Is the Overstreet outdated when it comes to pricing???

[Forsythe P Jones]

The old platitude that "it's just a guide" is correct - at one time it may have been more accurate, but like with most hobbies you now need to learn about the market as a whole along with breaking trends and then use the guide as one barometer amongst many to appraise books.

 

OPG has always had its shortcomings, but with the market being as mercurial as it has been these last 5 - 10 years you can't rely on it solely. You need a variety of other sources.

 

Now that I put a user on ignore, (theres a first time for everything) I can reread statements from users that matter and this one sums up this threads question correctly!

 

I'm not a fast typist so my statements always come out briefer than I intend them to.

 

I regret posting my opinion on this thread to begin with. but I might be qualified I have 11 years experience buying and selling on ebay plus 30 years experience working in a comic store!

 

I aplogize to the forum for letting one user push my buttons, no one is a hundred percent right and people who think they are just bug me!

 

 

[thehumantorch]

I remember when Overstreet was all there was. My dog eared copys back to #4 show how much time I spent looking up prices and reading the articles. The guide certainly tells us nothing about the ultra high grade books that are selling for huge multiples of 9.2. I've heard that Bob Overstreet did not want to drop prices too much based on sales data if he thought it would hurt the market.

 

I also heard complaints many years ago that the guide was self fulfilling. Advisors and dealers would increase prices each year, report those prices to Overstreet and the guide would reflect that raise each year.

 

The guide will always be the bible to me, I consider the Overstreet guide to be the biggest thing to happen to comic collecting up until the internet.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The old platitude that "it's just a guide" is correct - at one time it may have been more accurate, but like with most hobbies you now need to learn about the market as a whole along with breaking trends and then use the guide as one barometer amongst many to appraise books.

 

OPG has always had its shortcomings, but with the market being as mercurial as it has been these last 5 - 10 years you can't rely on it solely. You need a variety of other sources.

 

Now that I put a user on ignore, (theres a first time for everything) I can reread statements from users that matter and this one sums up this threads question correctly!

 

I'm not a fast typist so my statements always come out briefer than I intend them to.

 

I regret posting my opinion on this thread to begin with. but I might be qualified I have 11 years experience buying and selling on ebay plus 30 years experience working in a comic store!

 

I aplogize to the forum for letting one user push my buttons, no one is a hundred percent right and people who think they are just bug me!

 

 

My biggest beef with Overstreet is that it has remained very complacent about remaining "just a Guide". Where is the data mining? Where is the research? Where is the actual work of putting together a Guide based on actual sales figures as opposed to the "add 10% and see you next year" approach to defining values?

 

To me, its kinda like the old-timer who is counting down to his pension and feels he doesn't need to adapt to the new workplace. For a book I used to eagerly await every year, it has become more and more disappointing as I've become more educated about the market.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Reading through this thread I can't understand why it turned nasty. Can't we just have a logical discussion about Overstreet prices and get along?

 

I can. Forsyth P. Jones didn't agree with my assertion, and when challenged, didn't like that I provided evidence to prove it. Because I proved my assertion, I became a "know it all."

 

It seems there are a few people...not many, but a few...on this board who cannot have a logical discussion without becoming emotionally involved (read: angry) at people they don't agree with, especially if those people "prove them wrong." Takes all kinds, I guess.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The old platitude that "it's just a guide" is correct - at one time it may have been more accurate, but like with most hobbies you now need to learn about the market as a whole along with breaking trends and then use the guide as one barometer amongst many to appraise books.

 

OPG has always had its shortcomings, but with the market being as mercurial as it has been these last 5 - 10 years you can't rely on it solely. You need a variety of other sources.

 

Now that I put a user on ignore, (theres a first time for everything) I can reread statements from users that matter and this one sums up this threads question correctly!

 

I'm not a fast typist so my statements always come out briefer than I intend them to.

 

I regret posting my opinion on this thread to begin with. but I might be qualified I have 11 years experience buying and selling on ebay plus 30 years experience working in a comic store!

 

I aplogize to the forum for letting one user push my buttons, no one is a hundred percent right and people who think they are just bug me!

 

 

 

You challenged me, in reference to an assertion I made.

 

I accepted that challenge, and met your requirements.

 

You then argued with those results, so I provided more evidence to meet your requirements.

 

You then came up with all sorts of insults about people who "think they're always right" and "you don't know everything" when none of that was in play, all the while refusing to acknowledge the proof that met your challenge.

 

So, tell me...whose buttons were being pushed by whom...?

 

No one said anyone could rely solely on the OPG. The original question of this thread was "is the guide correct?" My answer is a resounding no, and hasn't been for years, and then provided copious amounts of evidence and arguments to prove that assertion. If you don't agree, fine, don't agree. Prove me wrong with evidence, don't try and shout me down with insults and passive/aggressive plays for sympathy.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

My biggest beef with Overstreet is that it has remained very complacent about remaining "just a Guide". Where is the data mining? Where is the research? Where is the actual work of putting together a Guide based on actual sales figures as opposed to the "add 10% and see you next year" approach to defining values?

