Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[Conan_Aficionado]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

 

so as long as the China doesn't dump all our debt they hold in the open market, we're ok?

[october]

$11,000 a square foot? That boggles the mind. My current house would convert to a Manhattan broom closet.

 

Whoops, I see that Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev paid $13,000/square foot in 2012 when he bought a condo at 15 CPW for his daughter. Bozhe-moi!!

 

Obviously, that's an extreme outlier, but there have been other sales in the $9-11K/square foot range, and the average for new construction these days is about $2K/square foot, with more and more new projects coming in well above that (like the $3-4K/square foot being asked by The Greenwich Lane, the condos/townhouses on the old St. Vincent's Hospital site, that I linked to above).

 

It's unbelievable to me that wages there can sustain so much seven figure plus condo development. Not everyone can be a cardiologist, a law firm partner, or a hedge fund manager....or maybe they can in NYC?

[The Less Blob]

Not everyone can be a cardiologist, a law firm partner,

---------------

 

Many of them cannot buy these places either, at least not places big enough to house 3 kids let's say and have a room for comics.

[N/A]

Anyone have a timeline on the housing market? Canada just opened more money for buyers. Way to keep pushing the peak.

[Sqeggs]

$11,000 a square foot? That boggles the mind. My current house would convert to a Manhattan broom closet.

 

Whoops, I see that Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev paid $13,000/square foot in 2012 when he bought a condo at 15 CPW for his daughter. Bozhe-moi!!

 

Obviously, that's an extreme outlier, but there have been other sales in the $9-11K/square foot range, and the average for new construction these days is about $2K/square foot, with more and more new projects coming in well above that (like the $3-4K/square foot being asked by The Greenwich Lane, the condos/townhouses on the old St. Vincent's Hospital site, that I linked to above).

 

It's unbelievable to me that wages there can sustain so much seven figure plus condo development. Not everyone can be a cardiologist, a law firm partner, or a hedge fund manager....or maybe they can in NYC?

 

It's mostly comic dealers.

 

There are ordinary folk who bought in -- or their parents bought in -- long enough ago that prices in Manhattan were a stretch, but not insane. Years ago there were opportunities when some buildings were converted from rentals to condos. Selling and trading up is an option for people in this position. One way or another, there are a lot of non-wealthy people who manage to swing low seven figure purchases.

 

The top end, of course, is dominated by the wealthy.

[The Less Blob]

It's mostly comic dealers.

 

There are ordinary folk who bought in -- or their parents bought in -- long enough ago that prices in Manhattan were a stretch, but not insane. Years ago there were opportunities when some buildings were converted from rentals to condos. Selling and trading up is an option for people in this position. One way or another, there are a lot of non-wealthy people who manage to swing low seven figure purchases.

 

The top end, of course, is dominated by the wealthy.

 

-------------

 

There is definitely some truth to that. A friend's parents bought a brownstone just off of central park west on 70th street in 1970 for $50,000. at the time dad was a youngish architect, not making huge money, probably got some help buying it from parents and inlaws. this is what a house in the burbs would have cost that is now worth $600-$900K. it would not surprise me if it was worth $10 million now as one half a mile away on a less desirable block (but nicely renovated) is on the market for $11.5. my parents could have bought a brownstone for very little in the 60s, but decided it was "too much work." why were you guys so frigging lazy!??!?!?!

[lou_fine]

Are there any single family detached housing in the NYC ares surrounding Manhattan, and if so, what have their pricing valuations been like?

-------------

 

I live in a single family detached home in Brooklyn. I have about a 35 minute train ride to Wall Street/the courts in Manhattan. I have a yard and a driveway (the lot is only 40 X 100, but some in my area are 60X100 or more). Prices are up about 50% since when I bought at the end of 2006. Prices never really dropped more than 5% below what I paid even during the recession (although that was probably 15% below the peak in 2007/2008).

 

 

Although 50% is nothing to sniff at compared to some of the other depressed markets in the USA, it sounds as though your percentage gain could have been higher if you had stayed with the condo market in Manhattan. Like Gene says though, that is a completely different market and lifestyle that is unique unto itself. Always nice to own a piece of land with a front lawn and back yard, even though it is more work.

 

Looks like the property values in my city have gone up by almost 150% from 2005 through to 2014, and looks headed for another 20% or 30%+ gain in 2015 over last year's assessment based on the selling prices that we are seeing so far for this year. Unless of course, the market corrects itself before then. But I don't think we'll be that lucky here.

