FF 1 9.4

[joe_collector]

I'd bet my life on it that there is at least one other 9.6 copy, if not many more. My friend has a full run of FF that are all 9.4 to 10. He bought a full Marvel run from a guy who kept them in a trunk.

 

And what about other pedigrees (like the Curator) that have not made their way to CGC, and may not until the owners retire or pass away?

 

I highly doubt that the Census would ever explode at this grade, but how many 9.6's do you need to lower demand at this price level? 2, 3, 4?

[Aman619]

i think the market could accept 3 copies

[JohnBull]

i think the market could accept 3 copies

 

Hey, what about mine? You saying I'm cheap or something?

[Aman619]

i think the market could accept 3 copies

 

Hey, what about mine? You saying I'm cheap or something?

 

wha???

[fantastic_four]

I find it hard to subscribe to the "I've got a 9.6 but couldn't care less line, so I won't slab". It may be true for the odd few, but for most the potential gain would surely get them out of the woodwork.

 

People choosing not to slab rare, desirable books isn't "odd." It means they don't want or need to sell them, and they don't care about holding their collections up to the Census/Registry measuring stick. Those types of people aren't odd, they're financially secure and humble.

[fantastic_four]

And what about other pedigrees (like the Curator) that have not made their way to CGC, and may not until the owners retire or pass away?

 

The Curator copy of FF #1 is out in circulation and might already be slabbed. The current owner may not even realize it's a Curator; it got sold separately from the 2 to 100 run.

[JohnBull]

i think the market could accept 3 copies

 

Hey, what about mine? You saying I'm cheap or something?

 

wha???

 

The one I'm going to buy one day. There are 4 buyers in this saloon, not 3.

 

Anyone have a spare $200K they can lend me?

[joe_collector]

People choosing not to slab rare, desirable books isn't "odd." It means they don't want or need to sell them, and they don't care about holding their collections up to the Census/Registry measuring stick.

 

Yeah, and while I'm certainly not holding a ton of NM Gold or Silver, I'd stack some of my Bronze raw books (and multiple dupes) up there pretty high. The only ones I *might* slab would be the odd Byrne X-Men, just to complete my "fun run" a bit quicker than EBay is allowing me.

 

I can't believe I'm the only one who has nice books and doesn't feel the overriding ego needed to slab them, and then parade them through the Registry.

[LordRahl]

Everyone was gushing over the BIG NUMBER, when in reality, CGC would be the only organization on Earth to grade that one better than Bruce's. Now we can argue all day about QP, but that scenario made absolutely no sense, assuming you can still think for yourself and haven't signed your brain over to CGC.

 

Not everyone. Go back and reread that thread. I said the 9.8 was sweet but would still rather have Bruce's 9.6.

[JohnBull]

I find it hard to subscribe to the "I've got a 9.6 but couldn't care less line, so I won't slab". It may be true for the odd few, but for most the potential gain would surely get them out of the woodwork.

 

People choosing not to slab rare, desirable books isn't "odd." It means they don't want or need to sell them, and they don't care about holding their collections up to the Census/Registry measuring stick. Those types of people aren't odd, they're financially secure and humble.

 

Right, but they must be very tiny in numbers. Let's take Timely's friend. He has a run of FF1-100 in average 9.6. What's this worth? Half a million? A million? I'm open to figures.

 

He bought the set some number of years ago, pre-slabbing. What did he pay? He knew they were nice, but they were a job lot and the market was very different. 5 grand? 10 grand?

 

There are very few people in the world who can afford to invest 10 grand, watch it accumulate to half a million over 10 or 20 years and not feel the need to cash in. If you have a spare half a million lying around, you might well be able to spend it on comic books, but to sit on an investment growth along the lines mentioned is very difficult (unless you were incredibly wealthy to start with).

 

None of us knows what's out there and yes, it's likely there are hidden treasures, but I think these Curator like collections are the tiny exception to the rule and they tend to throw up a lot more 9.4's than 9.6's.

