Money Is No Object!!

[drbanner]

Record setting prices and new collectors entering the hobby are not harbingers of doom for the comic book market...

 

Funny, they always have been in the past.

 

Funny, based on what books have been selling for over the last few years, I'd say the harbingers have never quite gotten it quite right then!!

 

Trends do not adhere to your foolish yearly schedules, but instead concern themselves with decades.

 

Sorry Joe, I forgot about all those decades where new collectors and record prices were "always" harbingers of doom, like the 60's..hmm...70's...uh, no...80's...well, uh...90's...nope, hmm, which decades were those again Joe?

[Foolkiller]

"the great comic orgy"?

 

Anyway, where does that leave the present state of the market in your mind?

One interesting point is the fact you note or rather question whether the rate of return on these books is at all sustainable... and I agree that it is not. In fact, it would be very difficult to continuously have books that continue to only go up and up in value. For most books, there has to be a ceiling of what people will pay.

 

The confusion often lies in the definition behind crash rather than things descending from the craziness behind prices. if this were a slow and steady growth, I'm not sure it would be abnormal, but there has been this explosion surrounding certain books, and the question is, can it really be sustained.

 

But, I still think there's collectors out there who may have the money to buy the books, but have not had the opportunity in the past. Part of the fact that people are buying high prices for many books is the fact that these were not readily available before. How many CGC FF's were offered all at one time before? Bob's sale is notable because they were all noted at once and they were great graded books on many pre 65 books. I have to believe that a percentage of the sales comes from people who have money buying books that simply weren't out there before.

[Aman619]

[COI]

but Bob Storms publicly stated that he was buying a house when he sold the FFS...not averting a crash.

 

Actions speak louder than words. Why would this man, who is very in-tune with this hobby, pick this particular time to sell? From what I've heard, people have been trying to buy his FF's for a while, so why now? He's a dealer, so if by some chance he sees a "crash" or "correction" on the horizon, do you think he's going to come out and say it? That wouldn't be good for business. Regardless of his reasons, or what he claims are his reasons, on the topic of "investing" you have to tale a dealer's opinions with a grain of salt.

 

http://www.tias.com/stores/metropolis/press.html

 

http://www.pgcmint.com/ArticleContent2.php?articleID=39

 

Or maybe, just maybe, Bob is actually BUYING a house, and noticing that the Federal Reserve just hinted at raising interest rates, and decided to buy now before his mortgage rate would go up. There's probably not a conspiracy theory here people - Bob wants cash now. Give it a break.

 

There will never be a break! There's a conspiracy EVERYWHERE! Single sales are harbingers of DOOM!

 

Which is an awfully convenient (shady?) premise since you can just pick and choose ones to fit your pet theory.

 

Bob- who's sitting on a gazillion dollar inventory and is, on this very message board, complaining publicly about not being offered the opportunity to add to it by buying HooDeeDoo's collection , sells his personal FFs and it's a sign that he has no confidence in the market. That makes perfect sense. Especially when he, one of the most forthright dealers in the hobby explains his motivation is to buy a house. This is a guy most of us have talked to, dealt with and trust. But really, with all that it's much easier to imagine that BOB IS A LIAR.

 

This is ridiculous. Should I dig up any number of posts where people ascribing motivations to a particular purchase were vilified? Let me get this straight, it's not okay to ascribe motivations to people's expensive, headline making purchases- we're supposed to take those at face value; but it's perfectly fine to ascribe them to a big sale? I guess it depends on whether or not the sale fits into a certain agenda. That's [!@#%^&^] lame.

 

Jesus Christ, can you all relax?

 

Bob - I apologize if you felt I was calling you a liar, or questioning whether or not you actually bought a house or not. All I meant was that it seemed to me that you sold now because you saw an opportunity in a mounting FF bubble. Your decisions are none of my business.

 

CGCMINT: Get a day job? WTF is that supposed to mean? I'm in the process of selling my business and getting into another. Once the next one is underway, I assure you my 12 hour work days will not allow for much posting here. The next time I see you at a local con, please tell me to "get a day job" to my face. I'm looking foreward to it. Being 2-faced dosen't sit well with me, so don't make stupid, brain dead comments like "get a day job" and expect to make nice later on.

