Are values now primarily driven by movie and show speculation? 0

[serling1978]

Are we at the point (or have been at the point for a while) where comic values are primarily driven by movie/show speculation? 

I've collected what I'm interested in and I've met MOST of my collecting goals so I'm not asking this from a point of someone who is trying to figure out what "hot books" to buy. I've already got huge runs starting from the first issue for ASM, Avengers, Iron Man, X-men, TOS (starting at 39), Hulk (Vol 1 and 2), etc. So I'm more curious if the values of my collection are going to be tied to the whims of movie speculators. 

I realize the big keys will continue to increase over time for the most part at a normal rate, but for example with the main Avengers related characters seeming to be on the back burner in the MCU I'm wondering if we'll see a slowdown or regression in value for those as other new hot items catch peoples attention. Especially fringe collectors. 

Again, not asking for advice on buying, but just curious about people's opinions on the future of collecting and if the speculators are in the driver's seat on jumps in value. Either way I'll do my own thing, but as a long time collector the subject does interest me. I'm interested in any GPA data or personal beliefs to prove one view or the other... 

 

[Buzzetta]

Yes, but possibly not in this way.  I believe it is a combination of an overall shift in collecting what is important and the impact of digital reproduction and collected works. 

When I was a kid and decided I wanted every single Amazing Spider-man ever made I went with an approach I had from baseball card collecting.  Get the rookies.  I did not care about the storylines, did not care about the artist.  I did not care about any of that.  I knew I had to prioritize the rookies.  So I went after 1st Black Costume, 1st Black Cat, 1st Hobgoblin, 1st Green Goblin and so on and continued to buy it every month working my way backwards and picking up other books as I had extra cash.  I had an AF15 before I had an issue 1.   Go for the rookies. 

The values of a lot of the books these days seem to increase for rookies as the first appearance of those characters are the things that are really popping.  Sure, a 9.8 or a 9.9 is reaching five figures of certain books because there are some bored people out there.  But, people are buying up 1st appearances waiting for a show, like a card collector looks for rookies of players that show signs of greatness. 

Movies are performance.  If Judge hits over 40 HR for the next four years and gets an MVP. Gold Glove, Batting Title or anything else while the Yankees win another championship, does Judge's rookie card increase in value?  Of course it does. So, if the movie is a blockbuster, it gains more exposure for the character and the character's first appearance increases in value as well.  Because... well... rookie card.  If the movie or show is a dud, then the rookie card decreases in price.  FF 45 is an example of that. 

I think that this has flipped comic collecting on its rear end.  While in the 80's we were told that Miller's Daredevil run was a must read, it's really Elektra's first appearance that is the standout.  Sandman is a great title, but really the only two books you 'need' to own is 1 and 8.  The rest you can read digitally or through a collected edition. 

 

[serling1978]

10 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

Yes, but possibly not in this way.  I believe it is a combination of an overall shift in collecting what is important and the impact of digital reproduction and collected works. 

When I was a kid and decided I wanted every single Amazing Spider-man ever made I went with an approach I had from baseball card collecting.  Get the rookies.  I did not care about the storylines, did not care about the artist.  I did not care about any of that.  I knew I had to prioritize the rookies.  So I went after 1st Black Costume, 1st Black Cat, 1st Hobgoblin, 1st Green Goblin and so on and continued to buy it every month working my way backwards and picking up other books as I had extra cash.  I had an AF15 before I had an issue 1.   Go for the rookies. 

The values of a lot of the books these days seem to increase for rookies as the first appearance of those characters are the things that are really popping.  Sure, a 9.8 or a 9.9 is reaching five figures of certain books because there are some bored people out there.  But, people are buying up 1st appearances waiting for a show, like a card collector looks for rookies of players that show signs of greatness. 

Movies are performance.  If Judge hits over 40 HR for the next four years and gets an MVP. Gold Glove, Batting Title or anything else while the Yankees win another championship, does Judge's rookie card increase in value?  Of course it does. So, if the movie is a blockbuster, it gains more exposure for the character and the character's first appearance increases in value as well.  Because... well... rookie card.  If the movie or show is a dud, then the rookie card decreases in price.  FF 45 is an example of that. 

I think that this has flipped comic collecting on its rear end.  While in the 80's we were told that Miller's Daredevil run was a must read, it's really Elektra's first appearance that is the standout.  Sandman is a great title, but really the only two books you 'need' to own is 1 and 8.  The rest you can read digitally or through a collected edition. 

