Golden Age Prices – What’s The Future?

[LearnedHand]

When I started collecting GA in the 1970s, many people were putting together their runs of Superman, Action, Detective, More Fun, etc. Book were available and prices weren’t prohibitive (except, perhaps, on the absolute keys in high grade). I have seen threads on these Boards where people chat about how much a particular book would sell for, if available, such as the Allentown copy of Detective Comics #29. People’s estimate for this book range from $125K and $300K. Considering that GA prices had flattened out in the mid/late-1980s (at mid/late-1980s prices), it’s amazing how prices have so quickly sky-rocketed.

 

I think a lot of this sky-rocketing, however, can be attributed to the opportunists in this hobby that have invented creative ways to increase the appearance of value in an effort to spark interest and growth, ultimately resulting in higher profit margins.

 

The first scheme, of which I am aware, was the marketing of all the so-called pedigree collections. The Mile High collection started to command Guide multiples. People noticed. By the mid 1990s, there were literally dozens of so-called collections being marketed as pedigrees. Granted, most don’t have the qualities of a true pedigree (collection completeness, overall grade and page quality (typically, very high), and market acceptance). Nonetheless, these collections were marketed as pedigrees, at higher-than-market prices. Eventually, this scheme ran its course and prices flattened out again, with only true so-called pedigrees breaking certain price barriers (with exceptions noted).

 

Then there was the advent of the slabbing companies. The color of the slab’s label and the numeric value on the label, if high enough, resulted in price spikes (and not just for GA). In the last 5 years or so, super high-grade has seen not growth, but hyper-inflation. With all the auction houses (GMAI, All-Star, Heritage, Hakes, etc.) and the same level of high-grade books constantly turning up for resale, however, the interest in books like Spawn #1 in CGC9.8, or Action #93 in CGC9.0 soon normalized as well.

 

As is always the case - bigger, faster, better – is what commands attention. Thus, the latest progeny is the recent trend where CGC deems certain types of tampering as permissible in its unrestored classification. This gives the appearance that nearly pristine books are more plentiful than once thought. This, of course, not only sparks interest and sales, it also increases the value of both the specific books and the overall value of GA (as the pool of books, on balance, has a higher value).

 

Anyway, my point isn’t about the creative schemes used by opportunists to constantly drive prices and growth in this hobby. With all the above as prologue, my query is, where are prices going on high-grade GA and how can the high grade GA market sustain?

 

As a basic economic reality, hyper-inflation is never sustainable (resources, at some point, are finite). Yet, people today are purchasing high grade GA run books for many thousands of dollars apiece. The majority of high-grade GA collectors probably do not earn seven figure salaries, thus, with finite resources, I’m not sure how the average person in this tier can devote $15K-$20K to each super high-grade run book and still have resources to devote to more important books. I mean, if presented with two books at $20K – a super high grade run book and a high-grade important book – does anyone think their money is better invested in the run book?

 

And, while some may argue that the bulk of the resources is coming from speculators and investors, I respectfully disagree. Any intelligent speculator or investor would do his due diligence (just like with any other investment instrument) and concentrate on putting his resources into items that offer the least amount of risk for the highest potential for return. In comic books, it’s clear that, on average, this segment is not high grade GA run books.

 

Thoughts?

[whomerjay]

When I started collecting GA in the 1970s, many people were putting together their runs of Superman, Action, Detective, More Fun, etc. Book were available and prices weren’t prohibitive (except, perhaps, on the absolute keys in high grade). I have seen threads on these Boards where people chat about how much a particular book would sell for, if available, such as the Allentown copy of Detective Comics #29. People’s estimate for this book range from $125K and $300K. Considering that GA prices had flattened out in the mid/late-1980s (at mid/late-1980s prices), it’s amazing how prices have so quickly sky-rocketed.

 

I think a lot of this sky-rocketing, however, can be attributed to the opportunists in this hobby that have invented creative ways to increase the appearance of value in an effort to spark interest and growth, ultimately resulting in higher profit margins.

 

The first scheme, of which I am aware, was the marketing of all the so-called pedigree collections. The Mile High collection started to command Guide multiples. People noticed. By the mid 1990s, there were literally dozens of so-called collections being marketed as pedigrees. Granted, most don’t have the qualities of a true pedigree (collection completeness, overall grade and page quality (typically, very high), and market acceptance). Nonetheless, these collections were marketed as pedigrees, at higher-than-market prices. Eventually, this scheme ran its course and prices flattened out again, with only true so-called pedigrees breaking certain price barriers (with exceptions noted).