 

Rob - I've always tried to keep my responses logical, and have swung away from presenting "conspiracy theories". I never said Bob was a liar, I merely pointed out that he may have seen a forming bubble, and took advantage. When did I say he wasn't actually buying a house? Where did I call him a liar? I was merely pointing out that regardless of how ANY dealer may feel about the future of the market, they have an agenda. That agenda is to sell books. It's not a conspiracy, it's not dishonest, it's just business. That's all I said. Your beloved Bob is perfectly capable of speaking up for himself, and again, I apologize to him if he felt I was intruding on his personal business.

 

You and I may have different opinions on the future of comics, but don't lump me in under conspiracy theory, chicken-little, doom and gloom designation. I tried calmy explaining in my last post that I'm just posting my opinions based on my personal observations, which I don't see as pessimism. I may be right, I may be wrong, but don't try to make me out as some sort of hypocritical, pessimistic, malcontent, conspiracy theorist with an agenda.

[rob_react]

but Bob Storms publicly stated that he was buying a house when he sold the FFS...not averting a crash.

 

Actions speak louder than words. Why would this man, who is very in-tune with this hobby, pick this particular time to sell? From what I've heard, people have been trying to buy his FF's for a while, so why now? He's a dealer, so if by some chance he sees a "crash" or "correction" on the horizon, do you think he's going to come out and say it? That wouldn't be good for business. Regardless of his reasons, or what he claims are his reasons, on the topic of "investing" you have to tale a dealer's opinions with a grain of salt.

 

http://www.tias.com/stores/metropolis/press.html

 

http://www.pgcmint.com/ArticleContent2.php?articleID=39

 

Or maybe, just maybe, Bob is actually BUYING a house, and noticing that the Federal Reserve just hinted at raising interest rates, and decided to buy now before his mortgage rate would go up. There's probably not a conspiracy theory here people - Bob wants cash now. Give it a break.

 

There will never be a break! There's a conspiracy EVERYWHERE! Single sales are harbingers of DOOM!

 

Which is an awfully convenient (shady?) premise since you can just pick and choose ones to fit your pet theory.

 

Bob- who's sitting on a gazillion dollar inventory and is, on this very message board, complaining publicly about not being offered the opportunity to add to it by buying HooDeeDoo's collection , sells his personal FFs and it's a sign that he has no confidence in the market. That makes perfect sense. Especially when he, one of the most forthright dealers in the hobby explains his motivation is to buy a house. This is a guy most of us have talked to, dealt with and trust. But really, with all that it's much easier to imagine that BOB IS A LIAR.

 

This is ridiculous. Should I dig up any number of posts where people ascribing motivations to a particular purchase were vilified? Let me get this straight, it's not okay to ascribe motivations to people's expensive, headline making purchases- we're supposed to take those at face value; but it's perfectly fine to ascribe them to a big sale? I guess it depends on whether or not the sale fits into a certain agenda. That's [!@#%^&^] lame.

 

Jesus Christ, can you all relax?

 

Bob - I apologize if you felt I was calling you a liar, or questioning whether or not you actually bought a house or not. All I meant was that it seemed to me that you sold now because you saw an opportunity in a mounting FF bubble. Your decisions are none of my business.

 

CGCMINT: Get a day job? WTF is that supposed to mean? I'm in the process of selling my business and getting into another. Once the next one is underway, I assure you my 12 hour work days will not allow for much posting here. The next time I see you at a local con, please tell me to "get a day job" to my face. I'm looking foreward to it. Being passive-agressive dosen't work with me, so don't make stupid, brain dead comments like "get a day job" and expect to make nice later on.

