Economic Slowdown - Any Impact on Golden Age Comics?

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Let's hope those Bangzoom's who have been quietly sitting on Gold use these times to start letting them out into the market. There are probably more collections like this than many people realize. Quiet collector's from the early days of the hobby who accumulated golden age and have not slabbed them because they just like looking at them.

 

Hard economic times always bring with opportunity for those who are willing to take the chance on investing their money.

[Timely]

The GA collectors I know who have the really good stuff are on the older side.

 

[adamstrange]

Let's hope those Bangzoom's who have been quietly sitting on Gold use these times to start letting them out into the market. There are probably more collections like this than many people realize. Quiet collector's from the early days of the hobby who accumulated golden age and have not slabbed them because they just like looking at them.

 

Hard economic times always bring with opportunity for those who are willing to take the chance on investing their money.

 

 

I'm sure there are collections that are intact and relatively unknown. BZ, however, has posted on the boards that when he inquired about a number of formerly well-known collections he found out they had all been sold.

[sfcityduck]

"Agreed. How many other Bangzooms' are there in this world. (Well, no one can come close to BZ's collection, but maybe mini-BZs.)"

 

For example, the guy who posted the VF+ Action 1 on ebay that took a lot of people by surprise a while back also has almost all of the other ten most valuable GA books, and, I believe, a complete run of Detective (I know for certain it is complete from 27 up and I believe he also collects the earlier issues), amongst other GA keys. He started collecting in the 60s and opened his comic shop in the very early 70s (1971?). There is no reason to think he's slabbed any of his books. And at some point he's gonna look at retirement, and will, I suspect, start selling his books. I always thought his story was fairly typical of the guys who have extensive GA collections, but maybe I'm wrong.

[Primetime]

I'm in my early 30s, and I starting collecting GA 13 years ago (thumbs u

[adamstrange]

"Agreed. How many other Bangzooms' are there in this world. (Well, no one can come close to BZ's collection, but maybe mini-BZs.)"

 

For example, the guy who posted the VF+ Action 1 on ebay that took a lot of people by surprise a while back also has almost all of the other ten most valuable GA books, and, I believe, a complete run of Detective (I know for certain it is complete from 27 up and I believe he also collects the earlier issues), amongst other GA keys. He started collecting in the 60s and opened his comic shop in the very early 70s (1971?). There is no reason to think he's slabbed any of his books. And at some point he's gonna look at retirement, and will, I suspect, start selling his books. I always thought his story was fairly typical of the guys who have extensive GA collections, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

That Action 1 was "known" and even written up in the 80s and has been restored since then. Extremely attractive, yes, but not quite the example of a spectacular original find. Even when these collections show up will be like the Crescent City copies or like "More Fun" collection with a smattering of killer copies amongst runs of mid and low grade (and restored copies)? Nor should we forget that it was popular to bind copies to provide a handsome method of display that would be easy to read.

[jbcomicbox]

There have been a few polls recently and most were in the 35 year range.

 

R.

 

I honestly feel what you are saying (I'm 37), but does everyone really think that this board represents the majority of GA collectors??

 

In my experience, most GA collectors don't even buy slabs!

 

Again, just my

 

 

 

 

What are slabs?

 

jon

[Socratic Wonder]

There have been a few polls recently and most were in the 35 year range.

 

R.

 

I honestly feel what you are saying (I'm 37), but does everyone really think that this board represents the majority of GA collectors??

 

In my experience, most GA collectors don't even buy slabs!

 

Again, just my

 

 

 

 

What are slabs?

 

jon

 

[rjpb]

Unfortunately ( or fortunately if one is in a buying mood) I think four figure and up GA is going to be hurting in the short run. Between older collectors deciding to cash out (especially after seeing their retirement portfolios take a hit) and younger ones worried about their income, the liquidation of collections (at least in part), combined with a reluctance to pull the trigger on higher dollar books, will result in a softening of prices for most more expensive books. Sure, there will always be exceptions, but I wouldn't count on the big books to weather the storm any better than average.

 

Unless the coming recession gets really bad ( not as unlikely as we hope ), I'm guessing under $500 books with solid appeal ( lower grade Timelys & MLJs, classic covers, higher demand PCH, GGA, etc) will still sell at current prices (though dramatic increases are unlikely) as collectors will still look to satisfy their collecting jones'. More run of the mill stuff may suffer as impulse buys will be down.

