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Record Setting UF4 Newsstand Sale
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Started by Tank Brocklehurst,

20 posts in this topic

valiantman

valiantman

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Posted (edited)
On 3/16/2023 at 2:42 AM, godzilla43 said:

That is a big drop 7000$ less for only one grade less.

On the other hand, that's over $8,000 (closer to $10,000 with BP) for a CGC 9.4 of a book from 2011, and according to some people, it's not even a "true variant".  Name another "regular edition" from 2011 that sells for even $800 in CGC 9.4, much less $8,000+.

Edited by valiantman
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GeeksAreMyPeeps

GeeksAreMyPeeps

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On 3/16/2023 at 1:56 PM, maraxusofkeld said:

Amazing, you could have bought a lower grade major SA Marvel key for that kind of money.

I wonder if condition (before any other factors) plays a much bigger part in the decision-making process of people willing to spring for that much for a modern Newsstand or Variant. Moreso than the average collector, that is. Like they'd shy away from the Silver Age ket for the same price because there are much better examples of that particular book out there (even if it's outside their budget).

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maraxusofkeld

maraxusofkeld

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I think this book has a lot of hype as being the next big thing, and I agree it’s a modern key, but Peter Parker IS Spider-Man. I think speculation has a lot to do with the value and people think it’s going to go substantially higher, but it has taken exponential price increases over the past few years and I think you will see a bit of a cool off.

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valiantman

valiantman

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On 3/30/2023 at 9:32 PM, maraxusofkeld said:

I think this book has a lot of hype as being the next big thing, and I agree it’s a modern key, but Peter Parker IS Spider-Man. I think speculation has a lot to do with the value and people think it’s going to go substantially higher, but it has taken exponential price increases over the past few years and I think you will see a bit of a cool off.

Like everything else, I think "cooling off" is a definitely possibility, however, this book (UF #4 Newsstand) might be a perfect storm similar to TMNT #1.

TMNT #1 is the first appearance of a very popular "household" name but characters based on earlier characters (and a parody), limited to 3,000 copies (or just a few more), not available in comic shops, popular enough for reprintings, but not treated like a "collector's item" by many who purchased it in the first year, which organically (not artificially) became the biggest book in the past 40 years.

UF #4 is the first appearance of "another" Spider-Man, not the original, the newsstand edition was limited (no one knows how many, but they're not turning up often), not available in comic shops, popular enough for reprintings, but not treated like a "collector's item" by many who purchased (the newsstand) in the first year, which organically (not artificially) has become one of the biggest books in the past 30 years.

Compared to the other "biggest books" since the 1990s, UF #4 newsstand is the only one with all these factors, and other recent books with similar pricing today were always "collector's items" (and usually required 50 or 100 sales of regular editions to "redeem"), so the "artificial scarcity" (planned by the publisher) of all these premium variants is certainly successful (sometimes), but it's always "artificial"... and that gives off a "Franklin Mint" vibe that's hard to shake.

Organic scarcity (relative to other editions of the same book, not Golden Age scarcity) combined with interior pages that actually matter (first appearance) is not a common occurrence after TMNT.

Artificial scarcity combined with interior pages that don't matter is still making very big money for some books, and if I had to bet, I'd say both of those are going to be long-term "lesser qualities" than organic scarcity and important content.

UF #4 variant sits right in the middle with artificial scarcity but does have important content, and so far, has been valued almost identical to the UF #4 newsstand. Will UF #4 variant fall, or does UF #4 newsstand have room to separate itself from the UF #4 variant? Maybe both.

Edited by valiantman
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maraxusofkeld

maraxusofkeld

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I know I am in the minority with view, but I do not really see why it has achieved the level of "key" status or value regardless of the things you mentioned. You mention organically, but a lot of modern books achieve "key" status as a result of discussions on this specific and similar boards by members sitting on substantial quantities of the book. It is a knock off of a well known character, and in my opinion nothing more, and I would use this argument for X-23 etc. I understand all characters can be, and a lot of times are derivatives of well established characters, but I personally just do not see it. I'm not trying to argue with anyone, I can understand why individuals think it's an important book, I just never got it.

Edited by maraxusofkeld
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valiantman

valiantman

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On 3/31/2023 at 10:07 AM, maraxusofkeld said:

I know I am in the minority with view, but I do not really see why it has achieved the level of "key" status or value regardless of the things you mentioned. You mention organically, but a lot of modern books achieve "key" status as a result of discussions on this specific and similar boards by members sitting on substantial quantities of the book. It is a knock off of a well known character, and in my opinion nothing more, and I would use this argument for X-23 etc. I understand all characters can be, and a lot of times are derivatives of well established characters, but I personally just do not see it. I'm not trying to argue with anyone, I can understand why individuals think it's an important book, I just never got it.

