Collector (or Speculator) Fatigue 2 2

[Book Guy]

On 6/21/2023 at 6:52 AM, Bookery said:

The most alarming collapse of all has to be the rare/used book market.  There were collectors for rare and out-of-print books almost since the invention of the printing press.  It was a huge viable market for 500 years!  Then in a quick 20 year span it all collapsed.  Sure... as has been stated, there are plenty of nosebleed rarities purchased by elites... but many of these are just valuable for being valuable.  Nobody has been reading Fitzgerald or Hemingway or Steinbeck for a couple of generations, and the only reason some of those prices remain high is because they always have been.  More precipitous is simply the fall of the general used book.  You think $1 comic bins are a tumble from $5 retail price?  Try buying $25 hardbacks that are tough sell at $1 a year later.  There is some increasing interest in vintage paperbacks, as there has been with pulps... but that's more to do with cover art than the content within.  I love rare books and still carry some in my shop... but that's out of my own nostalgia rather than a sound business decision.  Rare books, stamps, coins... these were traditionally the gold standard of collectibles.  "Pop culture" collectibles have always been even more ephemeral... with most being popular for only a few years (Beanie Babies) to a few decades (Big Little Books, Hummels, Coca-Cola tie-ins, all-things western) before ultimately having no interest for a new generation.

Absolutely not true! I bought a nice collection with lots of Literary First Edition material about 4 months ago and have been selling the heck out of it. Steinbeck, Hemingway, Stephen King, E F Benson (in jackets), Faulkner, Sci Fi more and more and more. What they have in common is that they are popular authors in good condition with jackets. Usually 'classic'; Authors and not 80's-90's flavor of the month. USUALLY according to my database, they sold for a lot more than they sold the last time that I had one. I was somewhat shocked at how much really nice copies of 'middle period' Stephen King sold for. However, that said I was never at the absolute top of the market. Dealers who sold at the elite level may be having trouble finding customers, but I don't have experience in that realm.

I bought a large collection of Military & Western Americana about 18 months ago. Western America is becoming increasingly hard to sell given cultural & demographic changes but they also sold surprisingly well albeit at 'reasonable' prices. California County Histories did well. Military still has a strong readership. In both areas I only bothered to list books that had some demand behind them and didn't bother with the true low end of the market. I've done this for about 50 years so I have a good eye for what is common and what people actually want.

I am semi-retired so I didn't try to 'push' the prices and that along with careful selection is the key. It is a stock-pickers market right now. You list the right books t the right prices and they sell just fine.

That being said, your larger point is true. What has collapsed is the middle of the market, both middling demand and middling prices. Also maybe middling condition as well. Demographic and generational cohort changes are playing themselves out but the final resolution to that is probably past the end of my career so I don't worry about it. If I buy something that sold in the past, but now there are simply too many copies online or most especially too many CHEAP copies, I don't bother to list them, just donate them to a Thrift. Part of that has to do with my short time horizon. Ten years ago I might have listed them and waited. Not anymore.

I will also note that if not for my most recent purchases my monthly sales would be tepid at best, but that's always the way it is. What sells best is always your newest material. After you have it for a while everybody who is currently looking for a copy has seen yours and you are just wishin' and hopin' until somebody new enters the market. That's always been the way it was.

People who have walk-in shops seem to be doing less well than me and your analysis is probably spot on for those people. Having a bricks and mortar Bookstore seems hard nowadays.

For people who are mostly comic collectors and not that interested in Books, I'll point out that Books and Comics sell differently from each other. There is a very strong emotional/psychological will to buy for comic collectors, a deep and ready market for 'keys' and history of fevered speculation and (mostly) rising prices None of those really apply to Books in the same way. Most Books (except say 'necessary' or 'useful' Books like Textbooks, repair Manuals etc) seem to be bought almost on a whim! There has always been some speculation and flipping in the Book World, but really a tiny fraction of what is common w/ comics.

In short: pick the right books and price them reasonably and they will still sell. The percentage of the available Books that are 'right' is a diminishing percentage of what's available though. I would agree with you that it is a fading business, more like an Antique business than the Book business of yore. However it's still viable and will continue to be.

 

 

 

[Bookery]

On 6/22/2023 at 8:57 PM, Book Guy said:

That being said, your larger point is true. What has collapsed is the middle of the market, both middling demand and middling prices. Also maybe middling condition as well. Demographic and generational cohort changes are playing themselves out but the final resolution to that is probably past the end of my career so I don't worry about it. If I buy something that sold in the past, but now there are simply too many copies online or most especially too many CHEAP copies, I don't bother to list them, just donate them to a Thrift. Part of that has to do with my short time horizon. Ten years ago I might have listed them and waited. Not anymore.

People who have walk-in shops seem to be doing less well than me and your analysis is probably spot on for those people. Having a bricks and mortar Bookstore seems hard nowadays.

For people who are mostly comic collectors and not that interested in Books, I'll point out that Books and Comics sell differently from each other. There is a very strong emotional/psychological will to buy for comic collectors, a deep and ready market for 'keys' and history of fevered speculation and (mostly) rising prices None of those really apply to Books in the same way. Most Books (except say 'necessary' or 'useful' Books like Textbooks, repair Manuals etc) seem to be bought almost on a whim! There has always been some speculation and flipping in the Book World, but really a tiny fraction of what is common w/ comics.

