Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[bc]

On 8/17/2023 at 6:39 PM, Microchip said:

I'm completely lost on this result.   It's the second best result for a comic book on the last clink auction 

 

Registry points? 

-bc

Edited August 17, 2023 by bc

[squidmo2000]

[Telegan]

On 8/17/2023 at 5:39 PM, Microchip said:

I'm completely lost on this result.   It's the second best result for a comic book on the last clink auction 

 

If you're talking about the price, I can pretty much guarantee you it's because of the 35 cent variant.  Somebody reeeeeeally wanted it bad.  Well, I guess at least 2 people did. LOL.  Who am I to judge?

[wiparker824]

On 8/17/2023 at 7:25 AM, october said:

This is just me personally, but I am much more "worried" about the price stability of my Silver, Bronze and later comics. There are just SO. MANY. MORE. OF. THEM. Like, truckloads more. Like 1,000x more in a lot of cases. It takes a tremendous amount of demand to hit price equilibrium on FF 48's, ASM 300's and Hulk 181's, but only a tiny fraction for something like Science 2, Weird Mysteries 4 or Cinderella Love 25. With the Marvel Movie Machine sputtering, PPP loans in the rearview and the hype cycle fully shifted I'd rather be holding something rare than something you can find daily on CLink or eBay.

I don’t disagree that the supply on a book like Hulk 181 is much higher than a book like Cinderella Love 25…but the demand is also much much higher. Whether the market is up or down that will always be the case. Wolverine is a household name, most people, even people who regularly buy comics don’t even know what Cinderella Love 25 is. It is a niche market, and while the low supply may always keep the book stable and high value the extraordinary demand is what props up Hulk 181, regardless of supply. That’s not to say Hulk 181 hasn’t been coming down since covid or won’t continue to do so, just that the truckloads of copies come attached with truckloads of demand on that book. 

[whomerjay]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:46 AM, wiparker824 said:

I don’t disagree that the supply on a book like Hulk 181 is much higher than a book like Cinderella Love 25…but the demand is also much much higher. Whether the market is up or down that will always be the case. Wolverine is a household name, most people, even people who regularly buy comics don’t even know what Cinderella Love 25 is. It is a niche market, and while the low supply may always keep the book stable and high value the extraordinary demand is what props up Hulk 181, regardless of supply. That’s not to say Hulk 181 hasn’t been coming down since covid or won’t continue to do so, just that the truckloads of copies come attached with truckloads of demand on that book. 

In the future, what do you think is going to increase more- the demand:supply ratio for Hulk 181, or for Cinderella 25?

Hulk 181 is close to being “priced for perfection.” How much more popular can Wolverine get?   There will probably be more people looking to divest than invest. 

Are the current owners of a Cinderella 13 likely to divest? Are those aware of it likely to forego pursuit? Is it likely that more people, once educated about the book, or tired of the lack of challenge in buying SA/BA/CA/MA, will enter the market for a Cinderella 25?

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by whomerjay

[drbanner]

On 8/18/2023 at 8:41 AM, whomerjay said:

In the future, what do you think is going to increase more- the demand:supply ratio for Hulk 181, or for Cinderella 25?

Hulk 181 is close to being “priced for perfection.” How much more popular can Wolverine get?   There will probably be more people looking to divest than invest. 

Are the current owners of a Cinderella 13 likely to divest? Are those aware of it likely to forego pursuit? Is it likely that more people, once educated about the book, or tired of the lack of challenge in buying SA/BA/CA/MA, will enter the market for a Cinderella 25?

Are GA books like these now priced to perfection, or will they continue to appreciate? It's hard to follow price trends in a single grade for books like these but over the last 15 years I see sales of Cinderella 25 in GPA at:

2009 - 5.5, $750

2013 - 6.0, $2,188

2013 - 3.5, $450

2019 - 2.0, $4,050

2022 - 4.5, $17,400

2023 - 1.5, $4,560

Meanwhile, here's what Hulk 181 in 9.4 has done since 2002:

So Hulk 181 in 9.4 went from ~$2,000 in 2002/2003 to ~$10,000 in 2020 before the pandemic spike when all SA/BA basically doubled in value but are now almost back to 2020 levels..

On the other side of things, GA books like Cinderella 25, Mask 1/2, etc.,. were much more affordable than Silver/Bronze until around 5-6 years ago. I weep looking at the sales prices of all these "classic cover" GA books in GPA from the start of the CGC era until around 2015-ish, but since then they've become expensive. I think someone else commented above that they entered the GA game too late, and now any decent book on their want list is a 4/5-figure book. Most of those same books were 3/4-figure books until recently...so the cost of entry into the GA market now is steep, very steep. This may be an impediment to new collectors entering the GA market, IMHO. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by drbanner

[Bookery]

On 8/18/2023 at 8:41 AM, whomerjay said:

Are the current owners of a Cinderella 13 likely to divest? Are those aware of it likely to forego pursuit? Is it likely that more people, once educated about the book, or tired of the lack of challenge in buying SA/BA/CA/MA, will enter the market for a Cinderella 25?