 

Then there was the advent of the slabbing companies. The color of the slab’s label and the numeric value on the label, if high enough, resulted in price spikes (and not just for GA). In the last 5 years or so, super high-grade has seen not growth, but hyper-inflation. With all the auction houses (GMAI, All-Star, Heritage, Hakes, etc.) and the same level of high-grade books constantly turning up for resale, however, the interest in books like Spawn #1 in CGC9.8, or Action #93 in CGC9.0 soon normalized as well.

 

As is always the case - bigger, faster, better – is what commands attention. Thus, the latest progeny is the recent trend where CGC deems certain types of tampering as permissible in its unrestored classification. This gives the appearance that nearly pristine books are more plentiful than once thought. This, of course, not only sparks interest and sales, it also increases the value of both the specific books and the overall value of GA (as the pool of books, on balance, has a higher value).

 

Anyway, my point isn’t about the creative schemes used by opportunists to constantly drive prices and growth in this hobby. With all the above as prologue, my query is, where are prices going on high-grade GA and how can the high grade GA market sustain?

 

As a basic economic reality, hyper-inflation is never sustainable (resources, at some point, are finite). Yet, people today are purchasing high grade GA run books for many thousands of dollars apiece. The majority of high-grade GA collectors probably do not earn seven figure salaries, thus, with finite resources, I’m not sure how the average person in this tier can devote $15K-$20K to each super high-grade run book and still have resources to devote to more important books. I mean, if presented with two books at $20K – a super high grade run book and a high-grade important book – does anyone think their money is better invested in the run book?

 

And, while some may argue that the bulk of the resources is coming from speculators and investors, I respectfully disagree. Any intelligent speculator or investor would do his due diligence (just like with any other investment instrument) and concentrate on putting his resources into items that offer the least amount of risk for the highest potential for return. In comic books, it’s clear that, on average, this segment is not high grade GA run books.

 

Thoughts?

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Always looking to purchase high grade and key Goldenage books. Immediate cash paid.

 

Post Extras:

 

 

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"Always looking to purchase high grade and key Goldenage books. Immediate cash paid."

[non sequitur]

I would limit my response to mega-key items, and suggest that in fact the market for them is in fact likely composed of people with 7-figure salaries. For this reason you may wish to exclude mega-keys from the discussion, but when it comes to these 'index' books, my thinking is that there are an increasing number of wealthy people (both as a percentage of the population and in sheer numbers) who see these items as trophies. The current issue of Wine Spectator has a discussion about the psychology which underlies the collecting ethic, noting that one early theory (Freud's) was that it was a manifestation of anal-retentiveness.

 

My point is, unlike a bottle of 1947 Petrus, the comic can be enjoyed (albeit not touched) after 'consumption' which to me makes it a superior trophy. I don't have a 7-figure salary, but my thinking is that as the number of people who do grows (and [embarrassing lack of self control] seem intent on making this happen), so too will the demand for golden age keys.

 

And so, while speculators and investors are one market for these books, so to are those who simply need something to spend money on. This is why Mercedes reintroduced the Maybach for several hundreds of thousands of dollars - it is only slightly superior technologically, but rich people need their trophies.

[batman_fan]

I agree with your assessment of the state of the hobby. I have been around since 1972 so I have also seen this trend. I am also a completest so I try to buy the entire run of something. I do happen to make a good salary and still can't seem to afford to drop $10k on a book very often (like maybe once every few years if something really major becomes available). In todays market, what does $10k buy me in the golden age space? Really, not a lot anymore. I would be hard pressed to find a key Detective in that range unless I settle for a 4.0. I think the current prices will push your average person out of the space in the future unless prices drop or else people will work to buy just a few very key books.

[comicdonna]

I think that it is obvious, that prices are going to continue to rise. They don't make em any more. More and more people are getting into the hobby. People that have nice collections are going to die eventually. Their heirs may keep the books, or they will be sold. The books that are sold, will filter back into the other hobbyists, but lets face it, their are not enough of these books to go around. I guess my goal, is to collect Action Comics #1 through #30 plus keys. It's not going very well. I had to sell 3 books this year. Now, I am looking for a book, and I can't find one for a fair price.

[nearmint]

More and more people are getting into the hobby.

 

I hope this is true. But do we have any evidence that it is?

[comicdonna]

Hey nearmint. Did you see the Action Comics #40 on ebay? I put in an offer for full book value, but was rejected. That tank really adds to the cover.