 

Rob - I've always tried to keep my responses logical, and have swung away from presenting "conspiracy theories". I never said Bob was a liar, I merely pointed out that he may have seen a forming bubble, and took advantage. When did I say he wasn't actually buying a house? Where did I call him a liar? I was merely pointing out that regardless of how ANY dealer may feel about the future of the market, they have an agenda. That agenda is to sell books. It's not a conspiracy, it's not dishonest, it's just business. That's all I said. Your beloved Bob is perfectly capable of speaking up for himself, and again, I apologize to him if he felt I was intruding on his personal business.

 

You and I may have different opinions on the future of comics, but don't lump me in under conspiracy theory, chicken-little, doom and gloom designation. I tried calmy explaining in my last post that I'm just posting my opinions based on my personal observations, which I don't see as pessimism. I may be right, I may be wrong, but don't try to make me out as some sort of hypocritical, pessimistic, malcontent, conspiracy theorist with an agenda.

 

I actually wasn't aware who wrote the original "actions speak louder than words post" I was just riffing off of what came before. It wasn't my intention to even comment on just that specific post, so I definitely wasn't trying to lump you in with them. I've always found you to be fair, reasonable open-minded and cool-headed.

 

But... let's get one thing straight here. Bob isn't my "beloved." I did one large (for me) deal with him, I've bought a few books out of his boxes and I've talked to him a few times at shows. I don't even know that he could put a name to my face. It's just that I'm tired of all variations on the "let's make up people's motivations" game that goes on around here. If you listen to it long enough it gets to be pretty annoying, especially when a lot of people that are branded by certain parties as having ulterior motives (BB13 or Dr. Banner for example) are actually amongst the best people in the hobby. Even hearing about the motivations of these anonymous "speculators" is starting to wear thin. To turn this around and point out a manifestation of this problem that affected "the bear's side", I know you were frustrated with people calling out Gene for being a closet investor with his GI Joe #21 original art purchase. Even though I gave him a little [!@#%^&^] for "protesting too much" about the value of the piece, I didn't think that was fair either. So the question is why is it fair or valid to do the exact same thing to Bob- or even these random newbies who made the mistake of buying "hot" books at top of market prices.

 

It also goes without saying that that tactic doesn't shed light any light on the conversation, since it doesn't take a rocket scientist to craft a scenario that bolsters their own opinion.

[joe_collector]

[sorry Joe, I forgot about all those decades where new collectors and record prices were "always" harbingers of doom, like the 60's..hmm...70's...uh, no...80's...well, uh...90's...nope, hmm, which decades were those again Joe?

 

Are you serious? How long have you been collecting, since 2000?

 

There were only three mass entrances of newbie speculator (or in your world, "collector") dollars:

 

1983-86: Independants were the hottest thing since sliced bread, and newbies were buying box after box of the stuff, spending hyper-inflated money (relative to 1985 - FF 48 $5), and then when the bottom fell out and the market crashed hard, they took off like sheep.

 

1989-95: This was a mass speculator enviroment similar to today, and all comics spiked to unheard of rates, from AF 15 to the Valiant crapola flooding the market. This crash was severe and took over half of the comic book stores into bankruptcy, drove back issue prices down, and flattened the Buls hard.

 

2001-?: The CGC Speculator Frenzy....

[qualitycomix]

Most of what you just described involved modern comics, where there will ALWAYS be speculators of some kind or another. I cringe everytime I see record prices acheived for an Ultimate Spider-Man #1 or a Batman RRP #608 or whatever the latest craze is. Time will judge those books.

 

As for early high grade Silver Age books, they have already proven their worth over the past 40 years and will only increase in value and desirability and scarcity as time takes it's toll on them.

[joe_collector]

As for early high grade Silver Age books, they have already proven their worth over the past 40 years and will only increase in value and desirability and scarcity as time takes it's toll on them.

 

That's a dangerous way to think, especially with little "new blood" coming in. I think the "collector base" is what is gonna be hit "as time takes it's toll on them".

[drbanner]

Most of what you just described involved modern comics, where there will ALWAYS be speculators of some kind or another. I cringe everytime I see record prices acheived for an Ultimate Spider-Man #1 or a Batman RRP #608 or whatever the latest craze is. Time will judge those books.

 

'zackly...

