June 2023 Heritage Signature Auction #7340 4 4

[Bronty]

Well, what else were you expecting?   

A $6m potential sale for a piece that surprises some people is going to have some of that.     Maybe it’s pessimistic maybe it’s realistic but it’s never going to be a discussion that is all sunshine and puppies.    Besides we just came out of three years of sunshine and puppies that halted pretty abruptly…

[Fischb1]

On 6/19/2023 at 5:03 PM, Bronty said:

Well, what else were you expecting?   

A $6m potential sale for a piece that surprises some people is going to have some of that.     Maybe it’s pessimistic maybe it’s realistic but it’s never going to be a discussion that is all sunshine and puppies.    Besides we just came out of three years of sunshine and puppies that halted pretty abruptly…

Bronty, I know you're a video game collector, or maybe more specifically a video game art collector, so I can understand if your "halted pretty abruptly" is referring to that market. But, if your comment is geared towards the original comic art, I really don't think that's been true at all. The comiclink results were strong. The Heritage auction is this weekend and already a number of pages are very high. Weekly auctions are still bringing in huge numbers. I just came back from Heroes con where a lot of big deals were made. Are there some pages that aren't selling well? Sure. Is the market stabilizing? Maybe? But you make it sound like you've witnessed some great fall that I just haven't see evidence of yet. I guess we'll all know more after this weekend's HA auction, and maybe you'll be right. But for right now, it's just a guessing game. 

[tth2]

On 6/20/2023 at 9:08 AM, Fischb1 said:

Bronty, I know you're a video game collector, or maybe more specifically a video game art collector, so I can understand if your "halted pretty abruptly" is referring to that market. But, if your comment is geared towards the original comic art, I really don't think that's been true at all. The comiclink results were strong. The Heritage auction is this weekend and already a number of pages are very high. Weekly auctions are still bringing in huge numbers. I just came back from Heroes con where a lot of big deals were made. Are there some pages that aren't selling well? Sure. Is the market stabilizing? Maybe? But you make it sound like you've witnessed some great fall that I just haven't see evidence of yet. I guess we'll all know more after this weekend's HA auction, and maybe you'll be right. But for right now, it's just a guessing game. 

+1

If there's a correction happening in OA, I ain't seeing it.  At least not on the quality end.

[Bronty]

On 6/19/2023 at 9:08 PM, Fischb1 said:

Bronty, I know you're a video game collector, or maybe more specifically a video game art collector, so I can understand if your "halted pretty abruptly" is referring to that market. But, if your comment is geared towards the original comic art, I really don't think that's been true at all. The comiclink results were strong. The Heritage auction is this weekend and already a number of pages are very high. Weekly auctions are still bringing in huge numbers. I just came back from Heroes con where a lot of big deals were made. Are there some pages that aren't selling well? Sure. Is the market stabilizing? Maybe? But you make it sound like you've witnessed some great fall that I just haven't see evidence of yet. I guess we'll all know more after this weekend's HA auction, and maybe you'll be right. But for right now, it's just a guessing game. 

That's fair; comic art hasn't dropped as much as most things, but I'm not sure there's a category of collectibles that is, broadly speaking, up since interest rates started going up.      I collect in 5-6 different categories so yes I do tend to think about more than just comic art, but even in comics the drops have been quite noticeable.    We discussed in another thread about how someone lost a cool million on flipping a Superman 1 in 7.0 recently.      Cash is harder and pricier to come by and that's taking the wind out of the sails of all asset classes.

[Fischb1]

On 6/19/2023 at 11:51 PM, Bronty said:

That's fair; comic art hasn't dropped as much as most things, but I'm not sure there's a category of collectibles that is, broadly speaking, up since interest rates started going up.      I collect in 5-6 different categories so yes I do tend to think about more than just comic art, but even in comics the drops have been quite noticeable.    We discussed in another thread about how someone lost a cool million on flipping a Superman 1 in 7.0 recently.      Cash is harder and pricier to come by and that's taking the wind out of the sails of all asset classes.

Yes. Comics have gone way down. That is definitely true. Some as much as 80% off their height. But I don't think of comics and comic art as the same asset class. If I'm having a rough financial time, I can sell off any comic and buy it back later. Whether I want the same grade or a different grade, I can always get one back (except in very rare circumstances). But if I sell a piece of comic art I love, it's most probably gone forever. And the same is true if one I love comes up for sale: Even if I'm worried about a recession, I know that if I pass, I may never have the shot again, so I somehow make it work. Very different asset classes at least in my opinion. 

[Bronty]

Sure.  They are different.   Covid money didn’t much flow to comic art in the run up, so not much had to flow out.   IMO though the broader discussion is that nothing is on fire right now.    Not Bitcoin, not stocks, not real estate , not collectibles, because we measure all those things in cash terms and cash is up. 
 

