Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[WolverineX]

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/23/2022 at 12:56 PM, ChasingKingKirby said:

Bronze is definitely more available than silver, and I agree there's plenty of copies out there, though anyone with 9.8 Spotlight 5s would be a fool not to sub em.  Since apparently they're worth a quarter of a million dollars.  (!!!!)

But next year it will be worth $1.5 million!  Who would be the fool then? 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:45 PM, ChasingKingKirby said:

Here's some other examples:

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DGreen%2BLantern%2B76%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1617065&id=1617065&itemType=0

$500 under GPA

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DGreen%2BLantern%2B76%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1617943&id=1617943&itemType=0

$600 under GPA

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DAvengers%2B1%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1608077&id=1608077&itemType=0

$500 under GPA

Just to expand on your last example (Avengers #1 4.0)

2018 Average $2415

2019 Average $2648

2020 Average $2489

2021 Average $4947

$500 of GPA? How about $2500 or more off GPA?  I think that is where we are heading.  Stock Market today saw some signs of capitulation.  It will not be long before that mentality spreads throughout the investment world.  Hold on to your butts!

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/23/2022 at 3:45 PM, ChasingKingKirby said:

Here's some other examples:

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DGreen%2BLantern%2B76%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1617065&id=1617065&itemType=0

$500 under GPA

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DGreen%2BLantern%2B76%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1617943&id=1617943&itemType=0

$600 under GPA

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FPreviewCode%3D2022sept%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3DAvengers%2B1%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1608077&id=1608077&itemType=0

$500 under GPA

Quick tip for you or anyone else who wants to share (or hang onto) a link to a book on ComicLink.  The only thing you need after the "?" is the book ID.  The rest is junk.

So for example, the first link above can be shortened to the following and it still works:

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?id=1617065

[buttock]

On 9/23/2022 at 2:10 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Just to expand on your last example (Avengers #1 4.0)

2018 Average $2415

2019 Average $2648

2020 Average $2489

2021 Average $4947

$500 of GPA? How about $2500 or more off GPA?  I think that is where we are heading.  Stock Market today saw some signs of capitulation.  It will not be long before that mentality spreads throughout the investment world.  Hold on to your butts!

The real message here is that the 2021 prices for SA Marvels weren't reality.  That Clink sale is still $1500 or so above the average for 2018-2020, which for anyone in the buy and hold realm is progress.  I was buying SA Marvels from 2017-20, then when prices instantly tripled it was obvious to me that the right move was to sell.  

[lou_fine]

On 9/23/2022 at 11:15 AM, ChasingKingKirby said:

The last couple years was a perfect time to cash these in, why weren't they subbed if there are so many around?

One of the main problems is that in reality, especially for raw collected books, the comic book market is not that liquid when it comes to timing. 

I talked to quite a few collectors who saw some of these rather crazy prices from 2021, thought about it for awhile, and then decided to send their books in for slabbing.  Well, guess what, they either just got them back recently or are still waiting for them to return from that huge overflowing CCS/CGC long term storage facility in Florida.     

Needless to say, in the interim, the prices have nose-dived for these relatively common hot to trot so-called key books from the BA and CA from their stratospheric highs of last year.    

[lou_fine]

On 9/23/2022 at 7:06 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

an entire run of golden age Marvel Mystery Comics went for big money last night in a CC auction.........

Anyway, given today's financial conditions, I didn't know how this run would fare.  I figured the Marvel 1 book, in 6.0, would go for $300-$400k, but it blew right past that and hammered at $729k.  After that, the remaining MMC books I followed (the ones depicting WWII covers) all went higher than I expected.  

Not really too much of a surprise here with the Marvel Mystery run as these books hardly ever comes to market, and when you see them, it's probably the one and only chance you are going to have at obtaining a copy for some of these issues as you just might have to wait years to see another copy come into the marketplace.  Which means if you want some, you just might have to pay multiples to condition guide for them, even if they are in Restored condition which many of these were.    

