Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 41 41

[1Cool]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:25 PM, VintageComics said:

There are lots of areas of the market I don't have a grasp on. I don't think I know everything. I just talk to people...but not that many. I have a good feel for how sliding scales work and I just factor all the information into my cranial computer and it spits out gut feelings that are usually right. 

For example, I don't weigh all people's opinions the same when I talk to them. I take into account what I know about them, but when a few solid, big dealers who don't discount much no matter how much you buy from them started to tell me the market has rebounded, it rung true to me. 

Harley is very to the point, but he's also a straight shooter. He answers your questions directly. I like Harley. He's actually a genuinely good guy as far as I'm concerned. 

Well, I do feel bad for the people who always challenge me and end up being wrong. 

Thank you for the insight into your thoughts.  I'm not as bullish as you but I do think things are levelling off as a bunch of books get back to 2019 levels.  Speculating still is basically dead compared to what it was but quality books don't seem to be dropping as much.  It will be interesting to see how things look at Baltimore next week in terms of the pre-show buying and price cuts necessary to sell non key books.

Edited September 11 by 1Cool

[ajcomics]

New here, but enjoying reading this topic. Here's an interesting video that just came out yesterday. Gives a good price analysis on some big keys.

https://youtu.be/vgw7WI0O32I?si=4mDVISaRav6a6lv6

[Robot Man]

On 9/11/2024 at 5:31 AM, 1Cool said:

Thank you for the insight into your thoughts.  I'm not as bullish as you but I do think things are levelling off as a bunch of books get back to 2019 levels.  Speculating still is basically dead compared to what it was but quality books don't seem to not be dropping as much.  It will be interesting to see how things look at Baltimore next week in terms of the pre-show buying and price cuts necessary to sell non key books.

Has been interesting at West Coast shows this past year. There has been a huge drop off in pre-show buying. I heard this from several large dealers. Traditionally, this had always been a big deal. The instability of the market has tightened up it seems. Sales seem to still be OK but folks are finding ways to move books. 

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 10:38 AM, Robot Man said:

Has been interesting at West Coast shows this past year. There has been a huge drop off in pre-show buying. I heard this from several large dealers. Traditionally, this had always been a big deal. The instability of the market has tightened up it seems. Sales seem to still be OK but folks are finding ways to move books. 

It really depends on who you ask and what type of books the dealers carry.  We lost a large batch of dealers here in the Ohio area over the last year since books were not selling for them which prompted a bunch of Michigan and some PA dealers to fill their spots at local cons.  The pre-selling has basically ground to a halt which tells me there isn't hot books to search for and dealers are having trouble selling books and have plenty of backstock.  It's been a year since I went to a big Con and last year was decent in terms of finding books at Baltimore so my hopes are up.  You really have to be selective when buying books if prices are not increasing or even falling.

[Robot Man]

On 9/11/2024 at 8:04 AM, 1Cool said:

It really depends on who you ask and what type of books the dealers carry.  We lost a large batch of dealers here in the Ohio area over the last year since books were not selling for them which prompted a bunch of Michigan and some PA dealers to fill their spots at local cons.  The pre-selling has basically ground to a halt which tells me there isn't hot books to search for and dealers are having trouble selling books and have plenty of backstock.  It's been a year since I went to a big Con and last year was decent in terms of finding books at Baltimore so my hopes are up.  You really have to be selective when buying books if prices are not increasing or even falling.

It is a buyer’s market right now. I think a lot of buyer’s are waiting for the bottom to hit. Buyer’s are buying but being very selective. I know I am. I will pay up for books I really want and rarely see but buying a lot less “impulse” books I used to buy unless they are too cheap to leave. Baltimore has always been a buyer’s paradise…

I think dealers have tightened up a lot buying wise due to tight margins and potential future loss. 

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:13 AM, Robot Man said:

It is a buyer’s market right now. I think a lot of buyer’s are waiting for the bottom to hit. Buyer’s are buying but being very selective. I know I am. I will pay up for books I really want and rarely see but buying a lot less “impulse” books I used to buy unless they are too cheap to leave. Baltimore has always been a buyer’s paradise…

I think dealers have tightened up a lot buying wise due to tight margins and potential future loss. 