[delekkerste]

It wasn't my intention to even comment on just that specific post, so I definitely wasn't trying to lump you in with them.

 

Rob: Just what did I say that offended you so greatly? I didn't question Bob's motivations or integrity - I think any rational person would agree that Bob is a smart guy and wouldn't have sold his FFs if he thought he was leaving big $$$ on the table. That was my point - Bob ain't no fool. I didn't say that Bob was trying to dupe anybody (let alone say or imply that he was a "LIAR" in any way, shape or form) nor did I ever say or imply that Bob thought a crash was coming. Let me repeat: NO CRASH. I don't know CRASH from DUPCAK. Can I make that any more clear? All this "negativism" and "crash talk" is you inferring things from previous posts (not even necessarily by myself), not from this thread.

 

 

Well said Bob and to everyone speculating on why you sold your FFs, they need a day job.

 

John: You and others may think that I get off on hearing myself talk, but the truth of the matter is that I've got my hands full pulling 12 to 17 hour days trying to close 3 deals at my "day job". Contrary to what some (Mr. Rudd comes to mind) have said in the past, I don't get off on conflict - it wastes my valuable time. Yes, I do think I have something to contribute to this Board and I enjoy spending some time sharing my thoughts. I think it provides a necessary counter-balance to the usual stroke-fest that goes on here and I think that maybe my advice may make people think twice about making poor buying decisions. Believe it or not, being social and hopefully helping some people from getting burned are my only motivations.

 

(continued)

 

[delekkerste]

BUT Gene, don't you think there's something to the fact that there are still buyers for all these books at record prices? I don't know who they are, but is that relevant? I'm not sure it is.

 

Brian: Yes, of course it's relevant. I'm not sure why so many intelligent people keep clinging to the fantasy that these newbies are BSD shill accounts or wealthy professionals looking to recapture their youth. Possible? Maybe. But isn't it more likely that these represent a fraction of the wide-eyed newbies and specs with $$$ signs in their eyes following the parabolic advance of the last few years? Particularly when you read some of the posts by some of the newbies on this Board - no offense to them, but let's face it, it's clear that their market acumen is low and not anywhere close to that of those of us who have been collecting for decades and who have had the opportunity to watch the CGC phenomenon unfold from the beginning. People can infer the consequences of this dynamic on their own.

 

 

As for early high grade Silver Age books, they have already proven their worth over the past 40 years and will only increase in value and desirability and scarcity as time takes it's toll on them.

 

Sorry Joe, I forgot about all those decades where new collectors and record prices were "always" harbingers of doom, like the 60's..hmm...70's...uh, no...80's...well, uh...90's...nope, hmm, which decades were those again Joe?

 

Current price levels of pre-1980 HG books relative to all metrics of income, wealth and other asset prices are so off the charts right now that you can't compare today's market with previous spec bubbles in the comic market. Again, I'm not uttering a word regarding the timing or magnitude of a potential future reversal, but let there be no doubt that, as I have described in the past, evidence is accumulating almost daily that we are in the Mother of All Comic Market Speculative Bubbles (Rob - lest you think I'm selectively choosing evidence, go look up the thread where I applied the bubble criteria from the Reserve Bank of Australia's research group to the comic market). How long will it last? Probably longer than I think it will. How high will prices go? Probably even higher than the current eye-popping auction results we're seeing now (at least for some books). How and when will it end? Probably in a way that fools the most amount of people and inflicts the most savage damage on their net worths. Empirically, that's just the way it works. I didn't make up the rules.

 

Gene

[drbanner]

Current price levels of pre-1980 HG books relative to all metrics of income, wealth and other asset prices are so off the charts right now that you can't compare today's market with previous spec bubbles in the comic market. Again, I'm not uttering a word regarding the timing or magnitude of a potential future reversal, but let there be no doubt that, as I have described in the past, evidence accumulates almost daily that we are in the Mother of All Comic Market Speculative Bubbles (Rob - lest you think I'm selectively choosing evidence, go look up the thread where I applied the bubble criteria from the Reserve Bank of Australia's research group to the comic market). How long will it last? Probably longer than I think it will. How high will prices go? Probably even higher than the current eye-popping auction results we're seeing now (at least for some books). How and when will it end? Probably in a way that fools the most amount of people and inflicts the most savage damage on their net worths. Empirically, that's just the way it work. I didn't make up the rules.

