1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[AtomicPaul-migration]

BINGO!!!

Also, let's be honest - what occurs in the mainstream to get people excited about coin collecting? The only thing I can think of would be the introduction of the new state quarters

 

Excellent, Dave! State Quarters and State Quarters alone were responsible for the Renaissance in coin collection in the last few years. Most of the new collectors that they drew into the hobby have no idea about the events that led to negative public sentiment in the 80s and 90s over mostly coin grading issues.

[delekkerste]

Wasn't there a recession in 1991? (correlation to declining coin prices perhaps? ) Didn't comics undergo a huge run up in the recession of 2001-2003?

 

Was there slabbing in 1991? We're not talking macroeconomics here, we're talking what happens once slabbing is introduced into a hobby. Besides, the slabbed coin market peaked in 1989, before the recession, and the slide continued into the mid-1990s, well after the recession ended. Your argument is totally off-base.

 

 

Also, let's be honest - what occurs in the mainstream to get people excited about coin collecting?

 

Dave, I'm shocked that you would subscribe to this very comics-centric point of view. I'm sorry, the world does not revolve around comics for most people. People get WAY excited about coin collecting in a way that comic fanboys don't understand. Someone paid $7.6 million for a coin in 2002 - that's "f you" money. No, that's "f your puny Action #1, Marvel Comics #1, Tec #27" money.

 

 

I do think that a "crash" is impossible AS THERE ISN'T ENOUGH LIQUIDITY

 

Simply wrong. You can have a crash even in one-of-a-kind items. Items do not even need to transact for there to be a crash. We don't live in a world where prices are measured in historical costs and accounting fiction, we live in a world where value changes in real-time. On September 12, 2001, I can tell you that the value of the World Trade Center was not what Larry Silverstein paid for it 7 weeks prior to 9/11. When the art market went into the tank in the early '90s, Van Gogh's "The Portrait of Dr. Gachet" was worth nowhere near $82.5 million even though it was not sold during that time (in fact, it appears to have been lost or destroyed and has never resurfaced).

 

For those who discount anything outside of the comics world, just look at Italian-Treasure's horrific ASM losses. Tell him that his losses weren't supposed to be theoretically possible given the Internet, bullet-proofing of HG keys, global participation in the comics hobby, etc. And let's not nitpick about the definition of a crash - the coin market crash is recognized as such, even though it took more time than what you have told me you believe is a crash. Let's just say that a major decline in the slabbed comics market is far from ruled out on liquidity grounds.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

And I have to say something to Gene. If you're convinced that the market is going to crash and that we are all doomed..that we are going to be victims of our own greed, ignorance or whatever you believe, then why don't you get out, cash out your art work, comics and etc...and leave the hobby ?!! -

 

Maybe because it's a HOBBY to him, and not some bizarro investment/speculative endeavor? Any comics I buy now, are worth what I pay for them from a hobby standpoint, and I think Gene does the same.

 

If you're worried about losing your shirt over a potential "comic book crash", then it's no longer a hobby.

[joe_collector]

3 MILLIONTH coin!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? How many comics have CGC graded to date? 500K? (Valiantman . . . Valiantman . . . )

 

You do realize that coin grading stated up in the late-80's and CGC commenced operations in 2000?

 

Do that math and then mention its "lack of relevance to comics".

[BachelorOfComix]

Maybe because it's a HOBBY to him, and not some bizarro investment/speculative endeavor? Any comics I buy now, are worth what I pay for them from a hobby standpoint, and I think Gene does the same.

Damnit, I sometimes overpay for comics I love. I guess that makes me a no good speculator but if you 2 do it, it's okay!

[delekkerste]

Maybe because it's a HOBBY to him, and not some bizarro investment/speculative endeavor? Any comics I buy now, are worth what I pay for them from a hobby standpoint, and I think Gene does the same.

 

Exactly. I guess I just have less "skin" in the game (excuse the pun) than Mike, not having tattooed my body with images of various superheroes.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

Exactly. I guess I just have less "skin" in the game

 

There's one thing that everyone should realize. If a severe downturn in comic values would hurt you financially, then you need to find a hobby, as you're either a dealer or amassing an investment portfolio.

[dam60]

3 MILLIONTH coin!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? How many comics have CGC graded to date? 500K? (Valiantman . . . Valiantman . . . )

 

You do realize that coin grading stated up in the late-80's and CGC commenced operations in 2000?

 

Do that math and then mention its "lack of relevance to comics".

 

JC - let's do some math then. Let's assume that the article was written in 1995 (I'm too lazy to look it up).

 

Then let's say that coin grading started in "late-80s" let's say 1985? So in 10 years they graded 3mm coins? Do you want to say that that averages 300K in a year? Now let's look at that same number for CGC. I will be you that the coin number will be a lot higher.

 

DAM

[joe_collector]

JC - let's do some math then. Let's assume that the article was written in 1995 (I'm too lazy to look it up).

 

Actually I think it was 2001.

