectations.  I can save you some research and tell you that there has never been such a time, but please fact check me and report back.   

Edited February 21, 2021 by Poekaymon

[october]

31 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

 

How about this--let's try something new.  Please point to me any year, say in the last 20 or 30 years, that AF15 or H181 were actually worth less a few years later (let's call it 3 years later).  In other words, name for me just one time in the last 30 years where it actually would have made sense financially not to buy either book, and rather to wait three years to buy it under the principle that you need to temper expectations.  I can save you some research and tell you that there has never been such a time, but please fact check me and report back.   

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to recover.

[Poekaymon]

8 minutes ago, october said:

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to recover.

Didn't see that, though I have only owned lower 9.xs.  Here's a good article about 9.0s against the stock market.  https://briandcolwell.com/dont-hold-dollars-hold-hulk-181/

So let's say you're right--I'm not going to try to verify it--and that 25k all-time high 9.8 sale, which then "cratered HARD," was back to in-the-money 6 years later and is now worth more than double.  That's not a very long timeframe where investments are concerned, and proves my overall point that over decades it has been solid.

[Poekaymon]

Here's something else to consider.  A lot of naysayers like to look at the max all-time high sale and then imagine some totally new buyer, in a vacuum, coming along and buying a single book--that all-time high priced book.  Then if it drops, that buyer lost money.  But I do not think that's even the most common scenario.

A lot of people, like myself, have had their collections increase so drastically that they have taken profits along the way, and have shifted some of their collection to older keys.  For example, last year I lucked into some Morales, Momoko, and Knull gains that were actually incredible (Like 500% on my money in a year--way more than H181 has gone up.).  But I'm not that bullish on moderns, and I took those gains and bought some silver/bronze keys (FF48, H181, Surfer 4).  My H181 is a 9.x.  And when I got it, it was at an all-time high (and has only continued to rise since).  Either way, it was paid for largely by profits from that other stuff.  That allows me to justify more (in my own mind) and also lets me not care if it drops.  I'm playing with house money.  And I argue a lot of other people are doing the same--at least as many as this hypothetical brand-new buyer.

[MGsimba77]

6 hours ago, october said:

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to

I think there was some census filling at the time. The rest of the grades stayed flat. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by MGsimba77

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

23 hours ago, lou_fine said:

As such, even though I am a long time comic book collector, I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

 

And you do have a "locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly."  It's called literally any online auction house or forum, including the one you're on right now.  High grades have been over $1k for a long time now, so you missed out on a ton of profits, my man.  (By the way, if someone offered even like a 3.0 on here for 1k, it'd be gone so quickly you wouldn't even get a chance to pass on it.  Actually, I'm not even sure you can get a .5 anymore for under 1k.) 

From a pure mathematical theoretical point of view, you are 100% right in that it's a guaranteed locked in profit if I buy a CGC 9.8 copy for only $1K. 

As I have noted in my comment above, my problem is that I tend to approach comics more from a long term collector's point of view and as such, if I buy a comic book, it's really intended for my own personal collection.  I have never thought of purchasing a comic book and then doing an immediate flip on it make money on it because that would then seem more like work and hence take the fun out of it.  

With comics, I really see it more as a hobby which I enjoy and have fun with, and if it happens to go up in value over time while I own it, then that's just an extra bonus for me.  

 

[rexinnih]

When I checked in December, my beloved 6.5 that I remember saving $20 to buy at a comic con when I was a kid had broken the $3K barrier. I was curious and just checked Ebay and now it has cracked the $4K barrier. I'm getting scared to handle some of my comics now. 

[Poekaymon]

16 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

From a pure mathematical theoretical point of view, you are 100% right in that it's a guaranteed locked in profit if I buy a CGC 9.8 copy for only $1K. 

As I have noted in my comment above, my problem is that I tend to approach comics more from a long term collector's point of view and as such, if I buy a comic book, it's really intended for my own personal collection.  I have never thought of purchasing a comic book and then doing an immediate flip on it make money on it because that would then seem more like work and hence take the fun out of it.  

With comics, I really see it more as a hobby which I enjoy and have fun with, and if it happens to go up in value over time while I own it, then that's just an extra bonus for me.  

 

I mean if you want to keep moving the goalposts.  Point is, you can flip it, or you can hold it long term.  The data show that it does appreciate over a long (decades) timeline.  If you just want to say that you don't like the book, then what can I say but:  ok!  

[lou_fine]

On 2/20/2021 at 9:23 PM, www.alexgross.com said:

On 2/20/2021 at 9:03 PM, lou_fine said:

I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

i bought my first copy, a 9.0WP about 7 yrs ago for $2200. sold it about 3 years later for $7500. now i have two copies, an 8.0 and an 8.5, both have appreciated as well since i got them. not sure why you wouldnt think of spending 1k aside from the fact that you cant really get this book anymore at that price. 

