What’s your opinion on long term pricing trends?

[passion4comics]

I missed the most obvious when asking this question. As stated before me, look at coin, stamp and sports card collecting. Coins and stamps have a numismatic value to them and it’s almost guaranteed that the entities creating them will be around for more than a life time. I think it was in the 90s where Marvel almost went under like a swimming rat having a boulder tied to it.

 

With both of these (coins and stamps) I’ve noticed that a parent will introduce them to it and foster it. Will parents foster comic books? I don’t even think you can nail most teens to the floor with a book and expect them to read it. If they can’t text on it or play it online they don’t seem to be interested. Will kids today be interested, if they do decide to read, a long drawn out series from 1-400 or would they be happier with the miniseries: read 4 issues and you’re done with the story.

 

Sports cards’ collecting is still around. I’m not sure how big it is. With sports cards you’ll have a single card with a single player for that year. Not 60 different variations of the same thing being sold where you have no idea what to buy. Could you imagine a Derek Jeter card in 2010 and in 2011 there are 30 different Jeter cards to collect?

 

I blame the publishers. While they had steady sales from long run issues they saw money in having issue #1’s on the stand that would sell multiple copies on speculation. Many businesses have made the error of profits NOW and in the long run have sucked all the air out of the room to suffocate themselves. Consider the #1 miniseries all over the stands as a CDO. A garbage investment with the lure of it being profitable later on. What happened to all of the Brokerages when it popped? If Marvel went out of business next year what would happen to all of the interests in back issues of Fantastic Four in 10 years? I don’t think the movies are “Marvel” comics. I believe they are a separate company created specific for these movies and selling the rights to them.

 

How is reading today in this generation? Barns and Noble and Borders have seen declining sales. I looked within a 20 mile radius of my house and in the last 5 years both comic book shops have folded. While I like the idea of holding something in my hand like a comic or book over a silly Kindle doesn’t seem to be the trend. The comics that we collectors want as key issues costs as much as a high end sports car in an investment grade.

 

I bought one of those books that have around 25 issues in them. They are in black and white! No color!!!! What junk! I love my comics when I was younger and I'm looking for every reason to get back into them.

 

[the blob]

Tarzan's first appearance was in All-Story October 1912. There are about 20 known copies to exist, ballpark VF price is $40,000+. Other early Tarzan pulps are also very expensive. (The novel came later,FYI.)

 

There's another Conan movie in the works. The guy from Pixar is doing a John Carter of Mars movie, coming out next year. There was also talk of a new Doc Savage movie, don't know what's happened to that one. Sam Raimi wants to take a crack at The Shadow, and Del Toro was going to make a movie based on the famous H.P. Lovecraft story "At the Mountains of Madness."

 

DC recently brought back Doc Savage and a few other pulp heroes, but I don't know which comic book they're in.

 

Tarzan has pulp origings but most people do not think of the character that way. He had some books, but it was mainly the movies. Not so much on TV anymore, but that was a staple of saturday/sunday afternoon TV when I was a kid in the 70's. Heck, Tarzan comics were out there for a good 30 or so years and were fairly popular.

 

I just think the racial condescension and colonialist view of that whole character/series really couldn't remain too popular into th P.C. 80's and 90's, though they, have, of course tried to revamp it to make it more P.C., but you still have a white guy in the jungle ruling it, etc. etc.

 

Zorro was another pulp creation, but most folks associate it with Zorro movies.

 

Perhaps because you need to be in your 80's to have ever read a Tarzan or Zorro pulp off the newstand rack!

 

Spiderman, Superman, Batman, etc. had huge movies but people know they have comic book origins.

[the blob]

I think it was in the 90s where Marvel almost went under like a swimming rat having a boulder tied to it.

 

-rtemple

-----------

 

my understanding is that in 1997, marvel publishing (comics, etc.) was still a profitable and viable business, but was being used as collateral for a lot of bad money losing acquisitions by perlman under the "marvel" umbrella so the whole shebang went bankrupt. If Marvel was still marvel of its pre-Perlman days it would have been fine. declining profits along with the industry, but profitable.