 

OT, how well graded are the Church books? They're obviously gorgeous, but if I cracked a 9.6 slab and could eliminate all the coding, if it was resubmitted and graded along SA lines, what's it likely to come back?

[Aman619]

GP with all due respect, there are plenty of people in our little hobby world who regularly spend 10K for one book, and who contentedly sit on half a million dollar collections.Not the majority of course, but its wrong to exaggerate the size as smaller than it really is.

[JohnBull]

It's not the money, it's the growth. I could drop 10K easily tomorrow and not worry about it. I'm sure there are many, many more like me. If in 10 years time I was looking at a book worth 10K (or 5K or 20K), then unless my circumstances changed, I could happily sit on it. If I knew it was worth half a million though, it would be out the door like a shot.

 

In the Timely scenarion, what you need to catch is someone who is willing to spend 10K but could also just have easily have spent half a million. They need to have been prepared to spend that amount to start with AND not think it's a ridiculous sum tied up in those books. Even if I could sit on the investment, I'd still be likely to move my funds into something I thought deserved it more (like high grade GA).

[Aman619]

It's not the money, it's the growth. I could drop 10K easily tomorrow and not worry about it. I'm sure there are many, many more like me. If in 10 years time I was looking at a book worth 10K (or 5K or 20K), then unless my circumstances changed, I could happily sit on it. If I knew it was worth half a million though, it would be out the door like a shot.

 

In the Timely scenarion, what you need to catch is someone who is willing to spend 10K but could also just have easily have spent half a million. They need to have been prepared to spend that amount to start with AND not think it's a ridiculous sum tied up in those books. Even if I could sit on the investment, I'd still be likely to move my funds into something I thought deserved it more (like high grade GA).

 

I think I understand....but to me, the decision whether to sell a comic that has increased in value deoends solely (assuming no other financial pressures to sell) on ite potential future value. EG, whoever sold the AF#15 at 122K recently made some money, but certainly left quite a bit on the table. Similarly, if the 10K book increased to 500K, Id only sell it if it was a momentary spec fan fave that bumped up the price temporarily. But would you lok at ONLY the profit and lock in? what if your 10K book was a really nice Action#1 worth about 500K today. Are you saying you sell that book today? Or do you factor in the future value, as well as the sheer COOLNESS of owning a top copy irregardless of its $$$ value?

[JohnBull]

Hmmm. If I was Dave Anderson, I'd have turned down $1M or $2M for my Action 1. Equally, if he really did counter offer at $4M, that seems pretty smart.

 

Although an FF1 in 9.6 is highly desirable, for me it doesn't compare with a 9.4 Action 1. There are too many of the FF in lower grade and I could never look at it as worth $100K or $200K. If I'd made the killer buy on the FF set, I'd cash out and look at something like the Tec38 that was up last week.

 

No matter how much you want a book, it must have some ultimate value to you. When that's exceeded, it seems sensible to sell. The potential volatility at this height is frightening. I don't subscribe to JC's crash theory accross the board, but if I had an AF15 that I could get $122K for, I'd be more worried that I might have trouble shifting it for $80K in a few years rather than that I might easily get $160K for it. I don't have the balls for those kind of gambles!

[JohnBull]

I don't subscribe to JC's crash theory accross the board, but if I had an AF15 that I could get $122K for, I'd be more worried that I might have trouble shifting it for $80K in a few years rather than that I might easily get $160K for it. I don't have the balls for those kind of gambles!

 

Actually, a sudden thought has occurred. This thread actually started by querying the genuineness of the current FF1 sale. A good way to avoid a South Sea Bubble effect with these ultra high grade keys, would be to regularly 'sell' them in order to give the illusions of i) a market and ii) a growing market. I'm not saying that this is what's happening here, but one things for sure - the day the first slabbed "$100K+" book struggles to make "$70K", you can be darn sure that a few more will follow in it's wake.

