Comic Art Live May 2024 3 3

[Michael Browning]

On 5/15/2024 at 5:30 PM, cstojano said:

1) Just happy to be out of the piece, it was low 5 figures so percentage wise I am not too concerned. 2) I have gains on other sales I am trying to offset with stuff I overpaid for. 

Fifteen years ago, I dropped a quarter in a Books-A-Million and looked down with the intentions of picking it back up and putting it into my pocket. I got busy talking to the cashier and forgot to pick it up and left it there and it eats at me to this very day. I cannot imagine selling a piece of art and losing even a single penny on it and being okay with that. Nothing ever offsets a loss for me.

[Will_K]

On 5/15/2024 at 5:36 PM, Michael Browning said:

Fifteen years ago, I dropped a quarter in a Books-A-Million and looked down with the intentions of picking it back up and putting it into my pocket. I got busy talking to the cashier and forgot to pick it up and left it there and it eats at me to this very day. I cannot imagine selling a piece of art and losing even a single penny on it and being okay with that. Nothing ever offsets a loss for me.

A lot of people would start a GoFundMe on account of that story.

[cstojano]

On 5/15/2024 at 2:36 PM, Michael Browning said:

Fifteen years ago, I dropped a quarter in a Books-A-Million and looked down with the intentions of picking it back up and putting it into my pocket. I got busy talking to the cashier and forgot to pick it up and left it there and it eats at me to this very day. I cannot imagine selling a piece of art and losing even a single penny on it and being okay with that. Nothing ever offsets a loss for me.

Boy do you want to feel better or worse because I can keep going with tales of woe

 

[Michael Browning]

On 5/15/2024 at 7:32 PM, cstojano said:

Boy do you want to feel better or worse because I can keep going with tales of woe

 

I'll be honest: If I kept losing money, I'd stop selling until the pieces were worth what I had in them. Or, I wouldn't pay so much. Why overpay for pieces?

[Rick2you2]

On 5/15/2024 at 9:02 PM, Michael Browning said:

I'll be honest: If I kept losing money, I'd stop selling until the pieces were worth what I had in them. Or, I wouldn't pay so much. Why overpay for pieces?

You might lose money on every piece, but at least you would make it up in volume. 

[John E.]

Fresh to market + exuberance + no comps x FOMO =

On 5/15/2024 at 8:02 PM, Michael Browning said:

Why overpay for pieces?

 

[rsonenthal]

Hmmm.  I think an argument can be made (at least for me) that I've overpaid many times. Are those pieces worth more than I paid? Yes. But, that doesn't mean I didn't overpay when I bought it. This is a hobby of one of a kind items. Comps (and friends) are super important, but I think it's unlikely that anyone who has been in this long enough hasn't overpaid for a piece. Of course, defining overpaying is a bit of term of art in this case.

I think the same goes for losing money on a piece. Unless you have either (a) unlimited resources or (b) the strength of will to pass up a piece you want, you're probably going to have to sell at some point.  And, sometimes, you take a loss. I know I have. But, I used the funds to get something else that I wanted more. Maybe I'm lucky that I can live with that.

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 5/15/2024 at 8:02 PM, Michael Browning said:

I'll be honest: If I kept losing money, I'd stop selling until the pieces were worth what I had in them. Or, I wouldn't pay so much. Why overpay for pieces?

 

On 5/15/2024 at 4:36 PM, Michael Browning said:

Fifteen years ago, I dropped a quarter in a Books-A-Million and looked down with the intentions of picking it back up and putting it into my pocket. I got busy talking to the cashier and forgot to pick it up and left it there and it eats at me to this very day. I cannot imagine selling a piece of art and losing even a single penny on it and being okay with that. Nothing ever offsets a loss for me.

ah, the sunk cost fallacy.  That's not rational you know?  If your collection of Team America's pages peaked in 2020 due to a variety of external factors over which you have no control and will have no control in the future but it is clear that the longer you hold them, the more of your original investment you stand to lose then all things being equal- if you need to pair down your collection to pay for something else, or just cash out- the logical choice is to sell the pieces that stand a greater change of losing more money FIRST. 