 

at least this is my recollection from reading about this at the time.

[the blob]

Could you imagine a Derek Jeter card in 2010 and in 2011 there are 30 different Jeter cards to collect?

 

-rtemple

--

 

that was exactly the case 10 or 15 years ago when there were 10-20 companies pumping out cards.

 

to a lesser extent it is today, but with MLB restricting licensing to topps, I suspect there are many fewer jeter cards out there, or it's jeter in a non-team jersey or something.

[passion4comics]

Could you imagine a Derek Jeter card in 2010 and in 2011 there are 30 different Jeter cards to collect?

 

-rtemple

--

 

that was exactly the case 10 or 15 years ago when there were 10-20 companies pumping out cards.

 

to a lesser extent it is today, but with MLB restricting licensing to topps, I suspect there are many fewer jeter cards out there, or it's jeter in a non-team jersey or something.

 

Then eventually an industry corrects itself? There is hope!!!!

 

 

[the blob]

I

I blame the publishers. While they had steady sales from long run issues they saw money in having issue #1’s on the stand that would sell multiple copies on speculation. Many businesses have made the error of profits NOW and in the long run have sucked all the air out of the room to suffocate themselves. Consider the #1 miniseries all over the stands as a CDO. A garbage investment with the lure of it being profitable later on. What happened to all of the Brokerages when it popped? If Marvel went out of business next year what would happen to all of the interests in back issues of Fantastic Four in 10 years? I don’t think the movies are “Marvel” comics. I believe they are a separate company created specific for these movies and selling the rights to them..

 

marvel and DC are not selling regular, non-variant, new comics as an "investment." there is no lure of profit. once or twice a month a book or two put out among ALL the publishers (and rarely DC or marvel) sells for a premium over cover in the aftermarket and that is often only temporary. for the collector/reader, BUYING NEW COMICS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT unless you ONLY buy the 1 or 2 you think have a chance "to go up" (or you are buying solely to slab, but honestly, i don't think there's any profit anymore in that unless you get 9.9s or 10s and I REALLY don't think the companies are catering to that tiny niche, otherwise they would do things to cover stock to make even 9.8s very hard to get straight from the distributor's box so there can be news about a 2 month old comic selling for $1000). honestly, i really do think nearly everyone who in any way regularly buys new comics is fully aware of this even if non-comic collectors still think "everything goes up."

 

The #1 in a mini is NOT BEING SOLD as an investment, but as a way to sell a few more copies, maybe someone who doesn't want to start of with cpatain america again at issue 608 might be interest in a 4 issue mini, or to suck in the deicated x-men fan by getting them to buy yet another X book this month in the form of a mini rather than starting a whole new title that might get cancelled. this is not 1982 or even 1992 where people were deluded that they would some day sell all those new comics at multiples of cover!

[MisterX]

Tarzan's first appearance was in All-Story October 1912. There are about 20 known copies to exist, ballpark VF price is $40,000+. Other early Tarzan pulps are also very expensive. (The novel came later,FYI.)

 

I've read that much, by why does Wikipedia refer to Burroughs first work as a novel? And they actually refer to All-Story as a pulp magazine. Novel's, pulps and magazines are all different formats, aren't they?

 

That particular issue was dedicated to publishing the entire "novel," that is to say, the entire,complete story. It was also the first pulp story Burroughs published under his own name. Very iconic cover, I think the most recent swipe was the cover of Planetary #17.

 

Pulps were considered magazines, but they are not the same size as today's magazines.

 

There are quite a few boardies with more pulp knowledge and collecting experience than me. One of those guys may be able to give you better information. Bangzoom, ComicsnERB, bronzilla, scrooge, fuelman. There's more, I'm sure.