In short: pick the right books and price them reasonably and they will still sell. The percentage of the available Books that are 'right' is a diminishing percentage of what's available though. I would agree with you that it is a fading business, more like an Antique business than the Book business of yore. However it's still viable and will continue to be.

You make some good points and offer a bit of hope (at least for a few years).  It's also possible there's a bit of a bounce-back... I haven't done that much with books since just before the pandemic.  Heritage gets strong prices for stuff that seems pretty mediocre to me... but they also have a million-dollar hype machine behind them, so I'm not sure their prices are reflective of the overall market.  I do sell mainly through my store, so there's that.  In the '80s and '90s Dayton had a very strong book market, with one of the nation's largest independent bookstores (now long since sold out to a chain), and over a dozen used/rare book stores (now there's only one that's mainly mail-order and another that's $1 books only).  For years Stephen King was one of the most requested authors (I'm talking collectibles, not reading copies they could get anywhere)... someone would literally walk into my shop every week or two wanting collectible King stuff.  It's now probably been several years since someone even inquired about them.  

So definitely the book shop business is all but collapsed.  Larry McMurtry owned a famous bookstore (actually a book village) and was quoted late in his life that "there are no longer buyers for what I have to sell" (paraphrased from memory).  When I started out ('80s) I had a small room of used science-fiction paperbacks and would do about $500 per week in sales.  Before I closed it out I had a huge 1000-sq. foot room filled with paperbacks and hardbacks we marked down to $1 each.  And these were quality titles... I didn't carry the multitudinous mass-market stuff you could find at every Half-Price books.  All high grade.  Toward the end we were down to doing $20 per week.  Now obviously these weren't collectibles, but it's indicative of the overall desirability of physical reading copies.  

But you are right in that rare stuff in quality jackets can still sell (maybe not locally) for now.  But a lot of books under that criteria are scarcer than most comics (even golden-age) to begin with.

[Number 6]

On 6/22/2023 at 5:57 PM, Book Guy said:

People who have walk-in shops seem to be doing less well than me and your analysis is probably spot on for those people. Having a bricks and mortar Bookstore seems hard nowadays.

I think this a key point:  if customers only have access to your book inventory by walking through your door or the handful of shows you attend you’re going to miss a lot of the interest that’s out there. 
 

Dealers who have their own websites with searchable inventory, or at the very least, sell through sites like ABE or Biblio, seem to be doing fine. Auction sites like HA and PBA Galleries seem to get strong results. 
 

It wasn’t just comics, there was a bunch of quality book material that got snatched up during the lockdowns of ‘20/21.  Books aren’t as sexy and pound for pound probably don’t get the same crazy money that comics are getting right now, but there still seems to be strong interest for now. 

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/22/2023 at 2:14 AM, Ken Aldred said:

Absolutely. Some of the best, most inventive, sophisticated stories and innovative, top-level artwork in the history of the medium.

After reading them I threw my ECs and Alan Moore comics in the trash, having witnessed quality being redefined.

You're sardonically telling me that you weren't entranced by the endless wrinkles in crotches of pants drawn by Rob Liefeld or his amazingly high-brow story plots? Philistine!

[Book Guy]

On 6/23/2023 at 8:31 AM, Number 6 said:

I think this a key point:  if customers only have access to your book inventory by walking through your door or the handful of shows you attend you’re going to miss a lot of the interest that’s out there. 
 

Dealers who have their own websites with searchable inventory, or at the very least, sell through sites like ABE or Biblio, seem to be doing fine. Auction sites like HA and PBA Galleries seem to get strong results. 
 

It wasn’t just comics, there was a bunch of quality book material that got snatched up during the lockdowns of ‘20/21.  Books aren’t as sexy and pound for pound probably don’t get the same crazy money that comics are getting right now, but there still seems to be strong interest for now. 

My best years in business were the pandemic years and this year is still above average. So things went wild in Books too. Also eBay has come of age as a site to sell books with. eBay outsells Amazon and ABE combined for me. The key in the current market (to me at least) is to be more careful about what Books you invest your time in describing, photographing etc. I'm becoming more ruthless on what I pass on-even after I've already paid for it. Unless there is some buying pressure on a Book, I don't want to carry it. Or at least it has to be unusual, scarce, rare in a jacket etc. Otherwise I don't bother to put extra effort into trying and just donate or discard it. This was not my habit in the past, or rather I was more willing to give these marginal books a chance. Also online I don't handle anything below a price of $15.00. And I'm sure that price point will continue to rise. Even at that price point I don't carry much-only items I have a long history of selling and I know will move fairly quickly. And you can't raise the price of slow books to match an arbitrary price floor. There has to be, or seem to be genuine desire for the Book at any particular price. Also, I rarely 'Overprice' deliberately just to see if there is a market for something. Lastly expensive Books punch above their weight-as should seem obvious. They pull in more money for the same amount of work. So I try to have as many of those as possible.