I agree - dealers tightening in terms of buying prices doesn't usually indicate a rebounding market but of course each dealer has a unique market.  I've noticed a really soft market here on the boards and on e-bay so it will be nice to see how the big con dealers are faring.

[EastEnd1]

Can't say I'm understanding why market trends at conventions should be any different than market trends at auction houses.  And even if they were, I'd imagine it would self-correct fairly quickly.  The dollar is always going to chase the best product for the lowest price.    

[Robot Man]

On 9/11/2024 at 8:26 AM, 1Cool said:

I agree - dealers tightening in terms of buying prices doesn't usually indicate a rebounding market but of course each dealer has a unique market.  I've noticed a really soft market here on the boards and on e-bay so it will be nice to see how the big con dealers are faring.

I have also seen the market soften on the boards and eBay. (where the  majority of my buying has been for a while).

The problem with show dealers (in all forms of collectibles) is you rarely hear about slow sales. Not many want to say they did bad and if they do, it is usually the fault of the promoters or “cheap buyers”. It’s hard to look in the mirror and acknowledge the fact that they might have blown it themselves. 

 

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:33 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Can't say I'm understanding why market trends at conventions should be any different than market trends at auction houses.  And even if they were, I'd imagine it would self-correct fairly quickly.  The dollar is always going to chase the best product for the lowest price.    

Auction houses typically only get graded books so the number of impulse buyers is very low just due to the auction format and being a stand alone website.  Con dealers have a ton of raw books that could be the first time they have seen the light of day in decades especially the big cons where dealers hold back collections to bring in the customers.  A few people may get caught up in a bidding frenzy for a few books on ComicLink but I see a lot of impulse purchases at Cons that are not the best value just because the book is in hand and maybe the person doesn't even have a computer (Boomers!).  Big Con dealers are a breed of their own in terms of knowing the market and being able to maximize the prices they can get for books (if people are buying - if not the 50% signs start popping up).  

Edited September 11 by 1Cool

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:34 AM, Robot Man said:

I have also seen the market soften on the boards and eBay. (where the  majority of my buying has been for a while).

The problem with show dealers (in all forms of collectibles) is you rarely hear about slow sales. Not many want to say they did bad and if they do, it is usually the fault of the promoters or “cheap buyers”. It’s hard to look in the mirror and acknowledge the fact that they might have blown it themselves. 

 

People may not like to talk about slow sales but it's pretty evident when you visit their booth over 2 days and things just look slow in terms of books exchanging hands and the faces of the dealers.  With fewer dealers making their sales expectations on load in day due to lack of pre-show selling then it really becomes evident when a show is going their way by how busy their booth is each day.  I heard good things from a few dealers at Heroes this year (and bad things from others) I'm hopeful everyone will do great at Baltimore!

[EastEnd1]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:41 AM, 1Cool said:

Auction houses typically only get graded books so the number of impulse buyers is very low just due to the auction format and being a stand alone website.  Con dealers have a ton of books that could be the first time they have seen the light of day in decades especially the big cons where dealers hold back collections to bring in the customers.  A few people may get caught up in a bidding frenzy for a few books but I see a lot of impulse purchases that are not the best value just because the book is in hand and maybe the person doesn't even have a computer (Boomers!).  Big Con dealers are a breed of their own in terms of knowing the market and being able to maximize the prices they can get for books.  

Speaking as a Boomer that hasn't purchased a book at a convention in probably 20+ years (but does use a computer!), it's very possible I'm just too removed from present day conventions.  But if we're talking about UNIVERSAL market trends (not necessarily a specific situation where a dealer or two bring a brand new find to the market), I have a hard time seeing a market rebound at conventions and none at the auction houses.  The big auction houses bring brand new finds to market all the time, and they typically do very well there also.  But the overall market trends are still lackluster these days. 

