G.A.tor

Keeping with the theme of conjecture: There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise). Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right? Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number. It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have. Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era. In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies. I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations. What about this point then: Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away? I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right? I think you answered your own question We've gotten a few old time collectors on here but by and large most older time collectors don't even know what cgc is

Keeping with the theme of conjecture: There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise). Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right? Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number. It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have. Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era. In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc) what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era... all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion... but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributions to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies our there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be... I guess I'm just one of those people who only likes to believe what he can see, or what can be reasonably extrapolated from a data pool. I don't believe the census to be gospel but I do believe it to be enough of a data pool to make a reasonable extrapolation. Based on that extrapolation I would put the number at 3000-5000 extant, with the vast majority of those being low grade and 33-50% of them also having some type of restoration. (thumbs u -J. what is reasonable about only including data from 15 years out of the 50 years the book has been in existence? And that data is restricted to folks that have chosen to pay money to have their comics graded in the past 15 years...and cgc has graded only 2 million comics out of the billions that have been printed, and the majority of those graded (more than 50%) are moderns, that are "created" collectibles and suited for and from grading...it is a flawed data pool from the get go to extrapolate from... extrapolating data is fun, but it is not accurate when it comes to comic books, because today's collector is very different from yesterday's collector...and yesterday's collector own most of the af15's

there in lies the issue... these statistics were not kept in the 60-90's... experience was all you had to go on.... it is nice to have a census, but until you have gone to hundreds of cons, both as a dealer and as a consumer, it is hard to see the "big" picture that a cgc census doesn't reveal...until you have talked with hundreds of dealers, and seen all the copies in all the diff cities and heard of all the accumulations, etc, you are only quoting, statistically, a small piece of the pie...

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc) what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era... all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion... but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributors to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies out there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate" Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable. I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration). However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point. -J. I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)... as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that... now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies... then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering... So what is the number you are calling...? Total number of unslabbed comics in market? I believe I voted for 10K as an approx. number of copies... 20K is possible....8 K is possible...who knows... my point was in response to someone (don't recall who) saying there were less than 1000 (as in only hundreds)...that to me, is unreasonable and illogical... could the number be 5000...I guess... but there are thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies out there, that much I am confident of

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate" Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable. I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration). However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point. -J. I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)... as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that... now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies... then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain. But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers. But do you mean copies owned by people who do? Then, I'd have to disagree. Then I guess you are half agreeing with me. There are not thousands of Raw copies left ungraded. I travel all around the country for shows and I don't think any national dealer would agree with that school of thought. Could there be? Sure, but my Eagles could also win the Superbowl one year. I wouldn't hold my breath on either anytime soon. Would be interesting to take a poll of all major dealers and their thoughts. I would say with near certainty there are thousands (as in more than one thousand ) of ungraded af15s out there in folks collections and with equal certainty (having also traveled the country and set up at major shows for last 10 years) would think the #1 seller of vintage comics in the world, metro , has sold near that many themselves (maybe Vincent will chime in). Heck, I see many many every show. For someone to think there are only hundreds of ungraded af15 in existence seems naive to me, based on what I've seen.... But again, I suspect we can't really ever know. Just look at major dealers walls at shows, or online inventory. They continue to be raw heavy (metro, dale Roberts, Harley Yee, Ritter, bedrock, graham crackers , etc). Sure more valuable books will get slabbed , but to think that more than 60% of all existing af15s have been slabbed doesn't pass the sight or experience or logic test (imo)

Joe V once told me that jay M of sparkle city had what must have been over 500 copies of af15 in the mid 60s (could have been less, sometimes stories do get embellished or memory fails ) even back then folks "knew". Are there 5k copies? 10k? 20k? Truthfully we will never know. No one will ever know. But does make for some fun speculation and discussion

Ok. :shrug: Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders: Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely). Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market. I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless. Not all collectors think or act with logic. My friend that has 60 copies had more. I've managed to buy some from him over the years. Many boardies will remember the 8.0 sc22 I sold years ago that went on to be pressed to a 9.0. Came from this collector. One of my 8.0 af15 (that later pressed to 8.5) came from this collector. But that was more of a favor to me that he sold. He has no desire to sell, but admittedly at current prices he doesn't buy many these days. He is drunkenly wealthy. He likes accumulating and hoarding and has for 40 years. The dealer/semi-collector in cal I've seen his box of raw af15 (he showed me and select others at sdcc a few years ago). He still buys for "retirement". There are many dealers sitting on lots of copies. And there are many collectors also sitting on lots of copies. No urban myth. Just a reality that some know about and that others can't seem to wrap their heads around. Just nature of the beast.