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (not to mention the video games) are essentially "targeting" the latest generation of fans by "giving them" Miles as "their generation's Spider-Man". It's true that Spider-Man will always be Peter Parker, but the animated movie for Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2018) bridges that gap between a middle-aged (retired) Peter Parker and a teenager (from a parallel universe) named Miles Morales. Peter trains Miles on "being Spider-Man" and there are several others from other parallel universes, but Miles is the "main one", Peter is the "original one", and the others are "also there", including Spider-Gwen. The second animated Miles movie rolls out in June 2023.

The Marvel universe in the early 1960s created "new characters" for the generation that didn't grow up in the 1940s with D.C. heroes. The Valiant universe (and the Image individual titles) in the early 1990s were popular as the "next generation" of characters who didn't already have 30+ years of history (which were missed by younger people), but a third universe didn't really join Marvel and D.C. anywhere near their impact. I guess the Turtles are close to being "as big" as several of the upper tier Marvel and D.C. characters.

The 1970s added Wolverine and Punisher to Marvel, new characters for people to jump on board right from the beginning. The 1980s added the black suit Spider-Man and eventually Venom. The 1990s didn't really add to the strongest in Marvel's lineup, maybe Deadpool? Anyway, the 2000s ushered in the idea of "Spider-Man for the next generation" with Ultimate Spider-Man being Peter Parker, but Peter Parker in high school in the 2000s, not in the 1960s. It was really Star Wars which exploded its character base in the late 1990s and 2000s, followed by the movement of both Star Wars and Marvel under the Disney umbrella.

I don't think we've seen another "next generation" of characters in comics get (as) popular amongst the "next generation" of fans as Miles and Gwen with spider-powers since the early 1990s. Other franchises have been more popular (in other media), Harry Potter, Pokemon, Hunger Games, etc., and Walking Dead has had its day (mainly targeting adults), but within the comics world, we've had the "classics" continuing their 50+ year histories, and we've got the younger Marvel characters. None are as big as Miles, despite having their own live action series streaming and appearing in live action billion dollar movies. Miles seems to be "all upside" at this point. 

I've always recommended waiting 10 years before deciding that a comic book is a "solid investment" - which has kept me from playing the ink-is-still-wet variant (hot potato) games that some people actually use as their main source of income. Yes, you have to strike while the iron is hot when you're trying to keep the ball rolling, but if you're in the hobby for decades, there's not much reason to jump on books that haven't reached their first (decade) birthday yet. Even colleges and professional sports (which are billions of dollars of continuous hype) don't pretend kids under the age of 10 are worth their interest, no matter how many views their amazing skills videos get. "Next big thing" comics (and kids) under 10, and especially comics under 2, are mostly going to fizzle out and be in minimum wage (boxes) by the time they reach 16.

UF #4 is almost 12. Only now can we really say it's stood the first decade test of time.

Edited by valiantman
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Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

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Miles Morales IS Spider-Man (also).  He IS Spider-Man even to Peter Parker (says so in the comics).  Miles' Spider-Man IS a derivative of Peter Parker's Spider-Man, but obviously not an attempt to get rid of Peter Parker's Spider-Man as he was brought into a separate universe.

I'm not sure why he can't be Spider-Man?  We can all have our Peter Parker while still accepting Miles Morales.  I am definitely not saying this as a representation of today's participation trophy world, but as a collector of Miles Morales.

He (Miles) is the Spider-Man of today's youth and they will grow up with him as we did with Peter (as long as Marvel stays in business).

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

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On 3/31/2023 at 8:07 AM, maraxusofkeld said:

I know I am in the minority with view, but I do not really see why it has achieved the level of "key" status or value regardless of the things you mentioned. You mention organically, but a lot of modern books achieve "key" status as a result of discussions on this specific and similar boards by members sitting on substantial quantities of the book. It is a knock off of a well known character, and in my opinion nothing more, and I would use this argument for X-23 etc. I understand all characters can be, and a lot of times are derivatives of well established characters, but I personally just do not see it. I'm not trying to argue with anyone, I can understand why individuals think it's an important book, I just never got it.

Of course everyone knows what you're saying is true.  But there's a lot of people on these boards/facebook groups that evidently have their life savings invested in this character or something and they NEED to believe that there is more to this character than there has ever been or ever will be. No, he is nothing more than one of hundreds of other derivative spider rip off wannabes. The level and degree of pump and dump I've seen with this character has been unprecedented.  

