How rare are modern newsstand editions? 6 6

[paqart]

I wrote this in an old topic but think it is worth its own thread, so I'm reposting it here:

Just for fun, I just spent the last two hours looking up 21 key issue newsstands published between 1999-2013. This was inspired by a poster here who refuses to believe that any newsstand is the equivalent of a 1:100 variant, or 1% of the available copies/print run. The same person has repeatedly predicted that once newsstands became better known and recognized for their rarity, they would become more common, not more rare. The suggested reason is that when prices and interest reached a certain point, the newsstand copies would come out in large numbers. From the little bit of digging I did tonight, the idea that late year newsstands are 1:100 variants is not well-supported. Some are, but not all. A 1:25 ratio is more like what I saw. That said, I wasn't able to find any newsstand copies of five issues, making it impossible to calculate a ratio for them. Here are the results:
 

Title	Volume	issue	publication year	Direct on eBay	NS on eBay	Ratio
Daredevil	1998	9	1999	86	8	10.75
Hulk	1999	12	2000	34	0	#DIV/0!
ASM	1999	30	2001	52	8	6.5
Catwoman	2002	1	2002	49	0	#DIV/0!
Batman	1943	608	2002	76	2	38
X-Men	1995	128	2002	62	5	12.4
Batman	1943	613	2003	65	2	32.5
X-Men	1963	451	2004	45	0	#DIV/0!
Ultimate Fantastic Four	2002	22	2005	43	0	#DIV/0!
Hulk	1999	92	2006	36	3	12
New Avengers	2005	27	2007	209	4	52.25
Daredevil	1998	111	2008	58	1	58
Hulk	2008	1	2008	100	4	25
Wolverine	2006	66	2008	47	2	23.5
ASM	1999	601	2009	47	1	47
Supergirl	2005	50	2010	15	0	#DIV/0!
Detective Comics	1938	880	2011	88	2	44
Daredevil	2012	1	2012	5	1	5
Deadpool	2013	1	2013	27	1	27
Morbius	2013	1	2013	80	2	40
God of Thunder	2013	6	2013	102	1	102

Every issue on this list is a key of some kind, though some are less important than others. What I wanted was a list that covered every year from 1999-2013 to see if it would show a gradual decline in availability. However, the low availability of newsstands makes it difficult to say these numbers can generalize to the whole population of extant newsstands. What they do show is absolute availability as of last night between about midnight and 2AM on eBay.

As keys, these comics are interesting to collectors regardless of newsstand status. They are all fairly high value items, such as the first appearance of echo in DD9 or the first appearance of Knull in God of Thunder 6. For this reason, it is unlikely that newsstand editions of these issues would be withheld from sale by collectors, speculators, and dealers waiting for their comics to increase in value. It follows that a good supply of these issues would be available to collectors at any given time. A quick look at this list is enough to show that the most available comics are also the most in demand.

Title	Volume	issue	publication year	Direct on eBay	NS on eBay	Ratio
New Avengers	2005	27	2007	209	4	1:52.25
God of Thunder	2013	6	2013	102	1	1:102
Hulk	2008	1	2008	100	4	1:25
Detective Comics	1938	880	2011	88	2	1:44
Daredevil	1998	9	1999	86	8	1:10.75
Morbius	2013	1	2013	80	2	1:40
Batman	1943	608	2002	76	2	1:38
Batman	1943	613	2003	65	2	1:32.5
X-Men	1995	128	2002	62	5	1:12.4
Daredevil	1998	111	2008	58	1	1:58
ASM	1999	30	2001	52	8	1:6.5
Catwoman	2002	1	2002	49	0	0!
Wolverine	2006	66	2008	47	2	1:23.5
ASM	1999	601	2009	47	1	1:47
X-Men	1963	451	2004	45	0	0!
Ultimate Fantastic Four	2002	22	2005	43	0	0!
Hulk	1999	92	2006	36	3	1:12
Hulk	1999	12	2000	34	0	0!
Deadpool	2013	1	2013	27	1	1:27
Supergirl	2005	50	2010	15	0	0!
Daredevil	2012	1	2012	5	1	1:5

This sample supports the premise that more demand equals more availability of direct editions. It does not support the premise that more demand equals more newsstand availability. If anything, the newsstand availability appears to be constant, taking into account increased rarity in more recent publication years. Based on my buying experience, the comics on this list are much easier to find in newsstand edition than other less popular non-key newsstands that I am looking for. From my perspective, the availability ratios seen here represent a flood of valuable newsstands being pulled out of attics and made available for purchase to take advantage of their current value.

