Market projections...sell now or wait it out? 3 3

[AbsoluteCarnage]

On 2/26/2024 at 9:03 PM, Stefan_W said:

He isn't wrong.

When I make comic decisions that are longer term I often think along the lines of "if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, what will help my family the most in the long term after I am gone?" My wife is not a comic person and would be likely to take pennies on the dollar for someone to haul most of my collection away. To counter that, I have a lot of slabs that will do well at auction and asked a friend to help her send them in if something happens. We are not immortal and the unexpected is a part of life. 

[Nick Furious]

On 2/26/2024 at 8:56 AM, UncleAnwar said:

My general question is, with the state of the current market would it be best to sell now or wait a bit (3, 5, 10 yrs?).  I'm in no real rush to move them quickly, so I'm fine waiting if it will net me more money.  I'm also learning that I'll definitely have to break them up in chunks to get the most bang for my buck.

I would consider cashing out the 10% of books that make up 80% of the value, or the 20% that probably make up 90% of the value.  Keep the rest, and regardless of what the overall market does there will always be individual books that will pop from time to time.  I imagine comics are still in your system to some degree.  Having the other 90% to dig through will be something you enjoy for years; probably more than you would enjoy the money you get from selling them now.  Like an ongoing treasure hunt that you return to from time to time.      

Edited February 27 by Nick Furious

[D84]

On 2/26/2024 at 12:55 PM, toro said:

Start a Whatnot stream and make bags of money. 

 

 

 

 

No, start an Only Fans account. 

[Hepcat]

On 2/26/2024 at 11:35 AM, aardvark88 said:

 Youth grew up in the 'paperless office' environment or online everything with cell phones, social media and int'l online gaming so have little interest in vintage paper.

Yes, and with helicopter parents who drove them everywhere so that they never needed to walk. Including of course to schools where they were always just passed through to avoid damaging their fragile egos so they never had to learn anything like the multiplication table or the capital of France. I mean why bother? Everything's there on your cell phone anyway, right?

And buy stuff? Hey, the current generation thinks that society/the government should just give them more and more free stuff - including a college education. But then perhaps a college education should be free these days since that's what the "learning" most students acquire these days is worth.

Forgive me I'm a curmudgeon and I'm rambling again.... 

Edited February 27 by Hepcat

[1Cool]

If you have lost the joy of pretty much any collectible you should sell it and buy something you do enjoy.  Wish you would have started selling a half dozen years ago in terms of realized prices but you can’t go back.  Sell anything that will sell now and then reassess holding on to the left overs.

[rsouxlja7]

An easy way to analyze it: if you had the value of your collection in cash today - would you spend it to buy those books? If not, sell. 

Also consider opportunity cost. If you plan to put the money in stocks, real estate, etc. - you have to consider the returns you'd expect to make on those investments vs what you think the comic market might do. 

I sold half of my collection a year ago and put it in the S&P 500. It has return over 25% in that time. The stuff I held onto went down 10-20% in that same timeframe.  

[shadroch]

On 2/26/2024 at 7:03 PM, Stefan_W said:

He isn't wrong.

When I make comic decisions that are longer term I often think along the lines of "if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, what will help my family the most in the long term after I am gone?" My wife is not a comic person and would be likely to take pennies on the dollar for someone to haul most of my collection away. To counter that, I have a lot of slabs that will do well at auction and asked a friend to help her send them in if something happens. We are not immortal and the unexpected is a part of life. 

Don't ask a friend to help. 

Sit down with that friend and your wife and make a plan.  Be sure everyone is on the same page.  Then, immortalize it so there is no confusion. 

[lostboys]

I was standing in front of the "New Arrivals" rack the other day and I honestly dont understand why anyone would spend money on what is being put out these days.

#1 issues everywhere...terrible artwork...thin books...$4 cover prices

Older collectors trash the 90s era and I often wonder what they think about todays offerings.

 

That aside.

I saw a Spawn run (1 - 100) sell at auction for damn near $800 on Ebay this weekend.

$8 a book for what old school collectors call modern dreck?

 

 

Comic collecting isnt going away.

Comic production may though.

 

 

[Dick Pontoon]

I may not say this often, but I'd follow Shad's advice. If you genuinely want your family to get the most benefit from your collection in the event something unexpected happens, make a solid plan that all parties involved understand and agree to.

[LazySundayComics]

There are new comic collectors. They just aren't part of the generation or circuit that came up reading Comic Book Marketplace and stuff. I don't say that to defend them; I find the collectors I'm referencing to be largely obnoxious. I'm talking about the wealth of uninformed and obviously somewhat new to the hobby collectors who all feel the need to have a YouTube channel. And hey, I'm not down on new collectors. I basically just think if you're new and don't know the deal, you shouldn't be broadcasting your ignorance online.

But there's a community of these collectors that go to yard sales and thrift stores trying to find comics and film it and they seem endless though some are more successful than others. Even I started a channel but quickly lost interest as I knew my exploits looking for old Patsy Walkers weren't gonna interest anybody else. But the YouTube collector subculture is thriving. They will keep buying. 

[Hepcat]

On 2/26/2024 at 11:21 AM, jimjum12 said:

Auction everything off, except a few of your very favorites, and then roll the proceeds into undeveloped real estate on the outskirts of town, or into stock in the defense or health care industry, and then... fuggetaboutit.

The problem with the health care business is that there are very few barriers to entry which means there's going to be unlimited competition.

I'd suggest a railroad stock or two instead. The need to move bulk and other goods cheaply overland is not going to disappear this or even next century. Moreover the barriers to entry in this business are insurmountable. The cost of building new competing rail lines these days is way beyond reason. Therefore the very few existing players have a really cozy oligopoly indeed. My two favourites right now are CP ($86.06) and CNI ($131.34) because I really like their coast-to-coast and down to the Gulf of Mexico rail networks..

Edited February 28 by Hepcat

[Hepcat]

On 2/26/2024 at 1:46 PM, RobHW said:

Comic book collecting is dead.  Dead, I said.  Today is a buyers market.  It may never be a seller's market again. 

We are slowly swirling right down the drain.

Hey, there's nothing wrong with lower prices. I have no problem with them at all. The lower the prices, the more I can add to my collection!