How to fix the Overstreet Guide...

[garthgantu]

Since the book was around for three decades before the whole slabbing thing began and those prices have always been for unslabbed comics, and since the prices didn't suddenly make a dramatic change when slabbing began, it always seemed obvious to me that the values in the Guide were always meant to be the values of the books themselves, not the values of the books plus plastic. We do report on slabbed pricing in the Overstreet Comic Price Review.

 

Arnold, with all due respect, this is the oddest logic I've seen in awhile - and coming from someone who resides on these boards, that's saying something.

 

If you print a price guide for a given collectible, collectors in that sector are going to assume that, when you provide a price for a given item, that's the price. I realize that CGC has skewed things significantly and that prices on many high grade books have much wider spreads than in the past. But to say that the OS Guide doesn't reflect "the values of the books plus plastic" is facetious. What you're really saying is that the OS Guide doesn't reflect "true NM 9.4 values" of most books. Or are you saying that CGC's definition of NM is in fact far more strict than the OS Price Guide and OS Grading Guide? CGC itself has intimated that their grading guidelines are more or less the same as Overstreet's - so why should their be any discrepancy in values?

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

Thanks for the offer comicwiz, but these issues are in other hands. You wouldn't believe how many people offer their services in this area. But it's very nice to hear all the same.

 

Arnold

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

Haven't you noticed that 99% of what I say here is "facetious?"

 

As I said before, I'm just glad I don't deal with pricing. I have opinions on the matter of course, but they are my own. Not my area. Fight amongst yourselves .

 

Arnold

[fantastic_four]

Since the book was around for three decades before the whole slabbing thing began and those prices have always been for unslabbed comics, and since the prices didn't suddenly make a dramatic change when slabbing began, it always seemed obvious to me that the values in the Guide were always meant to be the values of the books themselves, not the values of the books plus plastic.

 

If someone at Gemstone could point all us near mint, early Silver and Gold collectors towards ANY source that we can get those comics at even DOUBLE the current Overstreet prices, we would all appreciate it greatly!!! I don't get at all how Gemstone can report the NM prices on Gold/Silver comic books when every single advisor in the back of the guide sells the same NM books at multiples of the prices listed--even when they're raw! If I've overlooked some Gold or early Silver NM books from an Overstreet Advisor or two, please, someone...point them out to me! I've been looking for years with little success.

 

Other than Gold/Silver NM pricing, the Overstreet guide is a terrific resource. I don't think there are too many ads...the market reports are great...and I don't have serious doubts about the objectivity and integrity of the people creating it. But Overstreet seriously needs to fix the NM 9.4 column, or if there is no way for Gemstone to accurately price those books, drop it entirely.

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

So does anybody read the articles at all? Just curious .

 

Arnold

[OldSchoolTerry]

So does anybody read the articles at all? Just curious .

 

Arnold

I do...we could use some more of them in fact....so please get to work instead of spending all day on a message board.......

[fantastic_four]

I read the one about comic book ages in the 2003 guide...definitely interesting, although since we had discussed it in these forums already I didn't remember hearing any new arguments or ideas. That's just the nature of the Internet, I guess.

 

How about an article on CGC versus raw pricing and why the Overstreet prices can't reflect both? I'm being serious...hope it doesn't sound overly critical since that's the issue we're harping on in this thread.

[The_End_At_Last]

It will be impossible to fix the Overstreet Guide.

 

For instance, suppose prices in the Guide are increased by roughly 50% (or whatever figure). Slabbed prices would then increase by a similar amount to keep them as being higher than Overstreet. Actual raw prices would then also go up to keep tabs on the slabbed prices. Meaning that Overstreet would then once again be 'behind' reality.

 

This is merely a consequence of having a guide for raw prices, and a market for both raw and slabbed where people think that there is a linkage between the two. There shouldn't be.

[garthgantu]

Don't try to distract us with the articles, Arnold!!

 

I read about half of them, usually. But if they all went away in the next edition, it wouldn't change my view of the Guide. And depending on what replaced those articles, my opinion of the Guide might even go up.