 

Good to be a homeowner right now, but not so good if you are part of the younger generation that's just starting out and trying to buy a house at the same time. It's hard to come up with a million dollars for a starter home on the poor side of town unless you have a nice copy of Action Comics #1 to sell.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

 

so as long as the China doesn't dump all our debt they hold in the open market, we're ok?

It`s much more than just China that the USA owes debt to.

[ComicConnoisseur]

$11,000 a square foot? That boggles the mind. My current house would convert to a Manhattan broom closet.

 

Whoops, I see that Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev paid $13,000/square foot in 2012 when he bought a condo at 15 CPW for his daughter. Bozhe-moi!!

 

Obviously, that's an extreme outlier, but there have been other sales in the $9-11K/square foot range, and the average for new construction these days is about $2K/square foot, with more and more new projects coming in well above that (like the $3-4K/square foot being asked by The Greenwich Lane, the condos/townhouses on the old St. Vincent's Hospital site, that I linked to above).

 

It's unbelievable to me that wages there can sustain so much seven figure plus condo development. Not everyone can be a cardiologist, a law firm partner, or a hedge fund manager....or maybe they can in NYC?

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

[Conan_Aficionado]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

 

so as long as the China doesn't dump all our debt they hold in the open market, we're ok?

It`s much more than just China that the USA owes debt to.

 

And I suppose it would be good to hold some us gov in debt with the rally in the dollar....ka-ching...ka-ching!!!

[Aman619]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

One other reason why condos are preferred over co-ops is because co-op boards do an invasive full body cavity search of your financial qualifications, something that many wealthy people are not keen on. With condos, many wealthy foreigners just set up an LLC and buy them anonymously. NYC real estate has become the new Swiss bank account or safety deposit box equivalent for the global elite. :doh:

 

Yes. And a high percentage of the ten million dollar plus condos in NYC are unoccupied 11 months out of the year. There really aren't that many of them ... Thousands maybe, and with the increasing number of billionaires and high hundred millionaires globally, the supply/demand equation works for the builders.

[roulette44]

It has always boggles my mind how expensive midtown Manhattan is compared to the rest of the country, especially the south!

 

Buying in the best school district on a meaningful parcel of land, with a pool/spa and inside an exclusive community -- in at $130/sqft. Atlanta is definitely one of the markets that seems unrealistically cheap. Even compared to other southern markets like Nashville (where the best suburbs might cost 180-220/ft.

 

But, living in NY gives one access to a different kind of life. The action, accessibility, culture, diversity, etc. that's worth a premium to many, and it's a big one!

 

Because so many foreigners park some of their real estate money in the U.S., we're talking about a disproportionally wealthy group. To them, paying $11k/ft for some condo in midtown is analogous to buying a small island off the pacific for $50M

 

By the way, isn't Hong Kong up there in price per foot real estate? The average size place is much smaller, so maybe the opposite measurement problem to what was discussed earlier on NY vs SF?

[Bronty]

Hk is up there. Tokyo too

[delekkerste]

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

 

I can see NYC real estate going down, but not because of globalization. Globalization has, to date, been a huge boon to NYC, as it has attracted wealthy buyers from all over the world. London has benefited similarly. While it's possible that these locations could lose their appeal over the next 10 to 20 years, I think it's very unlikely that this would occur because of competition from new emerging meccas, but rather due to unfavorable changes in property taxation, an increase in crime or terrorism, chronically bad local economies and related knock-on effects, etc. As for real estate prices, any number of things could cause the air to leak out of these inflated values that have nothing to do with NYC losing its inherent appeal/desirability.

[tth2]

$11,000 a square foot? That boggles the mind. My current house would convert to a Manhattan broom closet.

 

Whoops, I see that Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev paid $13,000/square foot in 2012 when he bought a condo at 15 CPW for his daughter. Bozhe-moi!!

 

Obviously, that's an extreme outlier, but there have been other sales in the $9-11K/square foot range, and the average for new construction these days is about $2K/square foot, with more and more new projects coming in well above that (like the $3-4K/square foot being asked by The Greenwich Lane, the condos/townhouses on the old St. Vincent's Hospital site, that I linked to above).

 

It's unbelievable to me that wages there can sustain so much seven figure plus condo development. Not everyone can be a cardiologist, a law firm partner, or a hedge fund manager....or maybe they can in NYC?

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

Just the opposite. Globalization results in more foreigners getting wealthy and having funds to buy properties in NYC and the other major financial and cultural capitals of the world.