 

The numbers are still weighted towards the coin grading at the present time, but also keep in mind that as the years have gone by, Valiantman has noted an increase in overall submissions.

 

Just like in coins, more employees and greater efficiencies have CGC grading more in Year 4 than in Year 1, and the Lord only knows how many they'll be pumping out in Year 16.

[Marvelous]

This is not directed at anyone in particular. Just my own thoughts on this subject.

 

So, if a person who collects and enjoys reading old comics as well as current modern comics off the shelf also speculates on those same comics he enjoys reading and is setting on about $100k worth of mostly key bronze comics with some silver and key modern thrown in when should they sell to avoid what happened to those poor victims in the coin market? Maybe they should sell when the Punisher, Spidey, and Blade movies come out this year or perhaps next year when Batman and Fantastic Four release? If you bought a MS #5 for $300 3-4 years ago and just seen one sell on-line for almost $1,200 would you sell it now? Is this the top of the bubble and values of bronze and key modern comics can be expected to loose 70-90% of their values (like the coins did in the 80s) in the near future? Is interest in comics as a form of entertainment about ready to collapse? I don't think so. I think with all the movies and video games exposure comics are more popular than ever. I bet Spidey 2 will out sell Spidey 1's 400 million dollar box office take. I see no decline in popularity of comic book collecting market. Coins, sportscards etc... are totally different animals than comic books. I collected coins and matchbox cars as a kid, but don't have any fond memories of a specific coin or matchbox car I once owned like I do of the first comics I ever read. That could be just me, but I doubt it. Superman, Batman, Spidey, Fantastic Four have now spanned decades and have attracted many generations of fans and continue to do so. As someone else said in these threads 70 yo man who collects coins doesn't look at an old mercury dime and reminisce about the time he spent that exact same dime on a soda as a kid 60 years ago. It might be just me, but I don't see any information that worries me. I see a lot of positive stuff happening in the industry. There are some great artist and writers out there producing high quality stuff. Sure, Marvel and DC also put out a bunch of [!@#%^&^], but true comic readers know how to avoid buying it and it will die on the vines. I am as stoked now to go to my LCS every Wednesday to pick up the new comics as I was when I was a kid. I can't wait for the new Super Hero movies come out. There is a lot to cheer about and to be optimistic about if you love comics. Don't let thoughts of impending doom and gloom ruin a perfectly good hobby and take the joy out of it.

[joe_collector]

As someone else said in these threads 70 yo man who collects coins doesn't look at an old mercury dime and reminisce about the time he spent that exact same dime on a soda as a kid 60 years ago.

 

And as many others have said on here, sportscards are a nostalgia-based collectible, and sometimes even more potent than comics.

 

When I'm searching through sportscards for relatives I sometimes see a baseball card I used to really like, and many times this evokes cherished memories, like George Brett crushing that Gossage fastball to end the Yankees hopes.

 

In terms of Americana, baseball and sportscards have a much greater nostalgic pull than comics ever will or ever did, but those of us insulated in our little "comic book world" would naturally fail to see this.

[Marvelous]

It wasn't in spite Gene, but your "NOOOOOOO!!!!!!! For the umpteenth time..." comment was a pretty hair-trigger reaction to my post, as evidenced by how quickly you reconsidered what you wrote and edited it.

 

Anyhow, I was wrong when I said no one had brought up the dynamics I introduced...FF pointed them out just before I did. And if you don't think that the internet protects or cushions against a decline, I say YOU'RE WRONG. It does just that by opening up the consumer base to a cross-section of collectors 'round the world, moderating the effects of a recession here, a big convention there, a new collection surfacing over there, etc.,.

 

A simple example of this principle in play is the current strength of the pound and euro vs. the dollar, which obviously puts European collectors at an advantage. And from 1st-hand experience I can tell you they're buying US comics by the pound (or euro, as appro! ). I have one customer that even asks me if he can have a "window" of time to pay for his purchases as he chases the dollar!

 

Without the net a seller would only be marketing their product to those that they can contact in person, at shows, thru trade journals, or via mail-order catalogues, a somewhat limited audience. But as it is, the net has increased the collector/consumer base to such a level that it, in itself, would be enough to moderate prices against drastic reductions...

 

Makes perfect sense to me.

 

BTW received the books yesterday and they were awesome. Great packing job! I wish all the comics I bought were packed that well.

[qualitycomix]

A few points:

 

1) Didn't we already have a crash/correction in the comics market a few years

back?

 

2) The coin market is fundamentally different than the comics market in this respect: The coin market is made of gold/silver etc. These metals are traded on the stock exchanges and therefore, the coins' values are loosely and indirectly tied to the value of it's metal. In addition, it's much easier to convince a stock market investor off of the street to sink some of his portfolio into coins rather than comics because of the details mentioned above.

