Market Equilibrium Reached 1 1

[PokemanDude90]

Before the Poke-mania of 2020, most PSA 9's weren't going to make anyone money, let alone 8's, 7's etc.

Up until this point, mostly anything slabbed was guaranteed profit. 

NOT ANY MORE. 

CGC 8.5's are the new PSA 9's in that they are nearly worthless as a grade, and taking the time to encapsulate a 8.5 is a fruitless endeavor (outside of medium to higher end cards). Even for medium tier cards, the difference between a 8.5 and 9 in terms of resale price can be drastic, with 8.5's underperforming very, very badly. And guess which grade we all get the most? 8.5 I'd wager.

Look at ZandG's weekly auction if you don't believe me. Most 8.5's AREN'T EVEN COVERING THE COST OF GRADING. They aren't even close! It's disgusting. 

It will be interesting how things go from here, I suspect either: CGC gets smart and gives out more 9's to balance the market, or they lose a lot of incoming cards due to extremely poor resale value and the fear of the dreaded 8.5 grade.

Either that, or CGC grading fees decrease, which I don't see happening. 

 

[the menace]

Why should CGC do anything to "balance the market"? 

Why should CGC care you can't make back the cost of grading? Their service is grading and encapsulation, and should remain as such. 

If people get scared and stop submitting NM WOTC cards, I think that's a good sign. The market is overly saturated with that stuff regardless when you combine all graded + ungraded out there.

[revat]

On 9/26/2021 at 3:54 PM, medison said:

Why should CGC do anything to "balance the market"? 

Why should CGC care you can't make back the cost of grading? Their service is grading and encapsulation, and should remain as such. 

If people get scared and stop submitting NM WOTC cards, I think that's a good sign. The market is overly saturated with that stuff regardless when you combine all graded + ungraded out there.

Agree.  If you extrapolate from the comic situation, most modern 9.6’s aren’t worth the cost of submissions but there’s TTTOOOOONNNS of them available, and no shortage of submissions.

Inexperienced chumps chasing high grade profits from 10’s for cards and 9.8’s for comics actually works in favor of Cgc when they’re scarce and top prices are

driven higher.  Everyone thinks their cards are mint and there’s easy money to be made.

[PokemanDude90]

On 9/26/2021 at 3:54 PM, medison said:

Why should CGC do anything to "balance the market"? 

Why should CGC care you can't make back the cost of grading? Their service is grading and encapsulation, and should remain as such. 

If people get scared and stop submitting NM WOTC cards, I think that's a good sign. The market is overly saturated with that stuff regardless when you combine all graded + ungraded out there.

Do you understand supply and demand? People will stop submitting cards if a majority of what they send in nets a loss. 

It's the same principle that allows grading companies to raise prices when the market is good.

If you don't understand this concept then don't bother talking about this subject.

[the menace]

On 9/26/2021 at 7:58 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

Do you understand supply and demand? People will stop submitting cards if a majority of what they send in nets a loss. 

It's the same principle that allows grading companies to raise prices when the market is good.

If you don't understand this concept then don't bother talking about this subject.

What does supply and demand have to do with people selling CGC 8s for a loss?

If anything, you should want less people to submit so your 8.5s go up in value 
 

I only see positives if people stop submitting junk. 

[thehumantorch]

On 9/26/2021 at 5:58 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

Do you understand supply and demand? People will stop submitting cards if a majority of what they send in nets a loss. 

It's the same principle that allows grading companies to raise prices when the market is good.

If you don't understand this concept then don't bother talking about this subject.

 

This is gonna be a fun thread.

[thehumantorch]

On 9/26/2021 at 5:58 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

Do you understand supply and demand? People will stop submitting cards if a majority of what they send in nets a loss. 

It's the same principle that allows grading companies to raise prices when the market is good.

If you don't understand this concept then don't bother talking about this subject.

 

This is gonna be a fun thread.

