FF 1 9.4

[Aman619]

Your rationale for the 90% figure is based upon the assumption that any rational collector who has a high grade copy would immediately slab the book and put it up for sale since it would be foolish to be sitting on such a big investment. I agree that this line of logic would probably apply to you and to a lot of the other forum members. If you speak to a lot of long-term collectors, however, they are in for the long haul and don't really pay any attention to the daily ups and downs of the CGC market, have no interest in slabbing their books at this point in time, have no interest in selling their books at this point in time, pay more attention to Overstreet than GPA, still have a positive outlook on their books and not worried about a crash since they got into the market prior to the run-up in the 90's.

 

Bottom-line: still a ton of books out there in private collections waiting to be slab including low grade, mid grade, high grade, and super high grade! IMHO

 

this wasnt MY argument. OTHERS here have argued that from their personal perspective noone was still holding onto their raw HG keys.

 

I say many collectors still have them raw due to little interest in having them graded pr for selling. BUT - - I no longer think that more than a small handful are in actuality 9.4 and 9.6s

 

I used to feel exactly as you do...having been around and buying HG for 20 years now, I used to believe that there were tons of super HG keys all around and especially in my own collection. But I no longer feel so secure in MY books being 9.4s and 9.6s. And suggest you take a new look at some of the books you remember your friends buying over the years. You might just be as surprised as I was to find that over time, without ever leaving their nice mylars, they turned into 8.5s and 9.0s!!

 

Are they still NICE BOOKS worthy of collecting? Dam right they are. But are they 9.4 and 9.6 blockbusters? I now say "No way!" So we agree that lots of NICE books are yet to be graded for all the same reasons..... just that Im more and more confident that they will not be up to current (CGC) standards. A few yes. Not lots and lots of them. Keep in mind Im talking about the big Marvel and DC SA Keys from 1961 to 1963 only, and specifically in this thread, FF#1. Obviously as the SA went on more and more HG copies exist. And dont get me started about scarcity in grade of the Bronze age and up!

 

capisce?

[burntboy]

I used to feel exactly as you do...having been around and buying HG for 20 years now, I used to believe that there were tons of super HG keys all around and especially in my own collection. But I no longer feel so secure in MY books being 9.4s and 9.6s. And suggest you take a new look at some of the books you remember your friends buying over the years. You might just be as surprised as I was to find that over time, without ever leaving their nice mylars, they turned into 8.5s and 9.0s!!

 

Are they still NICE BOOKS worthy of collecting? Dam right they are. But are they 9.4 and 9.6 blockbusters? I now say "No way!" So we agree that lots of NICE books are yet to be graded for all the same reasons..... just that Im more and more confident that they will not be up to current (CGC) standards. A few yes. Not lots and lots of them. Keep in mind Im talking about the big Marvel and DC SA Keys from 1961 to 1963 only, and specifically in this thread, FF#1. Obviously as the SA went on more and more HG copies exist. And dont get me started about scarcity in grade of the Bronze age and up!

 

capisce?

 

i tend to agree with you on most of these points. when you focus on 1961 - 1963 HG marvels and DC's, it stands to reason that there aren't too many super HG copies out there.

 

we weren't buying multiple copies back then. even the best kept books probably got read once and then stored away to be read again in the future. there were no masterworks or archives , so you had to read the actual books again. the fanzines promoting back issues didn't come out until circa 1960. the collector hobby was just about ready to take off in earnest.

 

i kept my books in relatively great shape (better than most early 60's collectors) and while i have some beauties, i've only had a couple of 9.4's out of 40 - 50 slabs and those weren't the key origin issues. i would guess that 9.6 copies of early 60's books are very rare indeed. (hey, how many were even 9.6's while sitting in the racks??)

 

oh, i'm pretty sure there may another couple FF#1 in 9.6 out there somewhere, but my gut says that's about it. and the comment about how Tripps' 9.6 would grade out today is a very interesting one. folks who have held off for years may have waited too long to slab............all IMHO, of course.........

[RTBrandy]

not to get back on the topic of the auction, but has anybody looked at the [!@#%^&^] that the high bidder buys? and now he's [willing to] spend over $110k ?