[r100comics]

A while back BronzeBruce posted an absolutely beautiful CGC 9.6 copy of Hero for Hire #1. It's QP was blazing, and the book was a real beaut. Then someone popped on and posted a CGC 9.8 copy, which had a huge white border and really didn't look in the same league at Bruce's.

 

Everyone was gushing over the BIG NUMBER, when in reality, CGC would be the only organization on Earth to grade that one better than Bruce's. Now we can argue all day about QP, but that scenario made absolutely no sense, assuming you can still think for yourself and haven't signed your brain over to CGC.

 

The reason for the "BIG NUMBER" is that the HFH #1 9.8 is structurally flawless. Some people appreciate that in a comic book, which is probably why it is worth multiples of the 9.6 value. (even though Bruce's copy is a beauty )

 

Is it within your grasp to understand that perhaps not everyone in the world (CGC included) sees Q.P. as the be all and end all to a book's desirability ?

[joe_collector]

The reason for the "BIG NUMBER" is that the HFH #1 9.8 is structurally flawless.

 

 

Too bad the printer was an alcoholic.

 

Seriously though, CGC can call poorly-produced books like that a 12.5 for all I care, as there's no way they'd be going in my collection.

 

You love off-center, white-border beauties, fine, but I despise them, which is also fine.

[lou_fine]

On the BIG keys like FF#1 and AF#15, I nearly convinced weve seem 90% of the c opies out there.

 

In absolute agreement with you here if you are only talking about the forum members and speculators/imvestors who deal in CGC books on an ongoing basis. If you are talking about the REAL WORLD of long-term collectors who doesn't pay any attention to these boards on a daily basis and who doesn't flip CGC books on a regular basis, then I think you've probably got somewhere closer to 10% rather than 90%.

 

Your rationale for the 90% figure is based upon the assumption that any rational collector who has a high grade copy would immediately slab the book and put it up for sale since it would be foolish to be sitting on such a big investment. I agree that this line of logic would probably apply to you and to a lot of the other forum members. If you speak to a lot of long-term collectors, however, they are in for the long haul and don't really pay any attention to the daily ups and downs of the CGC market, have no interest in slabbing their books at this point in time, have no interest in selling their books at this point in time, pay more attention to Overstreet than GPA, still have a positive outlook on their books and not worried about a crash since they got into the market prior to the run-up in the 90's.

 

Bottom-line: still a ton of books out there in private collections waiting to be slab including low grade, mid grade, high grade, and super high grade! IMHO

[joe_collector]

Bottom-line: still a ton of books out there in private collections waiting to be slab including low grade, mid grade, high grade, and super high grade! IMHO

 

I agree, and often wonder why this is so hard to understand. We all know of very wealthy collectors who would not sell their books for any price, yet many insulate themselves from this fact when talking about high-grade supply.

 

I posted an example awhile back concerning "rare" cigarette baseball cards from the late 1800's. You'd think these would be extremely rare, especially in high-grade, and many collectors have promoted this "we may never see another one" "fact" since the dawn of PSA. But amazingly, these cards have continued to appear over the years.

 

Over the holidays, I was reading in a sportscard publication about a huge find of NM or higher 1800's cigarette cards, and most of these made their way into major auction houses. The grades were amazing, and people literally couldn't believe the quantity and quality of this long-time collection.

 

Now if you think of totally disposable cigarette baseball cards from the 1890's showing up pretty consistently in grade, along with the odd explosion when a long-term collector decides to sell, it should give you a pretty fair inkling on how many copies of a 1960's comic book might be out there.

[WernerVonDoom]

The reason for the "BIG NUMBER" is that the HFH #1 9.8 is structurally flawless. Some people appreciate that in a comic book, which is probably why it is worth multiples of the 9.6 value. (even though Bruce's copy is a beauty )

 

Is it within your grasp to understand that perhaps not everyone in the world (CGC included) sees Q.P. as the be all and end all to a book's desirability ?

 

Yes! I couldn't agree more.