Official TMNT Speculation Thread
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So I thought separating the Fan threads and TMNT speculating might give more room for the fan threads to stick to their original purpose. Since we don't have a thread for TMNT books' performance on the market perhaps this would work to de-escalate any tensions in the other threads.

Unless you have been under a rock for the last 3 months you know that the TMNT back issue market is going nuts. It's not only being seen with #1 but with all the oversized comics and the 2nd prints and later issues. 

Of note are:

TMNT #1 1st, 2nd, and 3rd print in any grade (to a lesser extent 4th and 5th print) 

TMNT#2 especially if SS

TMNT #3 in all grades

TMNT #3 variant in any grade

TMNT #4 both prints in all grades

TMNT #5 2nd print in high grade

TMNT #7 2nd print in high grade

Raphael one shot in all grades

 

Please post your speculation theories (positive or negative) and let's see where we go over the next few months as the market cools? or heats up?

 

 

Edited by pubmonkey
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Woohoo, I get to reuse my chart!

The primary danger for TMNT #1 seems to be in the midgrade 2nd print and high grade 3rd print areas if the growth was too rapid.

image.png.df2c6b1bc0ddf7c52e3b91a8bebb96c0.png

Obviously, any other sales after today that are +200% (that is, three times the 2019 average) would also be pretty high on this chart.

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2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Woohoo, I get to reuse my chart!

The primary danger for TMNT #1 seems to be in the midgrade 2nd print and high grade 3rd print areas if the growth was too rapid.

image.png.df2c6b1bc0ddf7c52e3b91a8bebb96c0.png

Obviously, any other sales after today that are +200% (that is, three times the 2019 average) would also be pretty high on this chart.

are you able to generate a chart for Raphael one shot?

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#7 2nd print in high grade is going up fast too but seems to be holding with the recent sales on Ebay and the upcoming end of the Clink auction. At one time my 9.8 copy was the lone 9.8 on the census, now there are 14. Does anyone think this will dilute the market for this book or are we just getting started as a limited supply is now available for trade?

https://tmntcomics.wordpress.com/2016/07/21/1st-appearance-of-krang-in-comics/ is a great place to get to know this book a little better and to see what reason there could be for its popularity...

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Another interesting increase is happening to #2 regarding signed copies. The universal label copies have been relatively stable over the past 12 months while the signed copies have seen a dramatic increase. In fact the increase started as far back as December 2019...

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17 hours ago, pubmonkey said:

Another interesting increase is happening to #2 regarding signed copies. The universal label copies have been relatively stable over the past 12 months while the signed copies have seen a dramatic increase. In fact the increase started as far back as December 2019...

why is this?

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22 hours ago, pubmonkey said:

So I thought separating the Fan threads and TMNT speculating might give more room for the fan threads to stick to their original purpose. Since we don't have a thread for TMNT books' performance on the market perhaps this would work to de-escalate any tensions in the other threads.

Unless you have been under a rock for the last 3 months you know that the TMNT back issue market is going nuts. It's not only being seen with #1 but with all the oversized comics and the 2nd prints and later issues. 

Of note are:

TMNT #1 1st, 2nd, and 3rd print in any grade (to a lesser extent 4th and 5th print) 

TMNT#2 especially if SS

TMNT #3 in all grades

TMNT #3 variant in any grade

TMNT #4 both prints in all grades

TMNT #5 2nd print in high grade

TMNT #7 2nd print in high grade

Raphael one shot in all grades

 

Please post your speculation theories (positive or negative) and let's see where we go over the next few months as the market cools? or heats up?

 

 

Good call 👌

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1 hour ago, GM8 said:

why is this?

Eastman started doing more special mail-in signings over the last year, so perhaps that helped call attention to it as well as putting more signed copies out into the wild. His signature on any TMNT stuff is actually fairly common (as he has been signing stuff for decades), whereas Laird's is much harder to come by and I believe commands a premium.

Edited by Sauce Dog
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On 8/28/2020 at 3:48 PM, Sauce Dog said:

Eastman started doing more special mail-in signings over the last year, so perhaps that helped call attention to it as well as putting more signed copies out into the wild. His signature on any TMNT stuff is actually fairly common (as he has been signing stuff for decades), whereas Laird's is much harder to come by and I believe commands a premium.

Peter Laird's sig is akin to Michael Turner's for me in an artistic sense. Most artists just seem to have a scribble or plain text signature. These 2 guys have made their sigs part of the artwork and I enjoy seeing them on pretty much everything they have signed. Laird slowed down the signings starting back in 2014 iirc. I had a few things signed around then but I haven't heard of many opportunities since. I would absolutely pay a premium for any book signed by Laird.

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On 8/27/2020 at 5:00 PM, pubmonkey said:

TMNT #1 1st, 2nd, and 3rd print in any grade (to a lesser extent 4th and 5th print) 

Is there a FIFTH printing of the original Mirage TMNT #1? 

I just got back into comics and am crushed that I missed out on the initial release of the 4th printing with the full colour wrap around cover.  And now I'm amazed that I'll have to drop $100+ to get a copy of it now! And, is the 4th printing just regular traditional comic book size? I've only seem photos, and it doesn't look like they bothered printing it in the original oversized' magazine' format...

