valiantman

The gun hand is often broken.  From what I can remember, these may have sold better in Europe than they did in the United States. The few that have come up for sale seem to be from sellers in Germany or the U.K.  You could try asking on ValiantFans.com but I'm not sure anyone really ever had extras. Collectors either avoid them (because of the easy damage) or they get one to put aside forever.

On 1/22/2024 at 8:27 AM, BitterOldMan said:

Having worked as a professional statistician, you can use probabilities to your benefit.  Jerry and Marge Selbee made $26 million from the lottery using one of two fundamental theorem of statistics, the law of large numbers.

I hadn't heard the Selbee story. That's fun because there's not a way to start small and win the actual lottery (the big one, Mega whatever), but that particular game they were playing was so poorly designed that anyone who did the math would realize it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerry-and-marge-selbee-how-a-retired-couple-won-millions-using-a-lottery-loophole-60-minutes-2019-06-09/

On 1/21/2024 at 6:48 PM, Krydel4 said:

On 1/21/2024 at 6:30 PM, valiantman said:

I don't remember who posted it, but "the power to manipulate probability" is the single greatest superpower, and not only would kids thinks it's lame, adults do, too.

But think about it... if you had the ability to manipulate probability, you could make things than have a 0% chance of happening turn into 100%.

Do you want to go in a store and find no other customers but yourself? Odds are very low of that happening, but wait, no, the probability just went to 100%.

Do you want to sleep all night without getting up to go pee pee (as someone said earlier)... odds just went to 100%.

Don't forget the classic superpowers... what are the odds you can fly?  Well, it's now 100%.

What would be the odds of dying from multiple gunshots? Pretty high, right?  Nope, it just went to 0%.

What are the odds you could do anything you want and not be seen, even by video cameras?  Well, that's 100%, too.

The power to manipulate probability is the single greatest superpower and both kids and adults would think it (sounds) lame.

What are the odds you read this whole post? I'm going to go ahead and set that one at 20%.

 

Expand  

Unfortunately, that's not how probabilities work, it's not all or nothing. Reality/dimensional manipulation perhaps where you could shunt yourself into another universe where the store is empty, or you didn't have to pee that night maybe.

If your superpower is manipulating probabilities, then it's as all-or-nothing as you want it to be. Why would I set something to 72% if I want it to happen?

On 1/21/2024 at 6:36 PM, Ken Aldred said:

On 1/21/2024 at 6:30 PM, valiantman said:

I don't remember who posted it, but "the power to manipulate probability" is the single greatest superpower, and not only would kids thinks it's lame, adults do, too

Scarlet Witch, I think?

I guess, but she keeps getting stopped, so she must not have the power to hold the probability. 

On 12/24/2023 at 9:55 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

When was the last time an ASM 300 was graded a 9.9?

seems like forever, especially considering the number of copies submitted in just the past 5 years!

The last CGC 9.9 for ASM #300 was graded in the first week of July 2013.

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/search/comicid/273

Sorry it wasn't a 9.9, but the "unlimited tier" is for any book worth at least $1,000, so it could have been a 9.6 and still been bumped to unlimited.

https://www.cgccomics.com/submit/services-fees/cgc-grading/

If the item is purchased through Ebay, the buyer is protected from scams.

There's no way a scammer (who wasn't the seller) would know you're the buyer.

It could be a shill because the seller wanted you to pay your max price, but it's not from someone who is uninvolved in the auction.

On 12/7/2023 at 11:08 AM, jsilverjanet said:

@valiantman

I definitely don't have time to do anything like that

On 12/6/2023 at 4:18 PM, Aman619 said:

just checked it out. Im confused...  What does Comichron tell us?  How does one use it?  Ids it a circulation/orders database?

 

When they were reported (about 20 years between 1995 and 2015), North American first month direct orders were known.  How I would use it is for knowing the "bare minimum" number of copies of something that should exist.

See a book from 2010 that has 40,000 units on Comichron, know that at least 40,000 exist... probably more for non-North American orders, possibly more for second month orders, etc.

If someone online says "RARE" and you see 40,000 on Comichron... not rare.

On 12/5/2023 at 1:17 PM, sd2416 said:

On 12/4/2023 at 12:57 PM, valiantman said:

Are you talking about how many sold when they were new?  If so... comichron.com

Are you talking about CGC sales?  If so... gpanalysis.com

 

Is Penguin and Lunar reporting to Comichron now?

Nope. https://comichron.com/faq/directmarketsalesdata.html

If Comichron.com doesn't have it, then it's probably not possible to get it.

On 12/4/2023 at 3:19 AM, BA773 said:

On mycomicshop i can see the cgc census, but i want to know if i can find a database of sales or print? The one who help me win an Oreo!

 

Are you talking about how many sold when they were new?  If so... comichron.com

Are you talking about CGC sales?  If so... gpanalysis.com

@RockMyAmadeus is an expert on this book as well, I don't know if he has notes to add.

I think it's more interesting than an identical copy signed by the artist without the quote, but I think it would be more valuable if the signature and quote were written by the actor.

Those issues were very popular, so a lot of newsstands were printed. I didn't see any high grade in my area at the time, but there are likely to be many high grade copies in the world simply because they're from the right period of time.

This is one of the reasons I created CGCEMC.com

I believe that "overall demand" is a total dollar amount which we can estimate. Demand = Supply times Price

If a "key" book has "overall demand" for slabbed copies around $5,000,000 total, and there are 500 copies graded, then the average price is around $10,000 each.

If another 100 copies suddenly hit the market, the price would drop (plummet!) quite a bit for a while, but the overall demand was $5,000,000 before, and is probably still $5,000,000 after the market settles.  The supply goes from 500 to 600, to the average price probably settles around $8,333.  However, the average grade might increase if the 100 new books were nice warehouse copies, so that $8,333 average would be for a higher average CGC grade than the $10,000 average in the past... and that $10,000 book before the warehouse find might become $6,000 or so.

