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Economic Slowdown - Any Impact on Golden Age Comics?

Started by 50YrsCollctngCmcs,

232 posts in this topic

adamstrange

adamstrange

Posted
Posted

Now, I am not saying that the US will follow suit, but if you look at the situations there are a lot of parallels to draw on. Talking with an economist freind the other day, he brought up the fact that if you look at the demographics, the US is moving towards the same point population age-wise Japan was when the bubble burst over there (damn baby boomers ruin everything everywhere ). Can anyone comment on this

 

Japan has one of the lowest birthrates -- I think it's now at about 1.2 or 1.3 kids per woman. Despite the fact that our demographics today matches their's in 1989 doesn't mean that there is relevance since our population isn't collapsing like their's was and is. (Our growth rate is still close to the 2.1 replacement rate and there is much greater immigration than the miniscule amount Japan allows.)

 

Japan's population is skewing elderly very rapidly and it's no surprise that they invest so much in robotic research.

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Monkeyman

Monkeyman

Posted
Posted
Now, I am not saying that the US will follow suit, but if you look at the situations there are a lot of parallels to draw on. Talking with an economist freind the other day, he brought up the fact that if you look at the demographics, the US is moving towards the same point population age-wise Japan was when the bubble burst over there (damn baby boomers ruin everything everywhere :baiting: ). Can anyone comment on this?

 

Some people say that the US will not have a 20 year downturn like Japan because Americans will deal with the issues quickly. There has been little will in Japan to take the pain required to turn things around. Also, the US is open to immigration while Japan is not, so the Japanese have no way to deal with the aging of their population.

 

On the other hand, the American consumer is in pretty bad shape when it comes to debt while the Japanese have always had a high savings rate. It seems unlikely that the US can get out of this situation (same for the UK and some other countries) without devaluing the dollar and creating a lot of inflation.

 

Basically, the government is bailing out the people/companies that were irresponsible and the inflation they create will hurt the responsible people that have savings. The whole situation is a big joke. Gotta love politicians.

 

Mike

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

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The people holding ARM mortgages will be helped alittle by very low interest rates but I doubt many of them who bought in the last 2 years will want to carry a $500,000 mortgage when their house is maybe only worth maybe $325,000 today, they will walk away from it. I think the government is going to throw as much money as they can to get the economy going and save jobs but its unfortunantely going to be ugly for a while.

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Aman619

Aman619

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wont inflation raise prices of things like comics and art and keep up with inflation better than cash? The problem with inflation is that it makes you poorer because your money buys less. Unless because you spend more on everyday expenses you have less left over fpr nonessentials like comics. So Id think both will be in play. The good stuff will increase in price; common stuff will suffer.

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Monkeyman

Monkeyman

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wont inflation raise prices of things like comics and art and keep up with inflation better than cash? The problem with inflation is that it makes you poorer because your money buys less. Unless because you spend more on everyday expenses you have less left over fpr nonessentials like comics. So Id think both will be in play. The good stuff will increase in price; common stuff will suffer.

 

Normally during inflationary periods you want to be invested in hard assets - real estate, gold, stock of companies that can raise prices with inflation, etc... Comics and art are hard assets, but if inflation gets out of hand (as many predict) people will be struggling just to keep up with the rise in price of essentials. Savings will take a big hit in purchasing power, people will feel poorer and they will spend less on discretionary items. Since it is the marginal buyer that sets the price for comics at auction, just a few less bidders can affect prices a lot.

 

Mike

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mikeyboy9000

mikeyboy9000

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Normally during inflationary periods you want to be invested in hard assets - real estate, gold, stock of companies that can raise prices with inflation, etc... Comics and art are hard assets, but if inflation gets out of hand (as many predict) people will be struggling just to keep up with the rise in price of essentials. Savings will take a big hit in purchasing power, people will feel poorer and they will spend less on discretionary items. Since it is the marginal buyer that sets the price for comics at auction, just a few less bidders can affect prices a lot.

 

Mike

 

This is completely correct. Furthermore the u.s. seems to be headed from what i've been told towards one of the single worst positions possible. A recession in which inflation is rising. This means so much bad for you it's just not funny. Luckily in the modern day (even 20 years on from the asian economic crisis) we have much more effective tools to use against inflation and such things. I'm not sure if america adopts a monetary or fiscal policy towards inflation but i sure hope it's not thinking too far into throwing money at this recession till it goes away.

