Thoughts on Stocks and Coronavirus and Comics 4 4

[unclezebo]

I hate to say it, but I kinda want for the Gov't to shut everything down for a few weeks. Let the testing catch up as much as it can, get a firm(er) grip on data and come up with a plan. At least that will be a start to hopefully flatten the curve. 

[MGsimba77]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

No reason to think when/f this passes there will not be pent up demand in general, particularly if the guvment (fed and local)  steps in and props things up, stops foreclosures and evictions, etc. Granted, we have a lot of debt right now so one could argue we were having a recession this year anyway. 10 years of "up" usually falls off a cliff at some point. We usually don't get an 8-10 year run. We are shutting things down in order to slow things and have a China like resolution to this, which would basically be akin to a horrible flu season in terms of deaths or hospitalizations. Alas, it is only a few places really going wild. I happen to live in one.

There was no indication whatsoever of a recession this year. The last one in 09 was so freaking horrendous that it almost ensured more than a decade of a recession free business cycle. As far as the government stepping in to stop foreclosures I hope we don't hear the hysterical tantrums that were thrown when it was done in 2009. Some commentators on financial networks in particular come to mind. 

[the blob]

6 minutes ago, MGsimba77 said:

There was no indication whatsoever of a recession this year. The last one in 09 was so freaking horrendous that it almost ensured more than a decade of a recession free business cycle. As far as the government stepping in to stop foreclosures I hope we don't hear the hysterical tantrums that were thrown when it was done in 2009. Some commentators on financial networks in particular come to mind. 

I was reading recession predictions and a stock market correction before covid19 was a "thing" folks were concerned about. Too much debt, bubble, prices, etc 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, unclezebo said:

I hate to say it, but I kinda want for the Gov't to shut everything down for a few weeks. Let the testing catch up as much as it can, get a firm(er) grip on data and come up with a plan. At least that will be a start to hopefully flatten the curve. 

Was juast watching the news and saw a comparison between Canada and Taiwan's response to the entire Coronavirus outbreak.  Couldn't find a link to the story, but found this one instead as to how Taiwan was able to stop the virus right in its tracks:  

  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html

Looks like Taiwan took it seriously right from the get go and started to flatten the curve back in January when it was first identified by China.  The North Americans of course ignored all of the huge red flag warning signs with some even calling it a big hoax, and instead, kept busy driving the markets to new record highs for another 3 to 4 weeks.    

[Lukesaurus]

I'm from Europe and use a mail forwarding service from the US to get my books . The service has been suspended as of Monday so the chance to get my copy of Batman 89 and buy a new car has passed 

I am a bit sad by the reaction of a few board members here that believe all this is overreacting and it's an attack on their rights . This is serious , you might be fine but people in the next town might not be . 

So please follow the advice and guidelines of the authorities stay safe and try to limit unnecessary travel . I don't want to get into politics but the US response to this threat has been slow .

Anyway these are the thoughts of a person who has 2 more days of quarantine left as I have been in Germany 2 weeks ago . 

[MGsimba77]

26 minutes ago, the blob said:

I was reading recession predictions and a stock market correction before covid19 was a "thing" folks were concerned about. Too much debt, bubble, prices, etc 

Nah there were recession predictions going back years. People were predicting a recession resulting from a trade war and that clearly didn't happen. We've had a sustained trade war with our biggest trade partner with nothing close to a recession! Economic predictions are false like 99.9999% of the time. Never stops people from trying though. The economy is too big with too many moving parts to be predictable. If debt caused recession the 2009 recession would still be happening. There "may" have been a slowdown but nothing to merit predictions of recession 

If the day ever comes where we can't raise the debt ceiling however that's a different story entirely. You're talking serious doomsday ramifications at that point 

Edited March 18, 2020 by MGsimba77

[lizards2]

On 3/15/2020 at 3:47 PM, the blob said:

We are doing fewer tests in order to report lower numbers

[lizards2]

On 3/16/2020 at 8:50 PM, jools&jim said:

I obeyed the CDC and stocked up on my medications...

We had to travel thru California to get home to Oregon on Sunday, otherwise, I'd avoid that cesspit altogether.  On the bright side, while California charges $1 more per gallon for gas, they charge about $20 less per gallon for liquor.  Long story short, I paid for gas for the trip by stocking up on consumables!   

[lizards2]

19 hours ago, comixry said:

So now the federal recommendation is to avoid groups of 10 or larger. Definitely in the realm of patronage size of any LCS. 

I've really tried to limit the numbers at my orgies for the last week...., 

Edited March 18, 2020 by lizards2
Oh, and we've also instituted a Bring Your Own Bum Gun policy....,

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

6 hours ago, Lukesaurus said:

I am a bit sad by the reaction of a few board members here that believe all this is overreacting and it's an attack on their rights .

The NBA, MLB and March Madness people would not leave well over a billion dollars on the table if this was just an overreaction. When businessmen make a sober money decision such as this, well in advance of mandated quarantine, they must feel fairly certain that this is a real deal, despite the naysayers 

https://apple.news/AV62unw5tQQib4aAbpRV-4g

Edited March 18, 2020 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

For those interested, and have not already read the report and/or news article, etc., an interesting coronavirus mortality forecast for the UK and USA.

