Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Microchip]

On 10/6/2023 at 9:07 AM, Pantodude said:

Some info is better than no info, so I'm not knocking the vid.  Just trying put the referenced vid in perspective. Isn't that Swag "comic book index" video above supposed to track the most recent GPA sale of the top 100 SOLD (by volume) books in each of the SA, BA and CA?  It's a bit silly that the video does not identify the 100 books relied upon for the graphs, but we can figure out what's NOT included.  Unless I am misinterpeting his model, his data cannot possibly track most, if any, of what collectors/dealers/buyers tradionally consider the top 50 or top 100 books in the SA. 

 

Tha was a big issue with the video.   We all know of books that continuing in their upward price trajectory from 2021, and 2022.   There are plenty of books that have cooled off doe certain, the his graphs are only a limited piece of the overall story out there right now.  

[Pantodude]

On 10/5/2023 at 8:15 PM, Microchip said:

Tha was a big issue with the video.   We all know of books that continuing in their upward price trajectory from 2021, and 2022.   There are plenty of books that have cooled off doe certain, the his graphs are only a limited piece of the overall story out there right now.  

Right. I referred to early SA keys, to start the discussion. But the vid likely also does not track any high-grade SA, BA, and CA books, key or not, as they are just too uncommon to make any sales-volume-based cut.  

Edited October 6, 2023 by Pantodude

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 10/5/2023 at 5:32 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I find your remarks offensive.

these are books I collect and 9.8 is the grade I prefer for these books.  I am no speculator or flipper. I have at least a dozen of each of these books because I grew up reading ASM and I like these books.

Furthermore, if you want to measure the health of the overall comic book marketplace, go ahead and spend your own time to do it.

Err just because you’re offended doesn’t mean he isn’t right. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/5/2023 at 9:06 PM, MyNameIsLegion said:

Err just because you’re offended doesn’t mean he isn’t right. 

Go troll someone else

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 10/5/2023 at 8:08 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Go troll someone else

Ok man, but your cognitive dissonance over wasting vast sums of money on multiple copies of “9.8” books doesn’t warrant you’re thin skinned response to @lou_fine for presenting a valid theory on a message board, in a topic dedicated to that very subject. Have a blessed day. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by MyNameIsLegion

[CGC Mike]

On 10/5/2023 at 6:32 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I find your remarks offensive.

these are books I collect and 9.8 is the grade I prefer for these books.  I am no speculator or flipper. I have at least a dozen of each of these books because I grew up reading ASM and I like these books.

Furthermore, if you want to measure the health of the overall comic book marketplace, go ahead and spend your own time to do it.

 

On 10/5/2023 at 9:08 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Go troll someone else

These 2 posts are uncalled for.  If this continues, your posting privileges for this topic will be revoked.

[lou_fine]

On 10/5/2023 at 3:32 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I find your remarks offensive.

these are books I collect and 9.8 is the grade I prefer for these books.  I am no speculator or flipper. I have at least a dozen of each of these books because I grew up reading ASM and I like these books.

Sorry that you had read my post as being offensive to you or any other boardie because it was certainly not meant that way.  

The only point that I was trying to make is that the overall comic book market is made up of many components, with the CGC 9.8 market being one of these subsets and one that seems to get a lot of the "headlines".  Unfortunately for collectors in this particular subset of the market, this is where the overwhelming majority of the speculators or traders tend to play in.  As such, if you are a collector in this part of the marketplace, you are more likely to be subject to the more volatile price movements of the comic book marketplace, both positive and negative.  

It's really a case of to each their own, and if you are in the comic book marketplace whether it be as a long term collector, speculator, trader, or what have you, it's all good to me as long as you enjoy and have fun with what you are doing.  

[jimjum12]

On 10/5/2023 at 11:37 PM, lou_fine said:

Sorry that you had read my post as being offensive to you or any other boardie because it was certainly not meant that way.  