[The Nameless One]

CGC slabs are a young market. Like, isn't it kind of a fool's errand to think of selling before the population report comes out? Not saying a pop report would magically fix the value problem with CGC 8.5s, but we're kinda gauging the value of our slabs with a blind eye. I don't feel comfortable selling any of my slabs, a CGC 9 Marnie recently sold for $500 cdn... gross. Like, those cards are all 0.5 off from fetching an extra $400+, it's dumb enough to make me want to whip out the "revenge grading" argument. Given that the market values a CGC 9.5 as a potential PSA 10, a 9 is more realistically where it drops off. I feel like my 9 Marnie's could potentially snag a PSA 10 but you get trapped in it not being worth the $150 per card gamble. 

 

For the record, my 48 card submission contained 0 8.5s. Fair amount of 9.5s relative to 9s, but none of my $$$ cards came back 9.5. In general, given that these are modern cards, I'll want to wait until the sets are out of print at the very least. The market is cold at the moment, we might see a spike during the celebrations release but I'm not expecting to sell anything for a while. Too many factors holding the market back

[Oreos]

I have a feeling this thread is going to pop off; and I want no part in it. 

But what I will say to everyone responding to comments;
Remember not everyone grades for only profit. Everyone's situation is different. Some grade for profit, some collection, some profit & collection, some for fun, etc. So just remember your situation is not the same as anyone else's. Keep it civil peeps 

 

[kreativemente]

I can see grading fees dropping since the backlog has been caught up to, but I don't think its going to change CGC's grading practices as far as how many 9s vs 8.5s are given out.

On 9/27/2021 at 8:04 AM, Oreos said:

I have a feeling this thread is going to pop off; and I want no part in it. 

But what I will say to everyone responding to comments;
Remember not everyone grades for only profit. Everyone's situation is different. Some grade for profit, some collection, some profit & collection, some for fun, etc. So just remember your situation is not the same as anyone else's. Keep it civil peeps 

 

Agreeing with this ^^. I feel the majority of people who grade cards actually want to keep the card and want it protected with the potential to sell it later on down the line for another card or when they're tired of it. 

As far as selling prices, I think we have to wait longer to have real data as well as this ever elusive pop report just for comps. But it's also a dead time, comparing todays prices to this time last year is a bit skewed since everything was inflated.

[revat]

On 9/27/2021 at 8:45 AM, kreativemente said:

I can see grading fees dropping since the backlog has been caught up to, but I don't think its going to change CGC's grading practices as far as how many 9s vs 8.5s are given out.

On 9/27/2021 at 5:04 AM, Oreos said:

I have a feeling this thread is going to pop off; and I want no part in it. 

But what I will say to everyone responding to comments;
Remember not everyone grades for only profit. Everyone's situation is different. Some grade for profit, some collection, some profit & collection, some for fun, etc. So just remember your situation is not the same as anyone else's. Keep it civil peeps 

 

Agreeing with this ^^. I feel the majority of people who grade cards actually want to keep the card and want it protected with the potential to sell it later on down the line for another card or when they're tired of it. 

As far as selling prices, I think we have to wait longer to have real data as well as this ever elusive pop report just for comps. But it's also a dead time, comparing todays prices to this time last year is a bit skewed since everything was inflated.

I agree with you, we're for sure still waiting for more data.  And cgc card grading is fairly new, and as they expand their grading services to other games and other cards, that will CERTAINLY impact the value of existing cards they have graded, and that impact remains to be seen.  AND ALSO, we happen to still be in the (tail end of the) middle of a (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic, and there's not a ton of precedent in predicting the long term impact on the value of slabbed trading card game collectibles, although I guess if someone was REALLY into it and had the right software and right data they could build some decent predictive models.

[Tom Snow]

On 9/26/2021 at 7:58 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

Do you understand supply and demand? People will stop submitting cards if a majority of what they send in nets a loss. 

It's the same principle that allows grading companies to raise prices when the market is good.

If you don't understand this concept then don't bother talking about this subject.