 

Arnold, I realize much of what you say on these boards is facetious, but I couldn't tell in that post about raw vs. slabbed prices. There have been numerous 'debates' on these boards re: whether the OS Guide is asleep at the wheel when it comes to values of NM GA and SA books, so I assumed you wouldn't joke on that point. My mistake.

[fantastic_four]

This is merely a consequence of having a guide for raw prices, and a market for both raw and slabbed where people think that there is a linkage between the two. There shouldn't be.

 

Why shouldn't there be? I am perfectly willing to buy tightly graded, unrestored raw Silver Age comic books for Overstreet prices. Now...WHERE DO I GO GET THEM!?!?

[Smokinghawk]

So does anybody read the articles at all? Just curious .

 

Arnold

 

Yes. Love them.

 

I especially liked the one years back on "Comics go to war!"

 

Would you be open to suggestions for topics of future articles?

 

Heck, even an article discussing the ongoing debate about the effects fo slabbing on prices would be of merit. On one side, we have "slabbing hasn't had a dramatic effect on prices." On the other, we have "slabbing has caused high-grade books to jump multiples of guide, including a doubling of guide price for each successive .2 increase in the NM/M range".

 

I'd like to see an article on topics like...How the representation of race and culture has changed in comics (how are non-White characters and non-Anglo cultures portrayed? What comparisons and contrasts between GA and now can be demonstrated?)

 

How body image is presented in comics: What significance is there in deviation from the standard muscular male/thin, bosomed female? Are non-generic body types used more often to suggest a character's goodness or badness? What personality types appear connected with characters outside the "comic norm" body types? What are some notable anomalies or handicaps apparent among comics characters?

 

Celebrities who read comics: interviews and "favorites" lists.

 

Weirdest comics book ads of all time.

 

Any others?

 

[OldSchoolTerry]

How about another one debating whether comics will ever be for kids again?

[joe_collector]

it always seemed obvious to me that the values in the Guide were always meant to be the values of the books themselves, not the values of the books plus plastic.

 

A year or two ago, I might have agreed with this statement, but today the raw NM price of a reputable dealer may be slightly below CGC levels, but is still at Guide multiples. Multiples have existed for awhile now, but the trend towards dealers pricing this way is almost across the board for 2003.

 

Exactly when is this RAW COMIC long-term trend going to be reflected in the RAW Overstreet Guide Prices? I'm guessing never, and Bob will find some way to fudge the numbers and hit the "update by 10%" button on his PC.

 

At some point, OS will have to reflect reality, or be dragged screaming into the light by the collector base.

[joe_collector]

How about another one debating whether comics will ever be for kids again?

 

NO!

 

Shortest article ever....

[The_End_At_Last]

A second guide for slabbed prices would help.

 

Interestingly, imagine being able to split the world into two separate communities. One would be for people buying and selling raw comics, the other buying and selling slabbed comics. Importantly, neither community can see the prices either offered or realised for the other community. Over time, what would happen to the prices ? I suggest that they would eventually converge (other than the price for the slab to include the slabbing costs).

[fantastic_four]

A second guide for slabbed prices would help.

 

I would argue that the LARGE majority of Gold and Silver age buyers who pay premiums for slabbed books do so for two reasons over raw books--tight grading and the restoration check. Why does tight grading and a restoration check mean it's a fundamentally different market? Is it implied in the Overstreet pricing that the grading might be off and the book might be restored since it's raw, and that's why it's a lower price--because of the greater investment risk since it's an unknown commodity? And if it's an unknown commodity...how can Overstreet really put prices on those books at all? It sounds like a guessing game. Maybe this reported sale of a NM Amazing Spider-Man #1 from Overstreet Advisor X for $25,000 was tightly graded and unrestored...maybe it wasn't. If you're not sure, why report it at all?

 

People paying hundreds or thousands of dollars for certified comics aren't doing it for the plastic, they're doing it for the rarity and grade of the comics; the slab is primarily an insurance cost to them. I don't see a fundamental difference in a tightly graded, unrestored raw comic versus a tightly graded, unrestored slabbed comic...and I would argue that the majority of the Overstreet Advisors don't either! They charge multiples of guide for raw, vintage comics that are in line with the same prices they charge on certified books.

