Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[valiantman]

For most people, their biggest expense each month is rent/mortgage payment.

The nationwide eviction moratorium started in March 2020 and ended August 26, 2021.

That's 16 months where people, if they chose, could spend their rent/mortgage payment on anything else, and 16 months where money that is normally spent on vacation/entertainment/dining was generally not spent on those things.

I think we'll know how much of the market was driven by people who were spending their entertainment/travel money and how much was driven by people who were spending their rent in the next month or two.  

There's still not much reason to spend entertainment/travel money on entertainment/travel, but if people were spending rent on collectibles... that's over.

Any unpaid rent in those 16 months is now due, as well as the current month's rent... and people with debts they can't pay usually become sellers of anything that helps pay those debts.

[lou_fine]

On 9/12/2021 at 5:16 AM, musicmeta said:

On 9/11/2021 at 9:31 PM, alexgross.com said:

if you beleive that heritage auctions results are real, then today says the market is hotter than even a few months ago. many unreal silver age results there. personally i'm very skeptical given all the recent news about their alleged practices like bidding on and buying their own stuff. but clearly it cannot all be rigged either. 

Excellent point.  I would think at least some of these could be real.  Regardless, if you're selling, you're happy. 

Especially if you are selling it to yourself and moving it back into your inventory for a subsequent go round with no auction fees or shipping charges incurred at all.  

[Gregd]

I would just say for the novice collector, look at key issues that are affordable for you- and just plan to hold for a while. Look at gpa- see what the book got in 2019, 2020 and the 12 month average (and not just last sale). 

But….I don’t think people who can’t afford rent now were buying $40,000 books. Was there manipulation in the market- maybe? Probably? But that’s conjecture. I do think the wealth gap has increased and there are many folks who have a lot of disposable income because of stock market, real estate and crypto gains that have diversified into collectibles. If those markets crash, we will see the collectibles probably follow suit. But then it’s just a matter of waiting it out and holding onto your collection. (Another reason not to go into debt to buy comics). 
 

my 2 cents 😂

[valiantman]

On 9/14/2021 at 9:51 AM, Gregd said:

I don’t think people who can’t afford rent now were buying $40,000 books.

There were a few sales of $40,000 books, but there were thousands of sales of $500 to $3,000 books.

Looking at the dollar volumes, there could be a lot of rent money in a big chunk of the market.

[lou_fine]

On 9/14/2021 at 8:09 AM, valiantman said:

On 9/14/2021 at 7:51 AM, Gregd said:

I don’t think people who can’t afford rent now were buying $40,000 books.

There were a few sales of $40,000 books, but there were thousands of sales of $500 to $3,000 books.

Looking at the dollar volumes, there could be a lot of rent money in a big chunk of the market.

Let's see now........................you've got outstanding rent to eventually pay, food to put on the table for yourself along with the wife and kids possibly, along with the rest of the expenses required for you to live and you would actually take all that money and spend it on a $500 to $3K comic book.  

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but also totally nutso.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 9/14/2021 at 5:46 PM, lou_fine said:

Let's see now........................you've got outstanding rent to eventually pay, food to put on the table for yourself along with the wife and kids possibly, along with the rest of the expenses required for you to live and you would actually take all that money and spend it on a $500 to $3K comic book.  

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but also totally nutso.  

Not really nutso if you believe the book(s) you’re investing in are going to double in value overnight( which many were doing for a while earlier this year).

[valiantman]

On 9/14/2021 at 4:46 PM, lou_fine said:

Let's see now........................you've got outstanding rent to eventually pay, food to put on the table for yourself along with the wife and kids possibly, along with the rest of the expenses required for you to live and you would actually take all that money and spend it on a $500 to $3K comic book.  

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but also totally nutso.  

Let's see now.................... you've got a mortgage that's $3,000 per month but your home has $150,000 in additional equity because the housing market has gone way up, and you would actually take all that equity as a home equity loan and spend it on something you don't really need. 

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but it already happened and caused the crash of '09. 