And you understand that if CGC just starts handing out 9s to cards that should be 8.5s they’ll lose credibility and then 9s won’t be worth the cost of grading and it will probably cause all CGC graded cards to drop in value. Their job is not to artificially assign grades to cards/comics.  People won’t stand nor pay for that  

 

[Michael Ledon]

On 9/26/2021 at 3:26 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

I suspect either: CGC gets smart and gives out more 9's to balance the market

 

That sounds a lot like Market Manipulation and would hurt their reputation and business.

[thehumantorch]

On 9/27/2021 at 2:30 PM, Tom Snow said:

And you understand that if CGC just starts handing out 9s to cards that should be 8.5s they’ll lose credibility and then 9s won’t be worth the cost of grading and it will probably cause all CGC graded cards to drop in value. Their job is not to artificially assign grades to cards/comics.  People won’t stand nor pay for that  

 

Agreed.  CGC's job is to develop a grading standard and grade to that standard.  Submitters will have to adjust to market values and submit cards worth submitting.

[Drew99]

Part of the problem here is that you are assuming that CGC considered equal to PSA and Becket.  It isn’t.  
 

many people have gone over to CGC because of issues like the crazy waitlist at The competitors and the relative cheap price… it has been the only game in town for mid level cards and to be graded.  
 

however, read a few forums and take a look at a PSA 9 and a CGC 8.5/9 and make up your own mind… add into the mix that they came to market with a product that you could open by hand and was not secure for more than before it was addressed.

 

would you by a thousands of dollar high end lotus or modem under a CGC label.  Be serious.  They are in the 100 dollar card market give or take. 

[kreativemente]

On 9/28/2021 at 6:44 PM, Drew99 said:

Part of the problem here is that you are assuming that CGC considered equal to PSA and Becket.  It isn’t.  
 

many people have gone over to CGC because of issues like the crazy waitlist at The competitors and the relative cheap price… it has been the only game in town for mid level cards and to be graded.  
 

however, read a few forums and take a look at a PSA 9 and a CGC 8.5/9 and make up your own mind… add into the mix that they came to market with a product that you could open by hand and was not secure for more than before it was addressed.

 

would you by a thousands of dollar high end lotus or modem under a CGC label.  Be serious.  They are in the 100 dollar card market give or take. 

Are we talking about CGC today or CGC in month 3?? CGC (Cards) is a different company than it was when it first started. Are we going to keep using the fact that early one they had mess cases when they've evolved the cases over and over again and have gotten better??

Its going to take a while before the market values CGC like PSA/BGS. I think they're going in the right direction as far as grading quality. CGC has a ton of other issues that they have to work on though, but its not the cases

[Drew99]

On 9/29/2021 at 10:40 AM, kreativemente said:

Are we talking about CGC today or CGC in month 3?? CGC (Cards) is a different company than it was when it first started. Are we going to keep using the fact that early one they had mess cases when they've evolved the cases over and over again and have gotten better??

Its going to take a while before the market values CGC like PSA/BGS. I think they're going in the right direction as far as grading quality. CGC has a ton of other issues that they have to work on though, but its not the cases

[GuiceBoxxx]

On 9/26/2021 at 6:26 PM, PokemanDude90 said:

Before the Poke-mania of 2020, most PSA 9's weren't going to make anyone money, let alone 8's, 7's etc.

Up until this point, mostly anything slabbed was guaranteed profit. 

NOT ANY MORE. 

CGC 8.5's are the new PSA 9's in that they are nearly worthless as a grade, and taking the time to encapsulate a 8.5 is a fruitless endeavor (outside of medium to higher end cards). Even for medium tier cards, the difference between a 8.5 and 9 in terms of resale price can be drastic, with 8.5's underperforming very, very badly. And guess which grade we all get the most? 8.5 I'd wager.

Look at ZandG's weekly auction if you don't believe me. Most 8.5's AREN'T EVEN COVERING THE COST OF GRADING. They aren't even close! It's disgusting. 

It will be interesting how things go from here, I suspect either: CGC gets smart and gives out more 9's to balance the market, or they lose a lot of incoming cards due to extremely poor resale value and the fear of the dreaded 8.5 grade.