There is one point that is often over-looked.  There is an assumption with comic collectors that what is now considered desirable art will always be considered desirable art, as if tastes don't vary over generations.

As brilliant as Matt Baker is, will this 

 

be of interest to collectors who grew up on this style of art...?

Edited August 18, 2023 by Bookery

[jimjum12]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:16 AM, Bookery said:

There is one point that is often over-looked.  There is an assumption with comic collectors that what is now considered desirable art will always be considered desirable art, as if tastes don't vary over generations.

As brilliant as Matt Baker is, will this 

 

be of interest to collectors who grew up on this style of art...?

I remember when I slowly began to realize that Jack Kirby, and especially Simon and Kirby had somehow fallen from grace. I remember the early 90's when damn near ANYTHING by Kirby was liquid. I always comforted myself with the fact that many of the young turks who had supplanted him were influenced by him. With coins, the gulf began widening exponentially between the keys and everything else ... it kind of happened here too. GOD BLESS .... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[october]

Lots of good points in this thread. Hard  impossible to determine what the future will hold in terms of art trends, but given the supply, it won't take much more than a handful of deep-pocketed Baker fans to keep prices relatively high on his better work.

Really, it's hard to even compare CL 25 with Hulk 181, as the dynamics are so different. Hulk 181 sells, in most grades, virtually every day or week, which means price discovery happens in real time. Any dip in demand, any rise in demand, will immediately reflect in the auction prices. CL 25 is the complete opposite. Desireable Gold doesn't come up every day, which means price discovery happens far, far less often. Everyone knows, give or take 10-20% for QP/PQ differences, what a 181 is worth in a given grade. Not so with rare Gold, stuff like that has a much larger "market value" range because there are so few sales. Rare Gold also creates pent-up demand. The "if I don't buy this now I won't see another for years" effect. A tiny handful of determined bidders can drive something to the moon, and I suspect the bidding pool on a lot of Gold is pretty small, just not nearly as small as the supply. Hulk 181, in everything other than 9.9, doesn't create that sense of urgency. There will ALWAYS be another copy down the road in short order. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by october

[whomerjay]

On 8/18/2023 at 9:25 AM, drbanner said:

Are GA books like these now priced to perfection, or will they continue to appreciate? It's hard to follow price trends in a single grade for books like these but over the last 15 years I see sales of Cinderella 25 in GPA at:

2009 - 5.5, $750

2013 - 6.0, $2,188

2013 - 3.5, $450

2019 - 2.0, $4,050

2022 - 4.5, $17,400

2023 - 1.5, $4,560

Meanwhile, here's what Hulk 181 in 9.4 has done since 2002:

So Hulk 181 in 9.4 went from ~$2,000 in 2002/2003 to ~$10,000 in 2020 before the pandemic spike when all SA/BA basically doubled in value but are now almost back to 2020 levels..

On the other side of things, GA books like Cinderella 25, Mask 1/2, etc.,. were much more affordable than Silver/Bronze until around 5-6 years ago. I weep looking at the sales prices of all these "classic cover" GA books in GPA from the start of the CGC era until around 2015-ish, but since then they've become expensive. I think someone else commented above that they entered the GA game too late, and now any decent book on their want list is a 4/5-figure book. Most of those same books were 3/4-figure books until recently...so the cost of entry into the GA market now is steep, very steep. This may be an impediment to new collectors entering the GA market, IMHO. 

At some point people will begin to priced out of these types of GA books, but IMO that is not now for most people. Is it more difficult/painful to buy these books now than 5 years ago? Of course. And as prices go up the buyer pool may be lower.  But the issue is what is the book's current trajectory, influenced by supply and demand.  The supply is so low and will likely remain low.  We cannot be sure of future demand, but there seem to be more reasons demand will go up than down.  There are 28 copies of Cinderella 25 on the census. Most who want one will consider almost any grade.  I will bet that in 1 year,  5 years, and 10 years, the appreciation of Cinderella 25 in any grade will be better than that of any grade of IH 181.

[Hamlet]

On 8/18/2023 at 7:41 AM, whomerjay said:

In the future, what do you think is going to increase more- the demand:supply ratio for Hulk 181, or for Cinderella 25?

Hulk 181 is close to being “priced for perfection.” How much more popular can Wolverine get?   There will probably be more people looking to divest than invest. 

Are the current owners of a Cinderella 13 likely to divest? Are those aware of it likely to forego pursuit? Is it likely that more people, once educated about the book, or tired of the lack of challenge in buying SA/BA/CA/MA, will enter the market for a Cinderella 25?

 

 

 

Yeah, I don't think people have realized that there is a potential for a massive fall in common Marvel keys.  We've had an incredible run of sustained, increased interest and demand generated by the Marvel movies.  I believe that peaked with Endgame.  Some of the new movies are doing well, but they aren't the slam dunk they used to be.  I'm actually not bothering to see a pretty large portion of them.  If I'm getting tired of comic book movies as a comic guy, I gotta think there is a real danger that the general public moves on to other things, and that Marvel movies end up being a one every couple of years thing at some point, like other franchises.