So very much unlike the so-called hot BA and CA key or even semi-key books where prices blew up on them so quickly to the point of unsustainability last year.  Buyers have possibly have finally come to the realization that there are multiple copies of these books showing up in every single auction with many more to come as they work their way through the CCS/CGC storage warehouse.  Certainly no need to bid the farm on these relatively common "hot" books becaue if you miss it this time, just wait a few weeks and it's bound to show up in another one of these auctions.  Clearly one of the primary reasons why so many of these books have dropped so far from their lofty highs of last year and now selling for even lower than guide since Overstreet overreacted and jacked the prices way too high in his new guide on many of these books here.    

[lou_fine]

On 9/22/2022 at 6:07 PM, mjoeyoung said:

People were bidding the GRRs up to outrageous prices.

Which auction site was this in terms of the GRR's and were they for unsealed graded copies or were they for still original sealed copies?  

[lou_fine]

On 9/23/2022 at 8:58 AM, BlowUpTheMoon said:

Sellers in the recent ComicLink auction took a bloodbath. 

I believe this really depends on when these particular sellers had purchased their books, as anything brought from more than a few years ago should still work out just fine for them.  

[lizards2]

On 9/23/2022 at 10:12 PM, lou_fine said:

One of the main problems is that in reality, especially for raw collected books, the comic book market is not that liquid when it comes to timing. 

I talked to quite a few collectors who saw some of these rather crazy prices from 2021, thought about it for awhile, and then decided to send their books in for slabbing.  Well, guess what, they either just got them back recently or are still waiting for them to return from that huge overflowing CCS/CGC long term storage facility in Florida.     

Needless to say, in the interim, the prices have nose-dived for these relatively common hot to trot so-called key books from the BA and CA from their stratospheric highs of last year.    

One of the main problems is reality. I recommend you all start living in it.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:56 AM, lizards2 said:

One of the main problems is reality. I recommend you all start living in it.

In that vein, I still see the prices asked by some dealers as, in my income bracket, wishful thinking. However, individuals, perhaps in higher income brackets than I, are purchasing many of said comic books. Accordingly, I am the one "wishful thinking" but I can't fathom spending two or three times what a comic book was worth in around 2020 and, likely, getting stuck with a "lemon" when I eventually decide to sell it.

[Stefan_W]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:12 AM, lou_fine said:

One of the main problems is that in reality, especially for raw collected books, the comic book market is not that liquid when it comes to timing. 

I talked to quite a few collectors who saw some of these rather crazy prices from 2021, thought about it for awhile, and then decided to send their books in for slabbing.  Well, guess what, they either just got them back recently or are still waiting for them to return from that huge overflowing CCS/CGC long term storage facility in Florida.     

Needless to say, in the interim, the prices have nose-dived for these relatively common hot to trot so-called key books from the BA and CA from their stratospheric highs of last year.    

This is exactly right. When comic prices were going up and up in 2021 I sent in a lot of books that were "heating up" on the hot comics lists. By the time I got them back most were already well on the way to decline and I doubt I will see my money back on them. I think the best bet on those types of books is a quick raw sale that can be pulled off before people lose interest and move on to the next spec book. Live and learn.

On the topic, IMO it is really easy to fall into the trap of assuming the market will stay the way it is. So in a hot market it is easy to assume it will keep going up, and in a sluggish market like we have right now there is probably a tendency to assume it will keep dropping. The people who do the best will ride the highs and lows and focus on the bigger picture and long term trends. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Stefan_W

[alexgross.com]

On 9/22/2022 at 9:55 AM, blazingbob said:

But as many believe don't the auction house sales represent the "True Market".

Fixed priced sales by Dealers are not a true representation they say.

If I ask $1 million for a book it must be GOD (Greedy Old Dealer) pricing it,  if the auction house sells the same book for $1 Million it is a true reflection of the market because supposedly two "real" bidders wanted it.

