Peter G

How is the condition on the Fantasy 15 ? Clearly that is the money book that made the purchase expensive.

That is an awesome pic !!!!!! Thanks for sharing that

I remember Collectors Comics in Wantagh They sold OA in the 80s which was unusual. Picked up covers for like $50 a pop at the time.

This photo makes the thread. I don't know why he's so determined to chose between a Cap #1 and Marvel Comics #1, when he could just grab those Boy Commandos instead. Boy Commandos is more fun than Marvel 1 and it has Kirby art. Cap 1 would probably be the first he grabbed with the BC underneath. Fantastic photo, but just watching him lift that legendary comic (don't bend that spine!) and touch it with his bare hands sends my comic-collecting spidey-sense off the charts! Didn't they protect comics back then? Or was condition not the be-all and end-all for collectors like it is today? I highly doubt "condition" mattered much to most people - especially children.

Actually, the Golden Age Human Torch is at the heart of the Vision's origin. When I was reading new comics, John Byrne featured him in West Coast Avengers and Namor the Sub-Mariner, and John Ostrander used him in Heroes for Hire. He still gets mention anytime anyone says "Invaders", and apparently he's rumored to be in the SHIELD tv show. No, he's not Cap, but you're entirely too dismissive of Marvel 1's place in history. Yes HT is at the heart of Visions origin but it is too "in the weeds" to matter much

Oh boy that'll do it. Thanks for posting! Reminds me of the Blind Justice arc from the early 90s

Great analysis My admittedly limited contribution is that any analysis of comic OA must also account for the effects of inflation and preserving "wealth" with comic OA as a hedge (like gold and silver). Blue chip pieces like Swamp Thing 1 cover (auction is later today, so price to be determined) will always seriously outperform a Man Thing cover which is derivative and less of an inflation hedge especially if liquidity in the OA market becomes an issue, which it probably will at some point. Buy the best of the best . . . always again my that playing "moneyball" only works in a bull market Why would you compare Swamp Thing 1 cover to a Fear Cover?? Its like saying you should just get the Action 1 on HA, dont worry about anything else... I dont always spend 140K+ on OA but when I do its on multiple pieces.. Its nice if you can just own 3 piece all of which are the height of art good taste; but remember there is no common theme as to what is good taste, some people die for modern art others for golden age etc....I have ZERO and I mean 0 interest in owning a Ditko piece or any of that early Kirby work. Shock Horror!...I buy what I like at a price that I can afford and then it goes on my wall for me to enjoy... I thought we were talking about prices and these are 2 "similar comps". No Man thing is a poor mans swamp thing in my mind. You can disagree. That's ok. Vodous "moneyball" way of playing the oa market will catch up in the long run when the music eventually stops But as chuck prince says, when the music is playing, you gotta get up and dance