 

So if this is what the Overstreet Advisors are doing...how does the guide end up not reflecting their view of the market every year? Something's screwed up...

[Zanarkand]

The Overstreet guide should be a guide for comic sales of all kinds. Not a guide for raw or a guide for slabbed. Today, it is a guide for raw pretty much by accident, as Arnoldt said, because the guide has been around longer than slabbing.

 

The whole point of a guide is to report how much comic books tend to sell for. Whatever qualities they may have that makes collectors want to pay more or less are of course built in. I am comfortable paying over guide for quality material from certain dealers I know personally. A lot of people are comfortable paying over guide if the book is slabbed. To each his own. Does this mean these sales should not count because factors other than the comic book itself were taken into consideration when determining price at time of sale? Of course not. And they shouldn't count extra either.

 

Take some NM sales. Book guides for $450. It sells "raw" for $400, $500, and $530. It sells to me raw for $550 from a dealer I know and trust, sells slabbed for $900, $1000, $1080 to people who like slabs, and sells as a restored NM for $350. Throw out the high & low, average, an voila. Guide reports that the books sells for $647 in NM, which should always be read as "around" $647 in NM. No qualifying factors involved.

 

Is the "value" if the book really $647 in NM? No, nor does the guide pretend that it is. It's just a number arrived at, a benchmark, based on reported sales. Pay what you want for it. The market always decides value.

 

Factors like the slab, a personal relationship, sight unseen mail order, Ebay, etc are all things you take into consideration, not the guide. The guide just reports, essentially, the pricing decision arrived at after factoring all those things in.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Personally, I believe the Guide should be patently disregarded when it comes to certified material. Its a game of multiples for quality, high-end CGC material, and Overstreet will always be well behind the curve. Don't get me wrong, its still an invaluable resource, and I will always slavishly buy the newest edition. But I'm no longer holding out hope that it will ever accurately portray the high end market.

 

My greatest criticism of the Guide is whether anyone actually does any pricing info, or as Joe suggests, Mr. Overstreet just hits the ole "increase by 10% button".

[Zanarkand]

A second guide for slabbed prices would help.

 

If that ever happens, it really will be The End At Last.

 

Let's all follow along:

 

- Any guide that reports slabbed sales exclusively will (naturally) have to get its data from principle sellers of slabbed books, to have any validity.

 

- The principle sellers are all BSDs, many of whom are member dealers or charter members of CGC.

 

- Member dealers and charter members get heavy discounts for sending in stuff themselves.

 

- So the slabbed sales data comes from people who have an exclusive slab-marketplace advantage. The rest of us have to pay $30 a pop, on average.

 

- Charter members also engage in profit sharing with the company, at least if their LLC works like the other private partnerships (i.e. law firms, private medical practices), and get kickbacks for submission to CGC that come through them.

 

- So the sales data also comes from people who have every interest in driving up submissions by reporting slab values that are... optimistic, thereby attracting profit seekers.

 

The current guide accepts reporting from sales of slab-happy CGCers and raw sellers alike. In fact, if you read the market reports, you'll see that many of them don't like CGC one bit. No dealer or group of dealers has an exclusive marketplace advantage. Neither can anyone gain by reporting high. They're marketplace competitors, none of whom want to be the guy who reports that he always has the highest prices. Not organization partners, who can artificially jack prices up and can afford to forego a sale here and there as long as the CGC income rolls in.

 

The best thing the guide could do is invent a rule of thumb, like they have for restored values.

[Aman619]

guys - - the Guide comes out ANNUALLY.... how accurate can you really expect it to be in today's fast-paced marketplace? If you expect it to an up-to-the-minute pricing guide for slabbed books, a annual paperback book will NEVER be the solution.

 

Overstreet will always lag the market. Its to a great extent a publishing issue. And partly by design, which, of late, just may need some tweaking to stay relevant. But there i sno way it can be 95% accurate for every book in every grade, whether old or new, or HOT or cold, with a movie coming out, and not....unless its updated daily like the financial pages and websites.

 

Anyone wanna invest in setting THAT system up and keep it going until its profitable?