Economic Slowdown - Any Impact on Golden Age Comics?

[rob_allan]

Maybe the Coke Zero product placement was too blatant for them?

 

[G.A.tor]

but, as said, I never saw it aired or heard back from them

You`re just not as photogenic as Zaid.

I told them that, too...that I wouldn't be doing the network any favors

[G.A.tor]

Maybe the Coke Zero product placement was too blatant for them?

 

I actually did have a coke zero while filming, but only in between the shots they set up

[*paull*]

There is a huge amount of very high quality books for sale now on the Boards. Regardless of the reasons these sellers have for parting with the books, we're seeing good material for sale here like we haven't seen in quite a while.

[Bunky Brian]

One of my favorite questions.

 

The line between "prime" golden age and so-so golden age books, is in flux. When money tightens up, buyers will detail want list accordingly. Less A grade titles or characters will soften in demand and price.

 

On the other side, sellers who do not need to sell, will hold out, contrary to sellers who need to raise cash right now.

 

As I have said on another thread, I was amazed at the number of cool golden age books, with a recent 2008 sale, DROP in price, compared to 2005 prices ( on the same book). Based on the Heritage archieves.

 

Thoughts?

 

B

 

 

[G.A.tor]

One of my favorite questions.

 

The line between "prime" golden age and so-so golden age books, is in flux. When money tightens up, buyers will detail want list accordingly. Less A grade titles or characters will soften in demand and price.

 

On the other side, sellers who do not need to sell, will hold out, contrary to sellers who need to raise cash right now.

 

As I have said on another thread, I was amazed at the number of cool golden age books, with a recent 2008 sale, DROP in price, compared to 2005 prices ( on the same book). Based on the Heritage archieves.

 

Thoughts?

 

B

 

supply + demand=price...

 

if the economy is affecting both, and we are seeing an increase in supply (due to financial necessity) and we also see a decrease in demand (due to lack of funds), then price will drop...

 

however, as you mention, on "A" material, I believe supply will always be exceeded by demand and prices will always remain healthy, at the least

[Aman619]

there's also the adjustment to the new era of collecting: online sites, more auctions... Many of us have fallen 'prey" to overenthusiastic bidding when certain books we "need" first appear leading to bidding wars and much higher prices paid. Always makes me pine for when the worst you could do was pay an crazy price a dealer demanded, but not out-pay all other collectors at the same time!

 

This scenario explains IMO many of the price reductions for later books that come to market after the "demand" and "excitement of the first copy to appear in x years" has sold for mega-multiples.

 

As time goes on, the test will be if the books prices go back up based on quality, or new demand. Or inflation fueling ever higher "reasonable" price levels.

 

 

[kimik]

If next year is as bad as others are predicting/trying to brace us for (including Obama), then my bet is that more quality books come up for sale as collectors either need to raise cash to survive OR (most likely) decide to pare down their collections and raise funds to acquire a major book and/or invest in financial assets at discounted prices. Put me in the latter camp already, as my Action #14 that sold earlier this week is the last higher $$ book (> $1000 value) that I own. My gut feeling is that we will see a plateau/drop in prices of non-key/top tier GA and early SA books, and that late SA and BA/CA/MA prices will get hit fairly hard if the economic downturn persists.

[G.A.tor]

If next year is as bad as others are predicting/trying to brace us for (including Obama), then my bet is that more quality books come up for sale as collectors either need to raise cash to survive OR (most likely) decide to pare down their collections and raise funds to acquire a major book and/or invest in financial assets at discounted prices. Put me in the latter camp already, as my Action #14 that sold earlier this week is the last higher $$ book (> $1000 value) that I own. My gut feeling is that we will see a plateau/drop in prices of non-key/top tier GA and early SA books, and that late SA and BA/CA/MA prices will get hit fairly hard if the economic downturn persists.

[SuperBird]

all I see are prices steadily rising this year on all types of books I follow, despite the last few months...? True, the boards have some great stuff lately, but it all sells. Comiclink has not slowed down either. I see no reason why next year would b different, barring some catastrophe...

