Punisher #1 CGC 9.8.....WTF??!?!?!?!?!

[SuperBird]

when the average 9.0 copy of a book is essentially worthless, I have a hard time understanding why speculators think a 9.8 copy is worth anything but a multiple of 'essentially worthless' in the long term. If you can make money selling these things to suckers RIGHT NOW, more power to you, but thinking that this is anything but a speculator bubble is insanity.

 

Both Champions #1 and Punisher #1 were hoarded by collectors to the point that NM 9.0 copies of them are essentially worthless. If you think that 'MORE' perfect copies- 9.8's- are a solid long-term investment, I have alot of MINT CONDITION 90's Star Wars toys and Beanie Babies I'd like to sell you.

[joe_collector]

I've always said that a book has to sell at good in mid-grade for it to have any hope of selling long-term in high-grade.

 

That's why I'll never make a prediction of what a Hulk 181 CGC 9.8 will sell for in 5 years. The book sells fast at any grade, so there is a ton of demand out there.

[SuperBird]

that's also a MONSTER key book, similar in significance (but not era) to Amazing Fantasy 15, which Punisher 1 and Champions 1 are not even close to. Wolverine is basically the last new super-hero to have any sustainable popularity.

 

which brings up a good point- would you rather own Punisher 1 and Champions 1 in 9.8? or Hulk 181 in 9.2? (assuming you had neither) They both cost about the same at the moment....

[joe_collector]

which brings up a good point- would you rather own Punisher 1 and Champions 1 in 9.8? or Hulk 181 in 9.2?

 

Is that even a question? Naturally a well-centered, high glass, deep color CGC 9.2 Hulk 181.

[october]

I've always said that a book has to sell well in mid-grade for it to have any hope of selling long-term in high-grade.

 

This is worth a quote as I think it's right on.

[the blob]

true, if it's not a book people care about in mid-grade, it's not going to hold up in 9.8, most likely. so, 181 holds up. GS X-Men 1, X-Men 94, maybe IM 55, HOS 92, ASM 129 maybe doesn't do a total crash (yeah yeah, i know, JC's alleged $25 NM copies in 1998..a blip in time, that's all I can say), etc. putting aside whatever guide tells us, there's a solid market for copies of those books in virtually any grade. Put them up for $9.99 to start and the bids will come in. Criminey, I sold a tape entombed GS X-Men 1 for $60!!!!

[Scheradon]

I don't know what you want to bet, but with Champions #1 being obviously harder to come by in 9.8 grade, the demand does not have to be as widespread for it to retain a higher value than the Punisher #1 in 9.8. I predict it will retain a $500 plus value and easily still get that in the marketplace in 5 years time.

 

It would literally take a wharehouse find to even have a shot at getting saturated to demand.

 

 

Yes, it would take a warehouse find to flush out high-grade examples of a 1976 comic book.

 

Of this particular book, yes. Are you implying that Champions #1 in 9.8 is common? There are only 2 in the census, with the most recent sale going for $577. In contrast, there are 30 Punisher #1 9.8s (and will be rising with each census update) with the last one going for only $421.99. Looks like it's already fallen off the $500 plus pedistal.

[joe_collector]

Of this particular book, yes. Are you implying that Champions #1 in 9.8 is common?

 

No, I am saying that it is common in high-grade. Only CGC can determine what a CGC 9.8 is, and I could care less how many of these their grading curve calculations decide to dole out.

 

Seriously man, do not follow the CGC 9.8 gravy train as a method of determing "scarcity". You'll end up losing your shirt.

 

Didn't you learn anything from all those years of "investing" in sportscards?

[Scheradon]

when the average 9.0 copy of a book is essentially worthless, I have a hard time understanding why speculators think a 9.8 copy is worth anything but a multiple of 'essentially worthless' in the long term. If you can make money selling these things to suckers RIGHT NOW, more power to you, but thinking that this is anything but a speculator bubble is insanity.

 

Both Champions #1 and Punisher #1 were hoarded by collectors to the point that NM 9.0 copies of them are essentially worthless. If you think that 'MORE' perfect copies- 9.8's- are a solid long-term investment, I have alot of MINT CONDITION 90's Star Wars toys and Beanie Babies I'd like to sell you.

 

I'm not sure why it always gets boiled down to investment and speculater talk, but some collectors just want an as close to perfect copy as they can get.

 

It's nice to have your collection increase in value, but it's not really why I buy my books. I buy them because I like having pristine copies of books from my childhood.

 

I can say this though, people will always pay some premium bump to own the "best existing" example of an item, no matter how common. Even take your 90's SW figures. If you sent them in to AFA grading and got back AFA 100s then you would have a small fortune on your hands, but if they came back AFA 80's, you won't pan out so well.

[Scheradon]

Of this particular book, yes. Are you implying that Champions #1 in 9.8 is common?

 

No, I am saying that it is common in high-grade. Only CGC can determine what a CGC 9.8 is, and I could care less how many of these their grading curve calculations decide to dole out.

 

Seriously man, do not follow the CGC 9.8 gravy train as a method of determing "scarcity". You'll end up losing your shirt.

 

Didn't you learn anything from all those years of "investing" in sportscards?

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

I think there are a couple of directions this thread is going right now:

 

The debate about which book will be worth more in 5 years: Punisher LS #1 or Champions #1.