Good "investment" is highly subjective. (One man's present bank-cd-crushing double in 10 yrs is another's utter failure to beat his micro cap managing peers!) For serious students of the subject there is further a material difference between speculation and investment. Probably good enough to use the hobby familiar terms flipper vs. keeper. But getting back to the subjective, for some of us a double in ten years, even five years is such a yawner, the piece has to be a keeper because there would be no rational financial excuse to hold such dead inventory for so long for so little return. The only valid hobby reason (outside of "I love it!") would be strategic in the sense that what you didn't buy went up less (or even down) vs. what you did buy (that you didn't "love"). This gives you leverage to move into the stuff you prefer later, for less. Like swapping mainstream superhero art (Byrne X-Men?) out now for Warren (flopping the podcast example). You'd get what, 5:1, 10:1 (maybe??) Warren:ByrneXMen today vs. ten, fifteen years ago? So that's one way it can work for a collector first (and "investor" second) that the spreadsheet guys (Wall St. art funds) would have a lot of difficulty getting to, primarily because the payoff is...more art (that you really always wanted) not ROI $$ (though there would still be capital gains to be paid when that Byrne/et al was sold). In my case, like many of us, I know (and always knew even way back) that the art everybody wanted at my purchase point wouldn't outperform the art few wanted. Just the way it works, the higher the demand, the higher the price you pay already has that baked in leaving less on the table for when you sell. That's why it's so easy to "buy only what you like" and then "if it doesn't go up or even goes down at least you're stuck with something you don't mind seeing every day". This isn't an accident of life, it's a matter of how close you were to the top-ticker on the day you bought. Sometimes this is measured in days or months, sometimes decades as the steam is slowly let out creating room (again) for gains to be made on bounces. Mike Burkey's biggest claim to fame (aside from being The Hobby Nice Guy) is he correctly bought out of favor Romita ASM instead of hot Ditko ASM in the late 80s and early 90s. And we know how that worked out, applying the stuff I wrote above. I did the same for the art/artists I enjoy, though later and likely not to the same eventual reward that Mike has enjoyed (of this I'm quite certain). But how much "gain" does one need? Especially for the stuff you happen to "love" too? Mike's broad 10,000% ROI (or whatever, but it's A Lot) is greater than my 2,000% (let's say) but in both cases...blows everything else away that's out there and available to the general public the last 30 years. (Except AAPL and MSFT near IPO, maybe?) I expected to beat bank rates, and otherwise be diversifying outside Wall St, can't really take much credit for the rest of those gains, mostly a matter of having the will to act at the right time (so mostly LUCK!) But it worked, and worked in spades. Mike's been picking up Ditko ASM here and there for himself, surely funded with the proceeds of letting some Romita ASM go, and I've done some of the same - flipping out the "out of favor" I bought previously that went up a lot faster than the "perma in favor", and using the proceeds to vastly enhance my personal NFS collection (and at a time where I still have many years to enjoy it!) The stuff I flip (not comic art, that's a dead asset class - all keepers - at today's prices in my book)...a double less frequently than annually is a loser. Not worth my speculation or time, too many other great opportunities vying for my money. So over ten years...ugh. But that double, the curve also flattens really quick, all the fat gain is in the first year of ownership (buy right and strike to sell while the iron is still hot) and then it's like 5-10% annualized (maybe) from that point on, and still highly illiquid (unless fire-saled) etc, all the usual downsides to niche collectibles. So you get it and then get out to get the meat of the gain. It's not like a double every year, so just buy 'n hold Rumpelstiltskin and be filthy rich blah blah when you wake up. That's what the podcast was trying to explain, I'm sure everybody got it, that you can't double every five, ten years in perpetuity. For that to happen, even in the short term there has to be somebody else willing to take over that asset risk from you, and likely only because they have been doing something (wage earnings or ROI) at an even greater rate of return (than the art in question)! So what's been beating mainstream superhero comic art's ROI - uh Silicon Valley IPO cashouts and Eastern oligarchical takeovers of formerly state owned assets. And...? Right. So that's where the reality check is. These are not permanent scenarios that one can sell into at any time. There is a rather finite supply of "I've been doing much better than you" folks to sell to, hardly perpetual (and assuming they even give a about comic art to begin with). Only the government can publish infinite growth models while keeping a straight face What about art you sell (rep)? (Not being snarky, just completing the circle.) Great analysis My admittedly limited contribution is that any analysis of comic OA must also account for the effects of inflation and preserving "wealth" with comic OA as a hedge (like gold and silver). Blue chip pieces like Swamp Thing 1 cover (auction is later today, so price to be determined) will always seriously outperform a Man Thing cover which is derivative and less of an inflation hedge especially if liquidity in the OA market becomes an issue, which it probably will at some point. Buy the best of the best . . . always again my that playing "moneyball" only works in a bull market

Really fair point, Speed. I would say if there are people that have decided to use discretionary spending on comics and decided that it would be their retirement, they would indeed be in trouble. Not because of the value per se, but because of how they have planned their financial futures (to your point). If so, the impact to their "retirement" is less so because of the downfall of comic values, but rather, because of their lack of financial planning. We buy comics because we love them, and sure, the value growth is a nice plus, but by no means should anyone be buying strictly comics for investment/retirement purposes. If you want to diversify your portfolio and part of that means fine art or other collectables, fine, but if someone has everything tied into one thing, I would seriously advise them to re-consider. I see your point, however if one invested in the GA/SA/BA of the primo stuff since the year 2000 then yes investing in comics was a 500% over their $1 wise decision. Stocks for me can't make me more $ than comics for the past 10 years. So much of comic book land is now priced to perfection and the underlying global economy is getting wobbly. Gonna get interesting. Yeah the end is obviously near. Let me know when people start working for free! Then AF 15's will also be free. You know what Brexit means in the long run? Nothing. Stupid people panic. $ will be transferred from one bank account to another just as it always has. Nice mixture of straw man arguments and non sequiturs

Really fair point, Speed. I would say if there are people that have decided to use discretionary spending on comics and decided that it would be their retirement, they would indeed be in trouble. Not because of the value per se, but because of how they have planned their financial futures (to your point). If so, the impact to their "retirement" is less so because of the downfall of comic values, but rather, because of their lack of financial planning. We buy comics because we love them, and sure, the value growth is a nice plus, but by no means should anyone be buying strictly comics for investment/retirement purposes. If you want to diversify your portfolio and part of that means fine art or other collectables, fine, but if someone has everything tied into one thing, I would seriously advise them to re-consider. I see your point, however if one invested in the GA/SA/BA of the primo stuff since the year 2000 then yes investing in comics was a 500% over their $1 wise decision. Stocks for me can't make me more $ than comics for the past 10 years. So much of comic book land is now priced to perfection and the underlying global economy is getting wobbly. Gonna get interesting.