[Aman619]

If next year is as bad as others are predicting/trying to brace us for (including Obama), then my bet is that more quality books come up for sale as collectors either need to raise cash to survive OR (most likely) decide to pare down their collections and raise funds to acquire a major book and/or invest in financial assets at discounted prices. Put me in the latter camp already, as my Action #14 that sold earlier this week is the last higher $$ book (> $1000 value) that I own. My gut feeling is that we will see a plateau/drop in prices of non-key/top tier GA and early SA books, and that late SA and BA/CA/MA prices will get hit fairly hard if the economic downturn persists.

 

its impossible to tell the motive of the seller, but Ive seen some very nice books popping up on Comiclink of late. Could be related to a need to sell. Or not. Could be year end tax planning, amassing some capital gains to offset losses.

[Aman619]

all I see are prices steadily rising this year on all types of books I follow, despite the last few months...? True, the boards have some great stuff lately, but it all sells. Comiclink has not slowed down either. I see no reason why next year would b different, barring some catastrophe...

 

I agree and couldn't have said it better. At the same time, how come every time I READ optimistic comments like this I I get a little worried we are all just too darned Pollyannaish! Prancing giddily with our blinders on ... "It cant happen here.."

[SuperBird]

If next year is as bad as others are predicting/trying to brace us for (including Obama), then my bet is that more quality books come up for sale as collectors either need to raise cash to survive OR (most likely) decide to pare down their collections and raise funds to acquire a major book and/or invest in financial assets at discounted prices. Put me in the latter camp already, as my Action #14 that sold earlier this week is the last higher $$ book (> $1000 value) that I own. My gut feeling is that we will see a plateau/drop in prices of non-key/top tier GA and early SA books, and that late SA and BA/CA/MA prices will get hit fairly hard if the economic downturn persists.

 

its impossible to tell the motive of the seller, but Ive seen some very nice books popping up on Comiclink of late. Could be related to a need to sell. Or not. Could be year end tax planning, amassing some capital gains to offset losses.

 

also, at some point, people may just decide they don't want to own something. People move in and out of hobbies all the time. It doesn't need to be a sign of the times.

 

[Aman619]

unless of course it is.

[showcase4]

all I see are prices steadily rising this year on all types of books I follow, despite the last few months...? True, the boards have some great stuff lately, but it all sells. Comiclink has not slowed down either. I see no reason why next year would b different, barring some catastrophe...

 

I agree and couldn't have said it better. At the same time, how come every time I READ optimistic comments like this I I get a little worried we are all just too darned Pollyannaish! Prancing giddily with our blinders on ... "It cant happen here.."

 

the healthiest thing for any market is slow, controlled growth. Look at real estate (my livelihood)....everything was fine when houses appreciated 6% per year on average......then all of a sudden 25% --- not healthy / problems / partial collapse / major price corrections.

 

All I want for all of us (back to comics now) would be continued, reasonable, controlled growth year after year after year. If comics start to double in value every 6 months........look out / that is a skyscraper being built on a very weak foundation

[Bunky Brian]

"the healthiest thing for any market is slow, controlled growth. Look at real estate (my livelihood)....everything was fine when houses appreciated 6% per year on average......then all of a sudden 25% --- not healthy / problems / partial collapse / major price corrections."

 

 

Great point !

 

B

 

[Deucedriver]

Here is an analogy from the collector car market that might serve all well if things get really ugly economically over the next few years. Dusenbergs that today sell in excess of $1Million and custom Packards and Cadillacs that will easily bring multiples of $100's of thousands today could be bought for $100 or less in the late thirties, forties and into the fifties.

 

It isn't an exact analogy as these cars had arguably not entered the collector market yet; but for those with an eye to quality the intrinsic value was there. Similarly, a reduction in prices on Golden Age over the short term might yield significant gains in the long term when the economy recovers.

