CGC Census 08/27/2003 - another discussion of Hulk 181

[Mushroom]

A manual check of Incredible Hulk 181 shows...

50 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

3 new CGC 9.6s

3 new CGC 9.4s

9 new CGC 9.2s

5 new CGC 9.0s

10 new CGC 8.5s

6 new CGC 8.0s

14 others CGC 7.0 or lower

 

Like this........

 

 

[BronzeBruce13]

Hey Valiant....can you do the same synopsis for ASM #129. I would be very intrigued to see the pattern for this book.

Which numbers? Total submissions over the past 6 weeks

or "new this time" grades?

 

GS XM 1

XM 94

 

 

9.0 and up would be cool if you have the time

[MMMarvel-migration]

I would really like to know what the print run is on Hulk 181. Does anyone know? I just looked at the census and it shows that 1,475 have been submitted and only 178 have recieved the coveted 9.4 and up grade. Do you think there are another 1,475 left to be submitted? With the high exposure of the 2 X-men and Hulk movies do you really think people are hanging on to their unslabbed Hulk 181s waiting for a better time to submit and sell for profit? When it is all said and done what do you think the final total of 9.4 and above copies will be? Just curious.

 

As for myself, I highly doubt the number reaches 1,000 and would even be surprised if the 178 total doubles.

[rob_react]

I would really like to know what the print run is on Hulk 181. Does anyone know? I just looked at the census and it shows that 1,475 have been submitted and only 178 have recieved the coveted 9.4 and up grade. Do you think there are another 1,475 left to be submitted?

 

. I'll field this one, yes, there are definitely more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there. There are like 50 a week on ebay.

 

The circulation statement was around 206,000.

[valiantman]

Amazing Spider-man 129...

10 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

-1 new CGC 9.4s (looks like a removal or resub graded lower)

3 new CGC 9.2s

1 new CGC 9.0s

3 new CGC 8.0s

4 others CGC 7.0 or lower

 

Giant-Size X-Men 1...

18 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

2 new CGC 9.4s

2 new CGC 9.0s

3 new CGC 8.5s

1 new CGC 8.0s

10 others CGC 7.0 or lower

 

X-Men 94...

22 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

1 new CGC 9.2s

2 new CGC 8.5s

1 new CGC 8.0s

10 others CGC 7.0 or lower

[aardvark88]

Think the census will easily reach 2,000 for Hulk #181. Popular x-over book that was heavily collected in the late 70s when Claremont X-men was the rage. As soon as it leaped up to $25 in market value everyone was searching for the triumvirate of GSX 1, XM 94, Hulk 181.

[MMMarvel-migration]

I would really like to know what the print run is on Hulk 181. Does anyone know? I just looked at the census and it shows that 1,475 have been submitted and only 178 have recieved the coveted 9.4 and up grade. Do you think there are another 1,475 left to be submitted?

 

. I'll field this one, yes, there are definitely more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there. There are like 50 a week on ebay.

 

The circulation statement was around 206,000.

 

I agree there are a lot more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there, but I don't think there are a lot more 9.4 and up out there. Definitely not thousands or even hundreds of 9.4s waiting to be CGC'd. Now would be the prime time for anyone to have their 181 graded for sell with all the movie exposure. We are definitely at the peak submission rate IMHO.

[BronzeBruce13]

there's a few threads in bronze dealing with this subject... check them out.

[Mushroom]

Amazing Spider-man 129...

10 new Universal submissions between 08/13/2003 and 08/27/2003.

-1 new CGC 9.4s (looks like a removal or resub graded lower)

3 new CGC 9.2s

1 new CGC 9.0s

3 new CGC 8.0s

4 others CGC 7.0 or lower

 

That resub??? would have cost somebody some money.

 

Given the hype around this book at present, that doesn't seem a lot of submissions.

[OldGuy]

I don't think there are a lot more 9.4 and up out there. Definitely not thousands or even hundreds of 9.4s waiting to be CGC'd. Now would be the prime time for anyone to have their 181 graded for sell with all the movie exposure. We are definitely at the peak submission rate IMHO.

 

Do you really think that just because someone has a HG copy that they'll get it graded and sell it? I think there are plenty of collectors out there that have high grade unslabed copies with no intention of grading or selling them. Of course this is only my opinion, I could be wrong, but I do personally know of 2 HG copies that aren't going to CGC because the owners don't want to sell. Maybe those are the only two......

[MMMarvel-migration]

there's a few threads in bronze dealing with this subject... check them out.

 

I have looked through most of them. I don't remember anyone giving estimates on how many Hulk 181s in 9.4 and up are out there. Just generic comments like there are tons of them out there. I am just trying to pin down some of the experts to have them give an estimate if they dare. I mean if we are going to speculate lets have some numbers.

