What % of the buyers and sellers are “cpr”? 0

[Knightsofold]

I had thought the infux of collectors in the last 10-15 years were people returning to the hobby for reasons such and nostalgia, movie interest, disposable income, etc.  But I’ve been starting to wonder how much the market’s been/is effected by people buying raw and slabbed books just to press and resubmit.   (Crack, Press, Resubmit)

If there were no more books left to “upgrade”, and we essentially lost all the buyers who only purchased for that purpose, would that be a big impact?  

Many use their profits to buy their own keeper books, if we lost those sales would that be huge?

What % of dealers/your sales go to suspected CPR buyers?

Will they eventually run out of keys to upgrade and profit?  What happens then?

Just curious, perhaps it’s a very tiny % of the market. 

 

[Get Marwood & I]

Any impact would only be felt in the slabbing market, wouldn't it? CPR by definition relates to slabs only (you can't crack a raw) and slabs are a tiny % of the overall hobby. 5 million items graded, of which a large number are probably resubs. A drop in the ocean of comics activity in general. 

The London Fair I attend has scores of dealers, thousands and thousands of comics and only a handful of slabs. I've never seen anyone buy one. 

So I don't think it will have much affect, if upgrade potential one day runs out. If all the slabs one day have been upgraded to their limits CGC submissions will drop and dealers who focus entirely on slabs may take a hit. Everyone else will keep buying and selling raws.

Some of which might get slabbed for the first time, CPR'd and.....

[Knightsofold]

Do you think only a very small amount of raw buyers are getting books worth pressing and submitting?

[Get Marwood & I]

4 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

Do you think only a very small amount of raw buyers are getting books worth pressing and submitting?

Not sure what you mean. Could you phrase the question you're asking a little more clearly please - CPR is a slabbing only activity. Sending in a raw for the first time isn't CPR. Is it CPR activity only you are discussing - the exhaustion of CPR upgrade possibilities - or the submission of raws too? They're different things, so have different answers. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

CGC has only graded ~5M comics. No one cares how many CBCS and PGX have graded. (I kid....I kid...well, ok, I don't.)

That's less than the print run of a single comic: X-Men #1 (1991)

There are literally billions of comic books in existence. Granted, 99% of them aren't worth grading...but that leaves tens of millions that ARE. 

CGC hasn't even begun to scratch the surface of what is out there. I suspect that CGC hasn't graded even a plurality of the most key of books. If CGC has graded 50% of the extant Action #1s, I'd be very surprised. CGC has seen...at most....only about 10% of the extant AF #15s. And even the highest amount of graded books for a single issue...ASM #300....has barely reached 10% of the surviving print run...if that.

And that's with now 20 full years in business.

The CPR game could go on for another 20-30 years as it has, without slowing down. There's THAT much ungraded material out there.

[Knightsofold]

The question was/is what type of impact does the cpr/presser type of crowd have on the market.  The $ going in and out of the comic market from individuals who buy both slabbed or raw books with the intention of pressing to raise grades for profit.  

So far it sounds like it makes little to no impact whatsoever, and will never end.

[theCapraAegagrus]

I wish it was 0, for the most part.

[Krismusic]

in the overall market I think its a very small percentage that gets affected by the people that buy for CPR as many of the raw books being sent in now are getting pressed before slabbing so you save costs on CPR'ing a book if that's a word . So to answer if the CPR market will dry up IMO I think there's less than 5 million candidates for CPR but that are many people who don't press when submitting so there could be a stream of books always but avid people who are purchasing to CPR will not have a large amount as they do now probably in my best guesses scenario's.  

[bc]

17 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

The question was/is what type of impact does the cpr/presser type of crowd have on the market.  The $ going in and out of the comic market from individuals who buy both slabbed or raw books with the intention of pressing to raise grades for profit.  

So far it sounds like it makes little to no impact whatsoever, and will never end.

Think its likely a small percentage of people doing this (less than 5%) to a small percent of books, but will likely never be able to pin it down due to the lack of disclosure. Maybe they post about it on Facebook or somewhere, but it's certainly not something a smart seller would do on these boards without being discovered by the detectives here.

Also think the supply is plentiful but how many times can a single book be CPR'd before there is no more juice left in the squeeze? We've seen a single book get CPR'd here what 3 or 4 times already? Other than pricey books does this warrant the investment to CPR and the risk to potentially damage the book (in shipping as well as the additional pressing). Not sure if there has been anyone comment on what happens after 10 or 20 (or more) presses other than what we have seen from some books where the front cover is creeping to the back cover (think that was an Avengers 1). 

But the point is, there is a certain situation where CPR fails to provide the monetary reward to mitigate the risk. Not sure of all the costs, but if you just take the grading fee (let's say its $20) and the pressing fee (lets say its $15) and add shipping (lets say $20 total), right there you have a $50+ capital outlay that needs recouped when the book is sold. How many books are going to potentially increase in market value from a grade step bump? The costs, of course, get higher with bigger value books as does the potential reward. Is someone going to CPR a Defenders 42 or an Iron Man 221 (random books) to maybe get a better grade? The amount of books that make this worthwhile is limited to a small percent of the overall comic population. Sure there is some kind of graph that could be made to show at least the break-even point, but I'm not that motivated yet today.

