Mmehdy

I am in agreement with you 100% our collections are priceless. It is however not looking just for insane deals...but also access to rare GA that never comes on the market and also rare in terms of the GA book condition wise.. I think is especially great time to focus on "white page" GA/SA quality books or pedigree books where the multiples of guide will not be overwhelming in terms of price. The price is one factor, but serious GA collectors might have the ability to fill in those holes on material which is just never available or affordable.

This crisis causes fear and frustration, regardless if you lose 250 dollars and your minimum wage job, or 1 million and you cannot perform surgery...and whose is to say what is "elective ". I might be emotionally reacting to your supposed funny post...but we have a friend from Italy that found a lump in her breast and she has been told that her surgery is "elective" at this time.. I do not find bathroom humor funny at this time. We have the right as GA collectors to sympathize no matter what income,nationality and political views are expressed here. I wish to remind you that this virus kills and creates economic ruin no matter what neighborhood you live in or how much money you have in the bank and if you are a high school dropout or a medical doctor. If you get a chance, and the video clip was posted I think in comics general, of the movie Margin Call....I highly recommend all board members watch this.....when the chairman the company John Tuld (Jeremy Irons) is talking to Sam Rodgers (Kevin Spacey) about his company coming going down...check it out on you Tube "Margin Call" 2011 Senior Partners emergency meeting to paraphrase : Sam:"you know what we are selling is worthless John: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price and This is it..THIS IS IT Folks be careful how you navigate your GA/SA comic book both buying and selling because it is a "This is It" moment in our GA collecting history.

Here is a true GA comic book collector...and this is gonna be true for everybody at some point unless the price is a bargain.. A number of GA Collectors will just stop dead in the GA comic collector's tracks. That is why if you have material which you can afford to hold a minimum of 12 months, you might want to reconsider selling that material during this crisis. The law of supply and demand must be in balance in order to have a healthy GA comic book market. I see demand slowing for both GA/SA. Tpetty good luck, stay healthy and please come back to the GA market when it is safe and sound for you family.

I called him for you. Yes. my hedge guy says the current market is a "false bottom"...whatever that means...He is sticking to his 14,500 and he adds if the market goes below 12,800 which would be below the 2008 decline that we will officially be in long term depression.He also indicated that this market sell-off was the fastest in history, exceeding even the great depression. It could happen again, even faster the next time. A long term depression would have serious GA market repercussions . Again it would be in my opinion a slower rate of decline that the stock market but we would get there, the decline would exceed 50% of prior virus value before the recovery would be on the upswing again.. In that case the weaker books would become the hardest hit., 1-ungraded restored GA will get hit the hardest 2 unrestored Low ungraded GA, especially with tape, rusty staples,and poor page quality is next. 3-Ungraded GA and CGC graded restored. 4-CGC low graded unrestored with pieces out,tape, bad staples , pages or cover not attached , and low paper quality. 5- CGC Mid grade unrestored 6 CGC high grade unrestored, Grail books, and very rare GA. If buying to make your collection better I would reverse the above and buy all you can at the bottom of this crisis. That would be the most effective way in which you could better your GA collection, there will be better deals at the top the list for collector buying with an eye getting trading material for future deals. I would have a different buying approach if I were a collector/dealer or just a comic book dealer. We are in uncharted waters in the middle of a fog....all we need is a little bit of light...and we will find the direction to get out...it is gonna happen and when we do look out.....