 

A lot of good info there. And your point about the Miller run made me think how looking at old ads in comic books you can see that the dealers often did put higher prices on books based on artists, which seems to be falling by the wayside. 

To further your point about shows being duds resulting in drops in value, I also think the "what have you done for me lately" mentality will also cause slowdown in value increases in some cases. I'm sure someone with the data could confirm or deny this. But take Iron Man. He had an amazing run in the MCU, being featured in many movies. Now that's he's "dead" (will Marvel find a way to bring him back?) I think he'll take a back seat to the newer entries or returning characters of the MCU. So could be the upcoming years will be a prime time to land a TOS 39 for those who couldn't get one during the prime of the hype. 

[silverseeker]

I just decided to check GPA data for TOS #39 in CGC 6.0 to see if there's been a drop post-Endgame, and I don't see one so far...

This could be more an effect of the insanely hot comic market right now though...it will be interesting to see what happens when life starts to return to some semblance of normalcy.

[serling1978]

1 hour ago, silverseeker said:

I just decided to check GPA data for TOS #39 in CGC 6.0 to see if there's been a drop post-Endgame, and I don't see one so far...

This could be more an effect of the insanely hot comic market right now though...it will be interesting to see what happens when life starts to return to some semblance of normalcy.

Good data! As far as life returning to normalcy, I think that's a number of years away. With the Fantastic Four and the X-men still coming I think those are going to continue to increase to temporary unrealistic amounts.  Personally I think FF1 will reach and possibly sustain similar value to AF15, but only time will tell on that. 

[JazzMan]

Honestly, I don't think so.  The collectibles market is hot and folks that were kids in the 1970s are now finding themselves with nostalgia, disposable income, and lots more time to search the internet.  Pare that with the stimulus, in some cases, and you have a phenomena that rekindles the 90s publishers rush to tap a new market that ultimately fizzled.  Here, we are talking about a somewhat limited supply, yet plentiful keys are going for ridiculous prices due to movie hype.

In conclusion, the movies contribute, but is one of many factors.  

[Ken Aldred]

A couple of years ago it possibly was primarily film and TV speculation, but since Covid it has become much more complex and multi-factorial than that, vectoring steeply upwards together for now.

Interesting to see if it’s sustainable, or a quick-burning supernova.

Edited March 15, 2021 by Ken Aldred

[the blob]

for some books, not others. would we care about star wars and tnmt comics without the movies/shows? so there's that. but wolverine's and punisher's first continue to be big books while their characters are gone for a while on the screen. plenty of books get hot because of what is happening in books. And newsstands and other variants? nothing to do with movies. spawn is exploding and i don't think it is because of some vague movie that will be in development another 5 years.

 

[serling1978]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

for some books, not others. would we care about star wars and tnmt comics without the movies/shows? so there's that. but wolverine's and punisher's first continue to be big books while their characters are gone for a while on the screen. plenty of books get hot because of what is happening in books. And newsstands and other variants? nothing to do with movies. spawn is exploding and i don't think it is because of some vague movie that will be in development another 5 years.

 

Good points. In another thread someone brought up an upcoming Netflix show for Conan that I was unaware of . As a long time Conan collector I'm really interested to see what if any effect this series has regarding the comics. 

[WolverineX]

15 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

Yes, but possibly not in this way.  I believe it is a combination of an overall shift in collecting what is important and the impact of digital reproduction and collected works. 

When I was a kid and decided I wanted every single Amazing Spider-man ever made I went with an approach I had from baseball card collecting.  Get the rookies.  I did not care about the storylines, did not care about the artist.  I did not care about any of that.  I knew I had to prioritize the rookies.  So I went after 1st Black Costume, 1st Black Cat, 1st Hobgoblin, 1st Green Goblin and so on and continued to buy it every month working my way backwards and picking up other books as I had extra cash.  I had an AF15 before I had an issue 1.   Go for the rookies. 

The values of a lot of the books these days seem to increase for rookies as the first appearance of those characters are the things that are really popping.  Sure, a 9.8 or a 9.9 is reaching five figures of certain books because there are some bored people out there.  But, people are buying up 1st appearances waiting for a show, like a card collector looks for rookies of players that show signs of greatness. 