For comparison, I also checked a few runs of series I collect, to demonstrate how much less available non-key modern newsstands can be.

Title	Volume	issue	publication year	Direct on eBay	NS on eBay	Ratio
Thor	1998	2	1998	20	2	10
		3	1998	45	0	#DIV/0!
		4	1998	48	0	#DIV/0!
		5	1998	44	0	#DIV/0!
		6	1998	39	0	#DIV/0!
X-Men	2	130	2002	28	0	#DIV/0!
		140	2003	27	0	#DIV/0!
		150	2004	45	3	15
		160	2004	66	2	33
Catwoman	2002	40	2005	16	0	#DIV/0!
		50	2006	9	0	#DIV/0!
		60	2006	25	0	#DIV/0!
		70	2007	13	0	#DIV/0!
		80	2008	14	0	#DIV/0!
Supergirl	2005	60	2011	12	0	#DIV/0!
		61	2011	4	0	#DIV/0!
		62	2011	7	0	#DIV/0!
		63	2011	5	0	#DIV/0!
		64	2011	13	0	#DIV/0!
Amazing Spider-Man	1999	680	2012	20	0	#DIV/0!
		681	2012	21	0	#DIV/0!
		682	2012	23	0	#DIV/0!
		683	2012	24	0	#DIV/0!
		684	2012	27	0	#DIV/0!
Daredevil	2012	24	2013	11	0	#DIV/0!
		26	2013	7	0	#DIV/0!
		28	2013	18	1	18
		30	2013	10	0	#DIV/0!
		32	2013	13	0	#DIV/0!
Total				654	8	81.75

As you can see, non-key newsstand editions are significantly more difficult to find than keys. Taken together, the overall newsstand edition availability ratio is 1:28 for keys and 1:82 for non-keys. Keep in mind that this understates actual rarity due to zero availability of many issues. Until they become available, their relative scarcity cannot be calculated. 

There is a slight correspondence between availability and estimated distribution (courtesy of ComiChron) of key issues. However, the number of newsstand keys available is so low that it is difficult to generalize the correlation between estimated distribution and available on eBay, or general scarcity.

Title	Volume	issue	publication year	Direct on eBay	NS on eBay	Ratio	Est distribution
Hulk	2008	1	2008	100	4	25	136025
Batman	1943	613	2003	65	2	32.5	133628
New Avengers	2005	27	2007	209	4	52.25	132085
Deadpool	2013	1	2013	27	1	27	123306
Batman	1943	608	2002	76	2	38	120945
X-Men	1995	128	2002	62	5	12.4	106190
X-Men	1963	451	2004	45	0	#DIV/0!	99318
Wolverine	2006	66	2008	47	2	23.5	97989
Daredevil	1998	9	1999	86	8	10.75	81155
ASM	1999	30	2001	52	8	6.5	77314
ASM	1999	601	2009	47	1	47	74201
Ultimate Fantastic Four	2002	22	2005	43	0	#DIV/0!	71762
Thor	2013	6	2013	102	1	102	50481
Catwoman	2002	1	2002	49	0	#DIV/0!	49413
Daredevil	1998	111	2008	58	1	58	46291
Morbius	2013	1	2013	80	2	40	43833
Hulk	1999	12	2000	34	0	#DIV/0!	42287
Hulk	1999	92	2006	36	3	12	39209
Detective Comics	1938	880	2011	88	2	44	38585
Daredevil	2012	1	2012	5	1	5	34310
Supergirl	2005	50	2010	15	0	#DIV/0!	33338

Based on availability in a given year, there is a closer correlation between year published and availability than estimated direct distribution and availability. For example, 2 of the 3 issues with highest direct distribution (and therefore, newsstand as well), are New Avengers 27 (2005) and Hulk 1 (2008). Estimated direct distribution for each is 132,085 and 136,025, respectively. Four copies of each of these issues are currently available in newsstand. In contrast, the two most available newsstand issues are Daredevil 9 (1999) and Amazing Spider-Man 30 (2001), with 8 copies of each available right now on eBay. The estimated distribution for each of these comics is 81,155 and 77,314, respectively. This means that with about 60% of the distribution, we have double the number of available newsstands. However, there are also about double the number of directs available of the later, higher print run issues. What this indicates is that an absolute 60% reduction in print run creates approximately equal newsstand availability between the years 2001-2008. In other words, the later newsstand issues are half as common as percentage of print run but equally available due to a significantly larger print run.