The only point that I was trying to make is that the overall comic book market is made up of many components, with the CGC 9.8 market being one of these subsets and one that seems to get a lot of the "headlines".  Unfortunately for collectors in this particular subset of the market, this is where the overwhelming majority of the speculators or traders tend to play in.  As such, if you are a collector in this part of the marketplace, you are more likely to be subject to the more volatile price movements of the comic book marketplace, both positive and negative.  

It's really a case of to each their own, and if you are in the comic book marketplace whether it be as a long term collector, speculator, trader, or what have you, it's all good to me as long as you enjoy and have fun with what you are doing.  

... There are actually services that have been in place almost as long as CGC has been open, that specialize in culling raw 9.8's, slabbing them and provided to people who have subscriptions for a 9.8 of each new issue of a title as it is released. This is a large but quiet part of the hobby. These are as much true collectors as anyone, a vestige of the original "run collector" who just wanted one of each of something they loved. This existed outside of the "value" system in place today ... the "what is my book going to be worth?" ... this is a growth of a person going to the LCS or Newstand and grabbing the prettiest copy of their favorite runs to add to the rest. We've been reading Market Reports for so long now, we have forgotten about the guys who gladly paid a thousand times cover, just so they could have the ones they missed, no thought at ALL about ever selling it. In essence, if we reject the 9.8 market, we reject what made the comic hobby robust and vibrant all along. The type of collector who seeks out just any shape is probably in the minority if we're talking percentage of total head count. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

 

...I'm not sure what the 9.8 subscription service costs now, but I think it was $35 per, or something like that, when it started. The new distribution through Penguin makes multiple raw 9.8's unlikely. Product damage with today's output is VERY common, at least around here. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by jimjum12

[MyNameIsLegion]

Well I think the 9.8 money is no object collectors play into it, as not all necessarily have the funds to do it and there are levels of the food chain using the buy press flip routine to fund their own 9.8, registry, signature or theme personal collecting goals. The speculation for profit as well as raising capital to buy comics is a natural progression of that. As they exit the market, prices come down, as boomers exit the hobby and even this mortal coil, prices come down. It’s not a matter of if but when. Just watch reruns of antique roadshow where they show 2007 prices and 2023 prices on a wide range of collectibles. Most things are flat (which means they lost money against inflation) or down 30-80%. Very few things are up, and usually by an anemic amount. The pandemic was the perfect set of circumstances to create an artificially inflated rise but it was destined to level out and contract anyway. We are headed back to 2019, which means with inflation it’s really 2016. We might not be done yet. No one wants it’ to be true for a whole host of reasons, but that’s wishful thinking and self delusion 

Edited October 6, 2023 by MyNameIsLegion

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 10/6/2023 at 3:12 AM, jimjum12 said:

... There are actually services that have been in place almost as long as CGC has been open, that specialize in culling raw 9.8's, slabbing them and provided to people who have subscriptions for a 9.8 of each new issue of a title as it is released. This is a large but quiet part of the hobby. These are as much true collectors as anyone, a vestige of the original "run collector" who just wanted one of each of something they loved. This existed outside of the "value" system in place today ... the "what is my book going to be worth?" ... this is a growth of a person going to the LCS or Newstand and grabbing the prettiest copy of their favorite runs to add to the rest. We've been reading Market Reports for so long now, we have forgotten about the guys who gladly paid a thousand times cover, just so they could have the ones they missed, no thought at ALL about ever selling it. In essence, if we reject the 9.8 market, we reject what made the comic hobby robust and vibrant all along. The type of collector who seeks out just any shape is probably in the minority if we're talking percentage of total head count. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

 

...I'm not sure what the 9.8 subscription service costs now, but I think it was $35 per, or something like that, when it started. The new distribution through Penguin makes multiple raw 9.8's unlikely. Product damage with today's output is VERY common, at least around here. 

I very muck like penguins but, as you note, Penguin Random House (PRH) stinks as far as delivering undamaged comic books to market; perhaps Marvel Comics is the prime example. IDW has delivered damaged comic books for years in my experience because of, "I'll say," crappy cover stock so PRH is par for the course with them. I'll see how Dark Horse comics start arriving now that PRH is distributing them. I believe they also distribute DC Comics' collected works but another board member may know more about that.