I do not see a "flash" crash in GA/SA market more of gradual decline of unknown time and depth. But if experts are right, and here in Calif today all homeowners were given 90 days "holiday"( with BA 30 but unlimited as crisis continued) on their mortages. This means that the time period for the beginning of the recovery is projected out for about 3 months from now not years. I don't think you will see an immediate "tank" of the GA/SA market, real estate etc. Of course if this crisis continues beyond the three months banks will increase that "holiday". Where I see the crumbing is especially on this HA/CC/CL auctions were people might have the ability to pay up and we can hope they will be flexible with those buyers and allow time payment, which means a lot potential resubmissions added to the mile high pile of persons needing to sell. GA prices are a combination of supply/demand..when we have a potential oversupply then prices will decline Also comic book stores who were on the edge of profitiablty being the most likely not to return. There are unfortunately of a number of GA/more SA collectors who lives or collections could be lost/sold whole or part to this economic/virus crisis. I do not see anything near a total collapse of the GA/SA market or a sudden 30% overnight drop in all GA/SA value in day or week. Things are gonna happen slowly and over time in this circumstance. The weakest link is the comic book store owner who has a whole host of expenses just keeping the door open. If you know a comic book store in your area, you might want to contact the owners directly and let me know1-if any GA walks in the door give a call and I will give you a 10/20% finder fee, so there is no carrying costs or risk for an already overstretched store owner. Second, you can contact the store and with great care let the owner know that you would be in the market for any GA if priced right, meaning any existing inventory especially when they just reopen or possible sale of existing stock if they do not intend to reopen.The second, would be the "circuit" comic book dealer who relies on shows, old customers etc. They might need some start up money to get back on the convention train again. I am hopeful that some of these comic con ticket prices will come down to earth, and that these conventions will get less "side show" and more actual comic book dealers and get the shows back to comics not showbiz. So, this could turn out OK..for everybody...Lower GA prices, more customer appreciation from your local store, lower new comic book cover prices, cheaper comic book cons costs and accommodations for hotels, food etc, and a tighter more focused comic book collector.

The miminun bid is 400K..however there is a 28%BP plus in Ca 10% sales tax...I could see with 500K but it over that...do you think the min bid price is unrealistic

I read Mile High comics newsletter once in while..here is the headline NEW COMIC DISTRIBUTION ENDS TO highlight chuck's points.." our world of comics profoundly changed today, perhaps forever.....all shipping of new comics had ended as we received a letter from Diamond where this temporary publishing shutdown taking place in a healthy market I would have no concerns... 87 years of... Modern comics has been in failing health for years and even if 20% of the comic books shops cannot reopen after the pandemic restrictions are lifted and (have diamond resume shipments). Both ATT(DC) and Disney(marvel) are in dangerous financial stress right now and expecting them to allocate precious resources to restoring print publishings is simply not logical. " Then he claims to have anticipated this eventuality for over a decade...etc etc etc. My thoughts: I view the world as glass of wine half full and Chuck seems to view the wine as half empty. I do not have my head in the sand and will admit that projects will be canceled, books never published and stores that will never recover and reopen. Chuck seems to think we will never come back 100%..I disagree we have a chance. If every board member would buy one GA related book per week from Bud Plant or Amazon or most importantly from a local comic book store when they reopen we can make a difference. I see a LOT of great reprint material coming especially from Marvel/Timely and DC that I was looking forward to. Hopefully postponed not canceled. If you are like me and and buy GA/SA reprint volumes and read them, then we as those collectors should be concerned. Anybody else wish to chime in on this?

I think all GA/SA collectors should test the "waters" but not just on e-bay. You might want to be aggressive and contact dealers, especially ones that mainly sell at conventions as well as have a small presence of a website or none at all. A phone call is all it is and even if your offer is rejected...you might get a phone call down the road, especially if things take longer to recover than anticipated "saying you got a deal". If an offered is presented right, I do not think it would be considered an insult...it just depends how you frame it. I would say that I am still the market and have limited funds and I am available to purchase items if you make the decision today or in the future. I would always leave the door open, especially on GA that you have been looking for a long time.

Got it..I thought so. Another thought,,how is this downturn gonna effect "Whale collectors". I remember, a very famous pulp collector told me one time...that the very rich "fly above the turbulence of life". Probably true. The one "whale" piece that is currently available does not seem to have its price effected by this crisis yet as it is still on the market with NO bidders. An incredible piece of original comic book art is coming to auction. The very first Flash Gordon Sunday. The artwork is a grail piece and great at the same time. Well, Profies thinks there is a whale out there...the minimum bid is $400,000.00 USD plus buyers premium. There is 8 days to go in the auction. We should all pay attention to see what the "whales" are doing. In better times I that grail would sell for 500k or more easily, but if goes unsold it might mean that even the "whales" taking a break. Remember, "whale" collectors tend be jack prices when they really want a piece. Should be interesting to see what happens.

