Overstreet surprises

[skybolt]

A few hours later, I was the lead bidder again, which meant that the high bidder removed his bid solely based on the revelation of what the OS value really was.

 

I would have removed my bid on that info too. I understand the whole "the guide is just a guide, and a comic's true value is whatever anyone is willing to pay for it". That being said, I want the guide to let me know what I can expect to pay for it elsewhere, because I cannot memorize the FMV of every single comic.

 

This notion of "people should pay what it's worth to them" is ridiculous. Everyone wants to pay the lowest amount they can, to get the book they want. GPA shows me that Batman #226 sells for $230 in 9.4. And #228 sells for $170 in 9.4. And those are the prices I'm willing to pay, since that's what the market has determined their value to be. I wouldn't pay $400 for them, as I know I can probably buy them for ~$200 elsewhere. However, #227 in 9.4 sells for $478. Without some kind of guide, I would scream at a dealer charging $478 for a 9.4 #227. "What do you mean? I know #226 and #228 sell for around $200!!!" But the guide lets me know that's what it's "worth". After seeing that, now I am willing to pay more for it. Not because the guide tells me to, but because the guide (should) reflects actual FMV.

 

Which makes the point that the guide should reflect reality. I think we're in agreement here.

[Rob]

OK good.

[topofthetotem]

The higher the value of books goes the pool of people with "mad money" to afford them goes down.

If prices were reflected closer to true value of a book that means the dealer would have to pay more upfront then would have to turn a profit on that book.

How many dealers you know that are happy with a 1-5% return on books and I'm not talking about major keys I'm talkin about the average books.

 

Most dealers price their items at 20% to 30% over guide anyway, and will probably never pay 100% guide for their books to begin with (probably 50% to 60%). Heck, if I decided to sell my collection really quickly, I doubt if anyone would pay me more than 70% of the FMV for the whole lot.

 

Plus, how many hidden treasures would surface if the OS values reflected reality. For instance, I'd have a much better chance of obtaining some of my grails if current owners knew how much they could get for their books. Some may only rely on the OS guide for reference as to what their collections are worth, and that would not justify selling their books.

 

Again, the brunt of my argument is not so much for SA, BA or MA books, but GA books that are 60 years old and are either selling at fractions or multiples of guide. There really is no excuse to break out the first appearance of a minor bronze age character, but not mention a classic 60 year old war cover! That being said, I would like to get the opinion of some dealers on this subject.

20-30% over guide I gotta buy from those guys.

 

lets take the example of a guide priced $500.00 GA book that has a "true" market value of $2000.00 because of demand/scaricity/potential grade/cool cover/loyal fan base whatever.

If a dealer were able to get the book for 70% of guide do you think a dealer would sell that book for $500 +20-30%?

Everytime a dealer buys a book it is business purchase they have a goal to maximize profit so paying as little as possible makes sense.

Everytime I see a book change hands it almost always has a higher price but it does reach a point to where collectors will not buy because it is too expensive.

[bluechip]

The higher the value of books goes the pool of people with "mad money" to afford them goes down.

If prices were reflected closer to true value of a book that means the dealer would have to pay more upfront then would have to turn a profit on that book.

How many dealers you know that are happy with a 1-5% return on books and I'm not talking about major keys I'm talkin about the average books.

 

 

Which edition of the price guide are you talking about?

 

The copy I have says " Price guide," not "dealer's guide"

 

(or, for that matter, "Dealers tool for buying 'wholesale'"

 

People on this board keep talking about the guide as if that's what it's for. That may be what it's used for, and certainly what it's evxolving into, but that's not what the "guide" has advertised itself as.

 

I don't know where people get the notion that they are entitled to a book of false information that is presented as accurate information so they can use it to mislead people.

 

Plenty of honest people look to sell to dealers presuming the dealer needs some form of markup, and presuming the dealer has some access to end use buyers the seller does not. That leaves plenty of room for honest markups and honest profit, especially when interest in old comics is spreading and prices are going up quickly, with people willing to pay really large sums, even for things printed recently.