 

Gene

 

You don't say?

[delekkerste]

You don't say?

 

Hear me now, believe me later...

 

Gene

[Illiterati-migration]

You don't say?

 

Hear me now, believe me later...

 

Gene

 

Balki, sweet, dear, stupid Balki... I have missed you in your absence, but I see you have learned little. There are Two Certain Truths in the universe, and it is high time I shared them with you.

 

Truth 1: Anything that JC, Cousin Larry, or you, Balki, believe is Wrong. These ideas are to be ignored without reason, denied without evidence, and dismissed as heresy.

 

Truth 2: The comic market can NEVER crash. Ever. Never ever. It is physically impossible.

 

I hope this has been helpful for you, Balki. I know the wise and fine gentlemen of this board would much rather spend more time accumulating their investment collectibles (complete with guaranteed value increases!) than dealing with the rantings of one such as yourself, my middle-eastern European brother-from-another-mother.

[mrwoogieman]

Why is this thread buried in Bronze Age?

[rob_react]

Just what did I say that offended you so greatly?

 

Nothing really. The thread itself and the way it was progressing bothered me. As is plain with my reply to Andrew I barely was aware of who said what.

 

I didn't question Bob's motivations or integrity - I think any rational person would agree that Bob is a smart guy and wouldn't have sold his FFs if he thought he was leaving big $$$ on the table.

 

If you just believe that Bob's stated reasons for selling are the truth and not a front for

"something" then yes I can see him selling and leaving big money on the table. To be honest, I think he did leave some money on the table. FFs are hot, but if any series is going to get a long, drawn out bump from movie hype it's the FF.

 

That was my point - Bob ain't no fool. I didn't say that Bob was trying to dupe anybody (let alone say or imply that he was a "LIAR" in any way, shape or form)

 

What else am I to call it when people when you (or whoever it was) cast doubt on his stated reasons? To cast doubt on his stated reasons is to imply that he's not telling the truth. Last time I checked someone who doesn't tell the truth is a liar.

 

nor did I ever say or imply that Bob thought a crash was coming. Let me repeat: NO CRASH. I don't know CRASH from DUPCAK.

 

You don't know crash. That's hilarious. You're the CRASH MESSIAH!

 

As for this thread in particular... I guess I thought wrong, but I assumed we were supposed to read between the lines here? That way you could start a crash thread but never have to say the magic word? You know, you would lay out the evidence and we'd put it all together- three crazy newbies paying record prices and two wizened veterans getting out while the getting is good? Coming out of your mouth what else was that supposed to spell? I guess we'll have to blame this one on your reputation.

 

Can I make that any more clear? All this "negativism" and "crash talk" is you inferring things from previous posts (not even necessarily by myself), not from this thread.

 

If I were asked to describe you in one sentence I'd say "you're an uber bear prone to hyperbole." Not only do you see a steep decline at some point in the near (?) future for the value of all comics, but you see it never recovering and fading away into obscurity. Maybe I've read you wrong? You can't see how I would view that as negative? The way I see it that's pretty much walking around with "The End is Nigh" on a sandwich board.

 

The funny thing about this is I agree with you to a point. I do think the very top level has gotten ahead of itself in some places. The books you (and JC) follow most closely are especially overvalued. I just don't see that as the industry-killing, apocalyptic problem that you do. Maybe it's because I've seen things like it before and have seen the industry bounce back or because I follow more than CGC Graded Bronze Age Marvels or because I'm simply a more optimistic person. Whatever the reason I just don't see it the same way you do.

 

And after all that typing I've learned that what I really need to do is avoid getting sucked into these threads. I know that they're a pure waste of time because whatever useful infobthat might come out of this discussion is buried behind a wall of conflict and the trenches were dug long before I got here. At the end of the day all that they do is sew the seeds of strife and that's not really what I come here for...

