Economic Slowdown - Any Impact on Golden Age Comics?

[1koko]

Or not, if I bought a great pre-Robin TEC instead.

 

Buy mine - up for sale in the Sales forum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously - the outlook in the market for 2009 is bad.

 

Areas of concern will:

1.) continue to be banks trying to consolidate their capital and therefore providing insufficient funds to sustain the economy.

 

2.) Insurance companies having guaranteed yields on policies that can't be sustained with current interest rates.

 

Putting my pessimistic hat on I don't see any recovery till mid 2010 at best.

 

 

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

 

[Bunky Brian]

 

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

[Bunky Brian]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

[1koko]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

 

 

Gator has been doing that for years - he enjoys the chase - once done he sells up (except for the must haves) and goes for the next run.

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Glad to see my thread came back to life after two months. I think it is still too early to make a call on what is going to happen with prices.

 

Someone posted that late SA, BA, CA and MA will take a hit and I couldn't agree more, look for bargains there if you are looking to pick up some books.

 

I still think that serious Golden Age collectors should look at the art / old car markets for clues as to where things might go with this. I still kick myself for passing up on a 'beautiful 67 Vette for $9K in the deep of the early 90's recession.

 

Jay (Innocuous) pointed out that other high value assets (real estate) will start to come back to life as prices drop and I couldn't agree more with that sentiment. I was perusing Realtor.com only yesterday to see what is going on with prices here in Southern California and the price drops are finally starting to show up.

 

So you might be seeing some serious material coming on the market as a way to raise capital for other investments. The rarity of some of this material is going to guarantee that the prices remain high though barring a total collapse of the economy which I don't see happening.

 

Glad everyone seems to be enjoying the thread!

 

[G.A.tor]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

 

 

Gator has been doing that for years - he enjoys the chase - once done he sells up (except for the must haves) and goes for the next run.

oh, if only I had 1koko's money

[G.A.tor]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

hangman 3

[Bunky Brian]

Gator my man, what is up out there in sunny Florida?

 

B

[Bunky Brian]

Yes, if I wait long enough into next year your Hangman will be mine for a fraction of the current price,

 

B

[1koko]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

 

 

Gator has been doing that for years - he enjoys the chase - once done he sells up (except for the must haves) and goes for the next run.

oh, if only I had 1koko's money

 

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%.

[showcase4]

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%.

 

Down to $358,000 in '09, 'eh George?

We feel your pain, man

[1koko]

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%.

 

Down to $358,000 in '09, 'eh George?

We feel your pain, man

 

no - down to a measly $500k

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[G.A.tor]

Gator my man, what is up out there in sunny Florida?

 

B

75 today, soaking in the sun (thumbs u

[G.A.tor]

Reason I've sold down comics - to date all comics I've purchased have been with spare cash - have reduced my cash budget for next year and therefore selling comics not on my must have list to fund purchases that are.

 

Here my friends is the crux of the uncoming "Stagnation" in our beloved hobby,a super point, that will play out with all of us, to some degree,

 

Bunky

 

Including the GATOR!

 

 

Gator has been doing that for years - he enjoys the chase - once done he sells up (except for the must haves) and goes for the next run.

oh, if only I had 1koko's money

 

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%.

and I am increasing mine by 100%, expecting LOTS of great books to come up for sale (thumbs u

[Silver Surfer]

Jay (Innocuous) pointed out that other high value assets (real estate) will start to come back to life as prices drop and I couldn't agree more with that sentiment. I was perusing Realtor.com only yesterday to see what is going on with prices here in Southern California and the price drops are finally starting to show up.

 

I'm not sure real estate will come back to life for a long, long time (years) which is a huge part of the problem. People will have less opportunity to consolidate debt as they are most likely under water with their home equity so the dominos will start to fall and it will be ugly as job loses mount. Add in the fact that banks are tighter than ever, I just don't see an easy way out of this.

[Silver Surfer]

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%. and I am increasing mine by 100%, expecting LOTS of great books to come up for sale (thumbs u

 

So am I, right now its zero.

[G.A.tor]

Reduced my cash budget for 2009 by 66%.

and I am increasing mine by 100%, expecting LOTS of great books to come up for sale (thumbs u

 

So am I, right now its zero. well, whether you reduce or increase, you are still at zero ...good call (thumbs u

[batman_fan]

Jay (Innocuous) pointed out that other high value assets (real estate) will start to come back to life as prices drop and I couldn't agree more with that sentiment. I was perusing Realtor.com only yesterday to see what is going on with prices here in Southern California and the price drops are finally starting to show up.

 

I'm not sure real estate will come back to life for a long, long time (years) which is a huge part of the problem. People will have less opportunity to consolidate debt as they are most likely under water with their home equity so the dominos will start to fall and it will be ugly as job loses mount. Add in the fact that banks are tighter than ever, I just don't see an easy way out of this.

 

If you believe some economist, there are still two more wave to this recession. The next one up is the variable ARM folks. This starts the serios ramp in 2010. The next one is the commercial real. market. The ARM folks will be close to the subprime in its impact. 2009 may be a better year than 2010.

[innocuous]

Sorry Frank, I didn't say real estate would come back so quickly. I meant that real estate would be a buying opportunity for those with the means to do so. Given that, I may curb comic buying for real estate, or, something else that has dropped. Then again, Adam is selling his collection.

[kimik]

Here is a question I have: What has happened to the collectibles market in Japan over the past 15 years or so since their bubbles burst?

 

Now, I am not saying that the US will follow suit, but if you look at the situations there are a lot of parallels to draw on. Talking with an economist freind the other day, he brought up the fact that if you look at the demographics, the US is moving towards the same point population age-wise Japan was when the bubble burst over there (damn baby boomers ruin everything everywhere ). Can anyone comment on this?

 

That being said, this is a different recession/depression since it is basically an unwinding of 25 (or more) years of debt driven economic growth. My gut tells me that this will not be a quick two or three year and done recession, but a longer lasting downturn with serious repurcussions (for instance, we have not felt the impact of all of the layoffs yet) that are yet to come. How much of the run up in comic prices (and collectibles in general) has been due to the growth in credit/debt over the past 25 years?

 

Since inflation is not an issue yet (but will be in time), my guess is that most GA comic prices will likely plateau or fall over the next couple of years as you are better off holding cash AND the supply of books increases with long time collectors selling off. This should present a good buying opportunity for all of us if/when it happens, but would you be better off putting your money to work in other asset classes instead?