 

Also, as a side note, here in AU they recently gave every other man woman and child $1000 for xmas to spend, how sweet is that? Certainly improves the situation for everyone and helps stave off economic slowdown. I think the US will begin to really turn around in about a year to 18 months as government action really starts to take effect.

 

I suppose it's your own fault for having a home loan system where you can just hand over the keys to the house and walk away from the loan... 2c

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Monkeyman

Monkeyman

Posted
Posted

Normally during inflationary periods you want to be invested in hard assets - real estate, gold, stock of companies that can raise prices with inflation, etc... Comics and art are hard assets, but if inflation gets out of hand (as many predict) people will be struggling just to keep up with the rise in price of essentials. Savings will take a big hit in purchasing power, people will feel poorer and they will spend less on discretionary items. Since it is the marginal buyer that sets the price for comics at auction, just a few less bidders can affect prices a lot.

 

Mike

 

Also, as a side note, here in AU they recently gave every other man woman and child $1000 for xmas to spend, how sweet is that? Certainly improves the situation for everyone and helps stave off economic slowdown. I think the US will begin to really turn around in about a year to 18 months as government action really starts to take effect.

 

Giving the $1,000 may or may not be a good thing. If people spend it the economy will be helped immediately, but only for a very short time as the $1,000 isn't recurring revenue. In this scenario all the gouvernment is doing is using tax dollars to give stores a one-time revenue boost. If people use the $1,000 to pay down debt it won't have any immediate affect (although it will be good in the long run).

 

Unfortunately, this type of program is really just a socialist redistribution of wealth. If you are an above average tax payer (usually implying higher than average income earner) then you aren't receiving a share equivalent to what you paid in. In effect, your tax dollars are simply being given straight to below average tax payers (read below average income earners). Gouvernments would be much better off lowering taxes than providing handouts.

 

Mike

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esquirecomics

esquirecomics

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(shrug) I'll bite, who is she?

 

Tim, you've been living overseas for WAYYYYYYYYY too long!!!! lol

 

Valerie Plame Wilson. Former CIA covert operative. Allegedly outed by the White House in retaliation against her husband, former Ambassador Joe Wilson. Special investigation conducted by US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald.

 

 

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Yannis

Yannis

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Oh God please do not post pics of KGB (I don't know who Oleg is but...), my relatives were living in Europe during those days, and I am so glad that system is gone. Communist partisans almost killed my grandmother and my (then infant) father. In the balkans , back in those days there was no joy.

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esquirecomics

esquirecomics

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Oh God please do not post pics of KGB (I don't know who Oleg is but...), my relatives were living in Europe during those days, and I am so glad that system is gone. Communist partisans almost killed my grandmother and my (then infant) father. In the balkans , back in those days there was no joy.

 

Oleg was in charge of KGB operations here in the US in the 1980s. He is now a US citizen, and was tried in absentia for treason back in Russia and sentenced to 15 years in prison. Basically, he spilled a lot of beans to the USGOVT, though this is not publicly admitted.

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Primetime

Primetime

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One of my favorite questions.

 

The line between "prime" golden age and so-so golden age books, is in flux. When money tightens up, buyers will detail want list accordingly. Less A grade titles or characters will soften in demand and price.

 

On the other side, sellers who do not need to sell, will hold out, contrary to sellers who need to raise cash right now.

 

As I have said on another thread, I was amazed at the number of cool golden age books, with a recent 2008 sale, DROP in price, compared to 2005 prices ( on the same book). Based on the Heritage archieves.

 

Thoughts?

 

B

 

supply + demand=price...

 

if the economy is affecting both, and we are seeing an increase in supply (due to financial necessity) and we also see a decrease in demand (due to lack of funds), then price will drop...

 

however, as you mention, on "A" material, I believe supply will always be exceeded by demand and prices will always remain healthy, at the least

 

And with GA the "supply" is fixed, that is, there are only so many copies of a particular book out there...while the demand is what we "hope" will continue to be high (ie. Batman, Superman, Spidey will stay as social icons for generations to come) to keep prices high for investment and return (thumbs u

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