Regardless, a book which the "overall demand" was $5,000,000 total is likely to still have $5,000,000 total in demand after a warehouse find. The individual prices fall, but the demand isn't falling. In fact, if more people can "play" at a lower price, then the overall demand could even increase even while individual prices fall.

On 11/14/2023 at 12:55 PM, flchris said:

It was a print on ebay: SUPERMAN: Better Than Ever PRINT Stopping a Train DC 1993 | eBay

Part of a set of 8... https://www.ebay.com/itm/394309472685

On 11/13/2023 at 4:47 PM, MAR1979 said:

^ Thanks man. Is the listing only attainable via the API?

Happy to report I own none of the top6

I just went to this page, copied the top couple hundred books into Excel and sorted by the CGC 9.8 column. http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/cgctop/

On 11/13/2023 at 2:35 PM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

On 11/13/2023 at 7:39 AM, MAR1979 said:

Meant books with highest/most 9.8 pop counts

It's probably Spider-man 1 (Silver Edition); almost 11K. X-Men 1 is close, but the census doesn't differentiate between the 4 connecting covers.

Spawn #1 is highest on CGC 9.8 population, but Spider-Man #1 Silver is near the top (third).

Book and CGC Census Population CGC 9.8

(all counts in this list are CGC 9.8 only)

Spawn 1 (1992, Image Comics)    15,442 in CGC 9.8 (all counts in this list are CGC 9.8 only)
Venom: Lethal Protector 1 (1993, Marvel Comics)    11,180
Spider-Man 1 Silver Edition (1990, Marvel Comics)    10,723
X-Men 1 (1991, Marvel Comics)    10,553
Spider-Man 1 (1990, Marvel Comics)    8,093
Amazing Spider-Man 4 (2014, Marvel Comics)    7,092
Amazing Spider-Man 361 (1992, Marvel Comics)    6,730
Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars 8 (1984, Marvel Comics)    6,587
X-Men 4 (1992, Marvel Comics)    5,528
Venom 3 (2018, Marvel Comics)    5,512
Amazing Spider-Man 362 (1992, Marvel Comics)    5,106
Wolverine Limited Series 1 (1982, Marvel Comics)    4,965
Spider-Man 7 Ramos Variant Cover (2023, Marvel Comics)    4,876
New Mutants 98 (1991, Marvel Comics)    4,845
Batman: The Killing Joke nn (1988, D.C. Comics)    4,728
X-Men 1 Special Collectors Edition (1991, Marvel Comics)    4,619
Ultimate Fallout 4 (2011, Marvel Comics)    4,586
Darth Vader 3 (2015, Marvel Comics)    4,461
War of the Realms: New Agents of Atlas 1 (2019, Marvel Comics)    4,229
Uncanny X-Men 266 (1990, Marvel Comics)    4,227
TMNT: The Last Ronin 1 (2020, IDW Publishing)    4,143 (plus 400+ CGC 9.9 and CGC 10)
Something is Killing the Children 1 Eighth Printing (2021, Boom! Studios)    4,103
Amazing Spider-Man 55 (2021, Marvel Comics)    4,042

On 11/9/2023 at 9:21 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

The trend I see is mostly generational, as  those items were of cultural or practical importance to one generation, they peak after 50-75 years and then they drop off. American Comics are well passed their shelf-life date. We've spent the last 25 years with a moribund medium of cross-overs, reboots, death and rebirth, re-hash, gender and race swaps, and 17 different series that have Infinity Gloves, Garters, Gauntlets, Gum-ball Machines, and Garden Gnomes. What filled that void? The little device in your pocket (no not that one, the other one) and a side order of Manga. 

Just curious whether the 50-75 years is measured from the start of the era or from the start of widespread collecting?  For example, U.S. coin and stamp collecting were big in the middle of the 20th century, but the items had already been around for 150+ years.

So, if the 50-75 year estimate starts with the beginning of widespread collecting, comics would be about 1963 starting as widespread collectible, and we're in roughly year 60.

CGC 9.9 and 10 are almost "common" when it comes to later 1980s books that are squarebound with a cardstock cover (like Killing Joke) or a special type of "thicker" cover like Venom Lethal Protector #1 or chromium from the 1990s, and CGC 9.9s are basically "very common" when it comes to those special thicker and chromium covers after the 1990s.  Any book with 10,000+ submissions since 1990 is also likely to have several 9.9s and 10s, but they aren't a high percentage of that book's submissions.

Some books since 2000 are so common in 9.9 (or higher), it's not even worth having them CGC graded at 9.8 or lower. (Batman: Damned #1, for example)

Otherwise, regular "floppy" paper covers (since 1980 and before about 2005) don't result in CGC 9.9 or CGC 10 much more than 1-in-300 submissions for NM or higher... and it's probably close to 1-out-of-100 CGC 9.8s which every submitter out of 100 probably hoped they would get a 9.9... and 99 of them were wrong about 9.9 (but they did get a 9.8).

What might have been...

On 11/4/2023 at 5:03 PM, AmbassadorSlip said:

How did CGC get this wrong? Or did they? Is this a con? All I know is that the CGC label says variant, but that is not the variant. Am I missing something? On ebay as "Rare CGC 9.6 NM Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #3 + Variant 1st Print 1985 Tmnt" I am genuinely curious as to what is going on here. 

If I am violating any forum rules please just let me know so that I don't do it again. I didn't link to an ebay sale, which I pretty sure is a no-no.

Probably a case where the submitter decided it must be the variant (because why wouldn't they try to claim it's the rare version), and the data entry (quality assurance) person didn't know the difference.