[Robot Man]

On 9/11/2024 at 8:41 AM, 1Cool said:

Auction houses typically only get graded books so the number of impulse buyers is very low just due to the auction format and being a stand alone website.  Con dealers have a ton of raw books that could be the first time they have seen the light of day in decades especially the big cons where dealers hold back collections to bring in the customers.  A few people may get caught up in a bidding frenzy for a few books on ComicLink but I see a lot of impulse purchases at Cons that are not the best value just because the book is in hand and maybe the person doesn't even have a computer (Boomers!).  Big Con dealers are a breed of their own in terms of knowing the market and being able to maximize the prices they can get for books (if people are buying - if not the 50% signs start popping up).  

Hey I’m a Boomer and am fully computer literate. More than many because I use programs like Adobe Creative Suite and Photoshop every day for work.

I have used the computer to collect since the early days of the internet. But, I have always found the con and show aspect much more fun and fulfilling. Lots of books show up that one might not ever see on the net. All about the “thrill of the hunt”.

Have fun at Baltimore. I have always felt it was the best show in the country to buy books in every genre, age and price point. 

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:59 AM, Robot Man said:

Hey I’m a Boomer and am fully computer literate. More than many because I use programs like Adobe Creative Suite and Photoshop every day for work.

I have used the computer to collect since the early days of the internet. But, I have always found the con and show aspect much more fun and fulfilling. Lots of books show up that one might not ever see on the net. All about the “thrill of the hunt”.

Have fun at Baltimore. I have always felt it was the best show in the country to buy books in every genre, age and price point. 

I forget how easily triggered you Boomers are   

[1Cool]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:58 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Speaking as a Boomer that hasn't purchased a book at a convention in probably 20+ years (but does use a computer!), it's very possible I'm just too removed from present day conventions.  But if we're talking about UNIVERSAL market trends (not necessarily a specific situation where a dealer or two bring a brand new find to the market), I have a hard time seeing a market rebound at conventions and none at the auction houses.  The big auction houses bring brand new finds to market all the time, and they typically do very well there also.  But the overall market trends are still lackluster these days. 

I 100% agree you will not see a rebound of prices at the big cons.  Prices for the market are mostly set by E-Bay sales data and then the dealers react to those prices.  Some big dealers have the ability to do well with their own pricing but a big majority are competing with e-bay sellers and the prices realized on there sets the bar for them.

[Chip Cataldo]

As an aside, I thought that the fist appearance of Sub-Mariner WASN'T Marvel Comics #1.

Isn't it Motion Picture Funnies Weekly #1?

[bc]

On 9/11/2024 at 4:44 PM, Chip Cataldo said:

As an aside, I thought that the fist appearance of Sub-Mariner WASN'T Marvel Comics #1.

Isn't it Motion Picture Funnies Weekly #1?

Yes.

https://the-comic-book-forum.boards.net/thread/1562/motion-picture-funnies-weekly-mariner

-bc

Edited September 12 by bc
add link

[VintageComics]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:33 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Can't say I'm understanding why market trends at conventions should be any different than market trends at auction houses.  And even if they were, I'd imagine it would self-correct fairly quickly.  The dollar is always going to chase the best product for the lowest price.    

I'm not sure if you're referring to my post as I spoke to this.

Several points:

What I said was that it's easy at auction to detect what the market is doing when the market is climbing or dropping across the board, but much harder to see when it's beginning to change direction, due to the volatility of auction prices, especially in a bear market whose primary hallmark is volatility.

It's easy to see a wave moving in one direction, across the board, but not so easy to read the tea leaves into random ripples. 

Auctions have price volatility because time is the single largest factor at auction. How many bidders can you cram into a specific time frame? Can you get the correct bidders into that specific time frame?

Even so, DC#'s charts seem to point out a stabilizing of prices and some signs of a rebound. 

The volatility at shows is not in relation to prices. The prices are more or less fixed at shows, so the volatility at shows is in how many books sold or profits generated overall. That's a very different thing. 