Movies are performance.  If Judge hits over 40 HR for the next four years and gets an MVP. Gold Glove, Batting Title or anything else while the Yankees win another championship, does Judge's rookie card increase in value?  Of course it does. So, if the movie is a blockbuster, it gains more exposure for the character and the character's first appearance increases in value as well.  Because... well... rookie card.  If the movie or show is a dud, then the rookie card decreases in price.  FF 45 is an example of that. 

I think that this has flipped comic collecting on its rear end.  While in the 80's we were told that Miller's Daredevil run was a must read, it's really Elektra's first appearance that is the standout.  Sandman is a great title, but really the only two books you 'need' to own is 1 and 8.  The rest you can read digitally or through a collected edition. 

 

I've always wanted the Deadpool rookie card

[the blob]

32 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

I've always wanted the Deadpool rookie card

Little did you know you have 12!

[the blob]

41 minutes ago, serling1978 said:

Good points. In another thread someone brought up an upcoming Netflix show for Conan that I was unaware of . As a long time Conan collector I'm really interested to see what if any effect this series has regarding the comics. 

The movie did nothing. If they have a good Belit that will help 58, etc. The BWS issues were due for some upswing. They had been stuck for a long time 

[the blob]

I just don't know how it will impact the run filler and all those lovely savage swords. 

[the blob]

Red sojna s firsts are cheap outside of high grade slabs. This is an iconic character and you could get a decent first for $50

[theCapraAegagrus]

Sadly, probably.

[serling1978]

22 minutes ago, the blob said:

The movie did nothing. If they have a good Belit that will help 58, etc. The BWS issues were due for some upswing. They had been stuck for a long time 

Yeah would be nice to see Belit. More than anything, comics aside, I really just want to watch a well made Conan series. The material is perfect for such a thing. I loved the Arnold movies growing up and still enjoy them to this day, but there's so much more unexplored material. 

[the blob]

7 minutes ago, serling1978 said:

Yeah would be nice to see Belit. More than anything, comics aside, I really just want to watch a well made Conan series. The material is perfect for such a thing. I loved the Arnold movies growing up and still enjoy them to this day, but there's so much more unexplored material. 

the kiddie oriented TV show from a while back was lame. too much of the Hercules vibe going on. They totally missed the whole point of conan. they messed up the movie with momoa. it wasn't the worst thing I had ever seen, but it wasn't conan either, it was pretty boy sword and sorcery. understanding it wasn't how the comics developed him, but how they showed conan turn into conan in the movie with arnold made so much sense. they've seen this can work... see the witcher ... they have so much source material to work with, like 700+ issues of conan between marvel and darkhorse, the original books, etc.. yes, they need to have overarching themes that work along side "monster of the week" plots. there is a lot of good sword/fantasy/sorcery stuff on TV now, they can make this work.

 

[sfcityduck]

Are comic values driven by movie speculation?  Only a tiny tiny minority, and only because speculators subscribe to the most basic analysis. 

[batmiesta]

Have they cast Conan yet? I think this will have a lot to do with how successful it is.  They totally  up the casting of Iron Fist, as soon as I seen who was playing him I couldn't bring myself to watch it.

[rjpb]

21 minutes ago, serling1978 said:

Yeah would be nice to see Belit. More than anything, comics aside, I really just want to watch a well made Conan series. The material is perfect for such a thing. I loved the Arnold movies growing up and still enjoy them to this day, but there's so much more unexplored material. 

I was a Conan fan as a teenager in the 70s, but my interest in sci-fi and fantasy gave way to hardboiled crime by the end of the decade. Still I saw the first Schwarzenegger movie when it came out, and found it severely lacking. Schwarzenegger was terrible, it looked cheap (the metal all looking like plastic) and cheesy, and had a skimpy, plodding story. I'm a big fan of modern sword and sandal dramas set in the Roman to Medieval eras, and was drawn to Game of Thrones because it more resembled those than typical fantasy, at least in the early seasons, with the palace intrigue, complex characters, and secondary emphasis on the supernatural and fantastical (though that tended to dominate towards the end). I'd check out a Conan series if it was more nuanced than just Conan vs. the bad guys, and dealt with his moral complexities, kept the supernatural elements to a minimum, something rare and therefore more meaningful, and of course had an actor that brought something to the role other than just a brawny physique (though Conan needs to still be a physically imposing presence).