[BronzeBruce13]

Oh lord.. you have no idea what's going to happen to you now if you continue with this. Joe and others have probably left you alone because they've all said the same thing they would say to you... 10X to me. We've batted this around so much... and I "think" we are all tired of the topic quite honestly.

 

The short answer is most feel that there are "plenty" in 9.4 and lower yet to come and I can't disagree with that. I used to think differently, but the census numbers have indicated otherwise and my views have changed. Other discussions involved possible/known stashes and the potential grades they may receive should they come out of hiding... and we can't tell anyway until when/if it happens. I've questioned future supply in higher grades (9.6/9.8)... and we can't tell anyway until when/if it happens.

 

Really, most of what your looking for is in those threads... and we've already scared away one cool board member (Andrew Knight) because we can't find another book to talk about.

 

If you want my answer on 9.4 and below... for the short run, maybe 2-3 years... I'd imagine it will keep close (either way) to the avg. pace its been on. I don't see a drastic drop, nor a drastic increase... we'll see.

 

Where are the "Defender " #10's above 9.4?... anyone?

Where are the "Marvel Team Up " #1's above 9.4?... anyone?

Where are the "Werewolf by Night" #32's above 9.4?... anyone?

Any other HTF book above 9.4 to talk about?

 

 

 

 

 

[joe_collector]

I agree there are a lot more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there, but I don't think there are a lot more 9.4 and up out there.

 

Me neither, as there is an ABSOLUTE TON of 9.4 or higher copies out there.

 

What newbies tend to miss is that Hulk 181 was recognized soon after GS X-Men hit the stands. First app's weren't that popular back then, but even so, it rose to $25 (an unheard of amount for a then-Modern comic) and after the first-app blitz came, it took off.

 

So Hulk 181 copies didn't languish in the back issue bins, collectors took one look at the dealer/Mile High ads and knew Hulk 181 was a valuable comic (and kept better care of it, while looking for others) and therefore this book had the lowest attrition rate of any Bronze comic in existence.

 

At the end of the day, Hulk 181 shares the distinction of being both the most popular/expensive Bronze book of the era, and the most common pre-76 Key in high-grade.

 

 

[BronzeBruce13]

Maybe we can make a post about this in Bronze...

 

Considering #1's in particular were speculated on, and 1st appearances too. What explanation is there for other Bronze Keys that just seem to be impossible to find above 9.4... but should be available in droves considering the age printed and amount bought (speculation)?

 

Here's just a few examples (mentioned in prior post)... and lets not forget the DC's.

If these were bought up in multiples too, why haven't they surfaced? I don't have better than 9.4 on these 3 and have been looking hard a long time.

 

I had a shot at a WW32 9.6 but it was miswrapped and looked between 9.4 and 9.6, However, there's twice as many TOD 10's which were printed earlier and must have been just as much under the radar. I saw the recent Defenders 10 9.6 (key only because of the cover really), but it did not cut it, but that's the only one I remember seeing.. (besides the 9.8 which I think was angled as well?)...still not many overall? Marvel Team Up #1 where is it? a #1..with Spidey?.. should have been bought up as much as any other #1. I know there's (2) 9.8's and (3) 9'6's.. but shouldn't there be more? The Black cover explanation can't be everything otherwise there'd be a ton of 9.4's at least (15)... not many considering polularity, demand and sales prices realized for 9.4's

 

What's up with this?

 

[joe_collector]

Okay, here's the deal:

 

Dracula 10 vs. Werewolf 32:

 

Dracula was a relatively high-selling book early on, while WBN was never one to set the sales charts on fire, especially the later issues. Even when the horror era came to an end, collectors kept their 1-10 issues (old habit) and (as many dealers like to mention) used the others to light their fireplace. If Blade had appeared in TOD 11, 12, 13 or higher, I guarantee there would be less high-grade on the market.

 

I honestly believe there are more WBN 32's lurking out there, but the demand for CGC 9.2 and below doesn't warrant the risk in many cases.

 

Marvel Team-Up #1:

 

This was a joke book for most of the 70's and got little respect from dealers or collectors. It was not that speculated on, as Amazing Spidey was THE book for collectors, and MTU was seen as the ugly step-sister. As such, most of the extra copies were not well taken care of, and with a black cover, that spells death for 9.4 and above. Same story with Hero for Hire 1.

 

Defenders 10:

 

The age of this book is killer, as this 20-center requires the big investment at CGC, compared to some of the Moderns. Defenders was a big seller in the 70's, this comic hits the "first 10 issues" mentality, and I know there are lots of copies out there (I have a couple of NM or higher copies myself). It's also not a well-known "key issue" (broken out relatively recent) and many Defenders sellers are surprised at the collector interest.

 

If there was one main factor in the CGC Bronze mix, it would be between the 1975 and newer comics (Modern) and the pre-1975 ones ($$$ and long wait times for grading). I love that era and would easily send in some of my NM 20-centers if the rates were on-par with the Modern rates for 1975 comics.