An interesting data point concerns Hulk 92 (1999). It has a low number of estimated direct distribution copies (39,209) but there are 3 newsstand copies available right now on eBay. This is a key book (first Planet Hulk/Ragnarok tie-in), though interest is cooling. This may be an example of market demand squeezing out newsstand copies, making them more available than in other titles with similar distribution, like 2008's Daredevil 111 (46,291/1 NS copy available). As a ratio of available directs, it is one of the more available newsstands but that doesn't take into account the overall low availability of this comic, with only 36 available copies in total. The situation is much worse for Daredevil 1 (2012), which has what looks like high newsstand availability ratio of 1:5, but only 5 copies are available in total, 1 of which is a newsstand edition.

My impression is that collector interest and demand are strong drivers of newsstand availability. However, supply is limited by actual copies printed, distributed, saved, and made available for sale. If these numbers are anything to go by, the supply of hot key books is in extremely short supply and will be exhausted before long. Less "hot" issues will continue to be available as newsstands for a limited period of time, after which they will become nearly impossible to find unless collector interest intensifies. If that happens, if this is any indication, the number of newsstand copies disgorged will not be enough to satisfy the demand.

Every comic mentioned in this post is on my want list. To date, I am missing only 4 of the 21 issues on the list of keys (I bought 2 of them, Morbius 1 and New Avengers 27, while doing this research). I am missing 21 out of 29 of the listed non-keys. This is after a few years of looking. What that means to me is that it is more likely that availability will contract over time, rather than expand, making modern newsstands a very competitive market for collectors. My policy at this point is to buy every key I see as long as the price is reasonable. I've already passed up a couple because I thought they had unreasonably high prices, then paid more later after not finding any other copies.

[mr_highgrade]

 

[paqart]

On 12/20/2021 at 12:05 AM, mr_highgrade said:

 

One of mine has been at CGC for almost a year. The other is probably only an 8.5, so I didn't send it in. Congrats on having so many of this and one a 9.8!

[ygogolak]

"The same person has repeatedly predicted that once newsstands became better known and recognized for their rarity, they would become more common, not more rare."

A book wouldn't become "less rare". That would mean they printed more. The only way it would become "more rare" is if copies were destroyed.

[mr_highgrade]

On 12/20/2021 at 2:37 AM, paqart said:

One of mine has been at CGC for almost a year. The other is probably only an 8.5, so I didn't send it in. Congrats on having so many of this and one a 9.8!

Good luck with the grade. 

[paqart]

On 12/20/2021 at 8:46 AM, ygogolak said:

"The same person has repeatedly predicted that once newsstands became better known and recognized for their rarity, they would become more common, not more rare."

A book wouldn't become "less rare". That would mean they printed more. The only way it would become "more rare" is if copies were destroyed.

A better way to say it is "more available, not less". That said, all objects become "more rare" over time because things get destroyed over time. Regardless, the question is whether there is an abundant supply of newsstands waiting for the right time to emerge on the market, or not. It is obvious that various people do have boxes of newsstands in their collections/stock. However, will these be disgorged to the market or not? If they are, is their absolute quantity sufficient to satisfy demand, or establish parity with direct editions? My impression is that we already know the answer to this question because key issues that command high prices have already incentivized the release of newsstand editions of those comics. The people who released them may have been unaware that they were selling newsstand editions. Either way, when a comic is suddenly worth hundreds of dollars, they get pulled from the back issue bins.