[Limited66]

Unfortunately ( or fortunately if one is in a buying mood) I think four figure and up GA is going to be hurting in the short run. Between older collectors deciding to cash out (especially after seeing their retirement portfolios take a hit) and younger ones worried about their income, the liquidation of collections (at least in part), combined with a reluctance to pull the trigger on higher dollar books, will result in a softening of prices for most more expensive books. Sure, there will always be exceptions, but I wouldn't count on the big books to weather the storm any better than average.

 

Unless the coming recession gets really bad ( not as unlikely as we hope ), I'm guessing under $500 books with solid appeal ( lower grade Timelys & MLJs, classic covers, higher demand PCH, GGA, etc) will still sell at current prices (though dramatic increases are unlikely) as collectors will still look to satisfy their collecting jones'. More run of the mill stuff may suffer as impulse buys will be down.

 

So four-figure GA books are going to get less expensive? God I hope so because it would give younger collectors a shot at acquiring a nice collection, but what about all this hype about books selling for record highs during the stock declines?

[sfcityduck]

That Action 1 was "known" and even written up in the 80s and has been restored since then. Extremely attractive, yes, but not quite the example of a spectacular original find.

 

I didn't say it was "unknown," I remember when he bought it in 1980 or 1981, and I read the articles on the then record-breaking purchase at the time. Instead, I said it was a surprise to many. And it was, because it's been sitting in a safety deposit since 1980 and many folks around here didn't know about it or forgot about it. That was quite evident from the threads on the ebay listing.

 

The point you miss, and the point I'm making, is NOT that we're going to see a bunch of Edgar Church collections emerge. But that the hard core GA collectors (not investors) who bought things like Action 1 back 20 to 40+ years ago and have been sitting on their collections may start bringing this stuff back out to market.

 

As for your comment that the Action 1 that was listed on ebay with much fanfare has been "restored since then" (its purchase), I'm not sure what you base that comment on as its contrary to the owners statements.

[sfcityduck]

but what about all this hype about books selling for record highs during the stock declines?

 

I have more experience in other markets. And it is true that people looking to invest might tend to put their money into collectibles in a down stock market. Is this true when we're facing the kind of economic troubles we're presently facing? Who can know given that the present troubles are fairly unprecedented. Presumably, its too early to answer that question. I assume the answer will be clearer in six months or so.

 

All I know is that 401Ks have lost $3 trillion in value. This might, might, I speculate, have an impact on older collectors (expecially the guys who aren't rich, the kind who bought their books way back before the prices hit their present rarefied heights) who may have been sitting on their collections until they neared retirement.

 

I look forward to seeing what folks say on this topic in six months or so.

[rjpb]

Unfortunately ( or fortunately if one is in a buying mood) I think four figure and up GA is going to be hurting in the short run. Between older collectors deciding to cash out (especially after seeing their retirement portfolios take a hit) and younger ones worried about their income, the liquidation of collections (at least in part), combined with a reluctance to pull the trigger on higher dollar books, will result in a softening of prices for most more expensive books. Sure, there will always be exceptions, but I wouldn't count on the big books to weather the storm any better than average.

 

Unless the coming recession gets really bad ( not as unlikely as we hope ), I'm guessing under $500 books with solid appeal ( lower grade Timelys & MLJs, classic covers, higher demand PCH, GGA, etc) will still sell at current prices (though dramatic increases are unlikely) as collectors will still look to satisfy their collecting jones'. More run of the mill stuff may suffer as impulse buys will be down.

 

So four-figure GA books are going to get less expensive? God I hope so because it would give younger collectors a shot at acquiring a nice collection, but what about all this hype about books selling for record highs during the stock declines?

 

As sfcityduck mentions - this downturn is unprecedented. It's not just a stock market downturn - nearly everything is losing value, and personal concern about continuing to pull in a decent income no matter what one does for a living is nearly universal, so tying up cash in more difficult to liquidate assets like collectibles is not going to be popular. Also the last stock market crash coincided with the beginning of GCG grading - so whatever effect it might of had was probably masked by the renewed confidence collectors had in the grade and lack of resto when buying.

[adamstrange]

The point you miss, and the point I'm making, is NOT that we're going to see a bunch of Edgar Church collections emerge. But that the hard core GA collectors (not investors) who bought things like Action 1 back 20 to 40+ years ago and have been sitting on their collections may start bringing this stuff back out to market.

 

I didn't miss the point but wanted to remind the viewers out there in TV Land that when previously understood to be "fabulous" collections are revealed they aren't always as fabulous as they were thought to be back in the day. Grading standards have changed, restoration is viewed differently and is caught with greater reliability because of CGC and books have been damaged (re: a number of McLaughlin's Church copies were water damaged). This is true of books in my collection and has been confirmed by a few other long time collectors on the boards.

