1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[qualitycomix]

I agree with this. 1968 - 1974 books are plentiful in ultra high grade for the most part.

[drbanner]

BTW does anyone have the figures on what portion of CGCs business is current new moderns being slabbed and what portion is pre-90s? I don't know, but would guess the number of new comics getting slabbed is a very high percentage of their business.

 

I asked a similar question of Valiantman last week (it was regarding the number of "new" moderns vs. "new" pre-74 books in the last census) and here's what he had to say:

 

CGC Census numbers - 1/8/2004 update - (compared to 11/11/2003)

Modern (1975 - present): 192,493 submissions (+9,451; +5.2%)

non-Modern (1974 and earlier): 184,532 submissions (+6,178; +3.5%)

 

Like you, I was surprised to see that moderns were only about 60% of the "new" books on the census? An on-the-surface analysis of the total data compared to the "new" data shows that pre-75 subs may be slowing down relative to moderns...

 

And 5 (more) stars to Valiantman for more hard data!

[davidking623]

Another Crash Thread Cool! Now its down to the hours instead of the days between them! ANOTHER CRASH THREAD COMING UP IN HOURS WOW KEEP ME POSTED!

 

Davidking623

[Marvelous]

Let's run some numbers then:

 

Assumptions

1- look just a 4 Marvel Age books up to the dawn of the Bronze Age: ASM (100 issues), Daredevel (80 issues), FF (100 issues), Avengers (100 issues). I picked these as 4 books likely better-preserved than most, and with round numbers of issues published during the Silver/Marvel Age.

 

2- assume average print run across this period of 300,000

 

3- assume half the above were returned unsold

 

4- here it gets tricky: Assume 1/2 of 1% (.005, or 1 book out of 200) of the sold copies survives in 9.4 or better. This is anyone's guess-- feel free to substitute your own guess.

 

ASM (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

F.F. (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

Avg. (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

D.D. (80 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

 

That gives you 285,000 potential CGC 9.4 specimens, just from these 4 titles alone, disregarding all Golden Age, all DCs, all Bronze Age, and all other Marvels apart from these 4!

 

So sure, knock down my 1 book out of 200 is 9.4 assumption. Use your own figure, but then start to add back in X-Men, Captain America, Thor, JLA, Green Lantern, etc. etc. etc. You could easily get to 3 million with a few dozen titles, even taking a much more conservative assumption for surviving high grade.

 

I wouldn't doubt you could get 3 million CGC 9.4s. The question is whether or not they are worthy to be CGC'd?. My guess is that not too many people are running to get their non-key lame story or art comics of those titles graded and never will.

 

Lets get example of a popular run like the Hulk.

 

There are 206 Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 and above.

 

There are 3 Hulk #187 CGC 9.4 and above.

 

One is obviously more worthy than the other to be graded at this point in time.

[Marvelous]

BTW does anyone have the figures on what portion of CGCs business is current new moderns being slabbed and what portion is pre-90s? I don't know, but would guess the number of new comics getting slabbed is a very high percentage of their business.

 

I asked a similar question of Valiantman last week (it was regarding the number of "new" moderns vs. "new" pre-74 books in the last census) and here's what he had to say:

 

CGC Census numbers - 1/8/2004 update - (compared to 11/11/2003)

Modern (1975 - present): 192,493 submissions (+9,451; +5.2%)

non-Modern (1974 and earlier): 184,532 submissions (+6,178; +3.5%)

 

Like you, I was surprised to see that moderns were only about 60% of the "new" books on the census? An on-the-surface analysis of the total data compared to the "new" data shows that pre-75 subs may be slowing down relative to moderns...

 

And 5 (more) stars to Valiantman for more hard data!

 

Great data! Kudos to Valiantman!

 

I honestly don't understand why people are submitting that many moderns for slabbing. Hope they know what they are doing.

[drbanner]

Another Crash Thread Cool! Now its down to the hours instead of the days between them! ANOTHER CRASH THREAD COMING UP IN HOURS WOW KEEP ME POSTED!

 

Davidking623

 

How long do you take for lunch!?!?