Given the examples I looked at, a fair case can be made that many keys have caused newsstand versions of those same comics to appear in the market, making them more available than less pricey newsstands but still much less available than direct editions. Adding an extra multiplier to the price due to newsstand rarity may nudge a few more onto the market but when you are looking at a comic like UF4, which regularly sells for $4k plus as a direct edition, most of the copies that could be made available for sale are already out there. I just did a check of UF4 on eBay and found 268 copies for sale. None were newsstands. The prices ranged form lows in the $400 range for lower grade copies all the way up to $100,000. Regardless how realistic that high price is, this comic does sell in the multiple thousands often. With that incentive sitting out there, particularly with so many people out of work due to covid-19, I would expect to see newsstand copies out there is they were available. Mr_Highgrade may flash his twenty copies after I post this but that doesn't change the fact that the number of copies on the market today is much less than the number of direct copies. Even if someone here decided to release 20 copies right now as a response to this post, it would still be a drop in the bucket due to the large number of available directs.

Bottom line is that as more collectors want newsstands, we get closer to the day when the supply is exhausted and prices go up. That supply may be much smaller than what some believe, as UF4 illustrates.

[mr_highgrade]

The only reason I have a small amount of newsies in my collection is because I was always actively seeking them out when they were being released via the newsstands. In the mid 2000's I was mostly working in Manhattan and anytime I came accross certain titles at the Hudson Newsstands in Grand Central or Penn Station, I would snap up only the high grade copies that I could find. Most of the time it was hit- and- miss. 

I always felt that these were always going to be very tough to find in high grade. Although, in retrospect I wish I had bought all of them. 

[ygogolak]

On 12/20/2021 at 11:32 AM, paqart said:

A better way to say it is "more available, not less". That said, all objects become "more rare" over time because things get destroyed over time. Regardless, the question is whether there is an abundant supply of newsstands waiting for the right time to emerge on the market, or not. It is obvious that various people do have boxes of newsstands in their collections/stock. However, will these be disgorged to the market or not? If they are, is their absolute quantity sufficient to satisfy demand, or establish parity with direct editions? My impression is that we already know the answer to this question because key issues that command high prices have already incentivized the release of newsstand editions of those comics. The people who released them may have been unaware that they were selling newsstand editions. Either way, when a comic is suddenly worth hundreds of dollars, they get pulled from the back issue bins.

Given the examples I looked at, a fair case can be made that many keys have caused newsstand versions of those same comics to appear in the market, making them more available than less pricey newsstands but still much less available than direct editions. Adding an extra multiplier to the price due to newsstand rarity may nudge a few more onto the market but when you are looking at a comic like UF4, which regularly sells for $4k plus as a direct edition, most of the copies that could be made available for sale are already out there. I just did a check of UF4 on eBay and found 268 copies for sale. None were newsstands. The prices ranged form lows in the $400 range for lower grade copies all the way up to $100,000. Regardless how realistic that high price is, this comic does sell in the multiple thousands often. With that incentive sitting out there, particularly with so many people out of work due to covid-19, I would expect to see newsstand copies out there is they were available. Mr_Highgrade may flash his twenty copies after I post this but that doesn't change the fact that the number of copies on the market today is much less than the number of direct copies. Even if someone here decided to release 20 copies right now as a response to this post, it would still be a drop in the bucket due to the large number of available directs.

Bottom line is that as more collectors want newsstands, we get closer to the day when the supply is exhausted and prices go up. That supply may be much smaller than what some believe, as UF4 illustrates.

I assume there is something of note in here.

[Lazyboy]

On 12/20/2021 at 7:46 AM, ygogolak said:

"The same person has repeatedly predicted that once newsstands became better known and recognized for their rarity, they would become more common, not more rare."

A book wouldn't become "less rare". That would mean they printed more. The only way it would become "more rare" is if copies were destroyed.

He's confusing (highly visible) availability with actual supply.

[fastballspecial]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:05 PM, mr_highgrade said:

 

I got a 9.4 in the mail a few weeks back. Opened it up and found food on an inside page. I kid you not I was crushed.

 

[valiantman]

Simple stated, going all the way back to the beginning of the direct edition market...

The survival of newsstands was almost entirely decided by the behavior of direct edition collectors in the weeks after the newsstand book arrived.

If a book was immediately popular as a direct edition, the newsstand issues would have been purchased by many direct edition collectors and protected just as well as direct editions of the same issue (Thor #337, ASM #252, ASM #361).

