Anyone else over the Promise Collection? 6 6

[HemiGTX]

In addition to all that has been discussed so far.  I am now seeing a fair amount of the (already sold) Promise books, being put back up for auction with Heritage. 

Not sure what to make of this. An attempt at flipping these books for a quick profit. Or something else at play.  Nonetheless, it is somewhat unusual to see with Heritage.

It reminds me of ebay. Where you check the sold items. And you see a book that has supposedly already sold 5 times. But miraculously it's still for sale.

[adamstrange]

There is more re-cycling occuring on a regular bais than makes sense to me, but I've been around long enough to observe the fickle nature of many collectors in the hobby so I'm no longer surprised.  It may be more noticeable because the Promise books are featured so prominently right now.

[buttock]

On 1/25/2022 at 12:34 PM, adamstrange said:

There is more re-cycling occuring on a regular bais than makes sense to me, but I've been around long enough to observe the fickle nature of many collectors in the hobby so I'm no longer surprised.  It may be more noticeable because the Promise books are featured so prominently right now.

The 10% monthly growth in the market also means you only have to wait a few months before you turn a profit... 

But there are certain tax reasons to flip like this, even if you take a loss.  

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 1:51 PM, Robot Man said:

Although it didn’t run as long, I find a little more like the San Francisco collection. Similar, (although never really proven story). Long runs of most all the big companies and in, for the most part, super high grade. The difference was it was slowly released with little fanfare, grade manipulating or CGC grading.

I remember it being slowly unloaded on the West Coast. Whispered about. First time. I held some raw copies in my hand, I was blown away. Second only to the Church books by a sliver at the time.

Crippen, although much larger and running longer, just doesn’t have the quality overall. Cool back story though and I am happy to have quite a few in my collection. 

I love the Crippen collection too, just for the breadth of it have a few myself. I like how they look well read and enjoyed yet he did still take care of them and preserved what he loved. I do find it funny how they are so common that some auctions don't even list the fact that it's a pedigree. I once only learnt when I got the comic in the mail and saw a certificate in the back of the bag/board.

On 1/25/2022 at 2:09 PM, HemiGTX said:

In addition to all that has been discussed so far.  I am now seeing a fair amount of the (already sold) Promise books, being put back up for auction with Heritage. 

Not sure what to make of this. An attempt at flipping these books for a quick profit. Or something else at play.  Nonetheless, it is somewhat unusual to see with Heritage.

It reminds me of ebay. Where you check the sold items. And you see a book that has supposedly already sold 5 times. But miraculously it's still for sale.

I've seen it happen on Heritage. Granted, there is usually some time between versions, but in these rare books that only have 1 in a particular grade, you can see them being sold again throughout the years on heritage (happens with the Church books too). 

While rarer, I do see times on Heritage when the same book goes up again soon after and I always assumed it's because the person bought it and realized they didn't have the means (or couldn't come up with the means in time) and had to sell it again.

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:59 PM, buttock said:

The 10% monthly growth in the market also means you only have to wait a few months before you turn a profit... 

But there are certain tax reasons to flip like this, even if you take a loss.  

On heritage, that means you need you wait 5 months to turn a profit (to make up for the 10% seller fee and 30% buyer premium).

I flipped on Mycomicshop twice, lost a bit once and gained a bit once. I didn't mean to though, I just ended up having second thoughts after letting the bidding frenzy get to me.

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 1:31 PM, buttock said:

There are a lot of books in this collection that don't show up in grade, almost ever.  There was a copy of Manhunt 11 that is an ok cover, and only an 8.5.  But it was the only graded copy, and virtually never seen so it went for $3500.  At a dealer's booth it's probably $5-600.  Is that because someone is trying to get the nicest run of Manhunt?  Only buying the top census books as an investment?  Someone who's wanted the damn thing for 2 decades and never seen one that was adequate so they threw caution to the wind?  Or someone buying solely on spec?  Who knows, but what I can say is that there are a number of reasons out there for such a strange price to manifest at auction.  I've seen this happen enough times in the past where people were astonished at a price and thought, surely that can't be real, only to find out personally from the buyer why it happened.  

So if I sell my Captain Marvel 30, which rarely shows up for auction at that grade (or ever) in 9.0, which I bought for $266 2 years ago, it would sell for over 1 G?

Edited January 26, 2022 by William-James88

[MrBedrock]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:24 PM, William-James88 said:

So if I sell my Master comics 30, which rarely shows up for auction at that grade (or ever) in 9.0, which I bought for $266 2 years ago, it would sell for over 1 G?

It would have a few years ago...before the Promise 9.4 and the two Crowley 9.2s were graded.

Sorry buddy, you missed your window.

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 3:29 PM, MrBedrock said:

It would have a few years ago...before the Promise 9.4 and the two Crowley 9.2s were graded.

Sorry buddy, you missed your window.