unfortunately, humans are not rational. But in a scenario where: You need $400:  Option A is to sell a page where you have $500 cost basis and a 50% chance it will drop to $0 over time, but you can sell it right now for $400. Option B is to sell a page with a $250 cost basis, a 50% chance it will go up value over time, and you can sell it right now for $400. which do you sell? The logical choice is A.  If that feels wrong, and to many it does, that is the basis of the disposition effect

[Michael Browning]

On 5/16/2024 at 3:27 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

 

ah, the sunk cost fallacy.  That's not rational you know?  If your collection of Team America's pages peaked in 2020 due to a variety of external factors over which you have no control and will have no control in the future but it is clear that the longer you hold them, the more of your original investment you stand to lose then all things being equal- if you need to pair down your collection to pay for something else, or just cash out- the logical choice is to sell the pieces that stand a greater change of losing more money FIRST. 

unfortunately, humans are not rational. But in a scenario where: You need $400:  Option A is to sell a page where you have $500 cost basis and a 50% chance it will drop to $0 over time, but you can sell it right now for $400. Option B is to sell a page with a $250 cost basis, a 50% chance it will go up value over time, and you can sell it right now for $400. which do you sell? The logical choice is A.  If that feels wrong, and to many it does, that is the basis of the disposition effect

Team America pages will ALWAYS go up in value. Just like U.S. 1 pages. ;)

I guess I was one who saw that the 2020 boom wouldn't last forever and I was cautious and didn't buy a lot of expensive stuff during that period. At least I didn't buy at those prices. I tend to view every single piece as an investment because I know one day it will all get sold -- whether I sell it or my family sells it when I'm gone, I don't ever want to lose a penny.

I will say that I have never, in my almost 30 years of collecting, seen art drop drastically in value. It might not go up exponentially, but it goes up some, at least. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I don't think it will in my lifetime.

I don't have unlimited resources so I have had to calm down on buying big items last year and this year. It's why I didn't buy the Team America 1 cover and the Ghost Rider 70 cover. I love, love, love those pieces, but I couldn't see a near future in which -- if I had to -- I could recoup $25,000 each on those, so I backed away on the TA cover and didn't even bid on the GR. As much as I wanted them (and I could have raised the cash pretty quickly), I also knew that I would have to wait YEARS for that investment to grow into what I paid.

And I totally get that humans aren't rational, especially comic art-collecting humans. The OA-collecting heart wants what the OA-collecting heart wants. It just hurts my heart to ever sell anything at a loss. I sold a Hulk 180 a month ago for exactly what I paid for it to fund a piece of art, but I made money on the overall larger deal and didn't lose a cent on the Hulk, so I felt okay with that. If I'd had to sell at a loss, I don't think I'd ever forget that and it would taint whatever I bought with the money, no matter how much I loved the new piece.

 

 

[Michael Browning]

On 5/15/2024 at 10:13 PM, John E. said:

Fresh to market + exuberance + no comps x FOMO =

 

The Tradd Moore art analogy, right?

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 5/16/2024 at 8:26 AM, Michael Browning said:

Team America pages will ALWAYS go up in value. Just like U.S. 1 pages. ;)

I guess I was one who saw that the 2020 boom wouldn't last forever and I was cautious and didn't buy a lot of expensive stuff during that period. At least I didn't buy at those prices. I tend to view every single piece as an investment because I know one day it will all get sold -- whether I sell it or my family sells it when I'm gone, I don't ever want to lose a penny.

I will say that I have never, in my almost 30 years of collecting, seen art drop drastically in value. It might not go up exponentially, but it goes up some, at least. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I don't think it will in my lifetime.

I don't have unlimited resources so I have had to calm down on buying big items last year and this year. It's why I didn't buy the Team America 1 cover and the Ghost Rider 70 cover. I love, love, love those pieces, but I couldn't see a near future in which -- if I had to -- I could recoup $25,000 each on those, so I backed away on the TA cover and didn't even bid on the GR. As much as I wanted them (and I could have raised the cash pretty quickly), I also knew that I would have to wait YEARS for that investment to grow into what I paid.

And I totally get that humans aren't rational, especially comic art-collecting humans. The OA-collecting heart wants what the OA-collecting heart wants. It just hurts my heart to ever sell anything at a loss. I sold a Hulk 180 a month ago for exactly what I paid for it to fund a piece of art, but I made money on the overall larger deal and didn't lose a cent on the Hulk, so I felt okay with that. If I'd had to sell at a loss, I don't think I'd ever forget that and it would taint whatever I bought with the money, no matter how much I loved the new piece.