So a 6m sale in this environment is especially noteworthy , “different” asset class or not - because even if prices don’t fall, they seem especially unlikely to significantly rise when nothing else is rising.    And as such IMO it’s only more likely to have fewer bidders and probably one bidder.   I don’t think that’s some gigantic leap on my part.   We shall see.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Bronty

[vodou]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:02 AM, Bronty said:

IMO though the broader discussion is that nothing is on fire right now.    Not Bitcoin, not stocks, not real estate , not collectibles, because we measure all those things in cash terms and cash is up.

Long way to go just to get back to 1981; the hole is much deeper now though 😉

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Yield | 8:28 AM EDT

3.744%-0.025

Edited June 20, 2023 by vodou

[Fischb1]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:02 AM, Bronty said:

IMO though the broader discussion is that nothing is on fire right now.    Not Bitcoin, not stocks, not real estate , not collectibles, because we measure all those things in cash terms and cash is up. 

I hear what you're saying, but again, let me step in with some facts: BTC is up 60% ytd. The S&P 500 is up 15% YTD and that's after starting in a deep hole and digging it's way back out (to now be up 15%). So, are many collectibles down? Yes! Comics, and Video games have gotten killed. Is everything down? No. Not at all. If you just look at news headlines everything seems glum. But if you check the facts, plenty of asset classes are doing fine to great. 

(I also think we may have a bigger downturn soon. I'm just saying that it hasn't happened yet. People are just saying it's happened and finding random examples here and there to prove something that just isn't true yet.) 

P.S. If a number of pieces slip through the cracks this weekend in HA and end at low prices,  I hope to be the winner on a few of them. 

[Bronty]

 You can say things in certain classes have bounced back 10-15% off of YTD lows and I won’t argue; I’ve seen that in some collectible classes too.   But in the categories I watch the stuff that’s doing “great” is basically flat and the stuff that’s doing poorly is well, doing poorly.    I’m not sure what changes if you want to parse this asset class or that asset class.  
 

Let me just ask you this:   Do you think that _on average_ it’s easier or harder to write a 6m check than it was two years ago?   That’s really the only question at hand. 
 

Anyways, that’s my 2 cents.   If you have a reply then let’s take it to pm’s to leave the discussion flowing for everyone else 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Bronty

[cstojano]

On 6/20/2023 at 8:12 PM, Bronty said:

 You can say things in certain classes have bounced back 10-15% off of YTD lows and I won’t argue; I’ve seen that in some collectible classes too.   But in the categories I watch the stuff that’s doing “great” is basically flat and the stuff that’s doing poorly is well, doing poorly.    I’m not sure what changes if you want to parse this asset class or that asset class.  
 

Let me just ask you this:   Do you think that _on average_ it’s easier or harder to write a 6m check than it was two years ago?   That’s really the only question at hand. 
 

Anyways, that’s my 2 cents.   If you have a reply then let’s take it to pm’s to leave the discussion flowing for everyone else 

I am happy to say my ability to write a 6M check has not changed one bit in the last two years

[MrBedrock]

On 6/19/2023 at 2:55 PM, TupennyConan said:

Let's review:

1. Frazetta sucks.

2  HA sucks. 

3. Weird legs on DK, so it sucks.

4. Halperin sucks.

5. EQ way better than DK, because it sucks.

6. Only 1 person in the hobby can afford nosebleedprices, because we suck.

This post sucks.

[otherworldsj331]

On 6/20/2023 at 5:28 AM, vodou said:

Long way to go just to get back to 1981; the hole is much deeper now though 😉

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Yield | 8:28 AM EDT

3.744%-0.025

As long as interest rates are below a certain threshold, we will not see those rates again.

[otherworldsj331]

I have been saying for over a year that the price declines are coming. They will continue.

The economy is in dire shape. Inflation is far from licked and in fact will increase to record numbers next year.

People are hurting in this economy. 

 

[comix4fun]

On 6/20/2023 at 1:08 PM, otherworldsj331 said:

I have been saying for over a year that the price declines are coming. They will continue.

The economy is in dire shape. Inflation is far from licked and in fact will increase to record numbers next year.

People are hurting in this economy. 

 

There seems to be a dual economy running in the US right now. There's a segment that's never done better, while simultaneously wide swaths of the middle class that are just starting to see prices ease in the last several months but still not having an easy go of it yet.
I am not sure if the folks hurting are the same ones buying Kirby Avengers for $80k, just for example.
So I've always had a very hard time drawing a bright line from economic indicators for the entire US population and comparing it to collectors who freak out and spend the average annual household income of Connecticut on a single piece of artwork, and do so regularly. 
What indicators are you looking at, specifically? I am always curious to see what others use in their analyses. I haven't found one that helps me on non-utilitarian "fun" purchases like OA.  
Record inflation for the US would be somewhere in the range of 30% or, for modern times in the last century or so 20%. 
US inflation peaked earlier this year at 9.1%, and currently sitting at 4%. To hit a record it would have to more than double its current era high and exceed the 70's stagflation/oil embargo levels by 50%-70%.
I am most interested in what indicators might point to 20% inflation next year. If  they are on solid corroborative grounds with other trends then I have to move some money around.  