[FlComicFan]

sure excellent point which bring me to ask if there are 206 Hulk 181 already slabbed 9.4 or better with we can all agree some more waiting to be slabbed the there should be similar #'s for 182,183,184 etc These havent been sent in because for the most part its not worth it dollar wise. So............... why is that when one of these common non-key issues pops up people pay multiples of guide? Ok Hulk 181 has very popular first appearance of Wolverine Bronze Age wise its a mega key Rare its not but there are a lot of folks who grew up reading X-Men and its coveted by them to have a sharp NM copy. Price is high but demand is high too. Now I'm sure there are a number of Hulk afficionados who are trying to build a NM set but enought to keep demand for common issues at multiples of guide? My 2 cents is wait on the common non keys and you will get them a hell of a lot cheaper than right now. The .5% survivability in NM 9.4 or better is probably too low. I'll have to dig back and see what Hulk was selling in 1974 I'm going to guess 175,000-200,000 paid copies We have 206 copies+ with more to come thats more like 1% +

[joe_collector]

My guess is that not too many people are running to get their non-key lame story or art comics of those titles graded and never will.

 

Lets get example of a popular run like the Hulk.

 

There are 206 Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 and above.

 

There are 3 Hulk #187 CGC 9.4 and above.

 

One is obviously more worthy than the other to be graded at this point in time.

 

Oh man, you are too much. The reason Hulk 181 has a ton of graded copies IS NOT because it's worthy, but because crack-baby speculators are addicted to paying nosebleed prices for the book.

 

P.S. the actual Hulk 181 story and art components are horrendous, and if Wolverine had not become popular, we'd be using that comic to line birdcages.

[joe_collector]

I honestly don't understand why people are submitting that many moderns for slabbing. Hope they know what they are doing.

 

Keep in mind that CGC's "Modern Tier" also encompasses a huge portion of Bronze comics like X-Men 94, GS X-men 1, etc.

[delekkerste]

Just another reason the comic and coin markets can be compared.

 

Very true. This "non-comparability" argument that some are trying to make strikes me as being from a very comic-centric view of the world, as if other hobbies couldn't possibly be as important, artistic or inspire the passion that comics do. Of course there are big differences between coins and comics, but there are also a lot of major similarities as well, whether we as comic fans want to acknowledge them or not.

 

There are basic underlying factors that drive all competitive markets (supply, demand, emotions, etc.) making comparability across different markets very relevant. The comics vs. coins comparison is not so far off at all; comics vs. sportscards even less so. Sure, comics vs. stocks or real estate requires you to think out of the box a bit, but hopefully we as comic readers have enough imagination to do so.

 

Gene

[FlComicFan]

but has there been a more popular character than Wolverine created since 1974? 30 years of comics he is probably the most popular "new"character Would I pay $2000+ for a 9.4 of the book Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeellllllll No but thats me I can sympathise with people who were weaned on the X-Men and love him enough to fork over the dough even though its a cheesy filler story with some funky Trimpe artwork

[Marvelous]

sure excellent point which bring me to ask if there are 206 Hulk 181 already slabbed 9.4 or better with we can all agree some more waiting to be slabbed the there should be similar #'s for 182,183,184 etc These havent been sent in because for the most part its not worth it dollar wise. So............... why is that when one of these common non-key issues pops up people pay multiples of guide? Ok Hulk 181 has very popular first appearance of Wolverine Bronze Age wise its a mega key Rare its not but there are a lot of folks who grew up reading X-Men and its coveted by them to have a sharp NM copy. Price is high but demand is high too. Now I'm sure there are a number of Hulk afficionados who are trying to build a NM set but enought to keep demand for common issues at multiples of guide? My 2 cents is wait on the common non keys and you will get them a hell of a lot cheaper than right now. The .5% survivability in NM 9.4 or better is probably too low. I'll have to dig back and see what Hulk was selling in 1974 I'm going to guess 175,000-200,000 paid copies We have 206 copies+ with more to come thats more like 1% +

 

I guess if non-keys are that plentiful it would make more sense right now for someone to buy HG raw non-keys and submit them to CGC themselves instead of paying multiple X guide nosebleed prices for and already slabbed non-key that comes up on Ebay or whereever.

 

I wonder if there is anybody here who are strictly non-key collectors/speculators? People that stay away from the crazy hype of Hulk #181 and instead go for affordable raw Hulk #187 etc... knowing that eventually they will be able to cash in when the demand shifts from Hulk #181 elsewhere.

[Fan4Fan]

P.S. the actual Hulk 181 story and art components are horrendous, and if Wolverine had not become popular, we'd be using that comic to line birdcages.