 

 

so you lost money in real dollar terms. If you had it more than a year, with inflation you could have lost easily 20% after a few years.  Breaking even on art (or comics) is losing money. We like to overlook that stark reality, but it is reality. There are absolutely areas of art collecting that have lost money in real dollar terms. If you held onto your Pogo's strips to the bitter end, they are losing money when you sell, even if you break even in face value.  A $200 strip in 1995 would have to sell for $411 now to break even. If a nominal increase in value over time doesn't keep up with inflation- you are losing money.  If you sold the $200 strip for $300 in 2002- you made money.  I know it's antithetical to our lizard brain, but always cut your loses first, not last.

BTW- even though you lost money on the Hulk #181, you were wise to sell it since it's dropped 40-50% from it's peak in certain grades. So you you minimized your losses. 

Edited May 16 by MyNameIsLegion

[Michael Browning]

On 5/16/2024 at 9:54 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

so you lost money in real dollar terms. If you had it more than a year, with inflation you could have lost easily 20% after a few years.  Breaking even on art (or comics) is losing money. We like to overlook that stark reality, but it is reality. There are absolutely areas of art collecting that have lost money in real dollar terms. If you held onto your Pogo's strips to the bitter end, they are losing money when you sell, even if you break even in face value.  A $200 strip in 1995 would have to sell for $411 now to break even. If a nominal increase in value over time doesn't keep up with inflation- you are losing money.  If you sold the $200 strip for $300 in 2002- you made money.  I know it's antithetical to our lizard brain, but always cut your loses first, not last.

BTW- even though you lost money on the Hulk #181, you were wise to sell it since it's dropped 40-50% from it's peak in certain grades. So you you minimized your losses. 

I had it a month, so no loss at all. I paid $650 for it and got $650.

On comics, if I have them for more than a month, I'm sweating trying to get them sold. I like the chase more than keeping them, honestly, and every comic can be bought back (my philosophy on selling comics: This ain't the only copy).

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 5/16/2024 at 9:19 AM, Michael Browning said:

I had it a month, so no loss at all. I paid $650 for it and got $650.

On comics, if I have them for more than a month, I'm sweating trying to get them sold. I like the chase more than keeping them, honestly, and every comic can be bought back (my philosophy on selling comics: This ain't the only copy).

loss averted. I'm curious what condition the IH181 was to go for $650?

[cstojano]

On 5/15/2024 at 7:13 PM, John E. said:

Fresh to market + exuberance + no comps x FOMO =

 

This nailed it. I tend to collect weirder stuff so the "no comps" thing really applies. 

[Unstoppablejayd]

On 5/16/2024 at 10:23 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

loss averted. I'm curious what condition the IH181 was to go for $650?

I think he said 180

[Michael Browning]

Yes, it was a 180 in Fine condition. I bought it for $650 to make the bigger deal happen and then sold it for $650 to make an even bigger deal happen.

Edited May 16 by Michael Browning

[Michael Browning]

On 5/16/2024 at 10:42 AM, cstojano said:

This nailed it. I tend to collect weirder stuff so the "no comps" thing really applies. 

I have only had FOMO a couple times when I was buying Jonah Hex art and I just knew that movie was going to be an instant classic and a blockbuster and make JH art skyrocket. True story.

[Silver Surfer]

Sometimes if you don’t pay now it might be 20 years before you get another shot at it.

[Michael Browning]

On 5/16/2024 at 12:07 PM, Silver Surfer said:

Sometimes if you don’t pay now it might be 20 years before you get another shot at it.

Eh, it all comes around again eventually and there's plenty of pages from each issue. But, I do see your point.

I am okay with paying now, as long as it's paying a decent price and not some jacked-up price based on false resales.

[Shaun Hill]

I looked at a few new pieces being offered this week and thought this very thing. Couldn't convince myself to buy at the prices listed as I have a gut feeling people are buying in hopes of flipping for profit.  I don't see it, but maybe I'm being priced out of the hobby or maybe I am just getting old.  Both are likely true.