[whomerjay]

On 10/6/2023 at 3:12 AM, jimjum12 said:

... There are actually services that have been in place almost as long as CGC has been open, that specialize in culling raw 9.8's, slabbing them and provided to people who have subscriptions for a 9.8 of each new issue of a title as it is released. This is a large but quiet part of the hobby. These are as much true collectors as anyone, a vestige of the original "run collector" who just wanted one of each of something they loved. This existed outside of the "value" system in place today ... the "what is my book going to be worth?" ... this is a growth of a person going to the LCS or Newstand and grabbing the prettiest copy of their favorite runs to add to the rest. We've been reading Market Reports for so long now, we have forgotten about the guys who gladly paid a thousand times cover, just so they could have the ones they missed, no thought at ALL about ever selling it. In essence, if we reject the 9.8 market, we reject what made the comic hobby robust and vibrant all along. The type of collector who seeks out just any shape is probably in the minority if we're talking percentage of total head count. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

 

...I'm not sure what the 9.8 subscription service costs now, but I think it was $35 per, or something like that, when it started. The new distribution through Penguin makes multiple raw 9.8's unlikely. Product damage with today's output is VERY common, at least around here. 

I thought those CGC 9.8 services were  used mostly by those looking to sell them. At least I assumed that was the logic behind the business. 

I imagine there are a lot of collectors who want their collection copies of relatively new books to be CGC 9.8 slabs. And there is an obvious appeal to this, in addition to making the entire collection very liquid when it’s time to get out.But everything (new) I have bought for my collection since the late seventies is sitting raw in a box. Most are 9.8s. I love the the idea of not having spent thousands (more like tens of thousands)on slabbing,  and can store 5 times as many books in the same amount of space. And of course read them if I like.

another thing is I hate the idea of buying a book for my collection that may have been pressed. I don’t think anyone knows for sure what the long term effect a press has on a book (the proper experiment has yet to be done or has concluded) but it’s a horrifying thought that pressed books will start to show press-induced flaws over time. 
 

Edited October 6, 2023 by whomerjay

[1Cool]

On 10/5/2023 at 6:07 PM, Pantodude said:

Some info is better than no info, so I'm not knocking the vid.  Just trying put the referenced vid in perspective. Isn't that Swag "comic book index" video above supposed to track the most recent GPA sale of the top 100 SOLD (by volume) books in each of the SA, BA and CA?  It's a bit silly that the video does not identify the 100 books relied upon for the graphs, but we can figure out what's NOT included.  Unless I am misinterpeting his model, his data cannot possibly track most, if any, of what collectors/dealers/buyers tradionally consider the top 50 or top 100 books in the SA. 

Because the top books of the SA are typically the early SA keys, they are significantly less common than mid- to late-SA books and thus unlikely to make Swag's cut, which is based on highest volume of sales.  ASM#73 sells more often than IH#1, for example.  They are also more expensive than non-key and/or later SA books, so Swag can't possibly have included them in what he refers to top-100 sold for the SA.  Swag's version of top 100 SA books totaled  $46,500 for ALL 100 books.  That's just one low-mid grade AF15,  or one mid-grade IH#1 or FF#1, so we know he can't be talking about THOSE books or anything close to those, like XM1, TOS39, FF5, etc.  The big SA keys have seen better days, but this vid is not using their data.  That said, the vid is informative, in the right context.  

 

Good point - I originally misread this info and thought it was the top 100 desired books and he kept track of the GPA prices for those books but it does say he is grabbing the most sold books which will probably grab a couple low grade mega key books like X-Men 1 since they do come up often and wouldn't cost an arm and a leg.  But in general the trend for the top 100 selling books for the different eras is very evident but it doesn't include every possible book for sure.  But as long as he uses the same procedure to get data then it's a very good snap shot of what has been going on for the last decade or so. 

I do think his statement that the Silver Age have come back to the projected values while the Bronze / Copper books are lower than would be projected is a good litmus test of the analyses.  Those that track books can see this to be true pretty much across the board where the newer the book the harder the correction as been (to the point they could be seen as a deal based on past prices especially when you consider inflation).