[nearmint]

Hey nearmint. Did you see the Action Comics #40 on ebay? I put in an offer for full book value, but was rejected. That tank really adds to the cover.

 

I did see it, but the tan-to-off-white pages scared me away. Not to mention the triple-guide BIN on a 6.0 copy, which is very aggressive. It does present really nicely, though.

 

The seller mentions a 5.0 that sold for $1500 in November, and that sale is listed on GPA. Does anyone know anything about that sale? Who was the seller, what the page quality was, etc? That's a huge price for that book. I checked Heritage, but it didn't sell on there.

[HouseofComics.Com]

More and more people are getting into the hobby.

 

I hope this is true. But do we have any evidence that it is?

 

I don't have any hard evidence but anecdotally, I feel that the internet really makes the hobby easier and more fun. This means that people who might collect a bit might become super collectors and others who might be interested find their way into the hobby a little bit.

 

When I see people on these forums get turned on and buy their first golden age book after a lifetime of SA/BA, it reminds me that there is some vibrancy in the air.

 

A lot of Americans have a lot of spare time (look at all the television/DVD watching) and disposable income (look at some of the CGC prices). If you make it easy for them, some will get into comics or get into comics more. The internet gives one fan resource sites ala Toonopedia, community ala these boards, and a mass of available books from ebay and dealer sites ala HoC.

 

Marc

[jimjum12]

If you really think about it,there's nothing else quite like the comic book.It impacts the senses on so many different levels.They will most likely enjoy some degree of appreciation and hold some amount of fascination as long as they are around.If you ask most any back issue collector,a fairly substantial amount will admit to a desire to own at least one golden age book,and any of us who have been collecting for any amount of time know exactly what THAT means.That first one just gets the ball rolling.The better material will always find homes,if only temporarily.I personally buy books,keep them for a few years,and then sell them to get others.I may not own them all at once,but I MAY OWN THEM ALL AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER.The question that puzzles me the most is WHY do I prefer my silver age books to be in high grade but I want my golden age comics to be in mid grade?And I'm not the only collector who is like this.It's almost as if the older book is SO cool that I almost don't care if it holds value or not.I believe that as long as there are other collectors like me that their will always be some kind of market.I've chatted with some of the "newbies"on this board who are in the 20 something stage of their lives and they don't seem to be any less taken by all this than I was.And remember,we comic collectors never did exist in droves anyway,yet all this market growth happened anyway.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Norrin_Radd]

When I see people on these forums get turned on and buy their first golden age book after a lifetime of SA/BA, it reminds me that there is some vibrancy in the air.

 

I think alot of long-time collectors are turning to the GA because SA is just too easy to find. I know of several board members who have complained about how the internet has taken "the thrill of the hunt" out of collecting SA, so they are turning to GA.

[mattbird_home]

Hey nearmint. Did you see the Action Comics #40 on ebay? I put in an offer for full book value, but was rejected. That tank really adds to the cover.

 

I did see it, but the tan-to-off-white pages scared me away. Not to mention the triple-guide BIN on a 6.0 copy, which is very aggressive. It does present really nicely, though.

 

The seller mentions a 5.0 that sold for $1500 in November, and that sale is listed on GPA. Does anyone know anything about that sale? Who was the seller, what the page quality was, etc? That's a huge price for that book. I checked Heritage, but it didn't sell on there.

 

I think he's referring to the 4.0 w/ seigel and schuster sigs thhat went for $1500+ a few months back on eBay after being shillled up. Tan pages turned me right off, but either way his price is insane.

[mattbird_home]

My gut tells me that GA prices will continue to rise on G-Fine books, but VF and better gets prohibitively expensive for most collectors. I can't even think about collecting better than Fine unless I only want to get a few books a year.

 

as to 'new collectors', I have serious doubts about that. I think it's a shrinking hobby. I worry that it will barely exist in 20-30 years.

[good_deal]

Hey nearmint. Did you see the Action Comics #40 on ebay? I put in an offer for full book value, but was rejected. That tank really adds to the cover.

 

I did see it, but the tan-to-off-white pages scared me away. Not to mention the triple-guide BIN on a 6.0 copy, which is very aggressive. It does present really nicely, though.

 

The seller mentions a 5.0 that sold for $1500 in November, and that sale is listed on GPA. Does anyone know anything about that sale? Who was the seller, what the page quality was, etc? That's a huge price for that book. I checked Heritage, but it didn't sell on there.