I know. You have now made that same point multiple times. Too much. Even if you're not KK, you're every bit as charming.

I know. You have now made that same point multiple times. Too much.

Yes. Two copies. Do you own a lot of original art? No So you're not the member formerly known as Krazy Kat? You're obsessed with this belief. For the gazillionth time - no ! Sure, but to my knowledge you've never addressed it directly. You certainly do post A LOT like him. so are you ABSOLUTELY sure you are not crazy cat ? Maybe I should speak with my psychotherapist just to make sure

It could very well make an excellent hedge. I admit that I have mixed thoughts on this subject. Even though I expect stagflation, I think the deflationary forces of the underlying economy might swamp the inflation. Specifically, unlike Action 1 & Detective 27 which I think are in the strong hands of the truly wealthy, I think that Amazing Fantasy 15s resides in the collections of mostly the middle class. If the middle class need to put food on the table, Amazing Fantasy 15s will come out of the woodwork.

Yes. Two copies. Do you own a lot of original art? No So you're not the member formerly known as Krazy Kat? You're obsessed with this belief. For the gazillionth time - no !

Yes. Two copies. Do you own a lot of original art? No

Yes. Two copies.

The same thing the financial crisis of 2007, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the real estate bubble pop, and the recent cratering of Apple stock have to do with it. Nothing. Disagree Disagree with what? All those things already happened and they had little to no impact on key comic values. If serious American economic issues didn't have an impact on American comic books, why would a foreign economic issue have any impact at all? It wouldn't and it won't. The reaction has begun Not sure how that's an answer to my relatively straightforward question, but ok. Let's check back in 6 months when our copies of AF 15 have gone up some more. Peter G, The consensus seems to lean toward Brexit having very little to no impact on comic collectibles. Don't buy those victory lap Nikes yet. I don't follow the consensus. That is partially why I expected Brexit to occur. http://www.safehaven.com/article/41848/economic-predictions-for-summer-2016-the-epocalypse-keeps-crashing

The same thing the financial crisis of 2007, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the real estate bubble pop, and the recent cratering of Apple stock have to do with it. Nothing. Disagree Disagree with what? All those things already happened and they had little to no impact on key comic values. If serious American economic issues didn't have an impact on American comic books, why would a foreign economic issue have any impact at all? It wouldn't and it won't. The reaction has begun

The same thing the financial crisis of 2007, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the real estate bubble pop, and the recent cratering of Apple stock have to do with it. Nothing. Disagree

It will become clearer as protectionism takes hold

I thought u had me on ignore ? Regardless, we both know that you have a view of the world that is different from mine. I hope that in and of itself isn't reason enough for you to constantly disparage my point of view. If you wanna disagree with my opinion and thoughts, I have no problem with that but is it really necessary to mock me ? Seriously ?

"Value" in today's world is impossible to determine due to today's current central bank policies of money printing world wide. If deflationary forces take hold then some will "Liquidate liquidate liquidate" their assets into the money printing. Stagflation will probably be the result. I am merely reflecting on "value" of Amazing Fantasy 15 in this time period. And after a 10x run up in price in recent years, I am just reflecting on where this book goes from here. After the inevitable crack up, life will go on. I am certainly not suggesting MAd MAx.

I absolutely agree that it is impossible to predict. That said, I can't help myself in trying to better understand what is "value" in this strange new world, with all this global money printing by these central banks. Even today, equity markets are up based on hopes of central bank commitment to print in coordination. As regards Amazing Fantasy 15, I assess value based on my expectations of the final innings of this current stagflationary environment. As such, I strongly question whether AF 15 has much more growth in real terms (not nominal terms) when the global economy gets even more protectionist - which seems inevitable to me. Hence, the title of this thread.

Who said you couldn't relax ? I certainly didn't mean to stress you out My opinions are an honest assessment of the comic hobby and the economics of things as they relate to Amazing Fantasy 15 being over priced That's all Your arguments for AF 15 being over priced are almost entirely based upon the supply side, arguing that the book is not that rare. Truth is, the stock is fixed an has been since publication. Price is now and really always has been almost entirely demand driven. I believe demand will continue to increase. That is a valid argument and certainly is the nub of our disagreement I think demand will fall. Not because the book isn't an important and cool book. I love Amazing Fantasy 15 and still have my copies. I just believe that the economy is gonna seriously stall and I question whether due to its commonness, whether it will be a good store of value I just think prices will come down I certainly don't think they will be going up from here And the idea of a permanent plateau is unlikely Yes, I do agree that our main difference is on supply side vs demand side. And honestly, I could see demand cool off some as comic book movies lose steam, etc. but I don't think it will be enough for the price to actually decrease. And sorry if I got defensive, I just thought your first reply was dismissive. You seem a decent fellow. Water under the bridge. Water under the bridge