[Arkham]

On 9/15/2021 at 7:46 AM, lou_fine said:

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but also totally nutso.

I know someone who has done exactly that. Notably, within days of also having their third child. 

[lou_fine]

On 9/12/2021 at 4:10 PM, Joshua33 said:

On 9/12/2021 at 4:04 PM, Hens_Teeth said:

No allegedly about, it's fact.

Where can I read this information?

Well, apparently it's been out there is quite a few of the social media platforms, but you can aso read about some of it on the boards here:    

Sadly, it looks like the whole thread has degenerated into a real dumpster fire before too long, whether intentionally or not, with a big pisssing contest between a few of the boardies here and no surprsie that it has now been locked by the Mods which was probably the intention of at least 1 boardie.    

Pretty much old news for a lot of the boardies who have been here a long time because these suspicions about the shenanigans that's actually taking place behind the scenes have been with us right from the get go and almost always with the same power players involved.  As another boardie had stated to me in a PM, kind of sad to see in this current market environment with all of the crazy money being thrown around, the game has really stepped up with what he calls the rather obvious "gradeflation" of books that's taking place when books are submitted for grading by them. 

Needless to say, not anywhere close to a level playing field at all when it comes to the so-call 3rd party independent certification model that's supposed to be in place.    

Edited September 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 9/14/2021 at 3:10 PM, valiantman said:

Let's see now.................... you've got a mortgage that's $3,000 per month but your home has $150,000 in additional equity because the housing market has gone way up, and you would actually take all that equity as a home equity loan and spend it on something you don't really need. 

Now, that is not only completely irresponsible, but it already happened and caused the crash of '09. 

If you are referring to the financial crisis caused by the crash in the housing market, wasn't that more the fault of the financial insitutions loaning out money to the max in a totally irresponsible way to borrowers who would never ever be able to make good on their payments should the market ever turn southwards, which I imagine it did in certain parts of the country.

Absolute total greed on the part of the financial loaning institutions to bring in high level mathematicians to come in and find some method to wrap all of these worthless junk mortage-backed securities into some kind of financial derivaties that most other financial wizards couldn't even figure out what was going on until the entire house of cards came crashing down right on top of themselves and deservely so.   

I don't thnk it was so much those homeowners taking out their loans and being irresponsible in terms of using that money to buy comics, collectibles, and other frivolous things that they didn't need.  Really more that the financial insitutions were completely irresponsible by giving out money to the hilt for junk mortgages to people who should not have been qualified. And yet those homeowners were wise enough to walk away from home that were worth only $150K or $200K for example that still had say a $300K mortgage on it when the housing prices came crashing down, leaving the financial insitutions with a basket full of pretty much worthless properties which they had created themselves through their financial paper wrangling.

So, since you have already seen this movie before, are you already in the process of selling off all of your comic books at these current top of market prices before the whole certified house of comics comes crashing down and some of these relatively common books now sitting at 5-figures or even 6-figures come crashing back down to earth and be seen as the equivalent of the junk mortgage-backed securities of the collectibles marketplace?      

Edited September 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[Westy Steve]

On 9/14/2021 at 9:27 AM, valiantman said:

For most people, their biggest expense each month is rent/mortgage payment.

The nationwide eviction moratorium started in March 2020 and ended August 26, 2021.

That's 16 months where people, if they chose, could spend their rent/mortgage payment on anything else, and 16 months where money that is normally spent on vacation/entertainment/dining was generally not spent on those things.

I think we'll know how much of the market was driven by people who were spending their entertainment/travel money and how much was driven by people who were spending their rent in the next month or two.  

There's still not much reason to spend entertainment/travel money on entertainment/travel, but if people were spending rent on collectibles... that's over.

Any unpaid rent in those 16 months is now due, as well as the current month's rent... and people with debts they can't pay usually become sellers of anything that helps pay those debts.