And to those who say "he's 'this generation's Spider-man'".  Whatever. I'm pretty sure much more of "this generation" has seen actual Spider-man in billion dollar MCU movies the last ten years than have the one low rent Sony cartoon that hardly broke even at the box office.  :eyeroll: Which is why, even in nerd space, people.almost universally refer to him by his first name , not his absurd and ridiuculous hijacked identity name, including by Marvel on his low selling comic books. I mean seriously Marvel, give the guy his own hero identity already so he can NOT be forever engulfed and rendered ultimately irrelevant by actual Spider-man's long, tall and insurmountable shadow. Everybody knows who Spider-man actually is just like everybody knows who Batman is and everyone knows who Thor is and everyone knows who Wolverine is and even many if not most non comic readers know who the real Green Lantern is, if not by actual name, by picture.  

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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GeeksAreMyPeeps

GeeksAreMyPeeps

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On 4/2/2023 at 11:50 AM, Jaydogrules said:

Whatever. I'm pretty sure much more of "this generation" has seen actual Spider-man in billion dollar MCU movies the last ten years than have the one low rent Sony cartoon that hardly broke even at the box office.

"hardly broke even"? It made more than 4x its budget back. And it's one of the few comic book–based movies to win an Academy Award.

On 4/2/2023 at 11:50 AM, Jaydogrules said:

Everybody knows who Spider-man actually is just like everybody knows who Batman is and everyone knows who Thor is and everyone knows who Wolverine is and even many if not most non comic readers know who the real Green Lantern is, if not by actual name, by picture. 

Alan Scott?

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Dr. Balls

Dr. Balls

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On 3/16/2023 at 11:56 AM, maraxusofkeld said:

Amazing, you could have bought a lower grade major SA Marvel key for that kind of money.

I'm always curious about this book. I am admittedly uneducated about Miles Morales, but it seems to me that the people spending $18k on a book that is this new are likely the collectors/speculators/investors not necessarily the fans (or a major fan has $18k for the book). Does this mean the true value is the actual buzz around the character or the buzz around the book?

Even with the various printings, with the variant craze going on, are those being picked up by true fans who can't spend the money on a 1st printing, or are they also being picked up by the collectors/speculators/investors?

Is there enough people who have grown up with Miles Morales as Spider-man passionate enough about the character to prop up the buzz around this book, and also generating enough demand that Marvel continues to push Miles Morales as Spider-man? These are all curiosities to me, especially with a modern book hitting $18k where the commonality of the books really isn't known (and probably won't be for many years).

 

Edited by Dr. Balls
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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

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Posted (edited)
On 4/2/2023 at 10:18 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

"hardly broke even"? It made more than 4x its budget back. And it's one of the few comic book–based movies to win an Academy Award.

Alan Scott?

The "multiple" on movies with smaller budgets are skewed because the marketing on them remains the same.  It had about a 90 million dollar budget with about another 90 million spent on worldwide prints, ads and  distribution.  Which makes its 360M look "meh" especially when compared to Venom which came out the same year, had a similar budget and made $850M

And nobody cares about Oscar winning cartoons (or the Oscars in general anymore for that matter lol).  But as those go, it's actually the third lowest grossing cartoon to get an Oscar in history, only ahead of Rango and Spirited Away.  Hell, Puss and Boots made more money at the tail end of a pandemic and no China release.  

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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GeeksAreMyPeeps

GeeksAreMyPeeps

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On 4/2/2023 at 3:53 PM, Jaydogrules said:

The "multiple" on movies with smaller budgets are skewed because the marketing on them remains the same.  It had about a 90 million dollar budget with about another 90 million spent on worldwide prints, ads and  distribution.  Which makes its 360M look "meh" especially when compared to Venom which came out the same year, had a similar budget and made $850M

And nobody cares about Oscar winning cartoons (or the Oscars in general anymore for that matter lol).  But as those go, it's actually the third lowest grossing cartoon to get an Oscar in history, behind Rango and Spirited away.  Hell Puss and Boots made more money at the tail end of a pandemic and no China release.  

-J.

Adding in 90 million for marketing still means it brought in more than twice its budget. Which means you're still wrong to suggest it "hardly broke even."

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

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On 4/2/2023 at 2:49 PM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Adding in 90 million for marketing still means it brought in more than twice its budget. Which means you're still wrong to suggest it "hardly broke even."

Studios only get back about half of box office, so yes, it hardly/barely broke even theatrically after all was said and done.   

-J.

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