 

Odd?

[AtomicPaul-migration]

I think that with the bid currently at $113,000.00 there's still about $37,000.00 headroom to work with for whoever wants to lift their leg high enough to pee with the big dogs and get their bid in for posterity before the reserve is met.

[Aman619]

yup!

get your thrill bids in now kids!!

[fantastic_four]

not to get back on the topic of the auction, but has anybody looked at the [!@#%^&^] that the high bidder buys? and now he's [willing to] spend over $110k ?

 

Odd?

 

If you mean bullet123, then no, it's not odd. He has a history of buying top-of-the-line books. I used to suspect he was "ghost town" in the CGC Registry but later found out ghost town is someone else.

[Murph]

Bullet123 has posted on the boards from time-to-time. Perhaps he'll comment on his FF collection?

 

Brian

[AtomicPaul-migration]

If I had $150,000 disposable dollars to sit on for five years, I'd have already popped the reserve and left it to someone with more money to take it from me. Even if not the highest graded copy in the census, if this hobby can avoid the fate of the coin hobby through the 90s, and that 9.6 copy stands up to the test of time in remaining the champion of the CGC FF1 census there's a strong likelyhood that this may easily become a $250,000 book in the not so distant future.

When you consider that a TTA 27 in NM- flew off comiclink at $20,000 and that VF/NM copies of TOS 39 and JIM 83 routinely sell in the $10,000 to $20,000 range, even a number as ponderous as $150,000 seems less formidable by comparison.

I might be wrong, but in my estimation, CGC must see the 9.6 FF1 as the "heavyweight champ", and probably the AF15 also, as far as Marvel's Silver age "WBA/WBC Championship" goes. There's only 1 of each. These must be very special books to stand apart from the eight or nine copies of the two books that they've graded 9.4.

I've got to believe that the graders would remember those two copies extremely well and be very judgemental in issuing any other submissions for those two books with any latitude before considering another 9.6 finding let alone a 9.8!!

 

My belief is that those two 9.6s, one AF15, one FF1 are safe as the "champs" for quite awhile with the same type of, "The Heavyweight Champion must be knocked down, not just outpointed" mindset that must enter somewhat into the equation when grading mega-books like this where .02 means a $50,000+ difference in value. In other words, CGC will have to see a clearly superior copy to either 9.6 before crowning a new champion. Whether one of either shows up (or exists) that is clearly superior to either 9.6 now, is the question. I think it's a longshot.

 

It's a different ballgame now. The rules and regulations are more stringent. Where are all the NM/MT copies of Action 1, Superman 1, Det. 1 & 27, etc. that Bob Overstreet put footnotes on the population of in his priceguides years ago under the entry in the price guide. He'd put for instance, "Action 1, 150 copies estimated to exist, 5 copies known in NM/MT". None of these or any of the other "NM/MTs" have found their way into CGC as of yet? They're all in the hands of collectors who have no interest in submitting them? Or are there just far fewer of them around that we even began to suspect in the upper grade ranges when carefully scrutinized for grade and restoration?

[RTBrandy]

not to get back on the topic of the auction, but has anybody looked at the [!@#%^&^] that the high bidder buys? and now he's [willing to] spend over $110k ?

 

Odd?

 

If you mean bullet123, then no, it's not odd. He has a history of buying top-of-the-line books. I used to suspect he was "ghost town" in the CGC Registry but later found out ghost town is someone else.

 

Actually I was referring to Sonnyparrot.

 

I never understood the concept of thrill bidding...or, more accurately, I guess I considered it more of a concept....

[Bullet123]

I like High grade key books. I started just buying high grade books but have found I would like to have a handful of key books that I remember AF15 FF1 Richie Rich1 I am not worried about more being found because a great book: QP historical significance sentimental value. (I dont care what the book is I have to like looking at it.) will always be worth something! more?? great but not why I collect how about you?

[greaterfool]

i was thinking 150 of us board members could each chip in $1,000 to buy this book - any takers?

[Aces]

Oh great...

Get Redhook's scissors and we can cut it up into 150 pieces.