Either that, or CGC grading fees decrease, which I don't see happening. 

 

Not sure if this is satire or not but, did you just suggest that a company that prides itself on accurate and impartial validation and conditional grading services should somehow alter their standards to give cards a higher grade than they deserve to increase YOUR resale value? The only reason a CGC 8.5 is valued higher as a PSA is because it's common knowledge that CGC has a far superior grading standards which is what collectors want. With your suggestion after a very short period of time a CGC 9 would be a PSA 8 because the standards have been relaxed. If you are here solely to make money that's fine but don't throw all your cards at the wall and get upset when their condition is accurately assessed and encapsulated as such. CGC will be fine with maintaining their standards, and they have already eclipsed all other grading services with the exception of Beckett. Most collectors will tell you they are basically equal as far as service and standards to Beckett the undisputed premium grading service.

[Drew99]

On 10/1/2021 at 1:00 PM, GuiceBoxxx said:

Not sure if this is satire or not but, did you just suggest that a company that prides itself on accurate and impartial validation and conditional grading services should somehow alter their standards to give cards a higher grade than they deserve to increase YOUR resale value? The only reason a CGC 8.5 is valued higher as a PSA is because it's common knowledge that CGC has a far superior grading standards which is what collectors want. With your suggestion after a very short period of time a CGC 9 would be a PSA 8 because the standards have been relaxed. If you are here solely to make money that's fine but don't throw all your cards at the wall and get upset when their condition is accurately assessed and encapsulated as such. CGC will be fine with maintaining their standards, and they have already eclipsed all other grading services with the exception of Beckett. Most collectors will tell you they are basically equal as far as service and standards to Beckett the undisputed premium grading service.

Of the problems I have with CGC… the grading is not one of them.  What I have received from them was very accurate.  I prefer a harsh grade and knowing that a 10 should be extremely rare and a 9 should be valuable. 

The should not change their grading standards.  They have a few definition and process issues… but as far as what is a 8, 9 or 10.  They are

leaning into the “our number matters” and they don’t just give them out.  

[The Nameless One]

It's a tricky situation but one I want to explore further. Personally, I'm not unhappy with my grades, I'm proud of the fact that I managed to send in 9 and 9.5 quality cards, from what I have gathered I did relatively well. I think we need to shift blame to the market itself which is, in this current incarnation, young when it comes to collecting. That transition from niche to mainstream creates a patch of market turbulence because, well, we have tons of fresh collectors getting into the game... and fresh grading services. This period of expansion has created a very volatile market, I'm tucking away my liquid assets for 5 years before thinking of selling. We don't even have a pop report! People are just winging it at this point, and Ebay is a monster - I hope this expansion leads to stronger tools to sell on the secondary market. Our selling/market standards are outdated, and this leads to blaming the grading and whatnot, especially with modern Marnie flippers who want to make a quick turnaround off their pack fresh graded hits and running into the great gamble that is manufacturing quality control. Like, I honestly think the market is kinda dumb because people value a card which was magically cut to perfection as opposed to a collectable with a story to it. It's so soulless this 10 fetishism, like, oh no my Marnie got 1mm of edging on the centering whatever, why does that impact the value so severely? I understand feeling salty about landing your card in high value tiers, but it's a grading company's job to be transparent about that 1mm edging on the centering. You just need to get lucky I guess, and that's the unspoken reality of selling graded cards - it's the rarity of the card along with the rarity of perfect manufacturing. Some cards are so flawed in their manufacturing run that a perfect card is a holy grail. Personally, I hope the market begins to lean towards sheer rarity of card as opposed to the rarity of manufacturing perfection. Like, what's special about a minty copy of Super Mario Bros found underneath some Toys R Us shelf relative to one which was enjoyed properly? Yes, given that so many people enjoyed the game as opposed to hoarding copies in their basement like goblins, one leans more scarce than the other. I just find it funny that I can go to my local used game store, grab a cart of Super Mario Bros and a NES for 150 bucks, play it and whatever, and people are spending millions on vault pieces. Form and functionality...