I think top quality CGC graded unrestored GA with good page and staple quality will be the last element to feel the market contraction. Action 10-50 at $10 buck could not be obtained even in the very early 60's. I do not see a 99% decrease in value. I do see a very possible 50% decrease in value of unrestored low grade GA, restored GA and any GA with poor page quality, tape or rusty staples taking that type of hit. Still, everything is gonna take hit..some little and some great. Should you buy GA at a giveaway price...I don't think price should be the sole factor, but for exit strategy which at some point all of GA collectors will have to consider, price point could be a significant factor as when you exit. Bargain prices sometime backfire. I would buy the book not the price. Of course condition and rarity must play a factor in any buying decision.

I cannot get my head around FF 52 for 90K...or MSH #13 at 31K,, it just seems like madness or greed or a mimi bubble on those common marvel books. I agree AF 15/FF1 etc I can see that...not books like the Groot TTA. They would of come down no matter what when the marvel movie machine sputters.I agree with you on the more that you have paid or in to the GA/SA comic book realitive to the current market value would make you more likely to sell during this crisis. I have always warned even about GA which go for 10X guide etc..too many of them. I agree with second the theory that the less you pay, the more likely you will not sell as you have little to lose. We here on the boards are way ahead of the pack..given that I would very careful to pay any multiple of guides prices for anything unless you have to have the book, or it comes up once every 5/10 years until we have hit bottom on the GA downward ladder. I would still like to hear from anybody on Ha's still giving cash advances of GA/SA material if you consign with them, as well as the apparent rush by sellers to use that client service.

Good point...if all values crash I would rather have a GA/SA physical comic book than a stock certificate. Same with Gold Coins, and Original art. That is their advantage the same as real estate is a physical asset. We will bounce back...form how far down is the issue. Will those GA collectors who have to liquidate come roaring back into the GA/SA field. Some of the unknowns. Elsewhere on the board it appears HA.COM has been swamped with lots and cash advances such that they had to increase their line of credit with Wells Fargo. I think they believe in the long term also. You have to figure that they will advance generally 50% of the estimated value of an item. If they are still cash advancing on GA/SA Original Art thenthey must have calculated that the market will not go down more 50%. Agree?

I would like to respond to both of your informative posts. 1-Not having access to you bank safety deposit box temporary during a possibly unsafe and unhealthy period of time is a small price to pay for maximum safety. After this virus is over, the bank vault will still be there. The contents of your safety deposit box is not the banks property, if fact you might not have any money in there at all in that deposit box . If you have a bank account which they do control that is subject to federal regulations on recovery of the amount by FDIC within certain limits. The bank does not have you safety key either. This is not a deposit but a storage in the bank and not subject to confiscation or federal deposit insurance limits. During this uncertain period, I would continue to recommend both home safes as well as bank safety deposit boxes for GA collection protection. 2- Your scientific statistical response fails to consider the X-Factor. In this the X factor is REALITY. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ( who by the way is doing a great job) indicated on Fox News Sunday that we are "looking at a 10-12 week scenario" of lockdown into early June. This estimate date is very close to the dates I posted on page 7 of this thread. Good or bad, real or phony we are gonna be locked down and the economy is gonna be shut down. 3-You state in item #14 "reasonable estimates....from .005 to 1%...In 2018 the population was 327.2 million people. 1% is 3.2 million deaths and half of that is 1.6 that is a lot people lost based upon numbers. 4-There is an emotional toll on everyone, not just the individuals who get the virus, the family members who have to pray, the friends etc. This is very real also and not reflected in cold statistics which will impact full recovery as well the GA/SA comic book market. 5- I and every board member thank you for putting some statistical reality in this crisis. However, those numbers do not take into account nor can be relied upon if a mutation or change of this virus occurs, the potential of social unrest which would create a increase of spread and increased emotional distress caused by economic depression,. We have a HUMAN toll caused this virus, not reflected in statistics and that is our X factor. WE can overcome this virus by acting together as a community to help one and another. Those friends of yours or family who were living paycheck to paycheck and are now out of work need your help. Take them in, feed them or give them aid. Fellow GA/SA collectors who know somebody who is Alone, Old, and Sacred..be there for them as a voice of support, you can shop for them, or contribute or donate which we did, to the food bank of unnecessary and unwanted food, clothes, and other supplies NOW. That was our first home project and I cannot tell you how good it felt to drop it off and feel you are helping in our fight. The government will even give you a tax deduction on a charitable contribution for those of you who are fiscally conservative for me it is a non-issue. It is the little things that count. When you are at the store..look at the older folks there...I did and notice one thing...they are scared whether this crisis real or unreal or overblown. I am doing not talking and I expect you to the do the same. I was at costco yesterday and it was a madhouse and people seemed on edge.I was walking my basket to my SUV when a older lady was using the costco scooter with a basket for handicapped people. Her sliding suv door was open and she struggling to put items in. why nobody was helping her was beyond me, I looked around and everybody was in there own world..looking at the phone or looking stressed. I offered to help her and she had some heavy things like water etc. She seems very grateful as I unloaded her basket into her car. When I left, I told everything is going to be ok. I cannot tell the look of relief and thank in her eyes. Get out of your own world and do something to make this a better world that should be all of our goals today and everyday. Do not forget, we as GA/SA collectors believe 100% in Truth, Justice and the American way. Now let's do it

