COI

Pretty odd how "triggered" some of you get from this video. We know nothing about this man or their family dynamic. You guys are identifying with the father because he's a collector, but you have no idea what kind of husband or father he was, nor do you know what kind of people his ex or son are. Strained family relationships are complicated and almost never one-sided. As far as them "enriching" themselves off of his collection - well yes, that's how it works. The guy was a lawyer and could've stipulated otherwise. This isn't a moral issue.

Are you saying the most educated and smartest minds don't have half a brain or a high school diploma? I would've assumed that a high school diploma was a necessary condition for being in the "most educated" group. We don't know what we don't know, and expertise in anything 1) takes a lifetime to acquire and 2) doesn't come with psychic powers and 3) doesn't bestow anyone with the superhuman ability to either collect all the information there is, or to perfectly interpret the information that is available. And no amount of intelligence or expertise can completely liberate us from the bugs in our system; cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, perverse incentives, etc. And that includes the Monday morning quarterback mode of thinking you're employing here.

Also, like most of you, I sold many books between 2006-2012 that have blown up since, but I remind myself that some of you remember buying SA and BA keys at cover price. At least I've been spared that. Still miss my 9.4 ASM 14 though.

Buying a raw VF/NM Avengers 1, and a NM- Avengers 1 from Danny Dupcak, then subsequently finding these boards and learning who Dupcak was while they were still in transit to me. I did send them to CGC and they both came back restored. Dupcak did refund me my money, but I was out grading and customs fees which were substantial. Ironically, if I held onto them in their purple labels (graded 8.0 and 9.0 respectively) I would've made money eventually, but this was way before we even had a hint that the MCU was coming. It would've made no sense in 2002 to keep those books. So it's a double regret I guess; buyer's remorse right after, then later, a bit of regret for not keeping them long term. I also found these boards because of that purchase, which is a good thing on some days and a regret on others, depending on my mood or what thread I'm inflicting on myself.

They're also the type of books that are great for new collectors. I don't really understand the disdain some collectors have for this era.

Well, this is cranky. Supply is only half of the equation, and old timers sure do fixate on supply. There is actually no trouble with these books; this is some of the easiest material to sell. And the fact that common "junk" like this sells for what it does only serves as a positive indicator for the hobby.

I believe this was my first comic. I was 5 when this came out. I wish I still had it. Cartoons were the gateway drug for me.

Restaurant chains dump unfathomable amounts of perfectly edible food every day instead of giving it away to people who could use a meal. This is nothing new, although the environmental impact is obviously worse.

Again, correct. That we may be in peak times due to a confluence of undeniably incredible circumstances does not equal "crash" or "doomsday". Yes, no one saw the MCU or lockdowns or historic run of low interest rates coming 20 years ago, and it may be the case that some other unforeseen factors may intervene in the next 20 to give comics more life, but that can go both ways; some unforeseen circumstances may intervene to work AGAINST the market as well. You can hypothesize infinitely in either direction. What we do know is that the demographic shift is coming, and that the last 14 years of the MCU has been unprecedented, both in the history of film and in pop culture generally. It's hard to see how it could be replicated or sustained going forward. Call it regression to the mean. We also know that the MCU coincided with - again - 4 generations of collectors stacking on top of each other, in an environment where "free" money was flowing. This hobby is young; it hasn't reached true cultural significance or maturity yet. The original generation of collectors is still around; the passing of the torch hasn't happened yet. To wonder about the transition - in light of the generational shifts and other factors I just mentioned - is rational from where I'm sitting, and can't be reduced to 'chicken littles at it again' and past-as-prologue arguments, especially since this hobby barely has any past to draw on in the larger scheme of things. This is pop-culture, not history. So even putting aside the demographics and economics, what is popular and what is culturally relevant is always in flux.

This is definitely the case for my post. I put out a broad outline as to why I think this recent run-up might be the peak; I didn't say anything about a crash, or comics losing all their value, nor did I say that zoomers won't be collecting.