[Aman619]

And after all that typing I've learned that what I really need to do is avoid getting sucked into these threads. I know that they're a pure waste of time because whatever useful infobthat might come out of this discussion is buried behind a wall of conflict and the trenches were dug long before I got here. At the end of the day all that they do is sew the seeds of strife and that's not really what I come here for...

 

welcome to the club!

[drbanner]

You don't say?

 

Hear me now, believe me later...

 

Gene

 

Who says I don't believe you? Your well-thought out dissertations on the state of the comic book market certainly make sense. Unfortunately, as Rob points out, this thread is nothing more than "Just Another Market Crash Thread" started to bring up Bob/Hoodies current situation to support your position. Record prices for common bronze age books and new collectors (sorry, there are no collectors anymore, just investors and speculators, right?) certainly don't support it.

 

And believe ME, we've all heard you now...and yesterday, and last week, and last month, and continually for the last year and a half...

[delekkerste]

What else am I to call it when people when you (or whoever it was) cast doubt on his stated reasons?

 

That is not a fair assessment. No one said he was not selling to buy a house, but rather how he chose to finance it. All anyone is saying is that Bob is too smart to leave big $$$ on the table. Not that he was trying to deceive anyone. Not that he thought prices were going to crash. Maybe he even thinks prices will remain stable or go modestly higher. Bob, if you're reading this, I hope you recognize that I give your business acumen much more credit and respect than others do - they apparently seem to think you're either stupid or desperate enough to be giving free money away.

 

 

If I were asked to describe you in one sentence I'd say "you're an uber bear prone to hyperbole."

 

Coming out of your mouth what else was that supposed to spell? I guess we'll have to blame this one on your reputation.

 

Or maybe we can assign at least some of the blame to your hair-trigger sensitivity about this issue? As for hyperbole, if you want to call what DrBanner describes as my "well-thought out dissertations on the state of the comic book market" hyperbole, that's your prerogative.

 

 

The books you (and JC) follow most closely are especially overvalued. I just don't see that as the industry-killing, apocalyptic problem that you do. Maybe it's because I've seen things like it before and have seen the industry bounce back or because I follow more than CGC Graded Bronze Age Marvels or because I'm simply a more optimistic person.

 

You've seen things like it before? Are you basing this on the last 2 or 3 decades of comic book price performance? Or have you studied speculative bubbles from the 17th century onward and know how to spot the symptoms (and also know that they don't end for some time after the bubble has been identified by those like myself and J_C)? Do you know what happens once a bubble pops? Can you identify the factors that will set the stage for a healthy, broad-based recovery after the denouement? Or should I take your word for it or take it on faith?

 

 

Maybe I've read you wrong? You can't see how I would view that as negative? The way I see it that's pretty much walking around with "The End is Nigh" on a sandwich board.

 

I guess you have read me wrong. I'm nimble and flexible enough in my thinking to recognize periods like the current advance for what they are. I also have a good-sized collectibles collection that is worth much more than I've paid for it. Outside of comics, I let my read of psychology and system dynamics drive my investing decisions, which has led to outperformance in each of the last 4 years (i.e., in both bull and bear markets). Any allusions to me walking around with a "The End is Nigh" placard are pretty unfair. Maybe I'm not the most optimistic person, but I consider myself to be very realistic and pragmatic. In any case, it's been working for me.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

Record prices for common bronze age books and new collectors (sorry, there are no collectors anymore, just investors and speculators, right?) certainly don't support it.

 

No, and it was not meant to be anything more than some interesting anecdotes that may be clues to what is going on in the larger picture. I see that you and Rob are quick to dismiss my conclusions, but that doesn't necessarily make them untrue. Like if I said my grandma and her two gal pals were crossing over to Canada to buy prescription drugs - does that prove that more people are doing this and/or that prescription drugs are overpriced in the U.S.? No, but it might give you an indication that this is the case (and no, my grandma does not live in the U.S. nor buy her prescription drugs in Canada).

 

Gene