Good luck and beat this darn thing...

Any predictions on price?

Great stuff, thank you very much, you are the highlight of SA thread

That is because that "clown" has no GA/SA great stuff to read......be safe and use caution.

Outstanding reply Cat. I will second the motion for HA especially followed by CC/CL to REDUCE BUYER FEES OR FEES CHARGED TO SELLERS to avoid a possible unfavorable outcome at auction. They still need to make money, I am in support but they hopefully can do a fair adjustment through this crisis period. It just makes good GA community sense. I tend to agree with you that the effects of this pandemic will be with us a very long time, however the worst will be over sooner rather than later. Let us not forget after being hunkered down, how many people want get out, get a shake and burger and enjoy the ocean or parks. Next to China's BS, however cat, you can watch MSNBC or Fox and get two different stories. Each has its own Agenda. they choose WHAT medical people to put on to spin whatever they want, I can remember some this guys calling President Trump a germ-fob etc...and now he is not doing enough...just showbiz..thats it. I would say BBC would probably be the middle of the road out there, but its politics as usual with some of the big media companies. I just want fair and honest reporting and let the PEOPLE decide who is the next president. I do disagree on the long term effects which the stock market will have on our GA market. Possible "good deals" will be made on those going back up the ladder. That mean getting cash, and that could many collections or partial collections hitting the market at the same time..especially SA material. Comic Book Conventions are gonna take a bit hit. I know a number of our comic book movies are being postponed, but how about comic book shops and getting those new books out, we could see a glut of new material coming on the market when people have spend a lot money just getting thru this crisis. I would say to every GA member try to purchase some new material or hardcover GA reprints during this crisis. One that I recently purchased is Marvel Masters of Suspense Vol 2 which is Steve Ditko as his very science fiction best.. just released ..great read, great reproduction and 10/10.