When was the 4th printing actually released?  And what was the actual price?  I assume they didn't retail for the 'cover price' of $1.50? :)

image.gif.7d1c8d36370dfcdeb93ce1d622c3d847.gif

Quote

The original Archie 3 issue mini series is still undervalued considering it holds first appearances of Bebop, Rocksteady and Krang.  Other than Shredder, those have to be the most iconic villains for the shellheads.

Here's hoping they spike!  I was a bit too young for the gritty Mirage books, but this min-series was exactly my speed at the time...  Just too bad the books never really became very popular, is that because they're lame 'Arhcie' comics?

Edited by StreetPreacher
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On 8/28/2020 at 4:33 PM, Broke as a Joke said:

The original Archie 3 issue mini series is still undervalued considering it holds first appearances of Bebop, Rocksteady and Krang.  Other than Shredder, those have to be the most iconic villains for the shellheads.

I wasn't a big fan of the TMNT Adventures series. It didn't stop me from buying and stashing the first few issues but I always saw it as a watered down version. I have since recognized there is a big following for these books and that most of what we see on the screen about the turtles these days is based in some way upon these comics and not the original darker and grittier ones. The toy series relied upon these issues to expand the universe and introduced new characters such as Bebop, Rocksteady, and the Utron called Krang. These characters are so ingrained in TMNT lore that most people who know the turtles know these villains. 

That being said, the back issue sales of these books have grown but don't seem to be inline with the increases of their b&w brethren. I would've thought that Krang alone would've brought more people to this table but #7 2nd print of the 1984 series seems to have stolen the limelight while not being an origin/1st appearance book.

I have as feeling that we are going to see an increase in these and the lower print later issues as a result of the present market. Dare I say that perhaps more people will relate to the Archie series than the original series due to their exposure to the films/cartoons?

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11 minutes ago, StreetPreacher said:

Is there a FIFTH printing of the original Mirage TMNT #1? 

I just got back into comics and am crushed that I missed out on the initial release of the 4th printing with the full colour wrap around cover.  And now I'm amazed that I'll have to drop $100+ to get a copy of it now! And, is the 4th printing just regular traditional comic book size? I've only seem photos, and it doesn't look like they bothered printing it in the original oversized' magazine' format...

When was the 4th printing actually released?  And what was the actual price?  I assume they didn't retail for the 'cover price' of $1.50? :)

image.gif.7d1c8d36370dfcdeb93ce1d622c3d847.gif

Here's hoping they spike!  I was a bit too young for the gritty Mirage books, but this min-series was exactly my speed at the time...  Just too bad the books never really became very popular, is that because they're lame 'Arhcie' comics?

There is indeed a fifth print of #1:

2391559_DetailsThumb_Obv.jpg.3c777e545e1693b082bd948709ea4b88.jpg

I have no idea of the print run but it is pretty hard to find in high grade. This one is one I purchased new in 1988. There is also a 6th print that is the same oversize as the original.

Like the 5th print the 4th print is 'proper' comic size and was likely regarded as a reader edition to the oversize. The owner of my LCS was never impressed when I bought any 2nd print of anything to stash away. He regarded them as readers to be enjoyed but not collected. 

The 4th print was published in 1985 and was indeed $1.50 in the US and $2.00 up here in Canada:

2314109_DetailsThumb_Obv.jpg.7129988ad5a77b3bd687b5f5dd94f569.jpg

 

 

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On 8/28/2020 at 3:48 PM, Sauce Dog said:

Eastman started doing more special mail-in signings over the last year, so perhaps that helped call attention to it as well as putting more signed copies out into the wild. His signature on any TMNT stuff is actually fairly common (as he has been signing stuff for decades), whereas Laird's is much harder to come by and I believe commands a premium.

Looking through GPA I noticed the sales that have been really high priced do not have Laird's sig but rather Eastman's sig with a remark. That may be because of a lack of Laird SS #2's... I have a couple of copies of #2 with his sig inside but nothing on the cover...

So, this adds a layer to the mystery...

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Since we are talking about speculating what are your thoughts about the next (near future) sales of 9.8’s of the following issues:

#1 first print

#1 second print

#3 nycc variant

#4 recall

 

 

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9 hours ago, StreetPreacher said:

Is there a FIFTH printing of the original Mirage TMNT #1? 

I just got back into comics and am crushed that I missed out on the initial release of the 4th printing with the full colour wrap around cover.  And now I'm amazed that I'll have to drop $100+ to get a copy of it now! And, is the 4th printing just regular traditional comic book size? I've only seem photos, and it doesn't look like they bothered printing it in the original oversized' magazine' format...

When was the 4th printing actually released?  And what was the actual price?  I assume they didn't retail for the 'cover price' of $1.50? :)

image.gif.7d1c8d36370dfcdeb93ce1d622c3d847.gif

Here's hoping they spike!  I was a bit too young for the gritty Mirage books, but this min-series was exactly my speed at the time...  Just too bad the books never really became very popular, is that because they're lame 'Arhcie' comics?

There is another oversized version.  The new 35th anniversary box set of TMNT 1-4 , and Raphael #1.

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