The Detective Comics Thread 5 5

[G.A.tor]

tec 37 is probably the toughest of them all outside of 28

 

 

Really? What about 36?

generally not as tough as 37... I think I have seen about a dozen copies for sale of the years, and maybe only 5-6 (half) of 37...

[G.A.tor]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

[G.A.tor]

as an example, 38 would be a 5 in my 1-30 scale

[Sardo Numspar]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick?

[G.A.tor]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick?

yep, 27 is just a matter of $'s... I personally have owned (I might be missing one here or there)

28-1 copy

37-2 copies

36-2 copies

29-7 copies

35-5 copies

31-14 copies

27-5 copies

30-2 copies

32-2 copies (actually, I might move this one up to 27/30 level...it was actually the last tec I needed when I completed my first run)

34-2 copies

33-1 copy (first one I bought)

[Bat-Man]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

 

Interesting. Very nice. I trust your theory here as you have owned multiples of each. I always thought 36 was the toughest (after the elusive 28) because I have seen 0 for sale recently - while I have seen 3 Tec 37's (one of which I bought at a CGC 1.0)

 

Well glad I own a 37 then. (thumbs u

[G.A.tor]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

 

Interesting. Very nice. I trust your theory here as you have owned multiples of each. I always thought 36 was the toughest (after the elusive 28) because I have seen 0 for sale recently - while I have seen 3 Tec 37's (one of which I bought at a CGC 1.0)

 

Well glad I own a 37 then. (thumbs u

you saw your WTB thread where I posted 2 of my 36's...and 1koko sold 1, and socratic wonder found one in SD 2 years ago and sold it, and there was an ebay copy, etc...more 36's than 37's...just that 37's experienced a little "bump" recently, but they are tough!

[campued1010]

Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun.

 

[G.A.tor]

I did a cgc census analysis sometime back...but, as an example, there are 32 #36's and only 28 # 37's...

 

here they are again

27-45 copies on census

28-20 copies on census

29-32 copies

30-26

31-47

32-25

33-53

34-31

35-30

36-32

37-28

and just for fun,

38-58

[G.A.tor]

Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun.

 

[Yannis]

Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere.

[Yannis]

and there was a 37 roaming around on ebay this last month with an asking price of nearly 2k (a 1.0 blue)

[G.A.tor]

Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere.

as mentioned, there was a big influx of 37's in the past year...but, overall/over years, a few more 36's (keep in mind, they are neck and neck)... I sold 1 tec 37 and 2 tec 36's this year (thumbs u

[Primetime]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick?

and 36 a slot above 29?

[Primetime]

tec 37 is probably the toughest of them all outside of 28

 

 

Really? What about 36?

generally not as tough as 37... I think I have seen about a dozen copies for sale of the years, and maybe only 5-6 (half) of 37...

37 is certainly the "cheapest" of the "rolling-fog" covers

[G.A.tor]

I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index"

 

1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy

 

issue-toughness

28-28

37-25

36-23

29-22

35-20

31-20

27-18

30-18

32-17

34-16

33-15

 

You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick?

and 36 a slot above 29?

sure, 29 has come up for sale at least as often as 36, maybe a wee bit more...and, there are more census copies too, I think

[Bat-Man]

Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun.

 

 

 

[CentaurMan]

I did a cgc census analysis sometime back...but, as an example, there are 32 #36's and only 28 # 37's...

 

here they are again

27-45 copies on census

28-20 copies on census

29-32 copies

30-26

31-47

32-25

33-53

34-31

35-30

36-32

37-28

and just for fun,

38-58

 

But you MUST always remember that the more valuable a book is, the more likely it will be slabbed. Every single time, that law holds true.

 

So let's pretend you had no idea about the scarcity of a run, but you know what the run is worth in unrestored 2.0 (a constant grade). For 'Tec 27-38, you'd expect the order of "most slabbed" to "least slabbed" to be:

 

1. 27

2. 29

3. 31

4. 33

5. 38

6. 35

7. 28

8. 37

9. 36

10. 32

11. 30

12. 34

 

(Please note that I'm not a pre-Robin Tec pricing expert. Adjust that list as you'd see fit, for value of books in unrestored 2.0).

 

Your order of least to most slabbed:

1. 28

2. 32

3. 30

4. 37

5. 35

6. 34

7. 36

8. 29

9. 27

10. 31

11. 33

12. 38

 

If my economic rule of scarcity held true, #1 on the first list would be #12 on the second list, #2 on the first list would be #11 on the second list, etc., so that every book had a "sum rank" of 13. In reality, here are the sum ranks:

 

27=10

28=8

29=10

30=14

31=13

32=12

33=15

34=18

35=11

36=16

37=12

38=17

 

Any number below 13 is scarcer than economics would've predicted, while any number above it is more common. So for this run, the scarcity is:

 

28=rarest

27

29

35

32

37

31

30

33

36

38

34=easiest

 

Unfortunately, doing this for a run of 12 books doesn't properly capture the range of the economics. Some of these books are very similar in value, while others are outliers. Rank-ordering them is linear and doesn't capture this dynamic.

 

However, if you had hundreds of books, thousands even, across publishers, years, genres, whatever, and you knew what they were all worth in unrestored 2.0, you could rank them accordingly on value, figure out the correct sum rank, and compare it to actual copies on the census. You'd have a HIGHLY accurate scarcity guide at that point, way more accurate than Gerber.

[G.A.tor]

I love the Win-dex

[Primetime]

Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere.

that has been my experience too--I've seen more 37s than 36s, but I've only been in the Pre Robin hunt for 3 years...Gator has a much better feel for the scarcity...