The vast increase in value of these keys over the last 5 years could unwind.  Will they?  Probably not, but I would include the possibility in the range of outcomes.

[wiparker824]

On 8/18/2023 at 5:41 AM, whomerjay said:

In the future, what do you think is going to increase more- the demand:supply ratio for Hulk 181, or for Cinderella 25?

Hulk 181 is close to being “priced for perfection.” How much more popular can Wolverine get?   There will probably be more people looking to divest than invest. 

Are the current owners of a Cinderella 13 likely to divest? Are those aware of it likely to forego pursuit? Is it likely that more people, once educated about the book, or tired of the lack of challenge in buying SA/BA/CA/MA, will enter the market for a Cinderella 25?

 

 

 

Hard to say for sure but in terms of “how much more popular is Wolverine going to get” I don’t know that he is with today’s collector base. But the way to think of it long term is - what will the next generation who grew up in the MCU era going be buying when they have adult money? Their nostalgic childhood characters they grew up with or a book like Cinderella 25? By and large I’d bet on them buying Wolverine’s 1st appearance  over Cinderella 25. 

[drbanner]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:16 PM, Hamlet said:

The vast increase in value of these keys over the last 5 years could unwind.  Will they?  Probably not, but I would include the possibility in the range of outcomes.

The vast increase in value of Marvel Silver and Bronze Age keys over the last 5 years has already unwound, blue chip books like Amazing Fantasy 15 and X-men 1 are currently selling in some grades for barely more than half what they were  selling for in 2021/2022. The only question is will they fall below 2019/2020 (pre-pandemic) levels? We'll see. 

[whomerjay]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:30 PM, wiparker824 said:

Hard to say for sure but in terms of “how much more popular is Wolverine going to get” I don’t know that he is with today’s collector base. But the way to think of it long term is - what will the next generation who grew up in the MCU era going be buying when they have adult money? Their nostalgic childhood characters they grew up with or a book like Cinderella 25? By and large I’d bet on them buying Wolverine’s 1st appearance  over Cinderella 25. 

Among the comic-buying population, will they be buying IH 181 over Cinderella 25 at a 17149:28 ratio?

[wiparker824]

On 8/18/2023 at 9:52 AM, whomerjay said:

Among the comic-buying population, will they be buying IH 181 over Cinderella 25 at a 17149:28 ratio?

About 600:1? So the question is will Wolverine be 600x more popular than a romance book from the 1950’s (albeit with a classic Baker cover) particularly with the kids growing up on MCU, Disney+, etc? Quite possibly, yes. 

[Hamlet]

On 8/18/2023 at 11:33 AM, drbanner said:

The vast increase in value of Marvel Silver and Bronze Age keys over the last 5 years has already unwound, blue chip books like Amazing Fantasy 15 and X-men 1 are currently selling in some grades for barely more than half what they were  selling for in 2021/2022. The only question is will they fall below 2019/2020 (pre-pandemic) levels? We'll see. 

I really should have said more like 10 years.  Think about the demand and price increases since the beginning of the Marvel movies.  The first Iron Man movie came out in 2010.  Most key books today are selling for nearly an order of magnitude more than they were before then.  If interest wanes to something between the interest in Endgame and the interest in Iron Man, we could see a real ugly move downward in prices, especially for books that are not truly top tier, and are super common.

Take a CGC 7.5 Fantastic Four 48.  I own that book.  I bought it sometime around 2005 ( give or take ) for something like $350.  That was a really good deal at the time, but it probably wasn't more than a $500 book.  According to GPA, it was about a $1000 book in 2017.  At the top of the Covid peak it was over $6000.  The last sale was $3600. 

What has changed since 2017 that would triple the value of this book?  Mostly just increased popular demand from the movies.  If that demand fades somewhat, I don't see any reason that this book couldn't drop back down to $1200-1500 again.  It is a super common book in that grade.  Is there a reason that demand for that book will be higher in the future than it was in 2017?  I'm not sure that there is.

 

 

 

 

[dikran]

If you think ComicLink results are bad, you guys should check out Collectors Comics' latest auction... bloodbath, especially in the sub 100$ books. Lots of good stuff sitting at 50% of last GPA.

[wiparker824]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:21 AM, dikran said:

If you think ComicLink results are bad, you guys should check out Collectors Comics' latest auction... bloodbath, especially in the sub 100$ books. Lots of good stuff sitting at 50% of last GPA.

“Sitting at” …those auctions haven’t ended, they use the eBay style to allow sniping. Bids go up a lot in the final seconds. 

[dikran]

On 8/18/2023 at 1:23 PM, wiparker824 said:

“Sitting at” …those auctions haven’t ended, they use the eBay style to allow sniping. Bids go up a lot in the final seconds. 

I certainly hope so... my books are nowhere near where they ''should'' be and it's worrying.

[buttock]

On 8/17/2023 at 4:39 PM, Microchip said:

I'm completely lost on this result.   It's the second best result for a comic book on the last clink auction 

 

There are only 3 of these on the census, very tough book, and if you're trying to complete the 35 cent variant set, you may not get another chance for 10 years.  This is a collector purchase, not an investor purchase.