[Crowzilla]

When you consider that a TTA 27 in NM- flew off comiclink at $20,000 and that VF/NM copies of TOS 39 and JIM 83 routinely sell in the $10,000 to $20,000 range, even a number as ponderous as $150,000 seems less formidable by comparison.

 

Although this sounds like a good theory, in reality it unfortunately doens't stand up due to diminishing returns/economies of scale. The number of collectors who are willing AND able (as opposed to just willing) to spend six figures on a comic is much smaller than most people think. The number of people who are willing to spend five figures on a comic is probably 20-25x that of the six figure pool. If the six figure spenders were to grow to the size of 10% of the five figure spenders, then I think it would be possible to see some real growth and activity. The fact that solid unrestored copies of Action #1 and Detective #27 sold in the last Heritage auction for around 20% below guide shows that even in the mid-five figures there starts to be real resistance. Another example would be the Allentown copy of Detective #38 CGC graded 9.4 - certainly one would think it a safe investment if ever there was one. But when sold at Heritage the high bidder was a dealer who still has it sitting unsold in his inventory.

 

Where are all the NM/MT copies of Action 1, Superman 1, Det. 1 & 27, etc. that Bob Overstreet put footnotes on the population of in his priceguides years ago under the entry in the price guide. He'd put for instance, "Action 1, 150 copies estimated to exist, 5 copies known in NM/MT".

 

Two things:

1) Bob was using estimates as to what may or may not exist - best guesses from his and other top dealers inputs. He certainly wasn't using a formal census.

2) There are at least two copies of Action #1 out there that will grade better than 8.5 (the Mile High and a non-pedigree one). The Larson one might also, but I'm certainly willing to bet it will at least tie the 8.5 on the census. We are still at the point in time where these hidden copies are only going to surface when it is time for the copies to hit the market - and if you think we've seen even 1/3 of all the copies that will hit the market in the few years CGC has been around, then you are nuts.

[FFB]

Who owns the Edgar Church Action #1? Geppi? Someone else? Does anyone have a picture of it? What about the Allentown Detective #27?

 

***edited to replace "Mile High" with "Edgar Church." Arrgh, I hate it when I do that. *****

[rob_react]

Who owns the Mile High Action #1? Geppi? Someone else? Does anyone have a picture of it? What about the Allentown Detective #27?

 

"The Dentist" owns both of them...

 

Steve F. from Metropolis pegged the MH Action #1 at 9.2. I don't know about the 'Tec #27, but based on the other Allentown books I've seen it's probably insanely nice.

[Rip]

Dave Anderson owns both....he used to own the MH tec 27 but upgraded.

(If I remember the tec 27 is around 9.4-9.6)

[Aman619]

same guy. The Dentist.

[FFB]

Does he ever display them? Also, is he an anti-CGC guy, or does he just not want to slab these particular copies? Anyone know?

 

Who owns the Mile High Action #1? Geppi? Someone else? Does anyone have a picture of it? What about the Allentown Detective #27?

 

"The Dentist" owns both of them...

 

Steve F. from Metropolis pegged the MH Action #1 at 9.2. I don't know about the 'Tec #27, but based on the other Allentown books I've seen it's probably insanely nice.

[Crowzilla]

Does he ever display them? Also, is he an anti-CGC guy, or does he just not want to slab these particular copies? Anyone know?

 

He doesn't display them, but has been known to show them to friends from time to time.

 

I don't believe he has ever come out one way or the other on CGC, but why would he possibly want to spend $2,000 to get the two books graded if he has no intention of selling them at this time?

(Especially considering any interested parties would be willing to pay for the books whether they were slabbed or not).

[AtomicPaul-migration]

There are at least two copies of Action #1 out there that will grade better than 8.5 (the Mile High and a non-pedigree one). The Larson one might also, but I'm certainly willing to bet it will at least tie the 8.5 on the census.

 

What are the chances that these hidden "million dollar slumbering giants" won't have applied color touch and/or corners mended, glue applied as do other Mile Highs? Work that was performed many years ago, before the current owners-collectors bought them from the original owners-dealers, when such efforts to slightly improve already beautiful books were not looked upon with disfavor?