Financial Issues or More Inventory? 2 2

[Guest Race]

I've been firm on the idea that larger financial issues (poor stock market and crypto performance over the past 6 months, coupled with inflation) have left a lot of people with less money/purchasing power and this will hurt OA pricing in the short term. Another member, however, posted something equally intriguing: that all of the inventory suddenly coming to market out of black hole collections is removing liquidity which would otherwise flow to middle and lower tier pages, i.e., softening this part of the market. Had not considered this before, but it makes sense.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Guest

[GotSuperPowers?]

I think the McFarlane X-Force issues in Heritage will be a shining example of this - too much inventory at the same time hurting the potential end price if it was 2-3 at a time, over time.

But it's probably all the things.

[vodou]

No doubt this phenomenon is happening everywhere, including collectibles.

"The Demand For Random Suddenly Vanished, Taking Everyone By Surprise"

...hastiness in cutting orders left shelves empty and consumers furious. Now that they’ve built back up, customers aren’t buying anymore and their balance sheets are destroyed.

FRI JUN 10, AT 5:45 AM

[John E.]

Just my personal observations, nothing scientific.

The 7 Stages of Art on eBay

Stage 1: a $1300 FMV page pops up on eBay for $2800.

Stage 2: The listing immediately accrues 11 watchers. John E. is one of them because he’s curious to know if anyone takes the bait.

Stage 3: After 48-36 hours, John E. receives an email informing him that the seller is giving him a special, private offer as a watcher. He can now save anywhere from 5%-40%.

Stage 4: After 48 hours John E. receives notification that his special offer has expired. 

Stage 5: John E. receives notification that an item he is watching has been discounted by 30%-40%.

Stage 6: John E. receives notification that the item he has been watching is no longer available. John E. checks the seller’s sales history but the art is not part of it. 
 

Stage 7: Artwork is shipped off to Comic Link. 

[Will_K]

On 6/10/2022 at 1:42 PM, John E. said:

Stage 7: Artwork is shipped off to Comic Link. 

Please let us know how it sells.

[John E.]

On 6/10/2022 at 1:07 PM, Will_K said:

Please let us know how it sells.

Sorry for the confusion here — this is not my art. I don’t sell art on eBay anymore. These are my general observations of art I see on eBay that is overpriced because everyone thinks they can get Heritage Auction hammer prices outside of Heritage. When they find out they can’t (particularly on eBay), they take it down and try somewhere else, like ComicLink. 

[Will_K]

It sounded like this was not a hypothetical situation.  I didn't think it was your piece but that you might follow the sale.

Well, I'll admit that I'm not chomping at the bit to spend big bucks.  On the other hand, although I have consigned a piece to a dealer, I'm generally not interested in selling art. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Will_K

[Grant Turner]

It seems as if we are at a proverbial line in the sand.

on one hand, long term collectors; saying “that’s not the FMV, based on my history and knowledge”

on the other, sellers; saying “it’s the new normal”, based on current trends, and a little prognostication.

I think within the next two or three big auctions we’ll have a better idea who’s right.

 

(as an example to John E, I’m watching something on eBay.  Its a page from a key Marvel Bronze Age #1 that doesn’t feature the title character.  The book is the first appearance of another Marvel luminary, one of my favorites, but he doesn’t appear, he’s just mentioned.  I’m tempted to go for it just for that reason, but it’s about 2x-3x what I think it should be worth.  Seller has already marked it down once. Now I just wait to see if he’ll go lower still)

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Grant Turner

[Rick2you2]

On 6/10/2022 at 3:47 PM, Grant Turner said:

It seems as if we are at a proverbial line in the sand.

on one hand, long term collectors; saying “that’s not the FMV, based on my history and knowledge”

on the other, sellers; saying “it’s the new normal”, based on current trends, and a little prognostication.

I think within the next two or three big auctions we’ll have a better idea who’s right.

 

(as an example to John E, I’m watching something on eBay.  Its a page from a key Marvel Bronze Age #1 that doesn’t feature the title character.  The book is the first appearance of another Marvel luminary, one of my favorites, but he doesn’t appear, he’s just mentioned.  I’m tempted to go for it just for that reason, but it’s about 2x-3x what I think it should be worth.  Seller has already marked it down once. Now I just wait to see if he’ll go lower still)

 

Check the seller’s sales history. If he doesn’t sell much, he may feel he’s already giving a big discount and won’t want to give more. Then check his buying history. See what he buys. If it’s OA, he is probably knowledgeable and maybe more willing to deal. How long between listing and markdown? Big gap or small? Check his rating. Look for comments. They sometimes tip off the kind of person he is. 

[John E.]

On 6/10/2022 at 2:47 PM, Grant Turner said:

It seems as if we are at a proverbial line in the sand.

on one hand, long term collectors; saying “that’s not the FMV, based on my history and knowledge”

on the other, sellers; saying “it’s the new normal”, based on current trends, and a little prognostication.