 

i'm not sure what your grounds for complaint are- since we seem to be in agreement that many key book auction results are "gamed," who benefits more than dealers? every time a new high is recorded on gpa from halperage or metropolis (i mean CC) you can then list and possibly sell your copy for an even higher price. 

the only ones getting hosed here are the customers imho. sorry you have to deal with us trying to haggle.

[lou_fine]

On 9/24/2022 at 6:03 AM, Stefan_W said:

The people who do the best will ride the highs and lows and focus on the bigger picture and long term trends. 

Yes indeed, as it's just so much more fun and less stressful to be a long term collector who spends time in the market, as opposed to being a speculator or flipper who's always trying to time the ups and downs of the marketplace.    

[ThothAmon]

On 9/24/2022 at 6:42 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

I can't fathom spending two or three times what a comic book was worth in around 2020 and, likely, getting stuck with a "lemon" when I eventually decide to sell it.

If you buy books monthly for let’s say 45 years or so you overpaid for many but underpaid for many more. Dollar cost averaging has worked with the added benefit of owing less taxes on your “lemons”. 

[DC#]

I will likely be posting the CL session 1 recap tomorrow - didn’t even bother trying to recap the hundreds of other listings in later sessions.    No conclusions yet but did notice some lower prices on early ASM

My nominally informed opinion of the market.   
- I do think things are going to get worse.   Macro economics will dictate and the headwinds don’t look favorable for the next year at a minimum. (Look up recent comments by Larry summers).    And my sentiment is about comic market overall - there will always be exceptions and outliers 

- for sellers, I believe the phrase is called “chasing the market down”     A seller thinks a book is worth $1500 and doesn’t accept an offer for $1350.   By time seller agrees to reprice to $1400 the market has already set a new price at $1200. And on and on.   You hear real estate agents talk about it.   I always assumed dealers were less susceptible (less emotional about the inventory) to this phenomenon but maybe dealers around here could opine. 

- for buyers, it was probably easy to get comfortable with “overpaying” in a rising market as the “will be worth more in the future” was likely just weeks away.    Takes a strong constitution (or balance sheet) to drop 4 or 5 or 6 figures on a comic book and not worry about whether you have timed the bottom.  

As for me - I have been a net buyer for the past 4-5 years but will confess to slowing down especially on bigger ticket items.  Found myself buying a lot of raw bronze and copper of no particular note or quality just to feed the addiction.   Or 9.8 slabs of books that I was just pissed my personal childhood copy only got a 9.6 - Buying out of spite!    

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:56 PM, DC# said:

just to feed the addiction

That’s an apt description for a few wrong turns I’ve taken

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:02 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

On 9/24/2022 at 12:56 PM, DC# said:

just to feed the addiction

That’s an apt description for a few wrong turns I’ve taken

Me too. I've been pretty resolute about Silver and newer stuff.  I don't really buy 9.8s so I KNOW I'll see the books I want again.  It is the Golden Age stuff where I've said "screw it" on a few things and paid more than I wanted.

[DC#]

On 9/24/2022 at 12:02 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

That’s an apt description for a few wrong turns I’ve taken

Part of my addiction is I just love the smell of those 70s and 80s books…..just a huge sensory memory.   Yes - you might catch me with a literal nose in the book from time to time 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/23/2022 at 11:34 PM, lou_fine said:

On 9/22/2022 at 7:07 PM, mjoeyoung said:

People were bidding the GRRs up to outrageous prices.

Which auction site was this in terms of the GRR's and were they for unsealed graded copies or were they for still original sealed copies?  

The recently closed Comic Connect auction.

An ASM#1 2.5 for $4025 and a JIM#83 1.5 for $1782

These are probably just mistakes, I don't think the price advanced on the day of the auction.  They really should put that they are reprints in the TITLE to avoid any mistakes.