PhilipB2k17

That's my point. The nostalgia driven art market of the near future will not be Boomer driven.

I think the smart play in OA collecting, right now, is buying modern art from books that are popular, selling well, or have cultural cache. Those pages have the most growth potential. I think some 90's stuff might have potential as well. But, I think the baby boomer driven stuff is due for a huge market correction. Top level Kirby, or Ditko, etc should hold up. But after that, look out. .

I think the same way about Crumb. I really doubt future generations are going to want that stuff. But, I generally agree with you. That's why I set the timeline at around the 20 year mark, when you will see all the Gen Ex and Baby Boomer collections getting dumped into the market.

That's an extreme example. But, I think there are a lot of Gen Exers and Millennial comic book collectors who do not also currently collect OA. And I think that ratio is quite large. If you reduce the ratio just a few spaces, that's a lot of new blood into the hobby. And these people would then be in the hobby for, potentially, decades. Whether that trend continues after Gen X, is a good question. But, keep in mind that Millennials are now the largest generation in the US. Gen Ex is quite small by comparison. So, you could theoretically see a significantly smaller percentage of Millennials collecting comics or OA, but still not see much of a drop off in actual numbers of collectors in the hobby as the baby boomers pass from the scene. I believe that the explosion of pop culture cons as going to fuel an interest in the OA hobby among Millennials, actually. They go to these things to cosplay, or to see their favorite movie or TV star, but then discover artist alleys, and realize that you can BUY original art from comics that are being made into TV series and Films. So, I think that the movies and TV shows may not necessarily be creating new comic book collectors, but a lot of these fans do go back and read the collected editions of these books because they are interested in the source material. So, I could see Millennials with a generational desire to support things that are "authentic" being drawn to the Original art for these things. But, who knows? And then, there is the potential internationalization of the hobby. Modern OA has no word balloons, so there is no language barrier that may dissuade some collectors. Again, it's a potentially huge market out there.

Of course it's new money...in the OA hobby. If Warren Buffet decided to buy OA tomorrow, it's still new money in ~this~ hobby, if not generally. That's what matters.

I like a lot of art. I see a lot of young, hungry artists at cons with portfolios. I don't buy their stuff, despite like some of it. Why? It's unpublished? I buy only published art, or art I think will be published. I don't even buy commissions from established artists The modern art market is similar. It just takes one patron or gallery owner to get you kickstarted. But most of these artists struggle to sell their stuff, and languish. And, It not always because the art isn't good.

I'd guess that the ratio of Comic Collectors to OA collectors is at least 10 to 1. Just reducing that ratio to 9 or 8 to one adds a lot of new money chasing OA than existed before. Yes, there is a barrier to entry, but given the ratio involved there's plenty of room to grow as people reach prime earning years. I put a 20 year horizon on it, but it could be 15...or 25. 20 seems about right as that is when Gen Xers start hitting retirement age and may be ready to unload their collections. It's also around the time a lot of baby boom collectors start dying off in large numbers. (Harsh to say, but it's a fact of life). And, as I said, it would be interesting to see a market survey to determine the actual growth potential. I suspect some folks have done that, privately, which is why you see investors and speculators jump into the higher end of the OA market But, in the medium term, Idbe pretty wary of heavily investing in OA whose value is being driven largely by baby boomer nostalgia.