[Snake Eyes]

 

 

[passion4comics]

 

marvel and DC are not selling regular, non-variant, new comics as an "investment." there is no lure of profit. once or twice a month a book or two put out among ALL the publishers (and rarely DC or marvel) sells for a premium over cover in the aftermarket and that is often only temporary. for the collector/reader, BUYING NEW COMICS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT unless you ONLY buy the 1 or 2 you think have a chance "to go up" (or you are buying solely to slab, but honestly, i don't think there's any profit anymore in that unless you get 9.9s or 10s and I REALLY don't think the companies are catering to that tiny niche, otherwise they would do things to cover stock to make even 9.8s very hard to get straight from the distributor's box so there can be news about a 2 month old comic selling for $1000). honestly, i really do think nearly everyone who in any way regularly buys new comics is fully aware of this even if non-comic collectors still think "everything goes up."

 

Excellent reply! Thanks

[Dr_Neff]

Read some comics and put more money in your 401. Leave comics alone.

 

[comicwiz]

Tarzan's first appearance was in All-Story October 1912. There are about 20 known copies to exist, ballpark VF price is $40,000+. Other early Tarzan pulps are also very expensive. (The novel came later,FYI.)

 

I've read that much, by why does Wikipedia refer to Burroughs first work as a novel? And they actually refer to All-Story as a pulp magazine. Novel's, pulps and magazines are all different formats, aren't they?

 

That particular issue was dedicated to publishing the entire "novel," that is to say, the entire,complete story. It was also the first pulp story Burroughs published under his own name. Very iconic cover, I think the most recent swipe was the cover of Planetary #17.

 

Pulps were considered magazines, but they are not the same size as today's magazines.

 

There are quite a few boardies with more pulp knowledge and collecting experience than me. One of those guys may be able to give you better information. Bangzoom, ComicsnERB, bronzilla, scrooge, fuelman. There's more, I'm sure.

 

Fair enough. And I'm not at all up to speed on pulps either. I also agree with blob's post, however this kind of seems like the disagreement over Obadiah Oldbuck, and whether it should even be considered a comic, much less the first.

 

Out of curiousity (and to make my point more succinct) I sifted through the first 20 or so results from a Google search and of the 7 relevant matches: 3 called it a magazine, 1 novel, 1 pulp magazine, 2 no specific mention.

 

It may well be that there just aren't enough copies that exist to allow a proper determination. Or it's been out of sight out of mind for such a long time (nearly 100 years since it was published) that no one has been able to definitively pin down whether it's one or the other.

 

If the category of pulp is as loosely defined as Overstreet was in allowing odd-format Platinum books into the category of "comics", then I guess it's really a case of whether modern-day opinion accepts or rejects that dated body of research.

[Batty Scrooge]

Read some comics and put more money in your 401. Leave comics alone.

 

I look at comics as an alternative to Gold holdings as a hedge against inflation. For me, I would rather have a nice looking book or slab on my wall than a gold bar buried in my backyard

 

Not accounting for inflation, and based solely on the health of the comic market and supply/demand, I expect prices to stall, or decline for a few years before going back up again as trends change. What todays kids aren't into, tomorrows will be. The difference will be they won't know the joy of driving their bike to a comic book store to get the newest Batman and finish the story, they will keep refreshing their iPads or Kindles to get the newest issue. Books and printed media are dieing, soon kids won't even know what a book is other than something they read on a Kindle.

 

During this transition and price decline many collectors will fold like the comic book stores of the 90s, and many collections will disappear, lower supply.

 

Once this passes, comics will take up a more of a role of historical significance than a collectors item, and this new market will drastically drive prices up on high grade books.

 

Within 10 years a full color Kindle type device will be available for the cost of todays new Comics. The device will be flexible and readable outside as a real comic is today, while the cost of printing and transporting printed media will continue to increase.

 

The end of the printed comic will push prices up for todays collectors, as we desire a real book, with real old pages smell, to hold and display on the wall.