The reason it's not the same argument is because I'm factoring in things that hadn't happened yet, including the MCU explosion and lessons learned from the recent run-up, and I'm not arguing for things like the death of physical media at all. The demographic shift my argument hinges on hasn't happened yet. You're right, they painted with too broad of a brush, but you're doing something similar by lumping in my arguments with theirs. I was there too, I remember those arguments, and I've made a lot of points in the past that were clearly wrong. That's fine, but the demographic issue has yet to unfold. I take your point that if you buy what you can afford to lose - if you actually "collect" - then it doesn't matter, but I find it interesting and other people do to, hence why it's being brought up here. I am genuinely interested to see what will unfold, and my guess is this is as good as it's going to get for a long time. It's just a guess. Does a bunch of people getting the demographics argument wrong 10, 15 or 20 years ago means there's nothing left to discuss? Especially since, as you mentioned, the macro trends are what they are and haven't resolved themselves yet? We're on the same page that there is an infinite number of possible intervening factors that could turn any demographics based argument on its head, but then what is there to discuss if all we're going to talk about is what we already know for certain? In conversations like this, the speculative nature of the points being made is implied, and I'm not here telling anyone what they should or shouldn't do with their money or collections.

Again, the demographic shift I'm talking about hasn't happened yet. People forget how young this hobby actually is, relative to other stuff like antiques and coins/currency or fine art. There are people buying and selling right now who were buying and selling the same stuff when this market was barely a market at all. We have nothing to compare the upcoming shift to.

The demographic shifts I'm talking about have yet to be proven correct, because they haven't happened yet. I'm talking about the zoomers not being able to replace the boomers, which is a long term problem, because there are two generations separating the two. 20 years ago, the zoomers were in diapers or weren't born yet, and the boomers weren't close to retirement. The fact that I'm making a point about demographics doesn't mean it's the same point that was being made 20 years ago. It doesn't mean I'm right either, but simply pointing to the past and saying essentially that because something hasn't happened in the last 20 years it won't in the next 20, isn't a particularly compelling argument either. I laid out a case as to why I think we might be in peak times; I may be totally wrong, but I don't think a hand wave and pointing to a bunch of outdated arguments from 20 years ago - as if they're the exact same arguments I'm making here - addresses those points. It might be easy to vaguely point to the future and claim an eventual collapse, but hindsight and rear-view extrapolation is also easy. I also understand that it's easier to be cynical about the future because on a long enough timescale everything collapses eventually. And you were right to not put too much weight in what people were saying 20 years ago because no one has a crystal ball; but we do have data on demographics, and this shift is coming. To someone else's point, it's going to affect a lot more than just comics and demographers have been on this stuff for decades. The timing and the "how" in terms of its impact on this market no one knows, but I think it's interesting to discuss. As to the point in bold, I agree completely and wouldn't suggest otherwise. It's what I do myself.

This doesn't refute anything I said about the changing demographics. Actually, it doesn't say anything at all.

I didn't say that. I said the boomers constitute the largest generation of collectors, and the ones who are still around have been at it for a long time. Of course lots of them bought and sold and bought again since the '60s and '70s but if you bought in the '90s or early 2000s, you bought for pennies on the dollar relative to today on a lot of the most popular books.

You guys do know that "influencers" or whatever get their "influence" by getting attention, right? They benefit from people "hate watching" just as much as from making actual fans. Their incentives are to ratchet up the noise and controversy, not increase the quality of their content. So as cathartic as threads like this might be for some of you, you're just boosting their profiles. Actually ignoring them is how they go away. Just saying.

"Demography is destiny". This is likely the peak, not just because of the MCU or the saturation of superheroes in the culture generally, but because of demographics. At this moment we have 4 generations of collectors overlapping: boomers, gen x, millennials and zoomers. The boomers are the largest and wealthiest generation, both inside and outside the context of the comic book market. They're the ones who got in on the ground floor and have most of the best books/collections, with much of that material acquired for pennies on the dollar many years ago. On the other end, the zoomers are the smallest generation. Again, both inside and outside the context of the hobby, they're a fraction of the size and they're going to have a fraction of the wealth. Aside from a lucky few who may inherit a boomer or gen x'er collection at some point, the ones who want to collect are going to have to do so from scratch, buying in at high tide. The Gen x'ers and millennials are are a large group and they may (emphasis on may) be able to absorb all of the incredible books that are going to be hitting the market in the next 10-15 years as the boomers exit, but there's close to zero chance that the zoomers will constitute a replacement generation for the boomers. It isn't happening. You can count heads all you want at the next con or the next 20 cons and you can keep telling yourselves that certain books (GA and pre-'64 SA!!) will always be safe, but it's just a question of 'when' not 'if' this will no longer be true. It's not because comics aren't great, or culturally significant; the numbers just don't work. Collecting appears to be as much an innate temperament as it is "just a hobby", so sure, there will be youngsters who have that temperament, and their nostalgia for whatever they're consuming on Disney + might drive them to want to collect the source material. As a generation, however, they just won't have the numbers or the resources to replace the three generations that came before them. And they certainly won't have the same sensibilities, so you can't assume they'll care for war propaganda, or robots carrying women off into the sunset, or "good girl art", or gratuitous pre-code violence, or whatever else you think is safe, even if those books only have ____ number on the census. This is why I think we're in peak times. I'm not suggesting all prices across the board will never hit 2021 levels again, but this window of stacking generations is closing. No one knows what's going to happen, but you can't deny the confluence of extraordinary circumstances in the last few years. Hard to see how this perfect storm ever gets replicated again, or how circumstances can change in the future to facilitate substantial and consistent growth for the market in the coming decades.