The number one issue that GA board members think about is the timeline or when will this pandemic be over. We know once there is an end in sight that things will get better for GA collectors and the GA/SA comic book market. I have both good and bad news depending upon your expectations as to when things will get back to normal and the only thing to really worry about is whether you are gonna get outbid on Ha. or CC by some crazy fool on your grail or a book you have been looking for over 10 years....ahhhh those were the good old days. I would like to tell you my best guess based upon several friends who work on the frontlines on the defenses of this illness for the federal government in security, research, and front line combat nationwide as well as private in the technical research area here in San Diego. These sources are not the media who might a stake either political or for good ratings...The media are all about the ratings now and have always been. There is no exact answer, only a highly educated prediction. 1- "When we hit the peak of this pandemic" ANSWER- Different locations will hit the peak inflection at different times. Major congested cities such a NY will be first. 2- Do you have any idea on a timeline when the peak will hit.. and we will turn the corner....best guess ANSWER- Contingent upon 1- heard immunity( still in issue whether you can get this bug more than once, especially if it mutates),2- tight containment(total US Lockdown a minimum of 21 days-NOT 14), 3-NO civil unrest( most important which would negate containment and increase spread), and 4-a stable state and federal government financially May 15,2020 So as long we don't panic, obey the law, the Feds have enough money and you cannot get this thing again the above date is real good timeline . 3- What do you estimate to be the return time when we can go out and about like we used to be. ANSWER-this will happen in stages not all at once depending upon the area in which you live. June 1-15 2020 Lockdowns will be modified not eliminated. June 15-30 resumption of a majority of activity depending upon the 4 factors above. 4-Will this virus come back stronger during the winter if it shuts down in the summer? Answer: Mixed responses, some depending upon how many of us get this virus and are immune after getting it, others wait and see. No real good answer here. So the possible peak of the GA/SA price decline could be May 15,2020 and even thru June 15-30. After that date normal market conditions can begin too reappear. The jist of this is it is NOT GOING TO BE THE END OF THE WORLD, THE END OF GA/SA COMIC BOOK COLLECTING. Make GA/SA buying decisions based upon reason and research. Once a year has passed this crisis we are gonna say we were scared but it was not as bad.as it was made out to be Yes, this timeline is contingent upon those 4 major factors above, but at least we might be able to see beyond the fog now.

I know a number of you might feel there is a direct correlation between the 32% recent decrease of value in the stock market value and the price of GA comics.. We are tortoise and they are the hare. The good news is that if this recovery comes back fast, we might not seen a such a immediate direct decrease in value any where near that level. Ok, the Stock Market is probably gonna go down 50% at the height of this crisis. It was greater in 2008 at 56% plus. Even if it does,there is a tenancy to come back very quickly and in that time gap..maybe GA goes down only 25%. If most of us can afford to hold out...that would be just great as less material and sales=less impact on GPA. and the overall GA/SA market. I think we need to pull together here and not let panic dictate our actions, If one of our GA board members needs to sell a large portion of his collection, try to do it privately and it appears there are a lot board members still in the hunt. If you are a buyer...I think waiting is gonna pay until we see where we are going adn how long it is goona take to recover and get back to where we were. Let's take a book for example like Cap#3...this is a "hot" book...there is a lot interesting price options...It is one I would put on my "radar" if you are a buyer. How much over guide in the middle or this crisis....that is the question...it is gonna very interesting to see if quality material like keeps being in such high demand to command multiple times guide price. . It also a tough decision in an auction situation. I would set price and not go over it, and do not forget buyers fees, sales tax and shipping if you cannot pick it up.

It is in China's best interest to have a weak America in a long term business strategy `and China thinks long term. This 90% statistic I do not trust it, I do not trust anything that China says especially since they claimed that we brought the Virus to them via US Military. They are competitors and want to be #1. But Lou, they underestimate one thing-the american people just as the japan did on December 7, 1941...We are gonna beat this thing and come out super strong.. I talked to my real estate friend and indicated that they estimate a minimum of 35% sales decline for 2020 year as well as a decline in prices in the market. If that is ported over to GA/SA we should see a 1/3 sales decline despite lower prices. This decline is gonna occur gradual not in a crash mode I believe.

California on lockdown-40 million including me. Based upon what I have learned thru sources it will be min 60 days to 120 days. All comic book shops are gonna be closed. I know a lot you board members don't go, but I do once in while. Will they back in business again-who knows how many are gonna fold. Where does that leave us- we are being proactive here in CALI, however if projections from the governor are accurate then 25 million people are gonna get sick-AT HE SAME TIME. Several board members or other senior GA collectors could leave us. We need a miracle. I saw panic on the streets tonight with grocery stores parking lots filled. Aggressive drivers too. If your state is behind us...this is coming. Here is some advice on protecting you GA collection-get a safe now before your state shuts down too. I had the advantage 30 years ago to be one the first collectors who used bank safe deposit boxes. If you have one, use it NOW or if not get one. If you have items coming up for auction I would seriously consider withdrawing them or face the potential for pennies on the dollar if you can to hang on through this extremely difficult time. We are about to enter the eye of the storm, we are gonna win, we might take some hits, but we are gonna WIN..and we GA collectors will come out stronger, smarter, and together.