Report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Washington Post Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

How this forecast may relate to the topic of this post I'll leave to others to speculate.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

4 hours ago, MGsimba77 said:

Nah there were recession predictions going back years. People were predicting a recession resulting from a trade war and that clearly didn't happen. We've had a sustained trade war with our biggest trade partner with nothing close to a recession! Economic predictions are false like 99.9999% of the time. Never stops people from trying though. The economy is too big with too many moving parts to be predictable. If debt caused recession the 2009 recession would still be happening. There "may" have been a slowdown but nothing to merit predictions of recession 

If the day ever comes where we can't raise the debt ceiling however that's a different story entirely. You're talking serious doomsday ramifications at that point 

I have been reading for many months prior to the rise of the coronavirus about a possible recession in 2020. For example see:

Will We See A U.S. Recession In 2020?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gradsoflife/2020/02/25/3-ways-to-manage-the-pressure-of-hiring-right-now/#55f7955d267e

A internet search shows many more such analysis, etc. Now, whether one wishes to agree with them is another matter.

[mattn792]

2 hours ago, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

I have been reading for many months prior to the rise of the coronavirus about a possible recession in 2020. For example see:

Will We See A U.S. Recession In 2020?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gradsoflife/2020/02/25/3-ways-to-manage-the-pressure-of-hiring-right-now/#55f7955d267e

A internet search shows many more such analysis, etc. Now, whether one wishes to agree with them is another matter.

They were writing the same stuff in 2019. And 2018. And 2017. And 2016....

[dupont2005]

2 hours ago, mattn792 said:

They were writing the same stuff in 2019. And 2018. And 2017. And 2016....

After a two trillion dollar intervention the Dow still dropped 10,000 points (over 33%) triggering the block three times in a week. First time that’s ever happened. 

[mattn792]

9 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

After a two trillion dollar intervention the Dow still dropped 10,000 points (over 33%) triggering the block three times in a week. First time that’s ever happened. 

That’s not my point.  There’s a certain segment of “analysts” who release their predictions of market doom every week of every month of every year.  Eventually they turn out to be right, bringing their prediction accuracy from 0 to .007%.  

And as for current events - NO ONE saw this coming months in advance.  So saying you read some “recession is coming in 2020” articles is hardly prescient.

[wilbil]

11 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

That’s not my point.  There’s a certain segment of “analysts” who release their predictions of market doom every week of every month of every year.  Eventually they turn out to be right, bringing their prediction accuracy from 0 to .007%.  

And as for current events - NO ONE saw this coming months in advance.  So saying you read some “recession is coming in 2020” articles is hardly prescient.

i don't get it. the link is to a forbes advertisement dated 25 feb. 2020. there is no mention of recession, etc. or is it just a reference that forbes predicted a recession?

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

3 hours ago, mattn792 said:

They were writing the same stuff in 2019. And 2018. And 2017. And 2016....

For 2016, for example, I find analysis on a possible global recession but not a possible recession specific to the USA.

At this point a global recession may take hold which, of course, includes the USA.

Edit: I failed to add that the folks who address such matters will, clearly, write about it as perhaps they may have few other options to stay relevant in their fields.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Tec-Tac-Toe

[MGsimba77]

1 hour ago, mattn792 said:

That’s not my point.  There’s a certain segment of “analysts” who release their predictions of market doom every week of every month of every year.  Eventually they turn out to be right, bringing their prediction accuracy from 0 to .007%.  

And as for current events - NO ONE saw this coming months in advance.  So saying you read some “recession is coming in 2020” articles is hardly prescient.

Yeah I agree with this. Our economy is so damn tough to try and game out! There are a million moving parts. ADP tries to forecast the monthly jobs numbers every month and the majority of the time they look like buffoons when the report is released. Its tough! How many people forecasted the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 which is often credited for triggering the collapse of the financial sector? Followed by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac having to be rescued by the government? How many people predicted Europe's collapse in March of 2010 which had a definite impact on us here??? Nobody! Unfortunately we got too many predictions and not enough wisdom in the chattering class. We need more Jack Bogles and less Larry Kudlows 

[the blob]

12 hours ago, MGsimba77 said:

Nah there were recession predictions going back years. People were predicting a recession resulting from a trade war and that clearly didn't happen. We've had a sustained trade war with our biggest trade partner with nothing close to a recession! Economic predictions are false like 99.9999% of the time. Never stops people from trying though. The economy is too big with too many moving parts to be predictable. If debt caused recession the 2009 recession would still be happening. There "may" have been a slowdown but nothing to merit predictions of recession 

If the day ever comes where we can't raise the debt ceiling however that's a different story entirely. You're talking serious doomsday ramifications at that point 

Yes, I know the bulk of the predictions were just for slowed growth in the 1-2% range, but I saw some predictions for recession from non sky is falling types.

 

[the blob]

I am approaching 50. Been through a few unpleasant recessions. Late 70s, early 80s. Post '89 black Friday. That felt like it lasted a long time. 2000-2002. 2008, etc. We get nailed with one every 7-10 years or so. Inevitable. This is a doubling down though. It exposes how unprepared most people are for bad times.