 

So prices rise for 15-20 years, begin to stall out, then decline like people view pulps as collectibles today, and than start to dramatically increase in year 30.

[comicwiz]

Read some comics and put more money in your 401. Leave comics alone.

 

I look at comics as an alternative to Gold holdings as a hedge against inflation. For me, I would rather have a nice looking book or slab on my wall than a gold bar buried in my backyard

 

Not accounting for inflation, and based solely on the health of the comic market and supply/demand, I expect prices to stall, or decline for a few years before going back up again as trends change. What todays kids aren't into, tomorrows will be. The difference will be they won't know the joy of driving their bike to a comic book store to get the newest Batman and finish the story, they will keep refreshing their iPads or Kindles to get the newest issue. Books and printed media are dieing, soon kids won't even know what a book is other than something they read on a Kindle.

 

During this transition and price decline many collectors will fold like the comic book stores of the 90s, and many collections will disappear, lower supply.

 

Once this passes, comics will take up a more of a role of historical significance than a collectors item, and this new market will drastically drive prices up on high grade books.

 

Within 10 years a full color Kindle type device will be available for the cost of todays new Comics. The device will be flexible and readable outside as a real comic is today, while the cost of printing and transporting printed media will continue to increase.

 

The end of the printed comic will push prices up for todays collectors, as we desire a real book, with real old pages smell, to hold and display on the wall.

 

So prices rise for 15-20 years, begin to stall out, then decline like people view pulps as collectibles today, and than start to dramatically increase in year 30.

 

I think the one oversight most people make in this white hot technological age, especially with all the available consumer electronics, is that we will need to pay up, and pay up handsomely to continue using these devices. We pay once in acquiring the technology. Pay twice (or more) in disposing them when they are no longer operable. Pay tenfold to supply them with the required energy to operate them.

 

There is an energy crisis already upon us, and I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that a time will come when we will be capped on our consumption, and/or be expected to pay somewhere between 15-20% of our wages to continue to operate our electronic fixes.

 

The alternatives will be: to pony up the cash; move toward energy conservation approaches; seek energy generating alternatives to move your consumption habits off the grid; or use a throwback strategy that ditches the kindle or iPad in preference for the indispensable format of print.

 

Take your pick, but in such an alternate future, there will be less consumer goods that are energy-hogs, and more that are energy independent. And it would make sense in such an alternate future to seek out a recycling approach as opposed to having to reproduce what's been already made, and could be purchased locally or online.

[MisterX]

Tarzan's first appearance was in All-Story October 1912. There are about 20 known copies to exist, ballpark VF price is $40,000+. Other early Tarzan pulps are also very expensive. (The novel came later,FYI.)

 

I've read that much, by why does Wikipedia refer to Burroughs first work as a novel? And they actually refer to All-Story as a pulp magazine. Novel's, pulps and magazines are all different formats, aren't they?

 

That particular issue was dedicated to publishing the entire "novel," that is to say, the entire,complete story. It was also the first pulp story Burroughs published under his own name. Very iconic cover, I think the most recent swipe was the cover of Planetary #17.

 

Pulps were considered magazines, but they are not the same size as today's magazines.

 

There are quite a few boardies with more pulp knowledge and collecting experience than me. One of those guys may be able to give you better information. Bangzoom, ComicsnERB, bronzilla, scrooge, fuelman. There's more, I'm sure.

 

Fair enough. And I'm not at all up to speed on pulps either. I also agree with blob's post, however this kind of seems like the disagreement over Obadiah Oldbuck, and whether it should even be considered a comic, much less the first.

 

Out of curiousity (and to make my point more succinct) I sifted through the first 20 or so results from a Google search and of the 7 relevant matches: 3 called it a magazine, 1 novel, 1 pulp magazine, 2 no specific mention.

 

It may well be that there just aren't enough copies that exist to allow a proper determination. Or it's been out of sight out of mind for such a long time (nearly 100 years since it was published) that no one has been able to definitively pin down whether it's one or the other.

