I don't have any of these books, I haven't read any of these books and I don't really care, but just from past experience on the way these things shake out, I'd label the books as follows:
MSH13 = 1st Carol Danvers
Avenging = 1st Carol Danvers as Captain Marvel
Captain Marvel 1 = nothing on the label, unless the book becomes super important, which I doubt, and people demand it be labeled "Origin Captain Marvel (Carol Danvers)"
Traditionally, release date trumps story chronology as a first appearance and the first time an existing character shows up in costume as a new superhero is the book to have. And yes, I'd consider a female Captain Marvel as much of a new superhero as say...Barry Allen Flash or Hal Jordan Green Lantern, Jason Todd as Robin or Azrael as Batman (ugh)...