I never had a window, I bought this book only 2 years ago, when prices were low, so no loss, no gain. And it's not what I meant or asked. My point is copies from the Promise collection are not the highest graded, just like my Master Comics copy, and yet still made bank, like this one: https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/master-comics-114-the-promise-collection-pedigree-fawcett-publications-1950-cgc-vf-nm-90-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122204-17656.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116

So if a 9,0, not the highest but still a rare book can make 3 times guide, why couldn't my example above? Or could it now that the market is hungry for high grade random GA books due to all the reasons given by @buttock?

Edited January 25, 2022 by William-James88

[Aman619]

auction fever can be a big factor.  There was an Archie that sat without a nibble for 3K on ebay.  Wildly optimistic Ebay ask price.  Highest graded copy of the first Sabrina?? (the Mad House cover with the zoo).  Anyway, was in a recent Heritage auction and hammered for over 15K (as memory serves and too lazy to look it up.)   go figure

[buttock]

On 1/25/2022 at 1:24 PM, William-James88 said:

So if I sell my Master comics 30, which rarely shows up for auction at that grade (or ever) in 9.0, which I bought for $266 2 years ago, it would sell for over 1 G?

No. 

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 3:54 PM, buttock said:

No. 

why? Didn't you just say it could? Since it fits your description, it does not come on the market much and there are few high grades.

And would it sell for 1G if it had the words "promise collection" on it?

Edited January 25, 2022 by William-James88

[buttock]

On 1/25/2022 at 1:57 PM, William-James88 said:

why? Didn,t you just say it could?

And would it sell for 1G if it had the words "promise collection" on it?

No.  

[lou_fine]

On 1/25/2022 at 5:26 AM, William-James88 said:

In terms of content and quality, I do find it very similar to the Davis Crippen collection, though higher grade on average (I think). 

Yes, as I was only referencing it from a content quality POV only, as it is quite clear to me that the condition quality of the Promise Collection is far superior.  

Kind of unfortuante that the grading of this Promise Collection was not up to snuff and did not received the quality grading that a collection of this magnitue and significance should have received.  Although it clearly has not damaged the dollar values of the individual books within the marketplace in the short term, it has probably damaged the reputation and legacy of this pedigree collection within the hobby place going forward in the long term.  

[MrBedrock]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:57 PM, William-James88 said:

why? 

Because it is kind of an ugly 9.0?

[lou_fine]

On 1/25/2022 at 12:45 PM, William-James88 said:

So if a 9,0, not the highest but still a rare book can make 3 times guide, why couldn't my example above? Or could it now that the market is hungry for high grade random GA books due to all the reasons given by @buttock?

I tend to get the feeling that these later or mid-run non-key GA books are probably not as rare as Heritage and others might say if they are referencing the CGC Census Population Report only.  

Probably more a case of these are the exact types of books that a lot of collectors might not find worthwhile to slab due to their lower preceived value.  If they come within a pedigree collection though, then the pedigree designation tends to go a long way to giving it that added extra value on top, especially when coupled with the "false sense" of rarity.  

 

[clarkkentdds]

I only follow GA DC, so I'm not sure about the entirety of the Promise collection, but I saw prices down about 20-25% in the last auction.

Random goofy DCs that scored a 9.6/9.8 achieved prices a few months ago that were just not sustainable. And sure enough the prices on similar books went down in the more recent auction.

 

[adamstrange]

On 1/25/2022 at 5:52 PM, clarkkentdds said:

I only follow GA DC,

A man of taste and refinement. 

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 5:01 PM, lou_fine said:

I tend to get the feeling that these later or mid-run non-key GA books are probably not as rare as Heritage and others might say if they are referencing the CGC Census Population Report only.  

Probably more a case of these are the exact types of books that a lot of collectors might not find worthwhile to slab due to their lower preceived value.  If they come within a pedigree collection though, then the pedigree designation tends to go a long way to giving it that added extra value on top, especially when coupled with the "false sense" of rarity.  

 

Ah, yes, that sounds right. The pedigree brings about the attention and then the presumed rarity brings the triple guide prices. So it become a perfect storm that can't be recreated if you then put up a book for auction that is not in that same pedigree.

[William-James88]

On 1/25/2022 at 4:57 PM, MrBedrock said:

Because it is kind of an ugly 9.0?

I agree, it is, colour wise. But the Promise collection has some pretty ugly 9.4s/9.6s which people have been complaining about a few pages back. Hence why I felt it was an apt comparison with people buying the slab and not the grade in these auctions (or at least, that's what some are saying).

[MrBedrock]

On 1/25/2022 at 5:37 PM, William-James88 said:

I agree, it is, colour wise. But the Promise collection has some pretty ugly 9.4s/9.6s which people have been complaining about a few pages back. Hence why I felt it was an apt comparison with people buying the slab and not the grade in these auctions (or at least, that's what some are saying).

Which Promise books are folks having issues with in regard to eye appeal and preservation not related to structural issues?