 

If the category of pulp is as loosely defined as Overstreet was in allowing odd-format Platinum books into the category of "comics", then I guess it's really a case of whether modern-day opinion accepts or rejects that dated body of research.

 

It is a pulp. It is one, if not the, Holy Grail of pulps.

 

Here's a link to erbzine.com, a Burrough fan web site, talking about a copy of All-Story Oct 1912 being sold in a Heritage auction. It should address your doubts.

 

http://www.erbzine.com/gw/GridleyWave298.pdf

 

If it doesn't, go over to the Golden Age forum and find the "I'll pound you to a Pulp" thread. Ask the board members there if All-Story Oct 1912 is a pulp or not.

 

 

 

[Batty Scrooge]

Read some comics and put more money in your 401. Leave comics alone.

 

I look at comics as an alternative to Gold holdings as a hedge against inflation. For me, I would rather have a nice looking book or slab on my wall than a gold bar buried in my backyard

 

Not accounting for inflation, and based solely on the health of the comic market and supply/demand, I expect prices to stall, or decline for a few years before going back up again as trends change. What todays kids aren't into, tomorrows will be. The difference will be they won't know the joy of driving their bike to a comic book store to get the newest Batman and finish the story, they will keep refreshing their iPads or Kindles to get the newest issue. Books and printed media are dieing, soon kids won't even know what a book is other than something they read on a Kindle.

 

During this transition and price decline many collectors will fold like the comic book stores of the 90s, and many collections will disappear, lower supply.

 

Once this passes, comics will take up a more of a role of historical significance than a collectors item, and this new market will drastically drive prices up on high grade books.

 

Within 10 years a full color Kindle type device will be available for the cost of todays new Comics. The device will be flexible and readable outside as a real comic is today, while the cost of printing and transporting printed media will continue to increase.

 

The end of the printed comic will push prices up for todays collectors, as we desire a real book, with real old pages smell, to hold and display on the wall.

 

So prices rise for 15-20 years, begin to stall out, then decline like people view pulps as collectibles today, and than start to dramatically increase in year 30.

 

I think the one oversight most people make in this white hot technological age, especially with all the available consumer electronics, is that we will need to pay up, and pay up handsomely to continue using these devices. We pay once in acquiring the technology. Pay twice (or more) in disposing them when they are no longer operable. Pay tenfold to supply them with the required energy to operate them.

 

There is an energy crisis already upon us, and I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that a time will come when we will be capped on our consumption, and/or be expected to pay somewhere between 15-20% of our wages to continue to operate our electronic fixes.

 

The alternatives will be: to pony up the cash; move toward energy conservation approaches; seek energy generating alternatives to move your consumption habits off the grid; or use a throwback strategy that ditches the kindle or iPad in preference for the indispensable format of print.

 

Take your pick, but in such an alternate future, there will be less consumer goods that are energy-hogs, and more that are energy independent. And it would make sense in such an alternate future to seek out a recycling approach as opposed to having to reproduce what's been already made, and could be purchased locally or online.

 

I see your point about paying up for technology when it comes to iPads and smartphones, but it will get to the point when the technology is so good you won't be looking to upgrade every year. I guess the iPad wasn't the best reference, but look at the Kindles features and its cost since the first model was released for $459 a couple years ago, and today you can get one for $129. Soon basic tech like a kindle will be so cheap it can be given away free with the hope of selling books for it. I can see going into Barnes and Noble and paying $9.99 for a Kindle with a book I want on it, and digitally downloading after that for $8.99.

 

As for power, I don't see any reason solar panels wouldn't be good enough to fully power a Kindle in a few years time. Also, its already cheaper to digitally distribute than to physically ship. If and when there is an energy crisis, the unit cost of energy will increase for both electric power and diesel type fuels at the same rate. If the diesel fuel were cheaper than the electricity as you envision, why wouldn't someone use the diesel to produce electric power thus driving the prices back to equilibrium per unit cost?

