So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[Martin Sinescu]

16 hours ago, bluechip said:

This is said fairly often here and it always sounds as counter-intuitive as it would be to say "I don't see anybody being a huge baseball fan and then deciding to buy expensive baseball cards after they grow up and make a lot of spare money".   Or "I don't see anybody liking cars and going on to invest in vintage cars."     "I don't see somebody paying big money for a first edition book just because they loved the book."    

I could go on.  "You think film fans might pay big money for film posters or props?   What are you smoking?"   

Virtually everything that's collectible... everything... is driven in some part by people who came to love something about the collectible in one form or another.  For many Spider-man collectors their first exposure to Spider-man was a cartoon.    And many speculators are actually fans as well, because it's more fun to speculate in something you like.   But all that would seem to me to be as obvious as can be.   So this absolutism which more than a few people have, that collectors never begin collecting for any reason other than the reasons they began, despite all evidence to the contrary, makes me shake my head.

 

 

Nailed it. 

[thedude]

On 8/29/2019 at 7:24 AM, 234wallst said:

As a huge fan of the MCU, I ignore all spoilers until after I see the movie.  Then I go back and read all the leaks to see how many were true.  FF48 and IH181 all spiked due to rumors of their characters appearing in post credit scenes for the latest Avengers films.  I had no idea at time what was spiking the prices, but I'm sure that was it.

Now I'm sure a lot of people were aware the Sony/Marvel deal for Spidey was over after FFH and a renewal didn't appear to be moving in the right direction - and I'm sure this was leaked all over the internet.  I'm speculating now that has led to the decline in price on AF15 (I suppose the reverse/opposite of hype).  Very weak prices in the recent CL auctions.  A chip free 4.0 went for under 24K.  2 years ago a "high end" 3.0 (if there is such a thing) went for that price.  Then you could get 3.5 chip free for 24K or less.  Now 4.0 - what's next? 

A 5.0 with some chipping went for $34K.  I would consider a better looking chipped book - as it didn't look all jagged and raggedy like some do.

I agree that the very presentable 4.0 copy sold for cheap, the 2.5 copy seemed to do ok ending at $15, 250.

[GAMBIT]

On 8/29/2019 at 7:24 AM, 234wallst said:

As a huge fan of the MCU, I ignore all spoilers until after I see the movie.  Then I go back and read all the leaks to see how many were true.  FF48 and IH181 all spiked due to rumors of their characters appearing in post credit scenes for the latest Avengers films.  I had no idea at time what was spiking the prices, but I'm sure that was it.

Now I'm sure a lot of people were aware the Sony/Marvel deal for Spidey was over after FFH and a renewal didn't appear to be moving in the right direction - and I'm sure this was leaked all over the internet.  I'm speculating now that has led to the decline in price on AF15 (I suppose the reverse/opposite of hype).  Very weak prices in the recent CL auctions.  A chip free 4.0 went for under 24K.  2 years ago a "high end" 3.0 (if there is such a thing) went for that price.  Then you could get 3.5 chip free for 24K or less.  Now 4.0 - what's next? 

A 5.0 with some chipping went for $34K.  I would consider a better looking chipped book - as it didn't look all jagged and raggedy like some do.

 

Not taking away the fact that the 4.0 on CL went lower than expected.  IMO a big reason is the book has no chance of improvement, do to the weird bend (tear?) to the top right FC, mixed with cream pages and no back scan. Receipt for a low sale.  but as someone else said. the 2.5 (with tape on cover) selling for 15k , says a lot to the strong life of AF15. 

[blazingbob]

What I have found with any of the keys is that copies with good eye appeal will sell for a strong number and copies with the latest in "Consumer distastes - Marvel chipping, tape,  cream/offwhite pages" will sell for less.

Honestly I don't know why consignor's don't force Comiclink to post back cover scans.  

The CGC/CBCS pricing tools are all dropping the ball by not capturing the scan of the books for visual comparisons to similar copies.  Now while thedude says the presentable 4.0 sold for cheap I would argue that if it did have cream/offwhite pages some buyers won't bid on it.  And if the auction house is charging sales tax, buyers in those sales tax states are not going to bid on "borderline books".    As with any disposable income purchase when you figure out the sale tax hit the buyer talks themselves out of the purchase or bid.

I'm having no problems selling keys with great eye appeal for over GPA numbers.    