 

All it requires is a dealer who is able to buy and sell sensibly. It does not require a deliberately false price listing so the dealer can tell an old lady that she needs to sell her dad's old copy of detective 27 because, while her book is in "good" (mint) conditon, dealer needs to make a profit so he;'ll buy it for half of good, say 15,000.

 

Sure, the same thing occurs in other fields. But just try telling me or anyone else that stockbrokers are entitled to a fake dow jones listing so they can buy stocks for one-.tenth of their actual value.

[ComicsAndCode]

I don't buy the guide anymore, so I'm no authority on its content, but if the poor pricing is always under the "market value" per GPA and other venues, doesn't the Overstreet guide simply protect the dealers who are looking to buy collections from folks who don't know much more than to trust Overstreet? Seems to me the Guide allows dealers to buy on the cheap (potentially) without much protection for a novice -- or even reasonably connected -- seller.

 

 

Surprised no one responed to this comment until now. The fact that most of the Overstreet advisors are dealers or have strong relationship to dealers may prove your point. They certainly have vested interest in what is published. You're talking about messing with their bread and butter.

 

My own question is how do the contributors even determine comic book prices? What statistical methodologies are used? Considering the brainpower (or lack thereof) of most of these advisors, I would say that very little research is going on, but merely gut feeling estimates.

[topofthetotem]

The higher the value of books goes the pool of people with "mad money" to afford them goes down.

If prices were reflected closer to true value of a book that means the dealer would have to pay more upfront then would have to turn a profit on that book.

How many dealers you know that are happy with a 1-5% return on books and I'm not talking about major keys I'm talkin about the average books.

 

 

Which edition of the price guide are you talking about?

 

The copy I have says " Price guide," not "dealer's guide"

 

(or, for that matter, "Dealers tool for buying 'wholesale'"

 

People on this board keep talking about the guide as if that's what it's for. That may be what it's used for, and certainly what it's evxolving into, but that's not what the "guide" has advertised itself as.

 

I don't know where people get the notion that they are entitled to a book of false information that is presented as accurate information so they can use it to mislead people.

 

Plenty of honest people look to sell to dealers presuming the dealer needs some form of markup, and presuming the dealer has some access to end use buyers the seller does not. That leaves plenty of room for honest markups and honest profit, especially when interest in old comics is spreading and prices are going up quickly, with people willing to pay really large sums, even for things printed recently.

 

All it requires is a dealer who is able to buy and sell sensibly. It does not require a deliberately false price listing so the dealer can tell an old lady that she needs to sell her dad's old copy of detective 27 because, while her book is in "good" (mint) conditon, dealer needs to make a profit so he;'ll buy it for half of good, say 15,000.

 

Sure, the same thing occurs in other fields. But just try telling me or anyone else that stockbrokers are entitled to a fake dow jones listing so they can buy stocks for one-.tenth of their actual value.

 

I'm talking about the O.V.E.R.S.T.R.E.E.T. price guide that has quite a few dealers as advisors.

 

And comparing the Dow or any other market index to the price guide is like comparing my little red wagon to a semi-trailer.

[Thegoldenage]

it's a GUIDE not the holy bible of comic pricing.

 

Well said.

[Thegoldenage]

Now can someone get us back on the topic of this thread?

[bluechip]

 

I'm talking about the O.V.E.R.S.T.R.E.E.T. price guide that has quite a few dealers as advisors.

 

And comparing the Dow or any other market index to the price guide is like comparing my little red wagon to a semi-trailer.

 

 

That would be true if the point of comparison was their relative size.

 

But that wasn't the point of comparison.

 

We were talking about whether or not it's correct to list deliberately bad information.

[topofthetotem]

 

I'm talking about the O.V.E.R.S.T.R.E.E.T. price guide that has quite a few dealers as advisors.

 

And comparing the Dow or any other market index to the price guide is like comparing my little red wagon to a semi-trailer.

 

 

That would be true if the point of comparison was their relative size.

 

But that wasn't the point of comparison.

 

We were talking about whether or not it's correct to list deliberately bad information.

I can't tell if we are agreeing that the guide pricing is very flawed.

My main point is "I think" it helps dealers to pay lower prices so having a guide with lower prices is more favorable to them.