 

[tth2]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

One other reason why condos are preferred over co-ops is because co-op boards do an invasive full body cavity search of your financial qualifications, something that many wealthy people are not keen on. With condos, many wealthy foreigners just set up an LLC and buy them anonymously. NYC real estate has become the new Swiss bank account or safety deposit box equivalent for the global elite. :doh:

 

Yes. And a high percentage of the ten million dollar plus condos in NYC are unoccupied 11 months out of the year. There really aren't that many of them ... Thousands maybe, and with the increasing number of billionaires and high hundred millionaires globally, the supply/demand equation works for the builders.

Exactly.

[tth2]

By the way, isn't Hong Kong up there in price per foot real estate? The average size place is much smaller, so maybe the opposite measurement problem to what was discussed earlier on NY vs SF?

We`re MORE expensive.

 

Although the tidal wave of mainland Chinese money has slowed down somewhat thanks to the Chinese government`s crackdown on corruption.

[Aman619]

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

 

I can see NYC real estate going down, but not because of globalization. Globalization has, to date, been a huge boon to NYC, as it has attracted wealthy buyers from all over the world. London has benefited similarly. While it's possible that these locations could lose their appeal over the next 10 to 20 years, I think it's very unlikely that this would occur because of competition from new emerging meccas, but rather due to unfavorable changes in property taxation, an increase in crime or terrorism, chronically bad local economies and related knock-on effects, etc. As for real estate prices, any number of things could cause the air to leak out of these inflated values that have nothing to do with NYC losing its inherent appeal/desirability.

 

it will be interesting to see which cities suffer the most from rising sea levels in the next 20-40 years. There will be some big losers, though I am confident NYC will spend whatever it takes to keep the water at bay.

 

I was watching AI again recently… are there any predictions that NYC could ever bee 30 stories underwater?? thats a heck of a lot of H2O worldwide. Does EVERY drop of ice and snow worldwide melt into 30 stories deep around the globe? can't be physically possible, politics aside!

[Peter G]

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

 

I can see NYC real estate going down, but not because of globalization. Globalization has, to date, been a huge boon to NYC, as it has attracted wealthy buyers from all over the world. London has benefited similarly. While it's possible that these locations could lose their appeal over the next 10 to 20 years, I think it's very unlikely that this would occur because of competition from new emerging meccas, but rather due to unfavorable changes in property taxation, an increase in crime or terrorism, chronically bad local economies and related knock-on effects, etc. As for real estate prices, any number of things could cause the air to leak out of these inflated values that have nothing to do with NYC losing its inherent appeal/desirability.

 

it will be interesting to see which cities suffer the most from rising sea levels in the next 20-40 years. There will be some big losers, though I am confident NYC will spend whatever it takes to keep the water at bay.

 

I was watching AI again recently… are there any predictions that NYC could ever bee 30 stories underwater?? thats a heck of a lot of H2O worldwide. Does EVERY drop of ice and snow worldwide melt into 30 stories deep around the globe? can't be physically possible, politics aside!

 

Hogwash and Propaganda

[tth2]

With Globalization taking over I would expect the New York real estate market to go down in value in the next 10 to 20 years.

 

New York which has been the mecca since the 20th century will lose it`s importance to new emerging meccas over the upcoming years.

 

Don`t get me wrong, as NY will still have some importance. It just won`t be the go to place like it has all these years because of Globalization.

Things change.

 

I can see NYC real estate going down, but not because of globalization. Globalization has, to date, been a huge boon to NYC, as it has attracted wealthy buyers from all over the world. London has benefited similarly. While it's possible that these locations could lose their appeal over the next 10 to 20 years, I think it's very unlikely that this would occur because of competition from new emerging meccas, but rather due to unfavorable changes in property taxation, an increase in crime or terrorism, chronically bad local economies and related knock-on effects, etc. As for real estate prices, any number of things could cause the air to leak out of these inflated values that have nothing to do with NYC losing its inherent appeal/desirability.

 

it will be interesting to see which cities suffer the most from rising sea levels in the next 20-40 years. There will be some big losers, though I am confident NYC will spend whatever it takes to keep the water at bay.

 

I was watching AI again recently… are there any predictions that NYC could ever bee 30 stories underwater?? thats a heck of a lot of H2O worldwide. Does EVERY drop of ice and snow worldwide melt into 30 stories deep around the globe? can't be physically possible, politics aside!

According to "Waterworld", the Himalayas would be the only land left on Earth.