[alexgross.com]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:57 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

At least this 9.8 got above the $100 mark.

word is he will be appearing in the next avengers movie. whether it is as a member of the team, or the villain, no one seems to know yet. 

[MisterX]

On 10/6/2023 at 10:03 AM, alexgross.com said:

word is he will be appearing in the next avengers movie. whether it is as a member of the team, or the villain, no one seems to know yet. 

Interesting -- I'd heard he's appearing as a force ghost in the next Star Wars movie.

[WolverineX]

It is interesting that a Cerebus 1 cgc 6.0 sold for $4500.  Seems unusually strong for that book.  

[1Cool]

On 10/6/2023 at 3:22 PM, WolverineX said:

It is interesting that a Cerebus 1 cgc 6.0 sold for $4500.  Seems unusually strong for that book.  

Seems like an outlier since there is a CGC 7.0 on E-bay (a MCS book) that is listed for $4550.  Weird things happen in pretty much every auction especially when the books are decently rare.  I'd not put much stock in it other than congratulating the seller.

[LOC Collectibles]

Our last group of auctions have been seeing fantastic results on raw Golden to Bronze age key books and even some Copper has been going strong recently. There are some hungry buyers out there for quality raw material. We usually sell a raw book in the same grade for higher than if it was slabbed. 

[LOC Collectibles]

Here are a few highlights from our past auction..

MARVEL COMICS AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #129 HIGHER GRADE | Live and Online Auctions on HiBid.com

MARVEL COMICS JOURNEY INTO MYSTERY #85 SILVER AGE | Live and Online Auctions on HiBid.com

To be fair, we're the top of the market when it comes to raw keys in the $100-2500 range and I'd put that up against anyone in the business.

Edited October 8, 2023 by LOC Collectibles

[Motor City Rob]

On 10/5/2023 at 6:07 PM, Pantodude said:

Some info is better than no info, so I'm not knocking the vid.  Just trying put the referenced vid in perspective. Isn't that Swag "comic book index" video above supposed to track the most recent GPA sale of the top 100 SOLD (by volume) books in each of the SA, BA and CA?  It's a bit silly that the video does not identify the 100 books relied upon for the graphs, but we can figure out what's NOT included.  Unless I am misinterpeting his model, his data cannot possibly track most, if any, of what collectors/dealers/buyers tradionally consider the top 50 or top 100 books in the SA. 

Because the top books of the SA are typically the early SA keys, they are significantly less common than mid- to late-SA books and thus unlikely to make Swag's cut, which is based on highest volume of sales.  ASM#73 sells more often than IH#1, for example.  They are also more expensive than non-key and/or later SA books, so Swag can't possibly have included them in what he refers to top-100 sold for the SA.  Swag's version of top 100 SA books totaled  $46,500 for ALL 100 books.  That's just one low-mid grade AF15,  or one mid-grade IH#1 or FF#1, so we know he can't be talking about THOSE books or anything close to those, like XM1, TOS39, FF5, etc.  The big SA keys have seen better days, but this vid is not using their data.  That said, the vid is informative, in the right context.  

 

I agree with you. I've asked Swaggle multiple times if he can share the list of books he's using. Never received a response. There are some other videos out there of detailed analysis of individual key issues. I find those to be more useful, because the guy uses every grade with a recent sale and shows a 3 year trend averging all of those grades.  Then he does update videos of those books after a month or two of new data has come in. Also explains why some months have a larger than normal spike or drop. That being said, I still watch the swaggle index video each month. I just skip to the latest data points, so I'm done with the video in 30 seconds. Hope he chooses to share details in the future. 

[Pantodude]

On 10/8/2023 at 11:17 PM, Motor City Rob said:

I've asked Swaggle multiple times if he can share the list of books he's using. Never received a response.

Right.  Without knowing the books included, his indexes are mostly useless to me, especially after figuring out they likely don't include my books anyway.  But I'll likely remain curious, becaues I like data-driven discussions.