 

I did a lot of research on this subject when I was doing my Masters work. It was prompted by a comment in a finance book about the flight to hard assets during economic declines. Here is some data (the first two returns are for a basket of 10 key Golden Age comics):

 

Average Return 1971-2002 26.49%

Average Return 1980-2002 18.09%

 

Average NYSE Return 1972-2002 9.53%

Average CPI 1972-2002 5.06

Average CPI 1980-2002 4.48

 

S+P 500 AVG 1972-2002 9.85%

 

In the early 1990's when the S+P lost 8% year over year, the basket of comics gained almost 39% (1991). In 1992 the S+P gained 27% and basket of comics gained 11%.

 

If you look at the Overstreet Guide there was a huge increase in price for these comics from 1971-1980. If the Guide values are anywhere in the ballpark, a lot of this was probably due to the "Guide" itself. Comics became more of an accepted collectible and more people started collecting and following them. After 1980 the market seemed to mature.

 

Also, many of the key Golden Age comics are so scarce and lightly traded it's hard to come up with an accurate value. After 2002 we also saw many Guide prices go out the window as slabbed books sold for a premium.

 

It's impossible to cover all the issues about this topic in a post, but it's fun to speculate. The question I have is how deep is this recession going to be? It seems like GA books are holding their value fairly well for now, but there comes a point when the recession gets deep enough that the value will collapse. If only I had a crystal ball.

 

As far as the older collectors selling their books to bolster their 401k's, if the person is afraid of a complete collapse, now would probably be the time to sell them and covert the cash into another store of value (other than funny books) to survive coming hyperinflation. Of the hard assets that will have value in a depression, I would think comic books would be low on the list.

 

I do agree that the extremely scarce "ultra keys" have the best chance of keeping their value, and if this is a short recession many will flee their lesser books, creating a buying opportunity.

 

Great thread!

[G.A.tor]

I would love a 50% decrease across the board so I could buy up a bunch of great books I can currently afford

[innocuous]

I agree with many of the points here. I think next year will be very good for buyers. However, what to buy will be a big question. Here in So. Cal. I would kick myself in 5 years if I don't buy investment property with the lower prices and cheap interest rates. Or not, if I bought a great pre-Robin TEC instead.

[Bunky Brian]

I did a lot of research on this subject when I was doing my Masters work. It was prompted by a comment in a finance book about the flight to hard assets during economic declines. Here is some data (the first two returns are for a basket of 10 key Golden Age comics):

 

Average Return 1971-2002 26.49%

Average Return 1980-2002 18.09%

 

Average NYSE Return 1972-2002 9.53%

Average CPI 1972-2002 5.06

Average CPI 1980-2002 4.48

 

S+P 500 AVG 1972-2002 9.85%

 

In the early 1990's when the S+P lost 8% year over year, the basket of comics gained almost 39% (1991). In 1992 the S+P gained 27% and basket of comics gained 11%.

 

If you look at the Overstreet Guide there was a huge increase in price for these comics from 1971-1980. If the Guide values are anywhere in the ballpark, a lot of this was probably due to the "Guide" itself. Comics became more of an accepted collectible and more people started collecting and following them. After 1980 the market seemed to mature.

 

Also, many of the key Golden Age comics are so scarce and lightly traded it's hard to come up with an accurate value. After 2002 we also saw many Guide prices go out the window as slabbed books sold for a premium.

 

It's impossible to cover all the issues about this topic in a post, but it's fun to speculate. The question I have is how deep is this recession going to be? It seems like GA books are holding their value fairly well for now, but there comes a point when the recession gets deep enough that the value will collapse. If only I had a crystal ball.

 

As far as the older collectors selling their books to bolster their 401k's, if the person is afraid of a complete collapse, now would probably be the time to sell them and covert the cash into another store of value (other than funny books) to survive coming hyperinflation. Of the hard assets that will have value in a depression, I would think comic books would be low on the list.

 

I do agree that the extremely scarce "ultra keys" have the best chance of keeping their value, and if this is a short recession many will flee their lesser books, creating a buying opportunity.

 

Great thread! Great Data, Thanks for posting, Bunky