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I'm exaggerating for sure, but that's because I find it baffling that this conversation is still happening after all these years. Those stickers serve no purpose and people have been complaining, but C-Link persists for God knows what reason. And I'm not saying they're a bad company, because they're not, which is what makes it all so dumb and unnecessary. Put the sticker on the bag if you MUST put a sticker on something. I shouldn't have to take a trips to a craft store or spend any time at all making goo "be gone". We can call it vandalism if you want, because graffiti can also be removed or covered up.

I will never understand the stickers, nor do I understand why there hasn't been enough of a backlash in the last 20+ years to get them to stop. I have slabs that have nasty residue on the back of them because of this stupid, inconsiderate practice. If I had my way, everyone would demand C-Link pay to re-holder all the slabs they've damaged over the years with their nonsense. No one buying the books wants the stickers there, and I fail to see how those stickers benefit C-Link in terms of marketing. To me, it's the equivalent of piszing on them to mark that they were once your territory. As long as I've been on this forum there have been complaints, and nothing changes. Maybe this bothers me more that should, but it's JUST. SO. DUMB. As if CGC didn't give us enough reasons with their lack of quality control to have to re-holder books, C-Link and others insist on damaging slabs so that you know 'they were here'.

If the powers granted by hindsight could be used to accurately predict the future, we'd all be geniuses. And we'd all be rich. At some point you have to make a move, and there are always reasons to hesitate if that's your temperament. What I see when I look at that chart is that something drastically changed in 2021, and based on that change, I have no reason to believe that all of that data from 2002 to 2018 will be very relevant going forward. Whatever the market is now and wherever it's heading, it's a fundamentally different thing than it was in 2004.

In addition to smaller supply, these types of books, the JIM 89 in particular, are not speculator fodder and are therefore not going to be subject to the volatility associated with all that speculation. Collectors pay more than speculators because they're usually making a long-term play; books are bought to build runs, not flip in 6 months. Even on something like ASM 9 which might draw speculator attention, they're not going to compete at the 9.4 level with so many collectors lining up to get that book for their run. Those collectors got their ASM 194s ages ago, or they're just not prioritizing them because they know they can always get one later. Even "blue chip" books suffer when they're highly speculated on, like lower-mid grade AF 15s.

It's okay to clean (and press) a comic because collectors and grading companies like money.

Steamy hot takes in this thread. This is a market where people pay thousands for random variants of books published yesterday, and people are picking on Hulk 181 and ASM 300. Isn't there a Dell Otto ASM variant that sold for like 40 grand?

Fair enough, and I wouldn't presume to tell anyone how they should feel about the guy. Most people suck at letting the evidence guide them to the conclusion; the conclusion is decided beforehand, and evidence is used selectively to support that preexisting view. People who make content have an incentive to push narratives they know will resonate with their audience, and people sure do love conspiracies, especially involving large companies. So it can be very tempting and rewarding to skip a few steps in the chain of reasoning. People are still posting that original Karl Jobst video, despite the errors you, and I and others have pointed out, because the narrative resonates with certain people. That's why it went viral. It's hard to get at the truth, but it's easy to come up with a theory that sounds plausible. At the same time, I try not to dismiss someone completely just because their reasoning is wrong. I think there's a big difference between being wrong in good faith, and intentional deception. I try to save my ire for the more deceptive types, and I don't get that vibe from this guy.