I was somewhat surprised about how well Stephen King still sold. I got a lot of his Books recently, sometimes in multiple copies, mostly sharp. It had been a few years since I handled a large number of his Books. Usually they trickle in one at a time, usually with reading wear etc. So I was surprised at how much the prices had risen (Pandemic!) so I experimented with the prices on these by pricing them higher than I would have considered 3 years ago but not in the nosebleed environs of the top priced copies. They sold pretty well and I was uncertain any would sell at those sort of prices. So he's still solid for me.

Another example is LONESOME DOVE. I sold 2 (maybe 3) copies of nice copies in jackets at $200 or so. It's a common Book and its time is somewhat past. None sold overnight but each took a month or two to sell but it showed there was still ample demand.

A walk in Bookstore is almost a thing of the past.

Younger people still want Books but what exactly they want is not fully formed yet. For example if they like Beat Lit, they might desire to own First Editions or conversely be satisfied with a 1972 paperback reprint of ON THE ROAD considering it to be a Vintage 'Beat Era' artifact. Time will tell.

 

[october]

On 6/23/2023 at 10:03 AM, Bookery said:

You make some good points and offer a bit of hope (at least for a few years).  It's also possible there's a bit of a bounce-back... I haven't done that much with books since just before the pandemic.  Heritage gets strong prices for stuff that seems pretty mediocre to me... but they also have a million-dollar hype machine behind them, so I'm not sure their prices are reflective of the overall market.  I do sell mainly through my store, so there's that.  In the '80s and '90s Dayton had a very strong book market, with one of the nation's largest independent bookstores (now long since sold out to a chain), and over a dozen used/rare book stores (now there's only one that's mainly mail-order and another that's $1 books only).  For years Stephen King was one of the most requested authors (I'm talking collectibles, not reading copies they could get anywhere)... someone would literally walk into my shop every week or two wanting collectible King stuff.  It's now probably been several years since someone even inquired about them.  

So definitely the book shop business is all but collapsed.  Larry McMurtry owned a famous bookstore (actually a book village) and was quoted late in his life that "there are no longer buyers for what I have to sell" (paraphrased from memory).  When I started out ('80s) I had a small room of used science-fiction paperbacks and would do about $500 per week in sales.  Before I closed it out I had a huge 1000-sq. foot room filled with paperbacks and hardbacks we marked down to $1 each.  And these were quality titles... I didn't carry the multitudinous mass-market stuff you could find at every Half-Price books.  All high grade.  Toward the end we were down to doing $20 per week.  Now obviously these weren't collectibles, but it's indicative of the overall desirability of physical reading copies.  

But you are right in that rare stuff in quality jackets can still sell (maybe not locally) for now.  But a lot of books under that criteria are scarcer than most comics (even golden-age) to begin with.

Archer City. I wanted to go for the longest time, but I think it's past the point of being worth it unfortunately.

1000 sq feet of books generating $20 a week in sales is....shocking. 

Nashville's book trade isn't robust, but McCay's turns over a massive volume of books. Their footprint includes all types of media, but at least half the square footage is still books...and it's crowded in there. Quite a site, basically the size of a two floor supermarket. 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 6/19/2023 at 8:29 AM, Stefan_W said:

This is so true. I have owned many copies of most of the SA keys and they don't really get me excited anymore. Once I hit about 50 or so I find myself selling off my PC every couple of years and starting fresh with different books. I get bored with the books I own, sell them off, pick up different books that I think are cool, and lather-rinse-repeat. 

We are all just curators of comics till the day we die.

However, since I found the secret to enteral life I won't be having that problem.

[Lazyboy]

On 6/28/2023 at 6:05 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

We are all just curators of comics till the day we die.

However, since I found the secret to enteral life I won't be having that problem.

You're going to become a tree?

[Lazyboy]

On 6/22/2023 at 6:59 AM, Dr. Balls said:

Bring on the 90’s Bad Girls movies…

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115624

[darkstar]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:24 AM, D2 said:

100% 

I went to a garage sale this weekend. There was a large neighborhood that coordinated the effort together, quite impressive.

Long story short, there was 1 house in particular, that took the opportunity to sell his Corvette collectibles. He made a separate painted sign and all…

He had tin signs, originally packaged models, posters… t-shirts. You name it.

We parked close to their house, so when we made the loop back, I got a chance to look again at how successful he came out.

From what I saw… untouched.

No interest in this poor man’s elaborate and extensive 50s/60s Corvette obsession.

It was a good market too, probably 40-50 houses all participating and a flood of cars all morning long.

 

this example only works if he failed to sell actual Corvettes and not Corvette merchandise. 

[aabruzzese]

I am reading this thread and am remininded of why I stopped collecting as early as the mid 80’s. I was big on Peter Parker spectacular Spider-Man and justice leauge. The only true regret is not snatching up the Canadian price variants way back then.  So now I am older and wiser and for my 60th birthday play to buy a complete run of Peter Parker spectacular series

I am seeing some nearly complete described as VT to NM for 800$ plus 200 shipping. 
 

Will have to decide if would prefer picking the keys instead at higher grades than a full set