If a book was overstocked as a direct edition, the newsstand would have been purchased by very few direct edition collectors and may be much harder to find than "normal" newsstands from the same date (many 1980s #1 issues are relatively tougher as newsstand because comic shops bought tons of direct editions for inventory - Wolverine #1 (1982), for example).

Otherwise, newsstands would have had a "generally consistent" survival rate - neither popular or unpopular - relative to the direct editions of the same issue - and should reflect the overall decline in newsstand sales through the modern age.

The survival of newsstands in large quantities (warehouse) which should have been destroyed due to poor sales could occur at any time, not specifically in the direct edition era (FF #48, Hulk #181, etc.).

Edited January 3, 2022 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

Simple stated, going all the way back to the beginning of the direct edition market...

The survival of newsstands was almost entirely decided by the behavior of direct edition collectors in the weeks after the newsstand book arrived.

 That's not even close to being true.

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

If a book was immediately popular as a direct edition, the newsstand issues would have been purchased by many direct edition collectors and protected just as well as direct editions of the same issue (Thor #337, ASM #252, ASM #361).

Yes, those are the extreme outliers, which is not at all "the survival of newsstands (being) almost entirely decided by the behavior of direct edition collectors".

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

If a book was overstocked as a direct edition, the newsstand would have been purchased by very few direct edition collectors

Yes, almost certainly.

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

and may be much harder to find than "normal" newsstands from the same date (many 1980s #1 issues are relatively tougher as newsstand because comic shops bought tons of direct editions for inventory - Wolverine #1 (1982), for example).

A really big reason why books like that are more available as Directs now is that some people still have significant overstock from when they ordered it (or acquired it over the years) and are now selling it.

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

Otherwise, newsstands would have had a "generally consistent" survival rate - neither popular or unpopular - relative to the direct editions of the same issue - and should reflect the overall decline in newsstand sales through the modern age.

That's the simple version, but good enough for now.

On 1/3/2022 at 10:13 AM, valiantman said:

The survival of newsstands in large quantities (warehouse) which should have been destroyed due to poor sales could occur at any time, not specifically in the direct edition era (FF #48, Hulk #181, etc.).

Yes, but the question is what is actually out there. We have some answers for issues from 50 years ago, but not so much for issues from 10 years ago. The manipulative doing the hoarding and pumping sure aren't going to provide us with their inventory lists.

[divad]

On 1/3/2022 at 8:13 AM, valiantman said:

Simple stated, going all the way back to the beginning of the direct edition market...

The survival of newsstands was almost entirely decided by the behavior of direct edition collectors in the weeks after the newsstand book arrived.

If a book was immediately popular as a direct edition, the newsstand issues would have been purchased by many direct edition collectors and protected just as well as direct editions of the same issue (Thor #337, ASM #252, ASM #361).

If a book was overstocked as a direct edition, the newsstand would have been purchased by very few direct edition collectors and may be much harder to find than "normal" newsstands from the same date (many 1980s #1 issues are relatively tougher as newsstand because comic shops bought tons of direct editions for inventory - Wolverine #1 (1982), for example).

Otherwise, newsstands would have had a "generally consistent" survival rate - neither popular or unpopular - relative to the direct editions of the same issue - and should reflect the overall decline in newsstand sales through the modern age.

The survival of newsstands in large quantities (warehouse) which should have been destroyed due to poor sales could occur at any time, not specifically in the direct edition era (FF #48, Hulk #181, etc.).

Greg,

As much as it pains me to do so I'll have to lean towards Lazyboy on some of these points . . . which seem to be purely based on your personal experience and collecting bias, and your logic is convoluted (no offense )

• The survival of newsstands had absolutely nothing to do with the behavior of direct edition collectors in the weeks after the newsstand book arrived.

[valiantman]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:30 PM, divad said:

Greg,

As much as it pains me to do so I'll have to lean towards Lazyboy on some of these points . . . which seem to be purely based on your personal experience and collecting bias, and your logic is convoluted (no offense )

• The survival of newsstands had absolutely nothing to do with the behavior of direct edition collectors in the weeks after the newsstand book arrived.

Absolutely disagree.

Newsstands - which where purchased only by collectors who regularly purchased their books at the newsstand - survived at a substantially lower rate than newsstands purchased by direct edition collectors who went to the newsstand and stocked up.  It's not even close.