Edited August 31, 2019 by blazingbob

[Jaydogrules]

26 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

What I have found with any of the keys is that copies with good eye appeal will sell for a strong number and copies with the latest in "Consumer distastes - Marvel chipping, tape,  cream/offwhite pages" will sell for less.

Honestly I don't know why consignor's don't force Comiclink to post back cover scans.  

The CGC/CBCS pricing tools are all dropping the ball by not capturing the scan of the books for visual comparisons to similar copies.  Now while thedude says the presentable 4.0 sold for cheap I would argue that if it did have cream/offwhite pages some buyers won't bid on it.  And if the auction house is charging sales tax, buyers in those sales tax states are not going to bid on "borderline books".    As with any disposable income purchase when you figure out the sale tax hit the buyer talks themselves out of the purchase or bid.

I'm having no problems selling keys with great eye appeal for over GPA numbers.    

*sigh*

And yet...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/AMAZING-FANTASY-15-CGC-3-0-ORIGIN-amp-1ST-APP-SPIDER-MAN-1295172001-/273971839183?hash=item3fc9fe80cf%3Ag%3AvjwAAOSwAitdWvK1&nma=true&si=iFZRySQ5y%2FIXXG0HfR%2Fz791DLhQ%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

So comic link had a couple difficult to explain less than stellar results in this particular auction?

This won't be the last auction, and this isn't the only venue where copies have been changing hands, at all sorts of price points, for all sorts of reasons, to all sorts of buyers with all sorts of tastes, no doubt. 

-J.

[Spiderturtle]

4 hours ago, blazingbob said:

What I have found with any of the keys is that copies with good eye appeal will sell for a strong number and copies with the latest in "Consumer distastes - Marvel chipping, tape,  cream/offwhite pages" will sell for less.

Honestly I don't know why consignor's don't force Comiclink to post back cover scans.  

The CGC/CBCS pricing tools are all dropping the ball by not capturing the scan of the books for visual comparisons to similar copies.  Now while thedude says the presentable 4.0 sold for cheap I would argue that if it did have cream/offwhite pages some buyers won't bid on it.  And if the auction house is charging sales tax, buyers in those sales tax states are not going to bid on "borderline books".    As with any disposable income purchase when you figure out the sale tax hit the buyer talks themselves out of the purchase or bid.

I'm having no problems selling keys with great eye appeal for over GPA numbers.    

Eye appeal plays a huge role in purchases.  Being in California, I have to pay 10 percent tax at heritage, comicconnect, and comiclink.  I go to eBay or a dealer and save on that 10 Percent.  Great opportunity for sellers not having to charge taxes.  Pretty simple 

Edited August 31, 2019 by Spiderturtle

[Glassman10]

It leaves out the downside effect of paying 20% cap gains to boot  if it does go up in value. Hold one for fifty years and it gets your attention.

[Spiderturtle]

3 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

It leaves out the downside effect of paying 20% cap gains to boot  if it does go up in value. Hold one for fifty years and it gets your attention.

Most of the boardies won’t be around in 50 years.  

[lou_fine]

7 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

3 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

It leaves out the downside effect of paying 20% cap gains to boot  if it does go up in value. Hold one for fifty years and it gets your attention.

Most of the boardies won’t be around in 50 years

If you look at the posting history of many one time prominent and frequent boardies here, I would have to say that many of the current boardies won't be around in even 5 years from now.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

13 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

If you look at the posting history of many one time prominent and frequent boardies here, I would have to say that many of the current boardies won't be around in even 5 years from now.  

I agree. I look at past glorious threads and postings and I wonder where they are now.

I know I’m straying from the thread topic, but does anyone have a decent estimate of what percentage of collectors are active here on the boards? In other words, do we merry few represent 5% of all the comic collectors? Or 50%?

[Glassman10]

For what it's worth, on a board I run on  technical problems in glass, about 950 people are registered on the board while about 1100 lurk as unregistered. The software we use lets me see what everyone is looking at as a thread at any time. It does seem to be the case that the average hourly readers total about 350  24/7 worldwide with about 25 actively participating registered ones on a regular basis, sometimes less.  What I find interesting is the stuff the lurkers are looking at. It's almost all substantially older archive material, not newer posts.  Makeup interest is similar. The regular contributors are pretty much professionals in the field. The lurkers are frequently in school or so I surmise based on material that they look at. The archives go back 20 years. . 

[lou_fine]

18 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I know I’m straying from the thread topic, but does anyone have a decent estimate of what percentage of collectors are active here on the boards? In other words, do we merry few represent 5% of all the comic collectors? Or 50%?