[ComicsAndCode]

 

That would be true if the point of comparison was their relative size.

 

But that wasn't the point of comparison.

 

We were talking about whether or not it's correct to list deliberately bad information.

 

There is a direct correlation between Overstreet containing bad info and many advisors being themselves dealers (which lends itself to a conflict of interest). So, in light of that, I think we are still on topic here.

 

I think most of what is being said here is that, in some way, the comic book valuation process needs a major make-over. My suggestion: an industry-wide adoption of a software product to help gather data and perform analytics for deriving more objective, real-life prices. With a handful of intelligent, committed, skilled people who collectively possess a genuine love for comics, it can happen!

 

Thoughts anyone?

[garthgantu]

I think most of what is being said here is that, in some way, the comic book valuation process needs a major make-over. My suggestion: an industry-wide adoption of a software product to help gather data and perform analytics for deriving more objective, real-life prices. With a handful of intelligent, committed, skilled people who collectively possess a genuine love for comics, it can happen!

 

Thoughts anyone?

 

I think this is a noble but very optimistic viewpoint...more on that in a moment.

 

And to those who complain about the OS Guide's accuracy, allow me to use the standard response of the CGC sycophants on the board: "well, if you don't like it, don't use/buy it!" Of course, this advice is about as realistic as "well, if you don't like one or more of CGC's policies or affects on the market, don't patronize CGC!"

[garthgantu]

We may look back on this in ten years and say that this is the Guide that was the tipping point in GPA taking over as the most trusted and reliable pricing source in the hobby. What Overstreet has done with the entry for NA#26 is essentially throw his hands up in the air and say "I don't know!!!" Well Bob, there's a lot of books that you can't price accurately, not even with real-live auction and sales data, so perhaps you should just give it up entirely? Either that, or buy GPAnalysis,com from George and move into the 21st century, where Guide values are ACTUALLY TIED TO REAL SALES. A revolutionary concept, I am sure, but one whose time has come.

 

Not only is this to the point of being deliberately inaccurate, but someone should take a look and see whether there is an attempt at price fixing and/or market pricing suppression going on.

 

Scott: from where I sit, GPA is just as prone, perhaps more so, to undue influence and "price fixing" as the OS Guide.

 

Even if GPA limited its data to officially recorded sales of CGC books on eBay and Heritage (which would of course limit its scope considerably and leave a lot of "no sales of this book" where there ought to be prices), GPA would still be open to manipulation. As it is, it's quite easy to see how unscrupulous sellers can "game" the GPA reports, especially with respect to high-dollar books that only rarely come to market.

 

How is a dealer submitting his sales records to Overstreet any different from someone auctioning a book on ComicLink, eBay or Heritage at an inflated price, buying the book themselves at that inflated price, paying the listing fees or buyer's/seller's premium etc. and then once GPA reflects that sales price, offering the book again at that 'officially recorded' price point? I grant you, this might not be cost-effective for some books, but for others, it would clearly be a means of establishing a false bar for a given high-dollar book.

[skybolt]

Well my OS guide finally arrived yesterday, and my CGC collection went up by whole 3%, which was at least higher than last years 2% gain.

 

At least I'm looking forward to reading the market reports tonight.

[bluechip]

How is a dealer submitting his sales records to Overstreet any different from someone auctioning a book on ComicLink, eBay or Heritage at an inflated price, buying the book themselves at that inflated price

 

 

Different in a HUGE way in that reporting figures false figures with a simple lie doesn't cost money.

[Rob]

If GPA was offered in a hard copy, or even a soft copy database or Excel file, it would be dangerous. You just can't use it away from the PC. I guess they do it that way to get their subscription fee. People would download it, and cancel their subscription.

[garthgantu]

How is a dealer submitting his sales records to Overstreet any different from someone auctioning a book on ComicLink, eBay or Heritage at an inflated price, buying the book themselves at that inflated price

 

 

Different in a HUGE way in that reporting figures false figures with a simple lie doesn't cost money.

 

Good point...but we haven't even established that all dealers WANT the prices in the OS Guide to go up..?