 

3) Here's what is bad and I think what Gene may be alluding to: When outside investors ie thru JP, invest into a high grade valuable comic with say a 10K investment and then 1 year later, they see a sale of a similar book for 7K. Since they don't know that a) the comics market is much less liquid than the stock market and the game is to match the book with the RIGHT buyer and b) what the desirability of a book is so they dump the book on the market not long after the first book sold. This creates a perceived glut on the market. Word spreads that prices are dropping and more investors/speculators cash out. The knowledgeable collectors in the field will insulate the fall somewhat, but in the ultra high end market, there are a very limited number of collectors. Once their funds are exhausted, the high end market could fall precipitously.

 

However, I think the biggest assumption that JC and possibly Gene are making is that unknowledgable investors/speculators are CURRENTLY sinking big bucks into big dollar books (or small $$ books that have become big $$ books)

 

I don't know how true that statement is. How many investors has JP brought into the hobby? How many other newbies do you know of, personally? These are not attack questions to defend my position, but an objective look at the assumptions made based on what I perceive to be speculation of the current state of the market.

[joe_collector]

I don't know how true that statement is. How many investors has JP brought into the hobby? How many other newbies do you know of, personally? These are not attack questions to defend my position, but an objective look at the assumptions made based on what I perceive to be speculation of the current state of the market.

 

Well, back when I was running the CI hobby site, I used to get reams of newbie emails asking my advice on "what was the best investment?" and "Is this a good buy?" emails.

 

These bozos wouldn't know a comic book from a cook book, yet here they were tossing serious cash into comics simply because they had been fed a line of BS about "guaranteed to increase in value".

 

Trust me, there's a lot of people like that still out there, with the mistaken impression that CGC books 'even the playing field" and allow rank newbies to invest in plastic slabs for guaranteed returns.

[delekkerste]

2) The coin market is fundamentally different than the comics market in this respect: The coin market is made of gold/silver etc. These metals are traded on the stock exchanges and therefore, the coins' values are loosely and indirectly tied to the value of it's metal.

 

Not true. This only applies to bullion coins. That St. Gauden's $20 gold coin that sold for $7.6 million has less than $400 worth of gold in it. When you get to slabbed, high-grade rare coins, the bullion content is a negligible part of the equation. Many of these coins have no bullion content at all.

 

Gene

[Marvelous]

As someone else said in these threads 70 yo man who collects coins doesn't look at an old mercury dime and reminisce about the time he spent that exact same dime on a soda as a kid 60 years ago.

 

And as many others have said on here, sportscards are a nostalgia-based collectible, and sometimes even more potent than comics.

 

When I'm searching through sportscards for relatives I sometimes see a baseball card I used to really like, and many times this evokes cherished memories, like George Brett crushing that Gossage fastball to end the Yankees hopes.

 

In terms of Americana, baseball and sportscards have a much greater nostalgic pull than comics ever will or ever did, but those of us insulated in our little "comic book world" would naturally fail to see this.

 

I think baseball collectors are nostalgic for the player on the card and not the card itself. I comic fanboy is nostalgic about the comic itself, the art, the writing, the character, what were you doing the first time you read a certain comic, fantasies about having the powers of their favorite hero etc... I just don't think you can equate comics to baseball cards, coins, or anything else. Apples and oranges IMHO.

[joe_collector]

Many of these coins have no bullion content at all.

 

Yep, and it would be like Coinees coming in here stating that the CGC market is based upon the inherent recycle value of the newsprint.

[qualitycomix]

That's why I said loosely and indirectly. It doesn't apply to the stratospheric coins.

 

My statement that investors have less resistance to buying coins over comics is a valid one.

[joe_collector]

I think baseball collectors are nostalgic for the player on the card and not the card itself. I comic fanboy is nostalgic about the comic itself, the art, the writing, the character, what were you doing the first time you read a certain comic, fantasies about having the powers of their favorite hero etc... I just don't think you can equate comics to baseball cards, coins, or anything else. Apples and oranges IMHO.

 

Exactly what I said: "... but those of us insulated in our little "comic book world" would naturally fail to see this."

[Marvelous]

3 MILLIONTH coin!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? How many comics have CGC graded to date? 500K? (Valiantman . . . Valiantman . . . )

 

You do realize that coin grading stated up in the late-80's and CGC commenced operations in 2000?

 

Do that math and then mention its "lack of relevance to comics".

 

JC - let's do some math then. Let's assume that the article was written in 1995 (I'm too lazy to look it up).

 

Then let's say that coin grading started in "late-80s" let's say 1985? So in 10 years they graded 3mm coins? Do you want to say that that averages 300K in a year? Now let's look at that same number for CGC. I will be you that the coin number will be a lot higher.

 

DAM

 

I think the better question to ask is 'how many comics are CGC worthy?' Are there 3 million comics that are worth the expense of having them CGC'd? Isn't there is a finite number of comics worth being CGC'd especially GA, SA, and BA? That well is going to run dry eventually and CGC will have to depend on people having to reslab their existing CGC comics every 7 years because of the micro-chamber paper needs replaced to make their money.