Sure that CGC welcomes the "return" business that CPR provides but I'm willing to bet that new people to this hobby will only try this a time or two before getting soured on the results. The first thing someone who wants to succeed in the CPR game better do is learn to properly grade books and determine what flaws could benefit. That's not a big percent of the casual collectors in this hobby in itself.

 

 

[wombat]

1 hour ago, Krishosein said:

in the overall market I think its a very small percentage that gets affected by the people that buy for CPR as many of the raw books being sent in now are getting pressed before slabbing so you save costs on CPR'ing a book if that's a word . So to answer if the CPR market will dry up IMO I think there's less than 5 million candidates for CPR but that are many people who don't press when submitting so there could be a stream of books always but avid people who are purchasing to CPR will not have a large amount as they do now probably in my best guesses scenario's.  

Isn't the problem with this theory that you don't know if a book was pressed?

[Krismusic]

28 minutes ago, wombat said:

Isn't the problem with this theory that you don't know if a book was pressed?

Well my theory is working off that New slab books or recent submissions, would always (I assume) be pressed as cause most people press all new submissions even the 9.8's in hopes of a 10 So when I think of CPR I would look for Old label books. So the Pool for Old slabs are a finite amount and be the base line for the amount of CPR's available. But as I also said yes there would be circumstances where the new submissions would be a CPR candidate but the flow of available CPR's Candidates would be much smaller 

[Hollywood1892]

20 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

CGC has only graded ~5M comics. No one cares how many CBCS and PGX have graded. (I kid....I kid...well, ok, I don't.)

That's less than the print run of a single comic: X-Men #1 (1991)

There are literally billions of comic books in existence. Granted, 99% of them aren't worth grading...but that leaves tens of millions that ARE. 

CGC hasn't even begun to scratch the surface of what is out there. I suspect that CGC hasn't graded even a plurality of the most key of books. If CGC has graded 50% of the extant Action #1s, I'd be very surprised. CGC has seen...at most....only about 10% of the extant AF #15s. And even the highest amount of graded books for a single issue...ASM #300....has barely reached 10% of the surviving print run...if that.

And that's with now 20 full years in business.

The CPR game could go on for another 20-30 years as it has, without slowing down. There's THAT much ungraded material out there.

The voice of reason

[RockMyAmadeus]

21 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

The question was/is what type of impact does the cpr/presser type of crowd have on the market.  

Right...which is why talking about how many books are out there is important. The real answer is "very little." Books that have never been slabbed are being slabbed all the time. And while a lot of books are being pressed beforehand, not all of them are, and the ones that are, are done so to varying degrees of quality, which means that there is still potential even in already pressed books (as others have mentioned.) 

[wombat]

What % of new books being slabbed do people think are pressed first?

[WoWitHurts]

8 minutes ago, wombat said:

What % of new books being slabbed do people think are pressed first?

I assume every graded book I buy has been pressed.

[bc]

30 minutes ago, wombat said:

What % of new books being slabbed do people think are pressed first?

Remember one of those cool @valiantman charts that showed the vast majority of book being slabbed are Moderns and Variants. Would think those collectors are shooting for the high 9.x grade levels,so it would follow that many of them are being pressed beforehand.

I bet the actual percentage of new books being pressed and then slabbed is likely a staggering majority.

 

[wombat]

2 hours ago, bc said:

Remember one of those cool @valiantman charts that showed the vast majority of book being slabbed are Moderns and Variants. Would think those collectors are shooting for the high 9.x grade levels,so it would follow that many of them are being pressed beforehand.

I bet the actual percentage of new books being pressed and then slabbed is likely a staggering majority.

 

Since I don't buy too many modern books I wasn't thinking about that. And not a lot of high grade anything. In my end of the pool probably doesn't make much sense for pressing so I never thought it was so prevalent. 

[bc]

15 minutes ago, wombat said:

Since I don't buy too many modern books I wasn't thinking about that. And not a lot of high grade anything. In my end of the pool probably doesn't make much sense for pressing so I never thought it was so prevalent. 

Found this on valiantman's slabbed.com archive site:

Data is based on 2016 and earlier, but my suspicion is the percentage of modern books (and variants) being submitted is growing each year.

"The portion of each CGC grading year(s) attributed to each decade of comic books is shown as a percentage in the chart below."

Including the 1990s, 2000's and 2010's that's about 50% of the total annually graded books. Throw in BA eras ('70s & '80's) and that's closer to 80% of all annually graded books.

[jsilverjanet]

On 8/5/2019 at 3:30 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

ASM #300....has barely reached 10% of the surviving print run...if that

CGC sent out a press release about getting close to grading #20,000 as part of a promotion

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/7630/

 

 

Edited August 6, 2019 by jsilverjanet

[Krismusic]

18 hours ago, bc said:

Remember one of those cool @valiantman charts that showed the vast majority of book being slabbed are Moderns and Variants. Would think those collectors are shooting for the high 9.x grade levels,so it would follow that many of them are being pressed beforehand.

I bet the actual percentage of new books being pressed and then slabbed is likely a staggering majority.

 

hence my theory..