 

To me, its kinda like the old-timer who is counting down to his pension and feels he doesn't need to adapt to the new workplace. For a book I used to eagerly await every year, it has become more and more disappointing as I've become more educated about the market.

 

This is exactly my view of the book as well. It seems like the last time anyone really worked on the Guide was the early 90's, and then, because of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, Bob and staff just sort of gave up with regards to making a guide that reflects the market.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The guide will always be the bible to me, I consider the Overstreet guide to be the biggest thing to happen to comic collecting up until the internet.

 

I don't think anyone can argue against that. It certainly was a watershed.

 

 

[Silver]

The OS guide is really only a reference manual. As such, it is invaluable. As a price guide, I honestly rarely consult it any longer.

[FlyingDonut]

No

[whisp]

I don't even keep an updated OS. I use it more as a guide of what the prices could be and go from there. I usally try and get books for half the price of OS.

[slym2none]

No

 

Now that is clear, concise, and succinct!

 

(thumbs u

 

 

 

-slym

[Ghost Town]

No

What kind of books have prices accurately represented in the guide? For the stuff that I'm interested in, it's usually way off. To me, it seems like they blatantly ignore actual verified sales.

[adamstrange]

No

What kind of books have prices accurately represented in the guide? For the stuff that I'm interested in, it's usually way off. To me, it seems like they blatantly ignore actual verified sales.

Do they even make an attempt to present prices for your kind of books (9.6s)?

 

I haven't bought in one about 5 years as it's not that helpful for the stuff I buy either.

[Ghost Town]

No

What kind of books have prices accurately represented in the guide? For the stuff that I'm interested in, it's usually way off. To me, it seems like they blatantly ignore actual verified sales.

Do they even make an attempt to present prices for your kind of books (9.6s)?

 

I haven't bought in one about 5 years as it's not that helpful for the stuff I buy either.

No, Overstreet doesn't list prices for anything higher than 9.2.

 

But take books like AF #15 or FF #1, for example. The prices don't reflect reality in most grades. And there isn't any shortage of reported sales to use as reference.

[adamstrange]

No

What kind of books have prices accurately represented in the guide? For the stuff that I'm interested in, it's usually way off. To me, it seems like they blatantly ignore actual verified sales.

Do they even make an attempt to present prices for your kind of books (9.6s)?

 

I haven't bought in one about 5 years as it's not that helpful for the stuff I buy either.

No, Overstreet doesn't list prices for anything higher than 9.2.

 

But take books like AF #15 or FF #1, for example. The prices don't reflect reality in most grades. And there isn't any shortage of reported sales to use as reference.

In general, Overstreet is going to be behind the market. Bob uses a moving average -- though the timeframe and weighting are not disclosed. For arguments sake it may look something like:

 

Book X sells for an average of $80 in 2006, $100 in 2007 and $120 in 2008. The 2009 Guide might show a value of $100. If the trend continued then even when the Guide comes out in April it may further be disconnected from the current market as it may be selling for $130. By the end of the year it may sell for $140 and so by the time the 2010 Guide comes out the new value, based on the weighted moving average, is $120 which, once again, is low.

 

Just as the weighted value smoothes out the highs and prevents dramatic increases it also smooths out the lows preventing dramatic decreases. This gives the comics market an image of stability since only Overstreet can see that volatility occurring (they are his data and his algorithms). To get a more timely sense of trends you would want to do your own research and take advantage of GPA which provides raw data and some basic tools.

 

 

[jimjum12]

OSPG is great as a handy reference tool....but it has become inaccurate in many areas.In today's market of high grade slabs, GPA is where it's at....I just wish George could include data for raw sales....especially 30's to 60's...GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Ghost Town]

In general, Overstreet is going to be behind the market. Bob uses a moving average -- though the timeframe and weighting are not disclosed. For arguments sake it may look something like:

 

Book X sells for an average of $80 in 2006, $100 in 2007 and $120 in 2008. The 2009 Guide might show a value of $100. If the trend continued then even when the Guide comes out in April it may further be disconnected from the current market as it may be selling for $130. By the end of the year it may sell for $140 and so by the time the 2010 Guide comes out the new value, based on the weighted moving average, is $120 which, once again, is low.

 

Just as the weighted value smoothes out the highs and prevents dramatic increases it also smooths out the lows preventing dramatic decreases. This gives the comics market an image of stability since only Overstreet can see that volatility occurring (they are his data and his algorithms). To get a more timely sense of trends you would want to do your own research and take advantage of GPA which provides raw data and some basic tools.

 

I understand Overstreet is going to be a bit behind the market. That's the nature of a book that comes out once a year. But there are a lot of books (like AF #15, FF #1, Hulk #1 to name just a few) that are many years behind the market. I'd guess that's either laziness or it's an intentional attempt to show prices that make it easier for dealers to acquire those books. Either way, it's a shame that the hobby's bible/price guide doesn't provide all that much guidance for many collectors. I'm glad GPA is around to help fill the void.