Well, to tell you the honest truth, I already have a copy of Hulk 181 which I picked up some 40 odd years ago for what I thought was then an outrageous price of $5.  Was down at the local con back then and the dealer had it as part of his wall display and was seriously thinking of handing it back to him since he was asking both above guide for the book and also not refusing to come down on his price, but the book was just too nice to turn down since I must have been a Byrne/Austin X-Men fan back then or else I never would have even bothered to look at a Hulk 181 in the first place.   

Since I am really more of a GA collector at this point in time and have been for the last 30 years or so, I would have to admit that I zero interest in looking for any Marvel related books since they are so readily available and really nothing more than being willing to open up your wallet if you want any Marvel book at all.  Although I don't remember ever spending anywhere close to more than double digits on a Marvel book, I will admit that my biggest regret and one I that I still think about every now and then was turning down an uber HG set of Spidey 2 through 10 for only $1K near the end of the 80's just before the Marvel SA books took off after spending the good part of the 80's going absolutely nowhere except slightly down in valuation.   Sigh......double sigh.............all those key super villians first appearances and also in grade to boot!!!    

I guess I must be at that old timer stage  of my collecting life cycle where I just get so much more fun and enjoyment out of being able to find the much HTF Centaur books or Fox books which have only a handful of copies slabbed to date, as opposed to chasing down relatively common books which already have thousands of copies slabbed to date.  I guess it's really a case of to each, their own as long as we all enjoy what we are getting out of our comic book purchases. 

For me at least, it makes it really fast to go through the auction listings from the various auction houses nowadays since I simply skip through anything that's from Marvel and pretty much also anything from DC.    

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by lou_fine

[KCOComics]

On 2/21/2021 at 1:23 AM, Callaway29 said:

What goes up, does not always go up.

I appreciate enthusiasm, but I also appreciate tempered expectations...

Everyone should heed this advice all over the hobby right now. 

We are in an extraordinary bubble right now. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. 

 

[MisterX]

Gary Dolgoff Comics just sold a 9.0 OW/W for $8200 last night!

Incredible Hulk 181 (CGC 9.0) OW/W pages; 1st full app. Wolverine; 1974 (j#4434) | eBay

This is crazy. Who's buying these books at such high prices??

 

[Randall Ries]

5 minutes ago, MisterX said:

Gary Dolgoff Comics just sold a 9.0 OW/W for $8200 last night!

Incredible Hulk 181 (CGC 9.0) OW/W pages; 1st full app. Wolverine; 1974 (j#4434) | eBay

This is crazy. Who's buying these books at such high prices??

 

It doesn't seem to be just this book. Looks like "values" are up for just about everything right now. Hmm. The only way we will see prices fall at this point is if I try to sell some of my books.

"Why, yes! I sold my 7.0 copy of All Star Comics #7 1st Superman-Batman meeting for $100! The market 'corrected' itself." See. It only does that when I try to sell. Soon's I stop, it'll inflate again.

[BrntWS6]

I distinctly remember this because I always kick myself for not buying it.  But in 1991 there was a hulk 181 on the shelf and my comic shop for $50.  It was in good shape, probably in the 9.4 range or higher.   But I could not afford it at 16.  So yeah, they have been expensive for awhile.

[JTD]

1 hour ago, BrntWS6 said:

I distinctly remember this because I always kick myself for not buying it.  But in 1991 there was a hulk 181 on the shelf and my comic shop for $50.  It was in good shape, probably in the 9.4 range or higher.   But I could not afford it at 16.  So yeah, they have been expensive for awhile.

I bought mine in 1985 at Lone Star comics in Arlington,Tx...paid $32 for it and had to think about it...a lot of money for a 16 year old...

[BrntWS6]

1 hour ago, JTD said:

I bought mine in 1985 at Lone Star comics in Arlington,Tx...paid $32 for it and had to think about it...a lot of money for a 16 year old...

It sure is....my job paid $3.25/hr then....lol.

[KCOComics]

I bought mine at a NYC convention in 1999 or so for $260. 

 

[LDarkseid1]

17 hours ago, KCOComics said:

Everyone should heed this advice all over the hobby right now. 

We are in an extraordinary bubble right now. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. 

 

Ehhh I don’t know man. I’ve heard the bubble talk going on 10 years now. I mean literally year after year, we’re in a bubble lol. I get prices are spiking like insanity, but I just think this mysterious bubble is more people wanting to believe it has to exist, because how could stuff go up this much. I think collectors, investors and people in general have simply discovered how special comics are to pop culture and they sell strong. So my feelings are the market will stay strong, I mean maybe a price correction. I know that’s happened on some books, but even then they’ve recovered and gone back up. I guess only time will tell.