[delekkerste]

On 6/20/2023 at 1:53 PM, MrBedrock said:

This post sucks.

The Astros suck.  

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2023 at 3:08 PM, stinkininkin said:

With Frazetta art, you have to know the "three B's". Babes, Barbarians and Beasts, in that order.  I'm sorta kidding, but not kidding. Vintage, medium, size, and general eye appeal matter a LOT, but those things being equal, the more B's you have in a given piece, the higher the premium. As far as this specific comparison, I would take Egyptian Queen all day over Dark Kingdom, and so would 99.9% of my fellow Frazetta collectors, regardless of price.

For me, Frazetta art is all about the "three Cs" - Conan, Conan, Conan, in that order.  

[comix4fun]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:05 AM, delekkerste said:

For me, Frazetta art is all about the "three Cs" - Conan, Conan, Conan, in that order.  

I totally thought one of those was going to be "Curvaceous" ....dammit. 

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2023 at 9:28 AM, tth2 said:

It's bizarre that it's been met so early and not during live bidding or just before live bidding.

My guess is that HA tripped their own (high) reserve early to give potential buyers enough time to think about going even higher rather than catching them off-guard the day-of or the day before. 

[Rick2you2]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:37 AM, comix4fun said:

There seems to be a dual economy running in the US right now. There's a segment that's never done better, while simultaneously wide swaths of the middle class that are just starting to see prices ease in the last several months but still not having an easy go of it yet.
I am not sure if the folks hurting are the same ones buying Kirby Avengers for $80k, just for example.
So I've always had a very hard time drawing a bright line from economic indicators for the entire US population and comparing it to collectors who freak out and spend the average annual household income of Connecticut on a single piece of artwork, and do so regularly. 
What indicators are you looking at, specifically? I am always curious to see what others use in their analyses. I haven't found one that helps me on non-utilitarian "fun" purchases like OA.  
Record inflation for the US would be somewhere in the range of 30% or, for modern times in the last century or so 20%. 
US inflation peaked earlier this year at 9.1%, and currently sitting at 4%. To hit a record it would have to more than double its current era high and exceed the 70's stagflation/oil embargo levels by 50%-70%.
I am most interested in what indicators might point to 20% inflation next year. If  they are on solid corroborative grounds with other trends then I have to move some money around.  

I don’t think you will see that, and I have a pretty good prediction record. To my way of thinking, visualize the economy as a giant python which has eaten a large meal. The meal in this case was all the Covid money used to prop up the economy. As time passes, the bump in the snake gets smaller until it vanishes. So, what we have seen is a bump in inflation after the Covid money is injected, caused by a mix of demand-pull inflation (people spending while stuck at home, then free to leave and spending freely) and cost-push inflation (the supply chain). Eventually, people run out of excess money used to buy overpriced collectibles, and things mostly go back to the way they were, except where there is a chokehold caused by limited competition (as in meat processors), and accounting for an increased base level of pricing.

[batman_fan]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:37 AM, comix4fun said:

There seems to be a dual economy running in the US right now. There's a segment that's never done better, while simultaneously wide swaths of the middle class that are just starting to see prices ease in the last several months but still not having an easy go of it yet.
I am not sure if the folks hurting are the same ones buying Kirby Avengers for $80k, just for example.
So I've always had a very hard time drawing a bright line from economic indicators for the entire US population and comparing it to collectors who freak out and spend the average annual household income of Connecticut on a single piece of artwork, and do so regularly. 
What indicators are you looking at, specifically? I am always curious to see what others use in their analyses. I haven't found one that helps me on non-utilitarian "fun" purchases like OA.  
Record inflation for the US would be somewhere in the range of 30% or, for modern times in the last century or so 20%. 
US inflation peaked earlier this year at 9.1%, and currently sitting at 4%. To hit a record it would have to more than double its current era high and exceed the 70's stagflation/oil embargo levels by 50%-70%.
I am most interested in what indicators might point to 20% inflation next year. If  they are on solid corroborative grounds with other trends then I have to move some money around.  

From my personal perspective

1.  Stock market, killing it.  Accounts are way up, partially because I have a heavy presence in AI based upside companies.

2.  Real Estate - will let you know, we are selling a condo that has appreciated significantly from when we bought it ~ 4 yrs ago.  We remodeled it before putting it on the market.  The trades expense was definitely higher that prior ones we have flipped, but scheduling was easy enough we went from start to finish in just over 2 weeks.  That was rip out everything and replaces everything (literally).  Everything was readily available versus ~1 to 2 years ago where is was hard to get a lot of stuff. Material cost including appliances was definitely down from the peak.

3.  High tech hardware side - definitely seeing a decrease in demand, largely driven by customers over buying and now have a lot of inventory to burn off.  If the slowdown in tech continues, my company will see some decline in revenue.