ASM #361 survives at 40% newsstand because of the behavior of direct edition collectors toward the newsstand ASM #361s.

It would be more like 10% newsstand for ASM #361 today if direct edition collectors hadn't gotten involved.

The survival rate of EVERY comic book, from any age, is almost entirely decided by the serious collectors of the era.

Decades before the direct market existed, serious collectors and casual collectors were all mixed together.

Just a couple years before the direct market existed, serious collectors were getting their newsstand books from comic shops. (Newsstand was all there was.)

When the direct market started, serious collectors were automatically switched over to direct editions by the comic shops they visited.

This is the reason the numbers point to low newsstand survival in high grade --- almost immediately --- in the early 1980s, despite the newsstand still being the dominant market.

Survival depends on protection, and direct edition collectors were the ones doing the protecting. Newsstand survival depended on direct edition collectors getting involved.

Edited March 22, 2023 by valiantman

[valiantman]

1982 should have been a newsstand dominated time, but the direct edition collectors got as many Wolverine #1 (1982) as they wanted from their comic shops and ignored the newsstands (weeks later).

The result is that it's not even close to 50/50 or 80/20 in favor of newsstand editions of Wolverine #1 (1982), when compared to the direct editions. 

It's the opposite of what the number printed would have predicted based on newsstand and direct edition numbers.

How did the opposite happen? 

The narrative that newsstand dominated in 1982 and the behavior of direct edition collectors didn't matter for newsstand survival is the opposite of reality.

I didn't want to believe it either, but the numbers, over and over, for decades now, kept telling me that I was wrong.

Even Chuck Rozanski - trying to make newsstands rarer than they are - predicts 80% newsstand for 1982.

https://www.milehighcomics.com/newsletter/031513.html

Where are all those newsstand Wolverine #1 (1982) books?  Who has them today?

The only word that matters to survival is "protection".  Who did the protecting?

When you know who did the protecting, you know who is responsible for survival.

Edited January 4, 2022 by valiantman

[ygogolak]

....and here come the charts

[valiantman]

On 1/4/2022 at 9:53 AM, ygogolak said:

....and here come the charts

People hate facts they disagree with, and the facts just keep on not caring. 

[mr_highgrade]

Although I did start reading comics in the early 70's, I didn't start collecting them until the fall of 1978. The book that took me down the rabbit hole was Marvel Tales #98. That was 7 months before the first Direct Edition comic hit the stands, which would've been late March of 79. I remember buying a Star Wars #24 that had a slash going down the UPC box. I bought it at a book store that sold comic books in their basement. Then 3 weeks later I saw and bought the same book at the newsstand. This copy didn't have the slash in the UPC box. 

From there on, I tried to buy at least one of each copy of my favorite titles. Although I wasn't always successful when it came to newsstands. Either I would forget or the condition of the book wasn't up to my standards. I did this mostly through out the 80's and slowed down in the early 90's. 

I did start again in the mid 2000's, but with very few titles. When it came to DE I never really stopped buying them, with the exception of a year here and there. 

[ygogolak]

On 1/4/2022 at 10:54 AM, valiantman said:

People hate facts they disagree with, and the facts just keep on not caring. 

The chart says "estimated", but they are facts?

[valiantman]

On 1/4/2022 at 10:50 AM, ygogolak said:

On 1/4/2022 at 9:54 AM, valiantman said:

People hate facts they disagree with, and the facts just keep on not caring. 

The chart says "estimated", but they are facts?

Absolutely.  It's a fact that my estimates are the best available numbers so far.  It's a fact that people using their own opinions without using any numbers have a lower chance of being right.  It's a fact that people who want to purposefully contradict the best available numbers have the least chance of being right.

If we didn't have absolute proof, then what would be the value of pi?

An estimate based upon roughly measuring the diameter as "about 1 each time we check" would be that pi is 3.

Someone whose opinion is that pi is 5, because they aren't actually using any numbers but they feel like it's 5, would be less accurate.

Someone who doesn't want to believe it's 3 and purposefully says it's more like 30 just to spite the people who estimated 3, are even more wrong.

The estimate of 3 would be the best available answer, and that's a fact. 

Either bring in stronger numbers to use and the reasons for doing so, or we're stuck with the fact that our estimates based on the numbers available are the best we've got.