CGC 'guarantees' nothing other than your book was viewed by three people.
They don't even guarantee that a book in a Universal label is unrestored.
Just that it was viewed by three people.
Semantics.
They provide a risk mitigating service, whether by guaranty or inspection by professionals the effect is the same, increased disclosure/certainty/knowledge.
And I would counter that an honest, ethical, knowledgeable dealer can give just as good a service.
In fact, with certain honest, ethical, knowledgeable dealers, you might well get increased disclosure.
Cgc offers a risk mitigation service.
Whenever I read a study, the first thing I do is find out who funded the research.
That will pretty much get you the nitty gritty merits of the study without spending a second of wasted time reading how theory/science is used in a predetermined way to achieve a desired outcome.
When you apply this to the certification model in the comic hobby, look at what CGC did to mitigate resistance.
That model (which was hugely successful because of the people involved) is what makes the present certification model both accepted and coherent.
It is a model that doesn't bear any resemblance to what you are describing, and the only way I see it is a business evolving with a plan (developed by the multi-faceted operation with investment in multiple categories) to mitigate the kind of harmful resistance which might effect its viability.
What?
So you don't think that individuals pay premiums for Cgc books because they feel that they know with a higher degree of certainty what the book is?
Because that is my argument.