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CGC Census 08/27/2003 - another discussion of Hulk 181

Started by valiantman,

101 posts in this topic

valiantman

valiantman

Posted
Posted

Looks like the CGC Census has been updated again with the 08/27/2003 numbers.

 

That's 4 updates in the past 2 months. Good deal!

I'll post stats when I've got them compiled...

(usually takes a couple days, but it's automated, so I just sit back and wait.) grin.gif

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valiantman

valiantman

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A manual check of Incredible Hulk 181 shows...

50 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

3 new CGC 9.6s

3 new CGC 9.4s

9 new CGC 9.2s

5 new CGC 9.0s

10 new CGC 8.5s

6 new CGC 8.0s

14 others CGC 7.0 or lower

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valiantman

valiantman

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That Hulk 181 is coming out of the woodwork now that it's going for over 2K.

50 copies in 10 business days is pretty easy math... 5 copies a day for CGC.

With 250+ working days a year, look for 1,000 more CGC Hulk 181's next year...

If not, then we'll know supplies are dwindling.

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BronzeBruce13

BronzeBruce13

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893whatthe.gif893frustrated.gif see the umpteen posts in bronze on the topic. If you start another.. poor Andrew Knight will leave the forums forever... and I'd rather he stay! "Please..do it for the cap of industry"

 

BTW... a better figure/avg. would be arrived at by dividing the total number submitted by the total days CGC has been in business (not just from a high sub period)... plus we have no way to know how many are Resubs... wish we could tell.

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valiantman

valiantman

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BTW... a better figure/avg. would be arrived at by dividing the total number submitted by the total days CGC has been in business (not just from a high sub period)...

Okey dokey... 1,475 universally graded copies of Hulk 181.

Assuming CGC has been in business about 1,000 working days

(that's about right, right?)... that's about 1.5 copies a day.

But why should we assume their business today is "average"

compared to the first couple years of their company?

Haven't they increased staff and production?

Haven't CGC counts on eBay grown since 1999?

 

There were 50 copies graded 8/13 to 8/27.

34 copies graded 7/30 to 8/13.

46 copies graded 7/17 to 7/30.

Either way you count it (7/30 to 8/27) or (7/17 to 8/13), that's about 20 a week.

52 weeks a year... 1,000 copies a year.

 

Less than 1% of all Hulk 181s are CGC'd... why shouldn't more show up daily?

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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Less than 1% of all Hulk 181s are CGC'd... why shouldn't more show up daily?

 

Because then the cat is out of the bag?

 

I was wondering if you could do a timeline on the CGC 9.8 copies and their sub dates, just to make sure there's no overt pattern. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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BronzeBruce13

BronzeBruce13

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True... just pointing out that there was a wider (longer) history to draw an average submission rate from than the smaller time span you selected. It may indeed continue like this, but seems like a difficult pace to maintain to me.

 

More should/will absolutely continue to emerge. I never suggested otherwise. I though you were predicting the same rate we are seeing now... going forward. It may level out and end up being between this current level and the "since inception" average.

 

..but I know... "valiant man" will be here to report the findings.. we shall see grin.gif

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valiantman

valiantman

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I was wondering if you could do a timeline on the CGC 9.8 copies and their sub dates, just to make sure there's no overt pattern. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

I've been compiling the census since the 7/17/2003 update.

This will make my 4th compilation spanning about 6 weeks.

 

I plan to keep on keeping-on with the census compilations,

but right now I can't go back farther than 6 weeks.

Does the Standard Catalog of Comic Books have counts

for each particular grade? We might be able to compare now to then,

if that was 2 years ago... or so.

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OldGuy

OldGuy

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A manual check of Incredible Hulk 181 shows...

50 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

3 new CGC 9.6s

3 new CGC 9.4s

9 new CGC 9.2s

5 new CGC 9.0s

10 new CGC 8.5s

6 new CGC 8.0s

14 others CGC 7.0 or lower

 

What I like about this data is with this one issue we get to see just how common high-grade bronze comic books are. They may not come to market, but they are out there and when people start paying stupid money for them they will come.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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where's the trust man?... to think I accept your word about all those stashes you've seen and know about first hand...confused-smiley-013.gifconfused.gif

 

Your "acceptance level" seems to differ based on your mood and the subject matter at hand. grin.gif

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valiantman

valiantman

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What I like about this data is with this one issue we get to see just how common high-grade bronze comic books are. They may not come to market, but they are our there and when people start paying stupid money for them they will come.

I've been meaning to run comparisons of the "high-grade breakdown" for 10.0 to 8.0 for

highly submitted books versus the submissions for an entire year...

for example, the breakdown of 10.0 to 8.0 for Hulk 181 vs. all the other books in 1974,

or even try using Hulk 181 vs. 1972 to 1976.

 

I'm assuming we're mainly interested in numbers for NM or better books...

We'll have to "throw out" books below 8.0 because those didn't have a shot at NM when they were submitted anyway. I think using only 8.0 to 10.0 might be

a good way to estimate the breakdowns of 8.5 vs. 9.0 vs. 9.4 vs. 9.8, etc.

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BronzeBruce13

BronzeBruce13

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tongue.gif nahh.. generally I accept what you and others say you've seen and know about first hand. I don't accept all theories derived from said statements/expeiences if they don't make sense to me or if I have not seen the impact or results to date. You have to admit I'm open to other points of view and want to explore them, not cast them away... at least I think.
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