 

For that matter, does it cost ComicLink (just to use that site as an example; not saying they would ever do this!) anything to post a book with an asking price, update the page five days later to "sale pending," update it again three days later as "sold," submit that info to GPA and then sell the book via some other venue a month later, or its own site a few months later, such that someone referencing GPA would say"well, a copy of this book in this condition was sold a few months ago for a similar price; seems like a safe bet."

 

My point being that unless you're able to confirm the sales, with both the buyer and the seller, GPA is as open to being 'gamed' as any other source of 'sales data' including the OS Guide. I'd go one step further and say that, knowing a few of the Overstreet advisors, and being familiar with many others who've been involved since the 1970s, I'd actually trust that group more than the individual, anonymous sellers whose sales records make up the GPA reports.

[garthgantu]

While still pondering this thread, I was reading some of the Market Reports in the new OS Guide, and this comment from Doug Sulipa seemed relevant:

 

"When one takes into account that the Guide prices are meant to relate values for strictly graded comics, suddenly it comes into focus that the Guide values are much more accurate than many would otherwise understand. Just walk a convention floor and you will find hundreds of examples of FN comics priced at VF prices, with the seller complaining that the books will not sell at Guide prices."

(p. 112, 2007 Overstreet Price Guide)

 

Two thoughts immediately leap to mind:

- this is totally true and on-the-mark. You didn't think those dealers at cons who hang out "50% OFF" signs 20 minutes into the show were actually losing money, did you?

 

- I wonder what % of Guide the average SA non-key Marvel or DC in VF 8.0 commands... I'm going to take a wild guess and say "about 94% of guide." That IS a total guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was true. The reality is that IF you're talking about accurately-graded, non-key books from the SA or even the GA, in conditions that don't scream "high grade" for the era in question (i.e., a VF+ Timely from 1942 is high grade to most people), the Overstreet Guide is probably a lot more accurate than we are giving it credit for.

 

I think this is partly due to the fact that we as a group can grade a lot better than the average collector, or even the average dealer.

 

Take the Daredevil #2 I bought at Wondercon... the dealer initially wanted $480 for it - which suggests that the dealer viewed it as being in VF- or thereabouts. After scrutinizing the book and discussing it with a couple of collector friends, I told the dealer I thought the book was closer to a FN+, and offered him $300 for it. He spent about 6 seconds considering this, and accepted the offer. If the book were submitted to CGC and garnered a FN+ 6.5, that would mean I paid more or less full Guide for the book. If it came back a FN/VF 7.0, I'd have gotten a somewhat better deal, but STILL would have effectively paid almost 80% of Guide. (This is all based on the '06 Guide prices, applicable at the time.)

[adams]

 

Not only is this to the point of being deliberately inaccurate, but someone should take a look and see whether there is an attempt at price fixing and/or market pricing suppression going on.

 

Many years ago, at the last meeting of the Overstreet Advisors, before anything progressed, Geppi's attorney gave a quick lecture about the attendees avoiding talking about prices of books because it could be construed as "price fixing"....and what did everyone do after that...talked about the pricing of books. Hilarious. Does anyone else remember this happening ?

[bluechip]

How is a dealer submitting his sales records to Overstreet any different from someone auctioning a book on ComicLink, eBay or Heritage at an inflated price, buying the book themselves at that inflated price

 

 

Different in a HUGE way in that reporting figures false figures with a simple lie doesn't cost money.

 

Good point...but we haven't even established that all dealers WANT the prices in the OS Guide to go up..?

 

 

I think indications are that many dealers want the prices on many items to stay lower than market. As long as you have no insurmountable problem selling a rare super key for several times guide, then you might not care if the guide is low, and you might find that having it low makes it easier for you to buy low from the unintiated.

 

Buy from the unknowing at guide, sell to the knowing at more than guide.

 

It may not be the guide's joib to prevent any and all abuses of pricing (the lack any pricing below 2.0 or above 9.2 gives room for a lot of maneuvering), but it's positively not the guide's stated purpose to give dealers a book of false prices. But the guide has now officially been so wrong for so long, giving ridiculously low prices for super famous books that by now they just have to know are not prices accordingly.

 

And that is why the guide's credibility is in real danger.