I'm a landlord several times over.  I don't think tenants who can't/won't pay are spending their funds that way.  I do believe there are a lot of people out there making more money on unemployment than they make working, and those people could be buying books, but likely not big ticket books.  IMHO, I do think there were a lot of people who took a mortgage hiatus believing that the government was going to give them a sweet bailout and some of that money may have been funneled into comics.  Not sure that the mortgage hiatus will be as good of a deal as people thought it was going to be though.  

[Joshua33]

On 9/14/2021 at 9:35 PM, lou_fine said:

If you are referring to the financial crisis caused by the crash in the housing market, wasn't that more the fault of the financial insitutions loaning out money to the max in a totally irresponsible way to borrowers who would never ever be able to make good on their payments should the market ever turn southwards, which I imagine it did in certain parts of the country.

Absolute total greed on the part of the financial loaning institutions to bring in high level mathematicians to come in and find some method to wrap all of these worthless junk mortage-backed securities into some kind of financial derivaties that most other financial wizards couldn't even figure out what was going on until the entire house of cards came crashing down right on top of themselves and deservely so.   

I don't thnk it was so much those homeowners taking out their loans and being irresponsible in terms of using that money to buy comics, collectibles, and other frivolous things that they didn't need.  Really more that the financial insitutions were completely irresponsible by giving out money to the hilt for junk mortgages to people who should not have been qualified. And yet those homeowners were wise enough to walk away from home that were worth only $150K or $200K for example that still had say a $300K mortgage on it when the housing prices came crashing down, leaving the financial insitutions with a basket full of pretty much worthless properties which they had created themselves through their financial paper wrangling.

So, since you have already seen this movie before, are you already in the process of selling off all of your comic books at these current top of market prices before the whole certified house of comics comes crashing down and some of these relatively common books now sitting at 5-figures or even 6-figures come crashing back down to earth and be seen as the equivalent of the junk mortgage-backed securities of the collectibles marketplace?      

Pretty much hit the nail on the head here. You forgot tranches and AIG rating D paper AAA and crashing other powerhouse economies with our junk loans as well. 

As for comics, yes I've been doing them for a long time, collecting, selling, trading, repeat, and I have moved most of my books because I feel it is financially irresponsible to hang on to them right now. 

I do believe I will be able to acquire most of them back, in the not too distant future for less than I sold them recently. A couple will be tough to ever get back, but them's the breaks.

I knew about the 09 case, I've studied Ewart ad nauseum. I was looking for more recent proof of bad habits by certain companies. I find it to be intriguing reading material. 

As for prices... they are DUMB. No other way to put it. The value of anything in this world will always be what somebody is willing to pay for it. I highly doubt there are as many actual buyers as there are race-track, money movin' price fixers on large books these days. You change the rules when you can bid on your own stuff with no consequence.

Ex: If I own an auction company and sell my own books, along with consignments, it would be a guaranteed way to print money.

All I would have to do is bid most of my books up while I see action on live bidding, then back out when I think interest is maxed. So I make all of my consignment fees, I also make buyer premiums for every book sold to an actual bidder, and if I end up being the highest bidder on say 30% of my own books, I crack and resubmit so the serial number changes, not caring whether I destroy the census and ruin the accuracy of rare book population. The grading company I use won't care, because they make their fees every time. 

Who knows, I might even get a call to auction the actual Necronomicon with that kind of full proof success?

Where there is profit to be made, there will be greed, and when there is greed, there will be corruption. 

[Joshua33]

On 9/14/2021 at 3:21 PM, Arkham said:

I know someone who has done exactly that. Notably, within days of also having their third child. 

Ummmmmm.... spanking?

[KPR Comics]

After 42 pages, it appears that some books are still climb, others are ease.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/15/2021 at 6:12 PM, KPR Comics said:

After 42 pages, it appears that some books are still climb, others are ease.

I've been buying regardless.  My goal is to be able to say one day that all your Marvel are belong to me.

[Gregd]

Has anyone ever done a “market cap” model for graded books to hone in on valuation based on number of books and current valuations? 