[adamstrange]

In general, Overstreet is going to be behind the market. Bob uses a moving average -- though the timeframe and weighting are not disclosed. For arguments sake it may look something like:

 

Book X sells for an average of $80 in 2006, $100 in 2007 and $120 in 2008. The 2009 Guide might show a value of $100. If the trend continued then even when the Guide comes out in April it may further be disconnected from the current market as it may be selling for $130. By the end of the year it may sell for $140 and so by the time the 2010 Guide comes out the new value, based on the weighted moving average, is $120 which, once again, is low.

 

Just as the weighted value smoothes out the highs and prevents dramatic increases it also smooths out the lows preventing dramatic decreases. This gives the comics market an image of stability since only Overstreet can see that volatility occurring (they are his data and his algorithms). To get a more timely sense of trends you would want to do your own research and take advantage of GPA which provides raw data and some basic tools.

 

I understand Overstreet is going to be a bit behind the market. That's the nature of a book that comes out once a year. But there are a lot of books (like AF #15, FF #1, Hulk #1 to name just a few) that are many years behind the market. I'd guess that's either laziness or it's an intentional attempt to show prices that make it easier for dealers to acquire those books. Either way, it's a shame that the hobby's bible/price guide doesn't provide all that much guidance for many collectors. I'm glad GPA is around to help fill the void.

I don't track those books against the guide (heck, I don't track anything against the guide) so it's fair to ask how much longer a dead-tree based price guide is going to last.

[comicgrinder]

In general, Overstreet is going to be behind the market. Bob uses a moving average -- though the timeframe and weighting are not disclosed. For arguments sake it may look something like:

 

Book X sells for an average of $80 in 2006, $100 in 2007 and $120 in 2008. The 2009 Guide might show a value of $100. If the trend continued then even when the Guide comes out in April it may further be disconnected from the current market as it may be selling for $130. By the end of the year it may sell for $140 and so by the time the 2010 Guide comes out the new value, based on the weighted moving average, is $120 which, once again, is low.

 

Just as the weighted value smoothes out the highs and prevents dramatic increases it also smooths out the lows preventing dramatic decreases. This gives the comics market an image of stability since only Overstreet can see that volatility occurring (they are his data and his algorithms). To get a more timely sense of trends you would want to do your own research and take advantage of GPA which provides raw data and some basic tools.

 

I understand Overstreet is going to be a bit behind the market. That's the nature of a book that comes out once a year. But there are a lot of books (like AF #15, FF #1, Hulk #1 to name just a few) that are many years behind the market. I'd guess that's either laziness or it's an intentional attempt to show prices that make it easier for dealers to acquire those books. Either way, it's a shame that the hobby's bible/price guide doesn't provide all that much guidance for many collectors. I'm glad GPA is around to help fill the void.

I don't track those books against the guide (heck, I don't track anything against the guide) so it's fair to ask how much longer a dead-tree based price guide is going to last.

with the brick and mortar LCS's and the average Joe using the OSPG as their published grading guideline, knowing full well CGC won't publish theirs....the OSPG dead-tree will be around for still quite awhile.

[Jeffro.]

I'm not sure you can base your argument on the inaccuarcy of OSPG on the fact that comics sell for less on ebay. ebay is like one huge discount flea market for a LOT of collectibles. Sure, some premium stuff sells for above 'guide', but a lot more sells for less than guide. I'm not just talking comics either.

 

 

The Overstreet Price Guide (and any price guide) is supposed to reflect the real value (technically retail value, but the internet changed all of that, so let's put that aside for now) of an item at the time the guide was published, right? That is, the price that a buyer with the money is willing to pay at any given moment in time.

 

eBay is, by far, the largest market for comic books (and other collectibles) in the world, right?

 

So, if you ignore eBay, you're ignoring the largest market in the world, and basing your information on...what? Convention sales? How does one confirm convention sales? Retail store sales? Same probem. And those sales account for a fraction of the sales that eBay does every day. Even tossing out the BINs (which a fair percentage of sell), there are still 75,000-85,000 auctions up every minute of every day, with an average of 8,000 auctions ending every single day. Are there 8,000 back issue sales a WEEK in all the rest of the market combined? Even if 50% of the auctions end without a bid, and not even factoring in the BINs that are sold, that would still be 4,000 sales each and every day, every day of the year.

 

How is it possible, then, to ignore the impact eBay has on the values of EVERYTHING that is sold there? One cannot. If Joe Blow Buyer is looking for a copy of Sandman #1 (1989), and he finds a copy he's pleased with on eBay for $20 shipped, why on earth would he spend $40 (current OPG) on the same thing at a retail store? Multiply that out times a lot.

 

The thing is, eBay is NOT a corner flea market which has no impact on the market. eBay is the world's biggest flea market, which has greatly, and permanently, changed the way that people buy collectibles of any kind.

 

Ignoring that, then, would make the information contained in the OPG based on partial, incomplete data...and wouldn't that render the guide useless....?

 

In other words, isn't it really worth what the stuff sells for on eBay, and NOT the far smaller, far more isolated convention sales and retail sales? That is, eBay is the RULE, rather than the exception?

 

I'm not trying to disprove your documentation on books that have sold below guide. However, as a counterpoint I'd like to see some data on books that do sell on ebay for guide or above guide.