I think within the next two or three big auctions we’ll have a better idea who’s right.

 

(as an example to John E, I’m watching something on eBay.  Its a page from a key Marvel Bronze Age #1 that doesn’t feature the title character.  The book is the first appearance of another Marvel luminary, one of my favorites, but he doesn’t appear, he’s just mentioned.  I’m tempted to go for it just for that reason, but it’s about 2x-3x what I think it should be worth.  Seller has already marked it down once. Now I just wait to see if he’ll go lower still)

 

I know exactly the feelings you’re sitting on, and as such, you’re likely dealing with FOMO. Knowing you through your posts and your collection over the years, I say to continue buying with an art collector’s taste. Continue listening to your gut. Let someone else pay “A-level” money for “C-level” examples. (Assuming that the page has nothing else going for it other than being part of the first appearance issue.)

[Hockeyflow33]

As a low-end buyer under $300 it seems like over the last few weeks there are more options available again during the weekly Heritage auctions and the last Comicconnect auction. 

[Michael Browning]

On 6/10/2022 at 11:55 PM, Hockeyflow33 said:

As a low-end buyer under $300 it seems like over the last few weeks there are more options available again during the weekly Heritage auctions and the last Comicconnect auction. 

The $3.36 million sale of the Secret Wars page caused everyone to start dumping their collections with the hopes that they, too, would get rich by selling their long-hidden Frank Springer Dazzler and Steve Ditko Fly pages. From what I hear, there’s no supply chain problems in the comic art auction business right now.

[CGC Mike]

On 7/6/2022 at 7:53 AM, CynthiaGeorge said:

I don't care if it makes sense or not. I know just it is so harsh to "survive" with my mom's salary that now doesn't cover all the needs of my little tween brothers...

Hello

Is there a reason why you have your full address listed for the public to view?  This is very unusual.

[delekkerste]

As someone who is more active in trading cards than art these days, I can tell you that liquidity has just evaporated in the blink of an eye in the low-to-medium end of the card market. Prices have taken another turn lower over the past couple of months, on top of already having tanked from their Q1 2021 peak. Most of the card market - which had been molten in 2020, blowing comics and OA away in some cases by hundreds or even thousands of percent gains - peaked at that time, the same time that many of the hottest disruptive growth stocks (e.g., Zoom Communications, Palantir, Teladoc, etc.) hit their all-time highs (Narrator: never to be seen again).

What's perhaps more ominous, though, is that the high/ultra-high end of the card market - where supply is more limited and prices are (much) higher, making it more comparable to high-end comics and original art - has finally started to roll over as well in recent weeks/months. You can't expect to vaporize tens of trillions of dollars of (paper) wealth globally and not expect it to have an impact on just about everything. 

The longer this downturn in the markets and economy (it's readily apparent that we are probably in a technical recession already) lasts, the harder it will be for the ever-dwindling number of holdouts (e.g., certain real estate markets and segments of the art/collectibles market) to not share in the pain.  

Edited July 6, 2022 by delekkerste

[Get Marwood & I]

On 7/6/2022 at 12:53 PM, CynthiaGeorge said:

I don't care if it makes sense or not. I know just it is so harsh to "survive" with my mom's salary that now doesn't cover all the needs of my little tween brothers...

Hello Cynthia,

You may not be aware that the personal details that you enter under 'location' on your 'edit profile page' are actually reproduced publicly when you access the site from a desktop. Consequently, your full address is showing for all to see each time you post - see that I have painted it out in the screen shot below:

The location doesn't show when you access the forum from a mobile / cell phone, which might explain things if you weren't aware - one might easily assume the details entered under profile would remain private with the way things are set up here.

If you want to remove it, go back to your profile page and change the 'location' accordingly. Otherwise, you may find that you start getting Christmas cards from our less salubrious board surfing well wishers. 

Good luck, and welcome to the forum 

 

[Fischb1]

It's not a real address. Put it in Waze/Google and you'll see it doesn't exist. 

[Get Marwood & I]

On 7/6/2022 at 3:24 PM, Fischb1 said:

It's not a real address. Put it in Waze/Google and you'll see it doesn't exist. 

Really? 

Drat.

Let me see if I can cancel that welcome basket.....

[Rick2you2]

On 7/6/2022 at 10:24 AM, Fischb1 said:

It's not a real address. Put it in Waze/Google and you'll see it doesn't exist. 

Then how is she going to solicit funds for her family? PayPal?

Edited July 6, 2022 by Rick2you2

[CGC Mike]

On 7/6/2022 at 1:31 PM, Rick2you2 said:

On 7/6/2022 at 10:24 AM, Fischb1 said:

It's not a real address. Put it in Waze/Google and you'll see it doesn't exist. 

Then how is she going to solicit funds for her family? PayPal?

Not here.  I just escorted her to the door.

[MattTheDuck]

Another tragic example of where I can't "like" Mike's posts