So for example there is roughly 33 graded Adventure #40 books with let’s say an average value of $10,000 a book. The market cap is $330,000. (Of course the model would have to insert each grading level and current value (or estimated value)).
 

ASM 1 has roughly 4300 graded copies with let’s say an average of $10,000 a book. That means it’s market cap is $43,000,000. 
 

Now let’s say a book that was brought up as too common to warrant the price maybe ASM 361. That looks like there is 21000 copies and let’s say the average value based on the number of high grade issues is $600 (and rising prices). So it’s market cap is $12,000,000. 
 

Does that help in determining when a book may be over or undervalued? If ASM 361’s value approaches the market cap of another key book such as ASM 1 wouldn’t that be a warning to investors? Or in the example of Adventure 40, perhaps the first appearance of the Sandman  bears more value then the $330,000 market cap it has.

Of course the more issues that are graded, the higher it pushes up the cap, but it may just keep its current cap and draw down the price of each graded copy. 
 

Maybe this has been thought about or calculated before 🤷🏻

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 9/15/2021 at 6:21 PM, Gregd said:

Has anyone ever done a “market cap” model for graded books to hone in on valuation based on number of books and current valuations? 

So for example there is roughly 33 graded Adventure #40 books with let’s say an average value of $10,000 a book. The market cap is $330,000. (Of course the model would have to insert each grading level and current value (or estimated value)).
 

ASM 1 has roughly 4300 graded copies with let’s say an average of $10,000 a book. That means it’s market cap is $43,000,000. 
 

Now let’s say a book that was brought up as too common to warrant the price maybe ASM 361. That looks like there is 21000 copies and let’s say the average value based on the number of high grade issues is $600 (and rising prices). So it’s market cap is $12,000,000. 
 

Does that help in determining when a book may be over or undervalued? If ASM 361’s value approaches the market cap of another key book such as ASM 1 wouldn’t that be a warning to investors? Or in the example of Adventure 40, perhaps the first appearance of the Sandman  bears more value then the $330,000 market cap it has.

Of course the more issues that are graded, the higher it pushes up the cap, but it may just keep its current cap and draw down the price of each graded copy. 
 

Maybe this has been thought about or calculated before 🤷🏻

Yes  @valiantman

[Gregd]

On 9/15/2021 at 7:34 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

Yes  @valiantman

Is there a website that tracks that? 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 9/15/2021 at 6:46 PM, Gregd said:

On 9/15/2021 at 6:34 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

Yes  @valiantman

Is there a website that tracks that? 

His website would make crunching the numbers very easy, since you have some sense of direction with the data points, but I don't have it bookmarked etc

[Hamlet]

On 9/13/2021 at 1:21 PM, MGsimba77 said:

Agree 100% with this. People keep knocking the reason these books are appreciating be it spec or whatever. What difference does it make why a value increase happens? If you're looking to sell something that's seen a substantial increase your not going to shortchange yourself because you think people might be buying for dubious reasons. If you own something of increased value are you going to look down on it because you theorize maybe there's a bunch of reckless buyers out there? They may or may not be reckless that's a matter of opinion. Who's to know for sure whether these reasons for market trends are dubious If you wanna buy then waiting for a cool down period could make sense but anticipating bargain basement due to the always impending "crash" is not terribly realistic. The doomsday scenario has been on the docket now for as long as anyone can remember. 

My problem is that I'm not really looking to sell, but it seems financially irresponsible not to sell at these prices.  What was hobby money is now money that could actually impact my lifestyle.  Some of the keys I bought at X are now 10-20X.  Unfortunately, they are also key books in the runs that I consider core to my collecting.  If I sell FF48-50, and other keys out of the run, is there really much point to keeping the rest of the run?  

When goofy speculation pops a book in my Strange Tales run, I'm starting to feel like I should take the cash, but then I'll end up with a swiss cheese collection, so why not just sell the whole run?

So far inertia has kept my collection intact, but I feel like I'm making a pretty big financial mistake by not selling now.