If you are talking about collectors as being active board members here, I suspect the percentage would be in the very low single digits and not even approaching 5%.

If you are talking about collectors who are also quasi dealers and sets up at the local cons, I suspect that percentage might be slightly higher, but probably not by a large margin.

After all, board members are generally all about slabbed books and the graded comic book market, although a significant part of the comic book market from a dollars point of view, is still a very small portion of the overall comic book market from the pont of view of actual number of collectors.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

7 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

If you are talking about collectors as being active board members here, I suspect the percentage would be in the very low single digits and not even approaching 5%.

If you are talking about collectors who are also quasi dealers and sets up at the local cons, I suspect that percentage might be slightly higher, but probably not by a large margin.

After all, board members are generally all about slabbed books and the graded comic book market, although a significant part of the comic book market from a dollars point of view, is still a very small portion of the overall comic book market from the pont of view of actual number of collectors.  

That makes sense. I’ve noticed some hot genres in here that barely nudge the needle out in the world

[Spiderturtle]

Finally checked out the 4.0 price, not much of a gap between the tape 2.5 $15k and 4.0 $23,760.  2.5 buyer didn’t have to pay taxes?  Taxes taxes 10 percent closer to $26,100 in real dollar in California.  Affects everyone.  Now the next guy will want to buy it for $23,760 not accounting for taxes.  10 percent pretty big deal in terms of profit margin.  I’m a weekend warrior on selling so therefore that 10 percent plays a huge role in buying/reselling

Edited September 1, 2019 by Spiderturtle

[Spiderturtle]

There’s a few boardies that say taxes don’t matter, won’t affect prices. I say that’s false.   10 percent is a huge deal even if you are rich.  Sure it won’t matter if it’s a hot book or hard to find book but for the rest..especially when there’s other venues not charging taxes 

Edited September 1, 2019 by Spiderturtle

[Glassman10]

I mostly see dealers here at one level or another and dealers need to keep churning the market to make money.  Is that wrong as a view? If you don't have new people entering the market, you can't make money. 

 

As long as it is presumed sensible to think that, this board is slanted to new sales and along with CGC which wants to make money slabbing books, it's pretty easy to see where collectors would take the place with a really large grain of salt and likely go elsewhere once they figured that out. . 

[1950's war comics]

So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?

Because at some point your average collector is not going $15,000 spare dollars to purchase a low grade ASM15

15K can purchase a brand new Chevy Sonic ...35 MPG

15K can also purchase THREE of the most rare and desirable G/VG collectors coins in existence (if you can find one) ,... the 1901 S Barber quarter

Edited September 2, 2019 by 1950's war comics

[1950's war comics]

1901-S Barber Quarter

 

The 1901-S Barber Quarter  is known as the “King of Barber Coinage.” The issue has a mintage of 72,664 and is known as the most difficult coin of the series to acquire in any grade. The reasons for the low mintage of the 1901-S Barber Quarter are not known, although one researcher has suggested that a large number of the previous years quarters were not yet distributed.

Despite the exceptional rarity of this issue, it is worth noting that it does not have the lowest mintage of the series. This distinction belongs to the 1913-S. The rarity of the 1901-S comes from the fact that very few examples of the coin were saved, with the majority entering circulation and some being melted afterward.

This key date coin is rare and in demand in any grade, especially so in problem-free condition. Examples graded Good-4 to Good-6 typically sell for prices in the $4,000 to $6,000 range. Price levels quickly increase for better condition examples.

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, 1950's war comics said:

1901-S Barber Quarter

 

The 1901-S Barber Quarter  is known as the “King of Barber Coinage.” The issue has a mintage of 72,664 and is known as the most difficult coin of the series to acquire in any grade. The reasons for the low mintage of the 1901-S Barber Quarter are not known, although one researcher has suggested that a large number of the previous years quarters were not yet distributed.

Despite the exceptional rarity of this issue, it is worth noting that it does not have the lowest mintage of the series. This distinction belongs to the 1913-S. The rarity of the 1901-S comes from the fact that very few examples of the coin were saved, with the majority entering circulation and some being melted afterward.

This key date coin is rare and in demand in any grade, especially so in problem-free condition. Examples graded Good-4 to Good-6 typically sell for prices in the $4,000 to $6,000 range. Price levels quickly increase for better condition examples.

Does it have a centerfold in color? 

[Beige]

Why is it dropping?

Easy - I recently bought one!

Which book would you like me to ruin next.....