The Lost Copies? How many GA Keys are Floating 'round Unkown!

[mr.schomburg]

I just curious how many GA keys are ungraded out of circulation in permanant collections. Also how the proliferation of the internet, along with undiscovered Gold could change the values of Golden age keys.

 

Do you guys think there is another 20% or maybe even higher of these hidden treasures. Take Action 1, census indicates about 33 copies. Is the real number available, or at least in existance around 40 or is it closer to 80? If so, could this mean a lowering of prices, or is the demand so great for Action1's and Tec 27's that even doubling the count would only boost the prices.

 

Really I am just curious to thoughts, and maybe even known copies that are not in circulation or in known collections.

 

Schommy

[Silver Surfer]

Paul great question as I have wondered about the true scarcity of a number of issues. When I look at some of the books that received Gerber ratings 5-6 yet you almost never see them for sale yet Gerber was able to compile this data pre internet you have to wonder where all these books are. Recent collection like Crippen's and that Janzen guy has provided new top census examples so there are obviously hidden treasures out there. I'm a big collector of Canadian Timley prints and I wish I that was more data available that deals with their scarcity.

[ft88]

That is intriguing, I also wonder how many ubber keys are still undiscovered or in collectios that are long forgotten. ie copies that are still available but at risk of being lost for good.

[action1kid]

We can only instinctively guess.The census is in its infancy and is no where near accuarate but the census can give you an idea of which books are scarcer than others.

[mr.schomburg]

For instance I know a Stunning unrestored Action 1, as well as a full run of Detective inclusive of a VF 27 ®, but the other pre-robins are stunning unrestored in the VF or better range inclusive of a NM 38. This is only the tip of this particular collection which may never be for sale and most certainly not graded. I can't help but think there are more than a few of these treasure chests lying around undiscovered by us geeks.

[seank]

I think there's lots of great GA books hidden away in long-term collections. GA collectors seem to be more long-term type of people, less interested in making a quick flip or upgrade and more into enjoying the books for what they are. Take a look at Bangzoom's collection. 100% raw and un-censused, I believe.

 

The related question is how many unknown high grade v. low grade copies are out there? What kind of effect on the market would the availability of a blue label Action 1 in 9.2 have v. the sudden availability of ten new blue label Action 1s in 2.5-4.0?

[mr.schomburg]

We can only instinctively guess.The census is in its infancy and is no where near accuarate but the census can give you an idea of which books are scarcer than others.

 

The problem is we need a registry along with the census. So that if a book is sold and then cracked and reslabbed it can be tracked. I for one have no problem with this, but I would guess many would have. Its very possible that most of the CGC totals are off due to resubmissions, not so important on a Avengers 1 in mid grade, but on a Suspense 3, Action 1, Cap 74, Amazing Mystery Funnies just about any issue and a mirade of others every issue counts and can mean the difference of a lot of coin.

[ft88]

I am sure the market would absorb either one of those examples. Superman #1 is rising in price pretty good and a few Action #1's would have no problem finding buyers as long as they weren't just dumped on the market.

 

Ed

[mr.schomburg]

When I say Registry, I mean a file base where once a book is graded the customer is noted and then cross referenced.

[G.A.tor]

I am sure the market would absorb either one of those examples. Superman #1 is rising in price pretty good and a few Action #1's would have no problem finding buyers as long as they weren't just dumped on the market.

 

Ed

[mr.schomburg]

Hi Rickie!

Paul

[adamstrange]

We can only instinctively guess.The census is in its infancy and is no where near accuarate but the census can give you an idea of which books are scarcer than others.

 

The problem is we need a registry along with the census. So that if a book is sold and then cracked and reslabbed it can be tracked. I for one have no problem with this, but I would guess many would have. Its very possible that most of the CGC totals are off due to resubmissions, not so important on a Avengers 1 in mid grade, but on a Suspense 3, Action 1, Cap 74, Amazing Mystery Funnies just about any issue and a mirade of others every issue counts and can mean the difference of a lot of coin.

 

As I understand it the Coin and Sports Card censuses do not have the accuracy that you are looking for so it's definitely going to be a stretch for comics to be more accurate. We are not immune from the forces that make it difficult to get any reasonable level of precision and if not's an expensive book (like Action 1 etc) it's going to take a long time for the census to fill out. When CGC first started I was expecting it to take 10 years for the types of books that I'm interested in to show up in enough volume in the census but lately I'm thinking that's it's really at least 10 years from today since I often go after 50s lower dollar value books and the census data on that is very sparse. Centaurman has done some very clever predictive modeling around a scarcity index that takes in data from a variety of sources, only one of which is the census so there are solutions.

[blueboyph-migration]

For instance I know a Stunning unrestored Action 1, as well as a full run of Detective inclusive of a VF 27 ®, but the other pre-robins are stunning unrestored in the VF or better range inclusive of a NM 38. This is only the tip of this particular collection which may never be for sale and most certainly not graded. I can't help but think there are more than a few of these treasure chests lying around undiscovered by us geeks.

 

[whetteon]

I remember a huge Golden Age find in Wichita KS three years ago with about 50 nicely graded books. So there are still a few undiscovered beauties but the reality is those undiscovered books are getting fewer and farther between.

 

I too have pondered Gerber's scarcity numbers. Especially since I've seen evidence against 4's as well as 8's. Near as I could figure out, Mr Gerber must of relied heavily on gut instinct and his follow collectors opinions for such numbers.

[seank]

I remember a huge Golden Age find in Wichita KS three years ago with about 50 nicely graded books. So there are still a few undiscovered beauties but the reality is those undiscovered books are getting fewer and farther between.

 

I too have pondered Gerber's scarcity numbers. Especially since I've seen evidence against 4's as well as 8's. Near as I could figure out, Mr Gerber must of relied heavily on gut instinct and his follow collectors opinions for such numbers.

 

The Gerber numbers, I'm findings, are at best a loose guide. Also, they don't take into consideration grade. There many be 500 copies of a book out there, but how many are 6.0 or better? And do coverless copies count for Gerber scarcity purposes?

[Silver Surfer]

Good points. This is where the census data is probably fairly mature when it comes to identifying high grade GA scarcity and those that are restored vs unrestored.

[The Black Hand ®]

This subject has always intersted me. I also wonder how many stacks of comics still survive in closets and trunks and attics and basements. Think of all the homes of people in their 80's or older who may have coins and cards and comics and pulps and are just vaguely aware of what they have. A Terrific #5 hidden in an old drawer, or a Casper #1 on a closet shelf underneath a stack of Life Magazines. This country is full of treasure, it's too bad comics are so perishable. I can see why coin collecting is appealing.

[Big Daddy]

A person I work with who is in her sixties remembers her Parents buying comics for them as a kid and still has the collection. I picked up a price guide for her but her Dad won't go through them and keeps them hidden. They used to get a couple of issues every week during the 40's-50's and into the 60's. I just wonder what kind of beauties are in there.

[Silver Surfer]

That's a great story. Imagine how tempting it would be to seek out exactly what books are in that collection.

[Big Daddy]

Tell me about it. I ak her about once a month if they've looked at them yet. And she's worried if something happens to her Dad her siblings will grab and sell everything to the first bidder. That would be bad unless it was me. (thumbs u