 

The deabate on speculation and investing in comics. (in terms of making money)

 

I primarily want to focus on the first debate and leave the whole speculation/investment stuff alone.

 

So, bottom line...which cgc 9.8 book will be worth more in 5 years? Champions #1 is currently worth more per recent sales. I'm saying that will remain the same in 5 years. I believe that it will still draw $500 plus per sale through these 5 years unlike the Punisher LS #1.

 

Now, who disagrees with this and why? How do you see these two going up or down through these next 5 years?

 

Whether census numbers represent real or percieved scarcity, what do you predict the HG numbers will be in 5 years?

 

BTW: A Marvel Tarzan #1 cgc 9.8 ow/w just sold on eBay for $152.50 Who would have predicted that?

[joe_collector]

So, bottom line...which cgc 9.8 book will be worth more in 5 years?

 

Who cares? It's like asking which is a better 5-year investment, a glass of water or a glass of ice?

 

It doesn't matter, because in 5 years, they'll have both evaporated.

[Scheradon]

So, bottom line...which cgc 9.8 book will be worth more in 5 years?

 

Who cares? It's like asking which is a better 5-year investment, a glass of water or a glass of ice?

 

It doesn't matter, because in 5 years, they'll have both evaporated.

 

Ok, so why do you think that will be the case?

[joe_collector]

Ok, so why do you think that will be the case?

 

Because that's the way of the graded world - the speculation that drives this type of behavior has to end, and you cannot escape it any more than you can cheat death.

 

But you know all this, having been involved in a few "crash 'n burn" hobbies.

[Scheradon]

Ok, so why do you think that will be the case?

 

Because that's the way of the graded world - the speculation that drives this type of behavior has to end, and you cannot escape it any more than you can cheat death.

 

But you know all this, having been involved in a few "crash 'n burn" hobbies.

 

Ok, in the case of the Champions #1, there are only 2 graded 9.8s out there right now. There hasn't really been the supply available to drive any speculation. It would take someone submitting a small stack of these in pristine condition to even get this ball rolling. I'm thinking that in 5 years time there will still be 10 or less of these, thus still not flooding the market.

[joe_collector]

Ok, in the case of the Champions #1, there are only 2 graded 9.8s out there right now.

 

You're in a real mindset rut, ain't ya?

[Scheradon]

Ok, in the case of the Champions #1, there are only 2 graded 9.8s out there right now.

 

You're in a real mindset rut, ain't ya?

 

I've already stated this earlier:

 

"Whether census numbers represent real or percieved scarcity, what do you predict the HG numbers will be in 5 years?"

 

So, whether these numbers mean the book is truly HTF in HG or people have them hoarded away, the bottom line is they are not out there to be had.

 

I would still like to know which book you think will pull more coin (however much that may or may not be) in cgc 9.8 in 5 years time from now?

 

I say Champions #1. I put it out there.

[october]

Ok, in the case of the Champions #1, there are only 2 graded 9.8s out there right now.

 

You're in a real mindset rut, ain't ya?

 

I've already stated this earlier:

 

"Whether census numbers represent real or percieved scarcity, what do you predict the HG numbers will be in 5 years?"

 

So, whether these numbers mean the book is truly HTF in HG or people have them hoarded away, the bottom line is they are not out there to be had.

 

I would still like to know which book you think will pull more coin (however much that may or may not be) in cgc 9.8 in 5 years time from now?

 

I say Champions #1. I put it out there.

 

You aren't getting what he is saying. The market for either book is propped up by artificial scarcity, and as such they have a very slim chance of retaining their value. Bronze and modern 9.8s, 9.9s and 10.0s are MANUFACTURED rarities. Without the 9.8 label that Champions 1 or Punisher 1 are worth what? $30 each? Their value comes from an artificial designation and speculator interest, not from the book itself.

 

As for Champions 1 being tough in high grade, that just isn't accurate. I saw literally DOZENS of 9.4+ copies sold on eBay by Zillaf4. He probably had half a shortbox filled with pristine, uncirculated copies. Ask Norrin, he would remember too...

[the blob]

yes, but 9.4s are $2 books, now, a 9.8, that's what you put the college savings fund into!

[THE_BEYONDER]

yes, but 9.4s are $2 books, now, a 9.8, that's what you put the college savings fund into!

 

No...no....no....

 

You put all your savings into "pressable" 9.4s at $2 a pop.....and press them when it's time to cash in.

[COI]

Ok, in the case of the Champions #1, there are only 2 graded 9.8s out there right now. There hasn't really been the supply available to drive any speculation. It would take someone submitting a small stack of these in pristine condition to even get this ball rolling. I'm thinking that in 5 years time there will still be 10 or less of these, thus still not flooding the market.

 

2 years ago there were 0 copies of Daredevil #168 in 9.8. Now there are 9.

 

Maybe there will be 10 copies in 9.8 in 10 years, maybe not. Who cares? It's CHAMPIONS #1. How many people really *need* this book in 9.8? In contrast, how many people are going to be trying to get a set of Punisher 1-4 in 9.8? Just being the fact that it's the first Punisher book that wraps up neatly in a nice 4 issue set makes it more collectible. Is anyone trying to put together a run of champions in 9.8 besides a couple hardcore bronze completionists? If the book didn't have a "#1" in the top left corner and instead was part of the "Marvel Premiere" or "Marvel Feature" run, it would be worthless.