 

As for your comment that the Action 1 that was listed on ebay with much fanfare has been "restored since then" (its purchase), I'm not sure what you base that comment on as its contrary to the owners statements.

 

I recall a tear seal being mentioned but perhaps someone can dredge up the old thread that has the details about the book.

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Here is an analogy from the collector car market that might serve all well if things get really ugly economically over the next few years. Dusenbergs that today sell in excess of $1Million and custom Packards and Cadillacs that will easily bring multiples of $100's of thousands today could be bought for $100 or less in the late thirties, forties and into the fifties.

 

It isn't an exact analogy as these cars had arguably not entered the collector market yet; but for those with an eye to quality the intrinsic value was there. Similarly, a reduction in prices on Golden Age over the short term might yield significant gains in the long term when the economy recovers.

[tabcom]

It has been 2 months since this thread has last been commented on. It's also been about that long since I last logged on -- my 9 month old son being my new favorite superhero.

 

I read the cgcnews blog this morning 'Comics as an investment?'. The use of a question mark is appropriate.

 

The October 3, 2008, Wall Street Journal’s front page story by Jennifer Levitz was titled, “When Stocks Tank, Some Investors Stampede to Alpacas and Turn to Drink.” The subtitle posed the question, “Can Comic-Book Index Outpace the Market?” The article discussed hard assets like coins and comic books as potential stores for value in inflationary times. Regarding comics, it noted that “The ‘Silver Age Comic Book Pricing Index’ of 32 frequently traded ‘60s comics, was up 14.2% in the 18 months ending in July, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 11% in the same period.” Mark Haspel, president of Certified Guaranty Company, then commented on CGC’s increased business in 2008 and his quote ended the article. Mark concluded, “Spider-Man is going to be here in 20 years – he’s not going away.”

 

I'm always skeptical of back dated indexes. A truer picture of the market would be from September 15 thru December 15.

 

In addition, the blog also had this:

 

The November 2008 issue of the magazine Art & Auction, a major international lifestyle magazine, ran an article by Douglas Wolk titled “Holy Six-Figure Prices!” It describes the appeal of classic comics and the robust market for them, stating “collectors may be driven by a childhood fascination with a favorite character, the prestige of owning a powerful cultural totem or the pleasure of having access to a cartoonist’s oeuvre. Or they may just appreciate lucrative investments.” The author places the establishment of CGC as a key point in the development of the comic book market and states that CGC grading has “made the high-end back-issue market much more active – since virtually all valuable comics sold at auction are now slabbed, buyers know exactly what they’re getting.” The article also points out that CGC “maintains online documentation of the grade of every comic book it has ever slabbed – more than a million to date – so collectors have readily available a reasonable estimation of exactly how common or scarce every sought-after comic is and of the condition of every extant copy.”

 

Links to the complete 'Art & Auction' article (nothing in it that will surprise anyone on this board):

 

http://www.cgccomics.com/news/enews/2008/December/images/ph_mainstream%20comics_1.jpg

 

http://www.cgccomics.com/news/enews/2008/December/images/ph_mainstream%20comics_2.jpg

 

 

[G.A.tor]

you know what is funny, is that Wall Street Article prompted a CBS evening news reporter to contact Mark about comics as an investment... Mark then was kind enough to use me as a collector/investor example, and I actually had CBS in my home, filming for about an hour, myself and my son and some comics that I was told would be used on CBS nightly news...

 

I saw a printed article from CBS about it that had one quote from me, but never got word that they were going to air the footage, or never heard back from them about it...

 

my "best example" I used in the interview was that in Dec of last year, I bought a certain comic for $X...

by July of this year, I received an offer for that comic at $X +30%...I compared that sale, to putting the same $X in the stock market last Dec, in which my "investment" would have been worth approx $X -45% at the time of the comic book sale... that is a 75% swing, on a "big" $ deal...

 

but, as said, I never saw it aired or heard back from them

[tth2]

but, as said, I never saw it aired or heard back from them

You`re just not as photogenic as Zaid.

[nearmint]

Maybe the Coke Zero product placement was too blatant for them?

[tabcom]

my "best example" I used in the interview was that in Dec of last year, I bought a certain comic for $X...

by July of this year, I received an offer for that comic at $X +30%

 

Thanks for the post.

 

The new 911 is 915. The world changed after September 15th. What we all should be focusing on is the comic book market post-915.