It is a grail...fantastic

I think that is the X factor here, for example we have a housing shortage in California which makes the prices of homes very expensive. There could be a collector who has been waiting and waiting for the opportunity to get into a discounted market. It is not just that prices are going to be adjusted down during this crisis, it is the competition and opportunity from other investments which will give a more immediate or life changing priority that will compound this price correction in the market of GA/SA. I agree 100% that SA marvels which are in greater supply should be sold First, then GA if necessary. You have a much greater chance either to get them cheaper once this virus has cleared the planet as well as more being available that is going on the market.In Fact, if you can...trade up and sell SA into GA especially when every collector finally realizes that we are in a GA/SA market correction you have a opportunity to potentially trading up.. A minor point would be that possible the GA collector might be a greater age than the SA collector and be more financially stable and less likely to dump his or her collection and lived thru more crisis . The GA collector also might have a overall longer time as a collector..with a greater emotional commitment to our hobby as well as being in our great hobby much longer. I like SA books don't get wrong..FF5, ASM1 etc.., however it is possible also that more speculators have purchased SA tied to all the recent marvel hit movies that have come out...which would mean more fast dumping once the widget goes down in value and more speculation which has increased the possibility of bubble value in the SA market. We cannot put our heads in the sand. For an unknown period of time we are going where no collector has ever gone before, the single most important thing I can advise all board members is as follows: 1-Inventory your collection NOW and break it down into never sell, would not like to sell, can sell, and duplicates or stuff you are disinterested in. This action should be taken sooner rather than later regardless of whether you need the funds for now or in the future. 2 Take the duplicates and can sell and disinterested items and A-trade them for material you want ASAP B-Sell them ASAP and keep the money separate and buy in the later stages of this crisis for pennies on the dollar-E-Bay etc C-Consign them at a very attractive price to a buy it now organization so you do not have to wait for the next auction which might not happen or be in log jam against better material D-consign to a auction house and take your chances because of the time lag. E-Keep the $ for a rainy day, or buy more material that you consider to be never sell if you do not need the money for 12/18 months and have the knowledge that if you buy today that is will go down so you must have holding power for 12/18 months. 3-On the"would not like to sell material"..hold out for a better price, use caution and possible consignment at a fair and reasonable price given the crisis but be realistic...we are going into a down cycle where there could be possible civil unrest, Temporary stock market closures, and bank holidays. I just got a email from chase stating there are closing 20% of their branches as well as limiting hours they open. You need to factor that in on your "need" sell decisions for you and your family. Otherwise trade up to the "never sell material" 4-On the never will sell material, HOLD IT..as long as you have the power to say, I can last 12/18 months thru crisis. If not, make this material the last to go and hold out for as much as you can get. Any other suggestions on how to navigate this crisis would be appreciated.....

For now, they certainly do, I am more concerned about 2/3 weeks from now when we are on shutdown. We should all watch those auctions, there might be some good buys..but again take a chance. If you felt you were priced out of a book...you might want to reconsider that attitude and go for the book of your dreams. one way if they have the book you make a offer on say Ha,CL or CC. Low ball say 10 at a time, if one bites on the offer..go for it. The other way to contact super dealers who post on the board like Bedrock and Gator...let them you if they come across someone who "has too" sell what you would be willing to pay. You can make up your own want list probably send it to the top 5 dealers and auction houses. No loss in trying. Say you want Cap 1 and the condition you want it in current market is 80K....well contact them and let know 40K cash if one comes up or they know somebody who has one...cash is and will always be king. Unusual times calls for nontraditional buying methods....again no hurt in trying and I doubt this will pandemic will occur again in such an intrusive way on our lifestyles , the German chancellor Angela Merkel said today " The coronavirus pandemic is the greatest threat to Germany since WW II "..and she is no nonsense and tough Lady. Remember back to May 1945...after the USSR/USA/Brits destroyed the county. You need to adapt a buying strategy and stick to it.