[fantastic_four]

The reason we haven't solved the energy crisis is politics, not research and development. It isn't a matter of whether we'll find alternative energy sources--we've found them--it's just a matter of picking which one and spending the money on it. We'll be fine, although we may suffer for brief periods of time.

 

I like the idea of solar highways, i.e. replacing roads with solar panels that can support the weight of vehicles.

 

[Nick Fury-migration]

Couple points on the future of comic books:

 

The purchase of Marvel by Disney is likely to 3-5 year continuing runup in Back Issue prices as these characters become more likely to be a part of mainstream culture through Movies, Cartoons and even Television shows. We are already seeing new "keys" and "minor keys" created such as Tales of Suspense 52, 57, 59, 63, Avengers 4, Iron Fist 14, etc. This is likely to continue as the chances of a lesser known character "making it big" has just increased dramatically.

 

I question how long we will continue to differentiate between an 9.4, 9.6 and 9.8 for non-key books. Does one less nearly-invisible-to-the-naked-eye flaw really make a book worth twice as much? I think at some point with the ultra-high grades its not comic collecting so much as trophy hunting.

 

 

[comicwiz]

The reason we haven't solved the energy crisis is politics, not research and development. It isn't a matter of whether we'll find alternative energy sources--we've found them--it's just a matter of picking which one and spending the money on it. We'll be fine, although we may suffer for brief periods of time.

 

I like the idea of solar highways, i.e. replacing roads with solar panels that can support the weight of vehicles.

 

 

One of my first jobs out of University involved helping decommission a department of national defense base. A number of the buildings on the base had solar panels, but they had been disabled many years before my civilian duty commenced. I guess at the time it didn't really faze my why they weren't in use, but later when I started researching/exploring "green" energy alternatives, I began to discover numerous studies and sources describing how solar panels could actually be counterintuitive to reducing our carbon footprint and global warming.

 

It's said the toxic chemical known as nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is released into atmosphere wherever solar panels are installed (a chemical which wasn't even present before the solar panels renaissance). NF3 is said to be 17,000 times worse than Co2, and lasts 5 times longer than carbon in atmosphere. I believe a secondary, yet equally serious drawback, is that most "green" energy initiatives are initiated with very little thought or inspection into the area where panels are manufactured.

 

As with many short-sighted infrastructure projects, especially those put in place to create an impression of moving towards a sustainable energy future, cost is almost always a factor. Panels sourced from parts of Asia and in countries where strict standards aren't in place to regulate the use of harmful chemicals usually means a blind alley scenario where we're stuck with having to not only breath the chemicals that are released in atmosphere when the panels are in operation, but we are also stuck with having to dispose spent panels which contain some of the nastiest and toxic chemicals on the planet.

[NewEnglandGothic]

Sam Raimi wants to take a crack at The Shadow

I would love to see that. I really didn't think the Alec Baldwin movie was that bad, but only bought it when it was in the $5 Walmart bin.

Yes, I was the one who bought Timecop(Sam Raimi production) instead, in the newest $5 Walmart bin.

[EastEnd]

Comic book pricing will implode when the superhero as a genre implodes. Absent that, a good number of fans will always gravitate back to the origins of the characters. I became a fan of Superman as a kid by watching the George Reeves Superman series on television, not because I read him in comics. I sought the comics out later.

 

Also, I don't think pulps are very comparable to comics. Pulps are first and foremost anthologies. Most of them don't have popular recurring characters and so the only reason to seek a particular issue out is if it has an eye-catching cover or a particular writer that has some significance. Those pulps that do have popular recurring characters are still highly prized in the market... and while they may not necessarily be appreciating, I don't sense that their depreciating either.

 

Pulps were replaced by digests by the way... not new technologies. Post-WWII, with the atomic age, cold war, and space age all emerging, silly stories about Buck Rogers adventures were replaced by more sophisticated and timely stories. The pulps grew up.