In a 'bad' auction, you may have show dealers pick up inventory (there weren't enough bidders or wasn't enough time to bid on everything someone wants), and sell those same books at shows for fair market prices, where buyers have more time to pick and choose what they want and pay for that luxury. 

Between the two (auctions and shows) you can get a much better understanding of what the market is doing than just one of the 2.

Hopefully that fills in what I was trying to get across. 

[EastEnd1]

On 9/11/2024 at 7:05 PM, VintageComics said:

Between the two (auctions and shows) you can get a much better understanding of what the market is doing than just one of the 2.

I'd agree with this.  The point I was trying to make is that to the extent the two diverge, they by necessity would quickly pair up again.  Whether one gives a month or two earlier view into a rebound isn't relevant to me... all I care about is that the rebound happens.

Not sure that I agree with your volatility point on auctions.  Certainly individual comics may be volatile for the points you raise, but a large auction, or better yet a closely held series of large auctions, would smooth that volatility and give a pretty good indication of market sentiment at a point in time.  I've found DC#'s charts useful in capturing that.  You can also see it by just randomly scrolling through GPA (which captures both auction and fixed sales data) a bit.  For me, the "ripples" of a rebound are best identified by empirical evidence rather than by anecdotal conversations among a few convention dealers... but that could just be me.  The last conventions I went to were the early New York ComicCons and I spent most of my time at Walking Dead panels and enjoying my daughter's company than in the comic book aisles.    

So from my observations (and personal selling experience), super high grade silver is starting to rebound, silver overall may be leveling, and bronze and copper continue to slide.  This is all generally speaking of course... there are always exceptions.

   

[VintageComics]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:37 AM, EastEnd1 said:

The point I was trying to make is that to the extent the two diverge, they by necessity would quickly pair up again.

Indicators, when correctly analyzed, will always converge and diverge along the mean.

I was speaking about how during a time of uncertainty in auction prices, you may be able to find support one way or the other with Convention data, and that's what I did with my analysis. Where people were unable to see a rebound from the auction data, I saw one coming and confirmed it with anecdotal show data (and MyComicShop agreed with their own collection buying practices as well).

On 9/12/2024 at 9:37 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Whether one gives a month or two earlier view into a rebound isn't relevant to me... all I care about is that the rebound happens.

Sure, and I appreciate that, but others did care and asked me to give more insight into why I was calling one.

On 9/12/2024 at 9:37 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Not sure that I agree with your volatility point on auctions.  Certainly individual comics may be volatile for the points you raise, but a large auction, or better yet a closely held series of large auctions, would smooth that volatility and give a pretty good indication of market sentiment at a point in time.  I've found DC#'s charts useful in capturing that.  You can also see it by just randomly scrolling through GPA (which captures both auction and fixed sales data) a bit.  For me, the "ripples" of a rebound are best identified by empirical evidence rather than by anecdotal conversations among a few convention dealers... but that could just be me. 

Sure, more auctions offer more data and a clearer picture, but we're really dealing with relatively low volume data. 3 major auction houses and a few 1000 bidders with a few auctions a month over whatever books happen to come to auction. 

As I said, auction data is only easy to read in a stable, rising or falling market. 

In a bear market, everyone's looking for the start of the next bull market, and my point is that auctions alone, because the data is volatile and fairly sparse, are not a full picture of the market in times of volatility like this bear market we're in, so I brought in some additional data / opinions to support my point of the beginnings of a rebound.

It's very different than a ticker with high profile stocks where you may have 100s, 1000s or even millions of trades a day. 

Anyway, everyone has a vested interest and that makes for great conversation. I keep in mind that this is all just friendly conversation on a chat forum and we have the luxury of discussing it. I could be wrong, I'm happy to be wrong, unlike some, and always open to having my mind changed. 

Appreciate the detailed convo. 

[The Less Blob]

On 9/9/2024 at 1:26 PM, Poutine said:

I still have a ways to save up for 20% down. I'm hoping something happens by the time I am ready 

well, yes, my down payment would need to be 2X as much now. with that said, i'm actually making more around 2X what I was making in 2006, go figure

Edited September 12 by The Less Blob