Would love for metro to give their persoective... I've been setting up at cons since 2006, but going to them since 1988 (first sdcc) . And in all major cons for years and years metro had 6-15 copies of af15 for sale at the start of the con. Most all raw. This has gone on for years (until recently). By cons end, they typically had sold most all copies. And this is a compliment to metro....at their prices they werent selling to resellers/dealers but to collectors. I bet they've sold hundreds and hundreds of raw af15 over the past years of which I suspect most are still in a raw state

Many, if not most, of these people who are "hoarding" have slabbed copies, not raw. Of the raw copies that are still left in the wild....how many of them are complete ? How many of them are at least in mid-grade condition ? How many of them have restoration? How many of them will ever be brought to market before they are destroyed ? Who knows ? No one knows. But I personally don't believe there's even a fraction remaining that many on here seem to believe there are. -J. My experience is just the opposite. Everyone (except 2) I know that owns more than 10 copies (at least a dozen folks , with two of them in the 50+ range)all own them raw. Two dealers I know that have 15-20 copies more than half are slabbed but At least some percentage is raw

Don't worry Cat, as you can see, I've got a few holes in my run too! I guess that's one puppy I'd better snag before you fill your "run!" That's more than 2x the most I ever had at one time

Wow

Ive sold a total of approximately 30 af15s since 2009. Mostly low grades. None of them was sold for a loss. Also they sold quickly, about less than a week after trying to sell them I've sold over 200 af15s last 10 years or so. Also never lost money on any copy but there have been periods I've bought them at a much quicker pace than I've been able to sell due to those stagnation periods. But over time always been good to me

greg called me about this book the other day. He wants to trade it...not sure price is FMv but it's a great looking book

It is also a little crazy. On the low end that is over $100K in books and on the high end it could easily be over a million. That is just stupid money to be sitting around in a box. I mean how much cash do you have to have to not care about a million dollars just sitting around? You would be better off with a money bin to swim in. At least that has security systems to protect from the Beagle Boys! trust me, a million means nothing in the financial scheme, to this individual (thumbs u That actually makes it a little more bizarre to me. I can understand hoarding them as part of a retirement portfolio, but if they mean that little investment wise, then it's just OCD. As someone who generally finds owning more than one copy of a book redundant, I've never quite understood the hoarding compulsion. its a disease....trust me....

It is also a little crazy. On the low end that is over $100K in books and on the high end it could easily be over a million. That is just stupid money to be sitting around in a box. I mean how much cash do you have to have to not care about a million dollars just sitting around? You would be better off with a money bin to swim in. At least that has security systems to protect from the Beagle Boys! trust me, a million means nothing in the financial scheme, to this individual (thumbs u

There very likely will be temp/short term price stagnation or even declination. We've seen it several times already in the past dozen years where prices of af15 across the board have fallen upto 25%+ for short periods (in 2010 I was buying 5.0 for 7500-9k that had pushed 10k the year before). In 2003 same thing. 4.0s had hit 3k then dipped to low 2s as an example. But once the market "corrects" itself it is generally a steady climb back up, and overall seems to be 2 steps forward and maybe 1 step back (or stagnation) as a general rule

You might be right... there's a fair chance it's just too early to draw the conclusion I'm trying to draw. But I can't get past the fact that a 5x price increase, (even in low grade!) over the lifetime of the CGC era hasn't increased slabbing velocity. If you're sitting on 4-5 extra mid-grade raw copies, even if you are doing ok financially, at some point it has to give you pause that you've got $100k-150k+ there (or whatever that would be the next year, or the year after). And even if you don't know that, someone who knows you have them knows that. [Although, , there's probably something to be said re tax implications for selling now vs letting them be inherited, in a lot of cases] That means SOMETHING. It may not mean what I think it means. And it may be too early yet. But if you're even remotely right about the number of copies out there, at some point we will see a very substantial increase in the rate that copies are hitting the census. what about if you are sitting on 60 copies, at least 2 or 3 are 9.0++ you know what you do, you enjoy them in their raw state with no desire to slab or sell...at least that's what one collector is doing...

action 15 is the next to "explode"...it will be , or at least should be, 5K a point in no time, once folks continue to expand (get priced out) past 7,10,13

When I put the run together 15 and 24 were tough

I'll take the Master 25. get in line mr They're serving free Coke Zero at the back of the line.

I'll take the Master 25. get in line mr