 

Which always makes me wonder... Were Wolverine and the New X-Men purely adored by denizens of metropolitan areas?

 

When I was a wee lad and had about 10 or so friends collecting comics, we stayed away from X-Men (old and new) with a vengance. We just weren't interested at all.

 

When this yellow-clad freak showed up in Hulk, it was like... ho hum... this guy is really lame.

 

But... we were just a bunch of farm-boys from Wisconsin (so we would have been all over a black-and-grey clad mutant called Badger ).

 

So, I've always been curious if the appeal of mutants was an urban/suburban thing and (since those are obviously areas of greater population density) if the disdain/disinterest I and my cohorts felt was something shared by other folks sired in the sticks.

 

Thanks,

Fan4Fan

[Zonker]

I wouldn't doubt you could get 3 million CGC 9.4s. The question is whether or not they are worthy to be CGC'd?.

 

Ok, I see... I thought you meant worthy = CGC 9.4 or better, therefore a question of supply.

 

Instead, you meant worthy = in demand. That gets us back off the supply side to the demand side, back to the realm of shifting fashion, trends, fads, tastes, demographics. We'll all continue to go round and round on that... in summary, who really knows what future generations will deem "worthy?"

[Marvelous]

I honestly don't understand why people are submitting that many moderns for slabbing. Hope they know what they are doing.

 

Keep in mind that CGC's "Modern Tier" also encompasses a huge portion of Bronze comics like X-Men 94, GS X-men 1, etc.

 

True. Maybe, Valiantman or someone else that knows has the numbers for modern 1990s to present so we can compare. Even if just 25% of CGCs business is 1990+ moderns that is still waaaaaay too much in my opinion. Or maybe those people investing in them know something I don't.

[joe_collector]

When I was a wee lad and had about 10 or so friends collecting comics, we stayed away from X-Men (old and new) with a vengance. We just weren't interested at all.

 

It's been said before, but Wolverine and the New X-Men would have gone nowhere if Byrne didn't come on board. At that point, Wolverine became his "pet character", the whole "healing factor/adamantium skeleton" backstory was developed, sales crept up slowly, and by the end of his run, Hulk 181 was a key issue, and X-Men was well on its way to stardom.

[Fan4Fan]

When I was a wee lad and had about 10 or so friends collecting comics, we stayed away from X-Men (old and new) with a vengance. We just weren't interested at all.

 

It's been said before, but Wolverine and the New X-Men would have gone nowhere if Byrne didn't come on board. At that point, Wolverine became his "pet character", the whole "healing factor/adamantium skeleton" backstory was developed, sales crept up slowly, and by the end of his run, Hulk 181 was a key issue, and X-Men was well on its way to stardom.

 

OK, that probably explains it for me.

 

We were all pretty much out of comics by the time Byrne had picked up a full head of steam.

 

His early Avengers work wasn't our favorite (compared to Perez), he had yet to be on FF (tho' he killed my interest in that once and for all). I do recall liking his Marvel Team-Up and Two-In-One issues, tho'....

 

Thanks,

Fan4Fan

[Aman619]

I cant believe there were 60 posts since last night and not ONE even mentioned my Lint Crash story. Im crestfallen. I hope ALL your comics Crash and Burn!

[sfilosa]

Quick Hits:

 

1) My guess is that rarity in comics and rarity in coins are two different animals. There are lots of books that I want where there is only one or two copies in 8.0 or higher. I honestly do not expect huge quantities of these books to come to market.

 

2) Other than NM books, there HAS NOT been a tremendous increase in the average book over the past 10 years. Yes, they have gone up but most NM- and lesser books probably have only gone up 7-8% annually. That is NOT a UNREALISTIC INCREASE.

 

3) Lastly, COMIC BOOKS are by far the HARDEST collectible to grade. They are truly three dimentional and have many more possible defects than coins or cards. Therefore, CGC not only helped provide liquidity but actually performed a true service (i.e. identifying overgraded and restored books).

[davidking623]

Another Crash Thread Cool! Now its down to the hours instead of the days between them! ANOTHER CRASH THREAD COMING UP IN HOURS WOW KEEP ME POSTED!

 

Davidking623

 

How long do you take for lunch!?!?

 

Apparantly to long, now we very well might be down to minutes instead of hours!

YEAH THAT ROCKS!

 

Davidking623