[MMMarvel-migration]

I agree there are a lot more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there, but I don't think there are a lot more 9.4 and up out there.

 

Me neither, as there is an ABSOLUTE TON of 9.4 or higher copies out there.

 

What newbies tend to miss is that Hulk 181 was recognized soon after GS X-Men hit the stands. First app's weren't that popular back then, but even so, it rose to $25 (an unheard of amount for a then-Modern comic) and after the first-app blitz came, it took off.

 

So Hulk 181 copies didn't languish in the back issue bins, collectors took one look at the dealer/Mile High ads and knew Hulk 181 was a valuable comic (and kept better care of it, while looking for others) and therefore this book had the lowest attrition rate of any Bronze comic in existence.

 

At the end of the day, Hulk 181 shares the distinction of being both the most popular/expensive Bronze book of the era, and the most common pre-76 Key in high-grade.

 

 

This is what I get for asking for specifics. Your logic makes sense and I can't argue with it. However, if a person hoarded 100s of copies you would think they would be getting a large number of them graded to cash in on the X-men and Hulk movie craze. Anyhow, does a TON of Hulk 181s 9.4 mean there is like 10k or something? Just give me a ballpark range like between 178-200,000 9.4s or something.

[jonnydouble]

The book had a total circulation of 202,592.

 

J.D.

[MMMarvel-migration]

Okay, here's the deal:

 

Dracula 10 vs. Werewolf 32:

 

Dracula was a relatively high-selling book early on, while WBN was never one to set the sales charts on fire, especially the later issues. Even when the horror era came to an end, collectors kept their 1-10 issues (old habit) and (as many dealers like to mention) used the others to light their fireplace. If Blade had appeared in TOD 11, 12, 13 or higher, I guarantee there would be less high-grade on the market.

 

I honestly believe there are more WBN 32's lurking out there, but the demand for CGC 9.2 and below doesn't warrant the risk in many cases.

 

Marvel Team-Up #1:

 

This was a joke book for most of the 70's and got little respect from dealers or collectors. It was not that speculated on, as Amazing Spidey was THE book for collectors, and MTU was seen as the ugly step-sister. As such, most of the extra copies were not well taken care of, and with a black cover, that spells death for 9.4 and above. Same story with Hero for Hire 1.

 

Defenders 10:

 

The age of this book is killer, as this 20-center requires the big investment at CGC, compared to some of the Moderns. Defenders was a big seller in the 70's, this comic hits the "first 10 issues" mentality, and I know there are lots of copies out there (I have a couple of NM or higher copies myself). It's also not a well-known "key issue" (broken out relatively recent) and many Defenders sellers are surprised at the collector interest.

 

If there was one main factor in the CGC Bronze mix, it would be between the 1975 and newer comics (Modern) and the pre-1975 ones ($$$ and long wait times for grading). I love that era and would easily send in some of my NM 20-centers if the rates were on-par with the Modern rates for 1975 comics.

 

Your logic makes a lot of sense to me. Even semi-serious collectors like me can learn something.

[valiantman]

Where are the "Defender " #10's above 9.4?... anyone?

Where are the "Marvel Team Up " #1's above 9.4?... anyone?

Where are the "Werewolf by Night" #32's above 9.4?... anyone?

 

Marvel Team-Up # 1 (1972) - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 18%

All books for 1972 - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 22%

 

Defenders # 10 - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 40%

All books for 1973 - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 22.5%

 

Werewolf By Night # 32 (1975) - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 35%

All books for 1975 - 9.4 or better (% of 8.0 to 10.0) = 23.5%

 

The 9.6's and higher are definitely sparce...

with less than a handful in 9.6 or better...

but the numbers for the 9.4's seem to be picking up the slack...

Could it just be a matter of time before the higher high-grades show up?

(Are we just sitting at a "not enough examples" point for these particular books?)

[FlyingDonut]

I agree there are a lot more than 1,475 ungraded Hulk 181s out there, but I don't think there are a lot more 9.4 and up out there.

 

Me neither, as there is an ABSOLUTE TON of 9.4 or higher copies out there.

 

What newbies tend to miss is that Hulk 181 was recognized soon after GS X-Men hit the stands. First app's weren't that popular back then, but even so, it rose to $25 (an unheard of amount for a then-Modern comic) and after the first-app blitz came, it took off.

 

So Hulk 181 copies didn't languish in the back issue bins, collectors took one look at the dealer/Mile High ads and knew Hulk 181 was a valuable comic (and kept better care of it, while looking for others) and therefore this book had the lowest attrition rate of any Bronze comic in existence.

 

At the end of the day, Hulk 181 shares the distinction of being both the most popular/expensive Bronze book of the era, and the most common pre-76 Key in high-grade.

 

 

Where are they? I deal with some of the largest dealers in the country, and they can't find any. Just wondering where these Brigadoon-esque Flying Dutchman piles and piles of Hulk 181 are.