 

I think he's referring to the 4.0 w/ seigel and schuster sigs thhat went for $1500+ a few months back on eBay after being shillled up. Tan pages turned me right off, but either way his price is insane.

 

This CGC 6.0 copy was won by the seller back in November. Old Action 40 CGC 6.0 auction

 

The price is high but not insane. Easily one of the best superman covers and tough to find. A 5.0 did sell on ebay fro $1500 in November. I remember watching both auctions, since this book is high on my want list. I think the 5.0 was signed...

[thedude]

here's my take on the subject.

 

for some time now, the super keys (Action #1, 'Tec #27, Marv Mys #1, etc.) have been priced up way too high for most average collectors like me, even low grade coverless material. anyone see the coverless slabbed CGC .5 Action Comics #1 sell on eBay a while back for over $10,000 ?

 

so it's become one of those unattainable goals, sorta like winning the lottery.

 

so then most collectors said " well, if I cant' get the first appearances, this cover looks cool, and maybe I'll get all the Flag covers, etc." they started going after books with covers that they liked, like war covers or bondage covers or whatever..

 

the recent comic cons I've been too, I've seen ridiculous prices on key COVER books, that were in poor condition,

example: I recently saw a dealer who had a Superman #14, with the top half of the front cover ripped off, and was asking $300.00, now you say well $300 bucks isn't too much, true, but for a book that is a non-key with the front cover basically decimated, I feel it is, and then I've seen other cool Cover issues in poor shape with huge prices as well, a Superman #24 with an incredible amount of foxing all throughout the book, I mean really bad, asking price $1,700. wtf also a Suspense Comics #3 (classic nazi, kkk, bondage, cover). CGC graded 3.0, for $5,000.

 

I feel that the future prices on mega keys will climb steadily and only the super rich will be able to attain them, while us other collectors will collect covers from titles that we like, I mean just look at how many collectors on these boards alone, are currently collecting the Action Comics war covers.. I'm one of them, and it's getting tougher to find the war covers in almost any condition for sale, notice I said tougher, not impossible, however, 5, 7, 10 years down the line that pool of books will dry up even more.. and the prices for war, bondage, kkk, horror, flag, patriotic covers will climb steadily as well in any condition, as for the average run covers or humor covers like, Superman #47 or so, will show little growth,...

 

whew ! sorry my post was so long...btw, anyone have any of the listed books below they want to sell me

[mattbird_home]

while I agree with alot of that, I think a 2 big drivers of prices the last 5 years will start to drop in effect. One, I think alot of investor money has been pumped into the comics market due to a poor stock market. Once stocks pick up, this money will have better places to go. Two, I think CGC and the internet have created a price bubble which will inevitably break. Collectors have been really excited by slab chasing the past few years, but I truly think it's a bit of a passing trend.

 

I do agree that the more 'affordable' books have become harder to come by and pricier; these are being snatched up by true comic collectors, who will be much less inclined to dump them if the market dips oor crashes.

[thedude]

good points matt, I agree, and one more example:

 

this Superman #14 that Metro has, listed as a VF- with the 13th page married,..asking $3,750.00 !!??,

 

http://pages.metropoliscomics.com/365/PictPage/1920626087.html

 

isn't a married page basically considered resto ? or at least NON-original, ? should this book really be this high ?

considering that an unrestored 6.5 just sold at heritage for $2,000.00, I say no,

 

now I know that using Metro's pricing is a bad example of current GA prices, but my point is basically that because it's the Patriotic Shield Cover, they feel they can ask this price even though it has the married pages.

[mattbird_home]

yeah. I have no clue how such a majorly restored book can be so high. Pass the crack pipe!

 

but then, thier $820 for a VG is relatively atttractive...

[thedude]

yeah. I have no clue how such a majorly restored book can be so high. Pass the crack pipe!

 

but then, thier $820 for a VG is relatively atttractive...

 

can't tell, they don't have a scan of that one up.

[Durden08]

I agree with most of the points thedude and mattbird have made.

 

I agree that slab chasing will probably lessen over time as slabbed books will not command such a higher price compared to their raw counterparts. The stock market may also play a role in where to invest.

 

I do think certain books (like early Actions, Timely war covers, etc) will always be in demand. I think these books will someday "transend" the hobby. In other words, non-comic book collectors may someday show interest in these books for their historical value. As these books are nearing 70 years old, antique collectors in general may take notice. Price wise, I think we'll see some steady (but not spectacular) growth. No big price increases until I've acquired all the books on my want list!