I think Gene is mostly correct that long term demographics probably do not favor comic books or even OA as an investment. But, I think medium term, the hobby (OA, particularly) will grow. I just attended a Con and know several dealers who were there. They know I collect OA, and are asking me more questions about getting into it. I know this is anecdotal, but the universe of comic collectors is still larger than OA collectors, and there's still a lot of room to grow in OA by converting comic collectors into OA collectors. There's at least 20 years of that potential growth, I think. What would be interesting is to do a survey on comic collecting and OA collecting among the general population, and also among comic collectors generally. Break down the demographics, etc. But, that is a subject that is not wholly related to this thread. The fine art market, at its core, is a tax dodge and investment market. It's a store of value for liquid assets, for the most part. It's also a status symbol. There are a few OA artists who are breaking through into that realm, such as Frazetta and Crumb. And I expect a few more will eventually. But, Modern Art - like Modern OA - gets the benefit of speculation from people who want to buy pieces at the ground floor, hoping they turn into the next De Koonig, or Lichtenstein, etc. - or Dark Knight Returns Walking Dead, or Killing Joke. I brought this up in a previous thread. There's an incentive to turn a new modern artist into a big name by the people who "discover" them, and also who own a lot pf their work. Will physical comic collecting go away? I think people buying individual issues might. But, I think folks will shift to collecting trades, and that may be how these things come out in the future, along with digital. Remember how Amazon and the Kindle was going to kill physical book sales? It dipped initially, but people actually like reading physical books. As long as there is a desire for illustrated sequential storytelling, there will be comic book OA. Gene is also correct that certain types of antique categories are losing value. But, that is a function of changing tastes and society. Furniture is a great example. In a generation of people who like spare, modern styling, or IKEA, who is going to want an ornate 19th century china hutch? Heck, people don't even buy fine china or silverware any longer. And, decorative arts have always been fragmented. There were always niche collectors of pre-Columbian art, or African art, etc. But lets look at the rise in prices of classic movie posters. Why do these continue to go up in price? Or rare books? Because people still watch movies, or read books. They may not have fancy dinner parties with fine china or silverware. But they read, and watch created content on an entertainment device.

There is also the reverse problem. Not all so-called "fine" artists can do sequential storytelling well.

I have a friend who is part of the NY art scene that has a style I think could be pretty successful as a cover artist.

Bill Sinkiewicz might also be a guy who could cross over. http://www.billsienkiewiczart.com/gallery.asp?sc=BSWC1

Found it! It's Arthur Pinajian. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/arts/design/saved-from-obscurity-arthur-pinajians-paintings-shown-in-gallery.html

No. I distinctly recall that he was discovered after his death when they found all of his art. Just a year or so ago.

I can't remember the name, but wasn't there just a kind of obscure golden age comic book artist who was "discovered" as a modern art master recently? They found all of his non-comic book work after he died, and it's now recognized as a major art find. I wish I could recall the name.

Grail taunting

Tell that to the..."Cabal."* *Whoever that is.

Here's my expert valuation: A Lot. A silver age, intact WW cover with Supergirl, of that quality, would be very sought after and I could see a bidding war for it.

Case in point, is this a cover or a splash? If you don't read this comic (Teen Titans rebirth) you wouldn't know, or unless you see the top descriptor

I saw a Stokoe Godzilla DPS from Oblivion that blew me away, and inquired about it. But sadly, it had already been sold. So, I looked for another Stokoe Godzilla page, and found this one. I paid an very fair interior page price for it. And when I searched for the comic on eBay (I like to have the comic my pages are from) I came across the SDCC Variant cover using my splash. Needless to say, I was pretty happy to find that out.

Hopefully Felix will chime in on this question. Although, he may not want to divulge his proprietary pricing methodology.

I'd modify that heirarchy to say that a rarer variant cover is likely more valuable than Cover A, depending on the artist!

Well, I have the best of both worlds (I guess) when it comes to one of my modern pages. I have an interior splash that was actually turned ~into~ a variant cover by the Publisher. Here's the link to it on my CAF page. http://www.comicartfans.com/gallerypiece.asp?piece=1402822

I have no grail. There are pieces I would love to own, and would make reasonable sacrifices to buy if any became obtainable, but nothing I obsess over. I like so many great OA pages that I find it hard to pick just one that would qualify. I think "grail-level" is a good way to define it. And I am not of the camp who thinks it necessarily wrong to sell your grail. Sometimes, the thrill is in the chase. Obtaining your grail may be more satisfying than possessing it long term. People are odd creatures. P.S. - How about "The One?"

Here's a link to a French website selling that piece. Was this the dealer you bought it from? Or was he just advertising it there? https://www.entre-image.com/originaux/149-moebius-dessin-original-alphonse-machinet.html

In Clay Mann's case, from what I know, he does pretty tight pencils that are very close to the final inked version.